EPS Growth Projection

Transcription

1 Ann Cuneaz Education Program Manager BetterInvesting August 28, 2012 The information in this presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, mutual funds, or other securities that may be referenced. The securities of companies referenced or featured in the seminar materials are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by BetterInvesting TM National Association of Investors Corporation ( BI ). The views expressed are those of the instructors, commentators, guests and participants, as the case may be, and do not necessarily represent those of BetterInvesting TM. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision. Securities discussed may be held by the instructors in their own personal portfolios or in those of their clients. BI presenters and volunteers are held to a strict code of conduct that precludes benefiting financially from educational presentations or public activities via any BetterInvesting programs, events and/or educational sessions in which they participate. Any violation is strictly prohibited and should be reported to the CEO of BetterInvesting or the Director of Chapter Relations. This presentation may contain images of websites and products or services not endorsed by BetterInvesting. The presenter is not endorsing or promoting the use of these websites, products or services. This session is being recorded for future use. 2 EPS Growth Projection Review making EPS growth projections (the un-preferred way) Introduction to the Income Statement The Preferred Procedure The calculations Using the Preferred Procedure in the BetterInvesting Online SSG Guidelines for judgments Projected EPS used to calculate projected high price 3 4 1

2 Review the historical growth Evaluate most recent growth trend Find out what company is projecting Check what analysts are estimating Warning: Use as guideline only! Apply BetterInvesting guidelines EPS growth rate no higher than Sales growth rate EPS growth rate no higher than 20%, or your own (lower) personal limit 5 6 Summarizes sales and expenses for a period of time Connects sales to earnings Top line Sales Bottom line Earnings per share 7 8 2

3 Revenue $ 1000 Expenses $ 800 Pre-tax profit $ 200 Taxes $ 60 Preferred div d $ 10 Net income $ 130 No. of shares 100 Earnings per sh $ 1.30 Revenue $ 1000 Expenses $ 800 Pre-tax profit $ % of sales Taxes $ 60 30% tax rate Preferred div d $ 10 Net income $ 130 No. of shares 100 Earnings per sh $ AAPL CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In millions, except share amounts which are reflected in thousands and per share amounts) AAPL CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In millions, except share amounts which are reflected in thousands and per share amounts)

4 AAPL CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS (In AAPL millions, except Expenses share amounts which are reflected in thousands and per share amounts) Pre-tax Profit Margin = Earnings Before Taxes Sales Pre-tax Profit Margin (PTPM) = 34, , = 31.6% 14 For every $1 of sales, Apple... earns 32 of profit before taxes spends 68 on various expenses Calculates future earnings, based on the revenue projection Creates an expected income statement 5 years into the future Connects future sales to future earnings A second opinion for initial EPS growth projection

5 Need 5-year projections for: 1) Revenues 2) Pre-tax profit margin (%) 3) Tax rate (%) 4) Preferred dividends paid (if any) 5) Number of shares outstanding Projected revenue Multiply by projected PTP margin = Pre-tax profit Subtract projected taxes = Net income Subtract preferred dividends = Income avail. to common shareholders Divide by projected # of shares = Projected earnings per share Historical Revenue $ 1000 Pre-tax profit margin 20 % Tax rate 30 % Preferred dividend $ 10 Number of shares 100 Number of shares Projections 15 % growth 22 % 30 % $ $2011 Projected revenue ($ ) Multiply by 22% projected PTP margin = $442 Pre-tax profit Subtract $133 projected taxes (30% of PTP) = $309 Net income Subtract $10 preferred dividends = $299 Income avail. to common sh Divide by 110 projected shares = $2.72 Projected EPS

6 Revenue $ 2011 Expenses $ 1569 Pre-tax profit $ % of sales Taxes $ % tax rate Preferred div d $ 10 Net income $ 299 No. of shares 110 Earnings per sh $ Scroll Down

