The ART of Judgment. BetterInvesting Online Education Series 1

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Ann Cuneaz Education Program Manger BetterInvesting July 26, 2012 The information in this presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell

The securities of companies referenced or featured in the seminar materials are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by

The views expressed are those of the instructors, commentators, guests and participants, as the case may be, and do not necessarily represent those of BetterInvesting TM.

1 Ann Cuneaz Education Program Manger BetterInvesting July 26, 2012 The information in this presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, mutual funds, or other securities that may be referenced. The securities of companies referenced or featured in the seminar materials are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by BetterInvesting TM National Association of Investors Corporation ( BI ). The views expressed are those of the instructors, commentators, guests and participants, as the case may be, and do not necessarily represent those of BetterInvesting TM. Investors should conduct their own review and analysis of any company of interest before making an investment decision. Securities discussed may be held by the instructors in their own personal portfolios or in those of their clients. BI presenters and volunteers are held to a strict code of conduct that precludes benefiting financially from educational presentations or public activities via any BetterInvesting programs, events and/or educational sessions in which they participate. Any violation is strictly prohibited and should be reported to the CEO of BetterInvesting or the Director of Chapter Relations. This presentation may contain images of websites and products or services not endorsed by BetterInvesting. The presenter is not endorsing or promoting the use of these websites, products or services. This session is being recorded for future use. 2 Review what is a quality stock? Identify the key judgments on the SSG Things to consider Future growth Future valuation (P/Es) Dividends No investment t recommendation made Evaluate and Understand what has happened in the past Utilize standard investment research to assess the future expectations Put it all together to forecast what might happen in the future

Essential skill Personal - reflects your own

experience No amount of diligence can completely

Evaluate quality BEFORE making any future

consistent sales and EPS growth Straight, t,

2 Essential skill Personal - reflects your own comfort zone Confidence builds with time and experience No amount of diligence can completely avoid some disasters in our portfolios. Evaluate quality BEFORE making any future projections If quality standards not met, don t bother! Remember the barbed-wire fence 5 6 Look for consistent sales and EPS growth Straight, t, parallel a lines, sloping up to the right Railroad tracks Does the graph look more like a roller coaster? If so, REJECT it! Focus on HIGH quality

Profit margins should be steady or increasing KEY measure of

better to buy a GOOD company at a FAIR price than to buy a FAIR

.. % Earned on Equity or ROE should be steady or rising Look for

Manageable level of debt Generally, less than 33% of

3 Profit margins should be steady or increasing KEY measure of management effectiveness Compare to others in same industry It s better to buy a GOOD company at a FAIR price than to buy a FAIR company at a GOOD price... % Earned on Equity or ROE should be steady or rising Look for ROE at least 15% Great companies achieve ROE 20% or higher Manageable level of debt Generally, less than 33% of capitalization 9 10 This is the first place we use our knowledge of the company to make a projection. 5 YEARS AHEAD HISTORY 12 3

Review historical growth Look for steady, consistent growth What are the most recent trends?

Most recent = Most relevant Historical Sales Growth 10 year: 7.3 % 5 year: 9.9 % Recent Q: 13.

7 % 13 14 Historical Sales Growth 10 year: 82.6 % 5 year: 27.0 % Recent Q: 26.

results are one indication of future performance Historical EPS Growth 10 year: 96.

4 Review historical growth Look for steady, consistent growth What are the most recent trends? Check the growth over 10 years, 5 years, 2 years What is the most recently reported growth? Most recent = Most relevant Historical Sales Growth 10 year: 7.3 % 5 year: 9.9 % Recent Q: 13.9 % Historical EPS Growth 10 year: 12.0 % 5 year: 12.5 % Recent Q: 11.7 % Historical Sales Growth 10 year: 82.6 % 5 year: 27.0 % Recent Q: 26.6 % SSG graphs presents how company has performed in the PAST Steady and consistent past results are one indication of future performance Historical EPS Growth 10 year: 96.3 % 5 year: 26.8 % Recent Q: -9.1 % Make your forward-looking judgments based on more than a good looking SSG on more than a good looking SSG

