Highlight & Recent Developments MYTILINEOS SIGNS AN AGREEMENT FOR A NEW POWER PLANT IN LIBYA
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- Rosalyn Atkins
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1 Sector OVERVIEW 18/08/ Basic Materials Industry EPC, Metallurgy, Energy, Gas trading Mrk Cap Employees Last Trade 8.53 Price Range (52 week) Average Volume Shares Outstanding 142,891 Enterprise Value (Est) 2227,631 (thns) MYTILINEOS is one of Greece s leading industrial companies, with activities in Metallurgy, EPC, Electric Power and Gas Trading. MYTILINEOS is listed on the Athens Exchange since Today, the Company's stock is a constituent of the FTSE 25 Large Capitalization index. In the last years, The Company has significantly increased its turnover and profits, and its activities have substantially contributed to infrastructure creation across the country. MYTILINEOS is a global leader in the EPC sector (Engineering- Procurement-Construction) through METKA. The Company specializes in the construction of power plants from design and procurement through to construction and completion, and has achieved an unprecedented penetration in developing markets abroad, with projects concurrently underway in Europe, Turkey, the Middle East, Asia and North Africa, constituting it as one of Greece s leading exporting companies. Highlight & Recent Developments MYTILINEOS SIGNS AN AGREEMENT FOR A NEW POWER PLANT IN LIBYA MYTILINEOS PREVAILS IN INTERNATIONAL ARBITRATION AGAINST SERBIA REGARDING RTB BOR USD 40 MILLION COMPENSATION AWARDED NEW EPC PROJECT FOR FAST-TRACK LPG POWER PLANT IN GHANA
2 Assumptions Assumptions Capex 4,75% EBITDA Margin 16,00% ERM (Market Risk Premium) 5,40% beta 1,08 g 2,00% Risk Free (10y GGB) 5,60% Kd 3,10% K 11,76% Tax Rate 29% Dividend Tax Rate 15% Debt Tax Rate 10% Share Price as in 17/8/ 8,53 Number of Shares 142,891 Market Equity 1218,860 Share Float Shareholder Structure Evangelos Mytilineos ,10% Ioannis Mytilineos ,40% FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS ,00% FOREIGN INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ,00% DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS ,50% Retail ,00% Total % Free Float ,50%
3 Ratios Mrk Price as in 30/12/2016 6,15 Valuation 2016 Shares 142,89 P/E 14,35 Equity 989,38 P/BV 0,89 Earnings 61,24 EV/Sales 1,18 EV 1477,92 EV/EBITDA 6,72 Sales 1250,13 EV/EBIT 10,14 EBITDA 219,80 Net Debt/EBITDA 2,81 EBIT 145,71 Net Debt/Equity 0,51 DIVIDEND 0,00 Dividend yield 0,00 Per share Mrk Cap 878,78 EPS 0,43 Total Liabilities 1824,17 DPS 0,00 MINORITY 32,00 Current Assets 1257,03 Mrk Price as estimated 12,04 Valuation e Shares 142,891 P/E 21,78 Equity 930,06 P/BV 1,9 Earnings 79,01 EV/Sales 1,7 EV 2293, EV/EBITDA 10,6 Sales 1353,69703 EV/EBIT 15,1 EBITDA 216, Net Debt/EBITDA 2,3 EBIT 151, Net Debt/Equity 0,4 DIVIDEND 0 Dividend yield 0,0% Per share Mrk Cap 1720,62 EPS 0,553 Total Liabilities 1644,84 DPS 0 MINORITY 0 Current Assets 1072,34725 Ratios 2016 e Current Ratio 1,21 1,23 Gross Profit Margin 15,96% 17,31% ROA 4,69% 5,34% ROCE 2,95% 4,03% ROE 18,91% 23,96% Debt Ratio 19,89% 17,88% P/E 14,35 21,78 NI/Share e 0,55 P/E 21,78 Target Price 12,04 EBITDA e 216,59 EV/EBITDA 10,59 Target EV e 2293,11 Net Debt 507,01 Fair Value Equity 1786,09 Number of Shares 142,89 Target Price 12,50
4 Balance Sheet (thousands. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Cash & Cash Equivalent 181, , , , , , , , ,191 Inventories 128, , , , , , , , ,175 Trade Receivables/Απαιτήσεις από Πελάτες 564, , , , , , , , ,135 Other Receivables/Λοιπά κυκλοφορούντα περιουσιακά στοιχεία 107, , , , , , , , ,801 Financial assets at fair value through profit or loss 1,598 3,080 1,077 0,959 1,679 1,699 1,353 1,422 1,538 Derivatives 0,000 0,555 0,000 0,491 0,262 0,327 0,270 0,337 0,299 Current Assets 983,4 987,7 1061,2 1257,0 1072,3 1094,6 1121,3 1136,3 1106,1 % sales 70% 80% 77% 101% 79% 72% 69% 66% 60% Tangible Fixed Assets 1081, , , , , , , , ,250 Goodwill 209, , , , , , , , ,313 Intangible Assets 244, , , , , , , , ,724 Investments in Subsidiary Companies 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Investments in Associates 11,569 10,976 13,201 23,242 14,747 15,542 16,683 17,553 16,131 Other Investments 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 0,100 Deffered tax Receivables 86,270 88,762 83, ,012 90,099 91,056 91,629 93,699 91,620 Financial Assets Available for Sale 1,200 0,507 2,253 0,169 1,032 0,990 1,111 0,826 0,990 Other Long-term Receivables 38,728 79, , , , , , , ,823 Non Current Assets 1673, , , , , , , , ,951 % sales 119% 136% 133% 148% 130% 118% 112% 105% 98% Total Assets 2656,9 2680,7 2899,4 3108,4 2836,4 2881,2 2931,4 2939,4 2897,1 Liabilities & Equity Equity Share capital 125, , , , , , , , ,639 Share premium 210, , , , , , , , ,195 Fair value reserves -0,002-0,263 0,557-4,073-0,945-1,181-1,411-1,902-1,360 Other reserves 140, , , , , , , , ,112 Translation reserves -20,567-28,375-9,360-15,040-18,336-17,778-15,128-16,570-16,953 Retained earnings 401, , , , , , , , ,587 Equity attrubutable to parent's shareholders 856, , , , , , , , ,220 Non controlling Interest 233, , , , , , , , ,270 Equity 1090, , , , , , , , ,49 Non-Current Liabilities Long-term debt 435, , , , , , , , ,136 Derivatives 0,270 0,000 0,000 2,948 0,805 0,938 1,173 1,466 1,095 Deferred Tax Liability 169, , , , , , , , ,896 Liabilities for pension plans 17,924 18,560 18,734 18,583 18,450 18,582 18,587 18,551 18,542 Other long-term liabilities 150,272 72,467 90, , , , , , ,485 Provisions 18,622 15,512 14,791 13,913 15,710 14,981 14,849 14,863 15,101 Non-Cirrent Liabilities 791, , , , , , , , ,255 Current Liabilities Trade and other payables 468, , , , , , , , ,666 Tax payable 16,154 26,755 36,791 19,524 24,806 26,969 27,023 24,580 25,844 Short-term debt 91, , , , , , , , ,090 Current portion of non-current liabilities 164,668 42, , , , , , , ,906 Derivatives 1,293 4,949 3,392 6,930 4,141 4,853 4,829 5,188 4,753 Other payables 32,368 37,720 39,224 49,778 39,773 41,624 42,600 43,443 41,860 Current portion of non-current provisions 0,004 0,000 0,701 0,018 0,181 0,225 0,281 0,176 0,216 Current Liabilities 775, , , , , , , , ,334 Liabilites 1566, , , , , , , , ,589 Liabilities & Equity 2656,9 2680,7 2899,4 3108,4 2836,4 2881,2 2931,4 2939,3 2897,1
5 Estimated Financial Statment Profit & Loss (thousands. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Sales 1409, , , , , , , , ,378 % change -11,99% 11,82% -9,86% 8,28% 12,05% 6,88% 5,93% 6,65% Cost of Goods sold 1207, , , , ,3 1254,2 1340,4 1419,9 1514,3 % change -17,39% 16,52% -9,58% 6,54% 12,05% 6,88% 5,93% 6,65% Gross Profit 202,2 243,1 224,9 199,5 234,4 262,6 280,7 297,3 317,1 % change 20,23% -7,48% -11,30% 17,46% 12,05% 6,88% 5,93% 6,65% % margin 14,35% 19,60% 16,22% 15,96% 17,31% 17,31% 17,31% 17,31% 17,31% EBITDA 233, , , , ,6 242,7 259,4 274,8 293,0 % change 9,25% -9,54% -4,78% -1,46% 12,05% 6,88% 5,93% 6,65% % margin 16,57% 20,57% 16,64% 17,58% 16,00% 16,00% 16,00% 16,00% 16,00% Depreciation 67,111 57,781 61,266 74,086 65,1 64,5 66,2 67,5 65,8 EBIT 166, ,41 169, ,7 151,5 178,1 193,1 207,3 227,2 % change 18,59% -14,10% -14,07% 3,99% 17,56% 8,42% 7,32% 9,61% % margin 11,81% 15,92% 12,23% 11,66% 11,19% 11,74% 11,91% 12,07% 12,41% Financials 86,3 61,4 65,5 63,1 49,50 59,10 64,72 72,80 79,36 PBT 80, , ,078 82,6 102,0 119,0 128,4 134,5 147,8 % change 69,69% -23,50% -20,59% 23,45% 16,67% 7,88% 4,72% 9,93% % margin 5,69% 10,97% 7,50% 6,61% 7,54% 7,85% 7,92% 7,83% 8,07% Taxes/Other 19,7 22,6 28,4 21,4 23,0 23,9 24,2 23,1 23,5 Net Income (with minorities) 60,5 113,4 75,7 61,2 79,0 95,2 104,2 111,4 124,3 % change 87,38% -33,25% -19,10% 29,01% 20,46% 9,54% 6,82% 11,60% % margin 4,29% 9,14% 5,46% 4,90% 5,84% 6,27% 6,43% 6,48% 6,79% Estimated Cash Flows Cash Flows (Εκατ. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Net Income 60,5 113,408 75,699 61,2 79,0 95,2 104,2 111,4 124,3 Plus: Deprications & Amortizations 67,11 57,78 61,27 74,09 65,06 64,55 66,24 67,48 65,83 Plus: Δ Provisions 10,52-3,11-0,72-0,88 1,80-0,73-0,13 0,01 0,24 Plus: Payable Taxes 4,54 10,60 10,04-17,27 5,28 2,16 0,05-2,44 1,26 Gross Cash Flow 142,69 178,68 146,28 117,18 151,15 161,16 170,41 176,42 191,62 Plus: Δ Trade and other Payables -32,04 16,18 82,16 3,97-48,10 13,55 12,89-4,42-6,52 Less: Δ Trade Receivables -93, ,345 62, ,564-82, ,1 21,7 11,4-15,9 Less: Δ Other Receivables -2,311 4,1 38,6 59,7-65,1 9,3 10,6 3,6-10,4 Less: Δ Inventories -23,205 23,862 87,022 18,1-63, ,5 14,6-3,5-8,8 Δ Working Capital -87,36-145,52-106,48 194,41-162,67-1,82 34,10 16,00-28,60 Operating Cash Flow 230,06 324,20 39,80-77,23 313,81 162,98 136,31 160,41 220,21 Less: CAPEX (Fixed Assets) 57,97 54,59 44,88 90,76 64,33 72,09 77,04 81,61 87,04 Less: Δ Investments -1,215-0,593 2,225 10,041-8,495 0,794 1,141 0,870-1,422 Free Cash Flow 173,31 269,02-7,30-178,03 257,97 90,10 58,13 77,93 134,60 Less: Dividends ,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 0,16 Plus: Δ Equity -67,72 0,00-11,69 0,00 5,85-1,46-1,83 0,64 0,80 Pluss: Δ Debt -169,99-4,56 40,68 88,64-85,68 9,77 13,35 6,52-14,01 Δ Cash & Equivalents 45, , ,569-2,975 25,601 10,429-19,878 3,294 4,861 Cash & Equvalents 181, , , , , , , , ,191
6 Estimated Balance DCF (EUR thousands) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Revenues 1409, , , , , , , , ,378 EBITDA 233, , , , , , , , ,021 EBIT*(1- Tax Rate) 118, , , , , , , , ,303 CAPEX 57,966 54,588 44,881 90,755 64,335 72,085 77,043 81,611 87,036 Depreciations & Amortizations 67,111 57,781 61,266 74,086 65,061 64,549 66,240 67,484 65,833 CAPEX - Deoreciations -9,145-3,193-16,385 16,669-0,726 7,537 10,803 14,127 21,203 ΔWC -87, , , , ,667-1,824 34,099 16,004-28,597 Reinvestment -96, , , , ,394 5,712 44,902 30,131-7,394 Reinvestment (abs) 96, , , , ,394-5,712-44,902-30,131 7,394 Free Cash Flow 214, , , , , ,765 92, , , , , , , ,255 WACC 8,94% 9,52% 8,88% 8,54% 8,95% 8,96% 8,83% 8,82% 8,89% Discounted Period Discounted FCF 248,71 101,73 71,55 83,47 110,21 102,87 96,30 90,16 84,40 79,02 Discount Rate 91,8% 84,2% 77,6% 71,3% 65,3% 59,8% 54,9% 50,4% 46,2% 42,4% Υπολογισμός WACC (EUR εκατ.) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Cash & Equivalents 181, , , , , , , , ,191 Short Debt 256, , , , , , , , ,996 Long Debt 435, , , , , , , , ,136 Net Cash/(Debt), Current Loan Value 509, , , , , , , , ,941 Debt & Equity 1728, , , , , , , , ,801 WACC 8,94% 9,52% 8,88% 8,54% 8,95% 8,96% 8,83% 8,82% 8,89% FCFn 186,255 g 2,00% WACC 9% TV 2732,414 PV of TV 1159,208 g FCFn 2% 2026f
7 Methods Prices Weight DCF 12,04 50% P/E 12,04 25% EV/EBITDA 12,50 25% Average Price 12,16 Expected Return 42,51% PV Cash Flows 1068,423 PV of TV 1159,208 EV 2227,631 Net Debt 507,014 Fair Value Equity 1720,617 Number of Shares 142,891 Target Price 12,04 Price 8,53 Expected Return 41,17% BUY INCREASE HOLD DECREASE SELL Consensus DO IT DO IT DO IT DON'T DO IT DON'T DO IT
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