7 25 26 Expected (projected) Income Statement for Apple

8 Instead of 2 projections... Sales growth rate Earnings growth rate 1) Sales growth rate 2) PTP margin (%) 3) Tax rate (%) 4) Preferred dividends 5) Number of shares outstanding Sales growth often more regular and predictable than earnings growth Tax rates don t tend to change much Most companies don t have preferred stock Focus on sales growth, % PTP, and number of shares Forces us to think about how a company makes money and will grow Understand the business model Increases confidence in earnings projection Earnings growth based on applying logic to what you know about the business Reduces reliance on analysts

9 Guidelines to Judgment on the Preferred Procedure Price quantity = sales To increase sales Increase price Increase quantity Or some combination Know and understand products of company you are studying New customers New sales locations New uses New products New promotions Review historical sales growth Steady? Note most recent trends Listen to management - what are they projecting? Annual report Conference calls

10 Check Value Line s Growth Estimates Value Line commentary Analyst Consensus sus Estimates Short term: one to two years Finance.yahoo.com is one source Morningstar report Long term sales growth estimates may be reported in the Valuation, Growth, and Profitability section You can t have sales without generating expenses Types of expenses Cost of goods sold Selling expenses General and administrative expenses Research and Development expenses Financing costs Review the historical trend Look for steady, or increasing margins Has management kept costs under control?

11 41 42 Check your estimated PTP margin against what Value Line is predicting Value Line projects Net Profit Margin Income Tax Rate Calculate projected PTP margin = Net Profit Margin / (1 - Tax Rate)

12 Pre-tax Profit Margin = Net Profit Margin (1 Tax Rate) = 29.4 (1 -.25) = 39.2 PTP Margin Value Line commentary Annual report Morningstar report PTP margins are rising Anticipating margin improvement requires a business reason In a competitive environment, holding margins steady may be the best management can do Oops Can we assume the trend will continue?

13 PTP margins are rising Limited control by management Consider historical data Oops Can we assume the trend will continue? Typical tax rates are % for U.S. companies Check VL estimate AAPL Few companies have preferred stock Preferred dividends reported by VL in capital structure box Typically, dividends don t change, unless new preferred stock issued Use most recent Preferred Dividend paid PG

14 Common Shares Outstanding Shares of common stock currently held by shareholders This value is reported as part of the integrated historical stock data (data supplied by Morningstar for BetterInvesting) These are NOT diluted shares Share repurchases Announcements don t mean it will happen Sometimes the net effect is zero History often the best guide VL reports up to 16 years of data BetterInvesting data includes 10 years Consider Value Line s projection Use caution if projection is contrary to the historical trend Rarely yproject number of shares to go down And only with a VERY good reason

15 More shares are issued Conversion of dilutive securities into shares of stock Employee stock options Convertible bonds (debt) Consider dilution when estimating future number of shares. We evaluate diluted EPS on the SSG Be sure to use diluted share assumptions in preferred procedure calculation to project diluted EPS 5 years in the future Diluted EPS = Net profit # of Diluted Shares What is Value Line Projecting? Check SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q) Diluted EPS = Net Profit ## Diluted Shares ## Diluted Shares = Net Profit Diluted EPS = = 975 Million Diluted Shares

16 IBM Diluted EPS = Net Profit # Diluted Shares # Diluted Shares = Net Profit Diluted EPS = 21, = 1085 Million Diluted Shares Update Your Study

17 Too Conservative? Est. Sales Growth 14% Est. EPS Growth 14% % EPS growth is reasonable only if higher %PTP is realized. Your research will help define reasonable projections

18 Check Preferred Procedure calculation for Second Opinion of future earnings growth. Soon your Second Opinion will become second nature, and your SSG won t be complete without it. Preferred Procedure projecting very different future EPS than your initial estimate? Review judgments to reconcile differences Remember - It s your Money! Thank you for attending! Estimating EPS Using the Preferred Procedure Ann Cuneaz annc@betterinvesting.org 71 18