To understand future growth, must understand d how

If you're prepared p to invest in a company, then

language that a fifth grader could understand, Peter

What factors contributed to the growth of sales in

How will the company grow sales in the future?

face? Are there any problems in the company or

5 To understand future growth, must understand d how the company makes money now. If you're prepared p to invest in a company, then you ought to be able to explain why in simple language that a fifth grader could understand, Peter Lynch What does the company do to make money? What factors contributed to the growth of sales in the past? How will the company grow sales in the future? What are the competitive challenges the company may face? Are there any problems in the company or industry? Expand customer base Create new products or services to sell Expand territory Acquisition Create promotions Raise prices

EPS can grow faster than sales Expenses are reduced Buy back

slower than sales Competition forces reduced prices Increased

Preferred Procedure to evaluate these factors Company s Website

yahoo.com www.morningstar.com Money.msn.

library for FREE online access to these reports 21 22 You have to

6 EPS can grow faster than sales Expenses are reduced Buy back shares More sales of higher profit margin products EPS can grow slower than sales Competition forces reduced prices Increased expenses Shares of stock are issued (i.e. stock options) Use Preferred Procedure to evaluate these factors Company s Website Company Annual Report Financial web sites news and more Finance.yahoo.com Money.msn.com Value Line, S&P or Morningstar Reports Check your local library for FREE online access to these reports You have to do the homework!! Finance.yahoo.com Quick access to company web site Plus a short business summary on Profile page

Section for Investors Use site map if hard to find Annual

Conference call audio or transcripts Request for printed

Projections Sales and EPS Rates box and 3-5 year

25 26 Extensive commentary on future growth drivers

sales growth projection Evaluate historical growth Do

estimates but make your own decision Consider analyst

7 Section for Investors Use site map if hard to find Annual report (10-K) Presentations for investment conferences Conference call audio or transcripts Request for printed material Commentary Note growth drivers and risks Projections Sales and EPS Rates box and 3-5 year projection in annual data Profit Margin Average P/E Price Extensive commentary on future growth drivers Presents Bull AND Bear case Often provides long-term sales growth projection Evaluate historical growth Do othe research eseac Make your best estimate Check analyst estimates but make your own decision Consider analyst estimates as an upper limit Be aware: analysts change their estimates ALL THE TIME

8 Analyst Consensus Estimate % Short term projections (1 to 2 years) Short and long-term projections

9 Not a substitute for your own judgment! Not a substitute for your own judgment! Calculating at the sustainable ab growth rate will help ep determine how much the company can grow using earnings reinvested in the company, without finding other funding sources. This is an aid determine future EPS growth rates!

10 The rate at which a company can grow without additional funding = ROE (5 year average) x Earnings Retention Rate Earnings Retention Rate The percentage of earnings that are retained to grow the business) = (100% - %Payout) We know what percent the company pays out as dividends (SSG Part 3: % Payout) Earnings Retention Rate = 1 - % Payout Note: Convert % Payout to a decimal first. If a company pays 40% of it s earnings as a dividend it retains 60% to grow the business Sustainable Growth Rate EPS retained to grow (retention rate 85%) EPS paid out as dividend (payout ratio 15%) ROE x (1- Payout Ratio) = 39.6 x ( ) = 28.9% Whole Pie = 100% of company earnings *

If NO dividend, then Sustainable Growth Rate = ROE To grow faster than the Sustainable Growth Rate, need to raise more capital Issue Shares (dilution) Borrow money Do your research Consider analyst

com) Do not estimate growth higher than the sustainable growth rate 41 42 In general, estimate EPS growth rate no higher than Sales growth rate For EPS to grow faster than sales, must either cut

11 If NO dividend, then Sustainable Growth Rate = ROE To grow faster than the Sustainable Growth Rate, need to raise more capital Issue Shares (dilution) Borrow money Do your research Consider analyst consensus estimates (ACE) Finance.yahoo.com Money.msn.com BI data includes ACE estimates for EPS (Source: Zacks.com) Do not estimate growth higher than the sustainable growth rate In general, estimate EPS growth rate no higher than Sales growth rate For EPS to grow faster than sales, must either cut costs or reduce the # of shares. Cannot continue forever Limit growth rates to 15% - 20% Very few companies consistently grow at 15% Projections over 15% rarely made Growth rates of even the best companies will eventually decline. Life Cycle of A Successful Company Speculation Explosive Growth th Mature Growth Best Investment Opportunity Stabilization D Decline Startup Break Even Point

12 Is the stock trading at a reasonable price? Most challenging judgment Subject to investor psychology and mood of the market Focus on the long term trends and outlook 46 Many factors will affect the P/E Company quality Higher quality rewarded with higher P/Es Growth expectations Industry expectations Beyond the fundamentals Economy expectations Mood of the market Average = 16.4 Source:

13 Pay attention to the trends Our goal select ect P/E values to reasonably ab represent the future high average and low average P/Es

14 Past growth and future expectations P/Es go down in anticipation of lower growth I It s all related

15 Not much sign of those lower P/Es... Historically, P/Es over 25 are considered high When it seems it is different this time, it probably isn t WMT P/Es Market Bubble? Except... Current Price Earnings Ratio WMT Current P/E =

Earnings Growth P/E expansion Find investments that offer both for the best returns Buy growth companies when the current P/E is low and it s reasonable to expect the P/E to go up in the future

More recent data is more relevant Do not estimate future P/Es higher than the historical average (or the adjusted average) Look at 10 years of data to identify if P/E trends 61 62 Limit the high P/E

16 Earnings Growth P/E expansion Find investments that offer both for the best returns Buy growth companies when the current P/E is low and it s reasonable to expect the P/E to go up in the future Carefully consider the historical data. Fairly consistent or widely varied? Pay attention to trends Does all the recent data fit? More recent data is more relevant Do not estimate future P/Es higher than the historical average (or the adjusted average) Look at 10 years of data to identify if P/E trends Limit the high P/E to 30 P/Es of 30+ are considered high and are not maintained for long Average P/E of S&P 500 is about 16 Check Value Line s average P/E estimate Outside influences can have a long term effect Market sentiment Economic cycle Set reasonable expectations The Other Part of Total Return 63 16

17 Total return consists of 2 parts Price appreciation Yield Estimate future %payout to estimate future dividend yield Historical data presented in SSG section 3 or Determine 5 Year Potential Tab in Online SSG Apply Your Judgment! Adjust Avg %Payout to 30% Current %Payout = 35% 1.20 (Div)/ (TTM EPS) Reasonable estimate of expected dividend yield

Dividends are projected to add a little more than 1% to the total return

dividends are a warning sign Adjust for changes in dividend policy Short

18 Quarterly dividend of $2.65 is about 25% payout (using current EPS) Company plans to initiate a quarterly dividend of $2.65 per share sometime in the fourth quarter of its fiscal Dividends are projected to add a little more than 1% to the total return 70 Review historical payout Look for consistent %payout Decreasing dividends are a warning sign Adjust for changes in dividend policy Short history of paying dividends policy is under development New dividend payer Projected yield will be small part of total return, but it pays to keep an eye on the dividends

Do the research to make informed, effective decisions Make your judgments based on facts Don t force the numbers trust your judgments and believe what the SSG

19 Do the research to make informed, effective decisions Make your judgments based on facts Don t force the numbers trust your judgments and believe what the SSG tells you Not a buy? Add to your watch list and wait for a buying opportunity Thank you for attending! The ART of Judgment Ann Cuneaz annc@betterinvesting.org

EPS Growth Projection

EPS Growth Projection Ann Cuneaz Education Program Manager BetterInvesting August 28, 2012 The information in this presentation is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell