METOXOI TITANAS (TITK) 7 Νοεμβρίου 2017

Transcription

1 OVERVIEW 07/11/2017 Sector Construction & Materials Industry Buildings, Materials, Fixtures Mrk Cap Employees Last Trade Price Range (52 week) Average Volume 19,820 26,750 Shares Outstanding 142,891 Enterprise Value (Est) 2.230,698 (m) TITAN was founded in Greece in With its headquarters in Greece where the parent company has been listed on the Athens Stock Exchange since 1912 TITAN Group s vertically integrated activity spans 14 countries. This activity is carried out by wholly-owned affiliated companies and by joint ventures with other partners. It covers the production of cement, concrete, aggregates, mortars and other building materials; transportation - distribution of products; processing and industrial utilization of fly ash. Highlight & Recent Developments Titan Global Finance PLC intends to issue 250,000,000 Guaranteed Notes Titan Global Finance tender offer to holders of its outstanding guaranteed notes due July 2019 TITAN Group is included in the FTSE4Good Emerging Index for its enduring commitment to sustainable development

2 Assumptions Assumptions Capex 9,85% EBITDA Margin 22,53% ERM (Market Risk Premium) 5,40% beta 0,68 g 2,00% Risk Free (10y GGB) 5,09% Kd 3,50% K 9,05% Tax Rate 29% Dividend Tax Rate 15% Debt Tax Rate 10% Share Price as in 07/11/ ,31 Number of Shares 77,064 Market Cap 1565, Share Float Shareholders Structure EDYVEM DIMOSIA ETAIRIA LTD ,04% CANELLOPOULOS ANDREAS ,73% PAUL AND ALEXANDRA CANELL FUND ,96% CANELLOPOULOS LEONIDAS ,25% TITAN CEMENT COMPANY S.A ,01% Retail ,01% Total % Free Float %

3 Ratios Mrk Price as in 06/11/ ,31 Valuation 06/11/2017 Shares 77,06 P/E 12,29 Equity 1552,82 P/BV 1,01 Earnings 127,33 EV/Sales 1,44 EV 2177,39 EV/EBITDA 7,82 Sales 1509,15 EV/EBIT 93,85 EBITDA 278,60 Net Debt/EBITDA 2,37 EBIT 23,20 Net Debt/Equity 0,43 DIVIDEND 1,10 Dividend yield 0,05 EPS 1,65 Mrk Cap 1565,17 Total Liabilities 1236,96 MINORITY 0,00 Current Assets 624,74 Mrk Price as estimated 2017e 21,38 Valuation 2017e Shares 77,06 P/E 13,57 Equity 1606,13 P/BV 1,03 Earnings 121,45 EV/Sales 1,7 EV 2254,85 EV/EBITDA 7,6 Sales 1310,79 EV/EBIT 12,8 EBITDA 295,37 Net Debt/EBITDA 2,0 EBIT 175,96 Net Debt/Equity 1,34 DIVIDEND 0,45 Dividend yield 2,1% EPS 1,58 Mrk Cap 1647,85 Total Liabilities 1197,28 MINORITY 0 Current Assets 590,27 Ratios e Current Ratio 1,54 1,83 Gross Profit Margin 28,96% 32,13% ROA 4,56% 4,33% ROCE 5,34% 4,90% ROE 35,24% 33,61% Debt Ratio 23,68% 20,79% P/E 12,29 13,57 NI/Share 2017e 1,58 P/E 13,57 Target Price 21,38 EBITDA 2017e 295,37 EV/EBITDA 7,63 Target EV 2017e 2254,85 Net Debt 582,85 Fair Value Equity 1672,00 Number of Shares 77,06 Target Price 21,70

4 Balance Sheet (thousands. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f ASSETS Property, plant, and equipment 1.564, , , , , , , , ,39 Investment property 13,22 9,27 9,55 9,82 10,46 9,77 9,90 9,99 10,03 Intangible assets and goodwill 414,03 446,08 456,34 375,12 422,89 425,11 419,86 410,74 419,65 Investments in subsidiaries 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Investments in associates and joint ventures 77,25 86,53 82,51 170,80 104,27 111,03 117,15 125,82 114,57 Derivative financial instruments 0,00 0,00 0,00 1,39 0,35 0,43 0,54 0,68 0,50 Available-for-sale financial assets 1,57 1,41 1,21 1,07 1,31 1,25 1,21 1,21 1,24 Other non current assets 11,62 16,20 14,83 12,64 13,82 14,37 13,92 13,69 13,95 Deferred income tax asset 1,20 2,52 0,81 20,97 6,37 7,67 8,95 10,99 8,50 Non-current assets 2.083, , , , , , , , ,84 Inventories 221,38 275,77 286,79 248,92 258,22 267,43 265,34 259,98 262,74 Receivables and prepayments 172,76 157,45 167,15 196,11 173,37 173,52 177,53 180,13 176,14 Derivative financial instruments 1, ,00 0,78 0,39 0,39 0,39 0,49 Available-for-sale financial assets 0,06 0,06 2,11-0,75 0,97 1,28 1,00 1,00 Cash and cash equivalents 184,26 142,95 121,73 179,71 157,16 150,39 152,25 159,88 154,92 Current assets 580,02 576,23 577,78 624,74 590,27 592,70 596,79 601,38 595,28 TOTAL ASSETS 2.663, , , , , , , , ,12 EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Share Capital (shares 4) 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 338,53 Share Premium 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 22,83 Share stock options 3,97 1,62 1,81 2,98 2,59 2,25 2,41 2,56 2,45 Treasury Shares -87,68-83,63-79,08-101,45-87,96-88,03-89,13-91,64-89,19 Other reserves 293,30 939, ,30 839,36 772,37 892,14 880,30 846,04 847,71 Retained earnings 845,18 288,14 285,50 374,11 448,23 348,99 364,21 383,89 386,33 Equity attributable to holders of the parent 1.416, , , , , , , , ,66 Non-controlling interests 122,68 120,59 118,39 76,47 109,53 106,24 102,66 98,73 104,29 Total Equity (a) 1.538, , , , , , , , ,95 Long-term borrowings 599,07 634,20 716,77 710,97 665,25 681,79 693,69 687,93 682,17 Derivative financial instruments 0,00 2,44 0,92 0,00 0,84 1,05 0,70 0,65 0,81 Deferred income tax liability 163,52 184,09 163,79 56,60 142,00 136,62 124,75 114,99 129,59 Retirement benefit obligations 23,66 31,73 31,02 33,96 30,09 31,70 31,69 31,86 31,34 Provisions 12,69 15,92 21,48 22,50 18,15 19,51 20,41 20,14 19,55 Other non-current liabilities 29,64 30,05 6,57 5,95 18,05 15,16 11,43 12,65 14,32 Non-Current Liabilities 828,56 898,42 940,55 829,97 874,38 885,83 882,68 868,21 877,78 Short-term bank liabilities 93,72 49,52 26,31 129,50 74,76 70,02 75,15 87,36 76,82 Trade and other payables 187,23 220,46 265,31 266,58 234,90 246,81 253,40 250,42 246,38 Derivative financial instruments 3,38 0,13 0,00 0,00 0,88 0,25 0,28 0,35 0,44 Income tax payable 10,14 10,99 4,96 3,75 7,46 6,79 5,74 5,94 6,48 Provisions 2,01 4,14 6,34 7,15 4,91 5,63 6,01 5,92 5,62 Current Liabilities 296,48 285,23 302,92 406,99 322,90 329,51 340,58 350,00 335,75 Total Liabilities (b) 1.125, , , , , , , , ,52 TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES (a+b) 2.663, , , , , , , , ,47

5 Estimated Financial Statment Profit & Loss (m. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Sales 1127, , , , , , , , ,461 % change 2,70% 20,67% 7,96% -13,14% 4,63% 4,42% 4,24% 4,06% Cost of Goods sold 846, , , , ,6 930,8 972,0 1013,2 1054,3 % change 2,08% 20,32% 3,15% -17,02% 4,63% 4,42% 4,24% 4,06% Gross Profit 281,6 294,5 358,4 437,0 421,2 440,7 460,1 479,6 499,1 % change 4,58% 21,69% 21,94% -3,63% 4,63% 4,42% 4,24% 4,06% % margin 24,97% 25,42% 25,64% 28,96% 32,13% 32,13% 32,13% 32,13% 32,13% EBITDA 186, , , , ,4 309,0 322,7 336,4 350,1 % change -2,56% 19,18% 28,73% 6,02% 4,63% 4,42% 4,24% 4,06% % margin 16,52% 15,68% 15,48% 18,46% 22,53% 22,53% 22,53% 22,53% 22,53% Depreciation 114, , , , ,4 120,6 124,4 122,9 121,8 EBIT 71,533 76,556 85, ,5 176,0 188,5 198,3 213,5 228,2 % change 7,02% 11,98% 76,71% 16,15% 7,12% 5,19% 7,68% 6,90% % margin 6,34% 6,61% 6,13% 10,04% 13,42% 13,74% 13,84% 14,30% 14,69% Financials 80,9 29,7 43,6 88,0 47,95 54,33 60,59 67,97 70,11 PBT -9,36 46,821 42,144 63,5 128,0 134,2 137,7 145,5 158,1 % change -600,22% -9,99% 50,73% 101,51% 4,80% 2,63% 5,70% 8,65% % margin -0,83% 4,04% 3,01% 4,21% 9,77% 9,78% 9,61% 9,75% 10,18% Taxes/Other -19,6-11,1-6,8 63,8 6,6 13,1 19,2 25,7 16,1 Net Income (with minorities) -29,0 35,7 35,3 127,3 121,5 121,0 118,5 119,9 142,0 % change -223,18% -1,18% 260,75% -4,62% -0,33% -2,08% 1,14% 18,46% % margin -2,57% 3,08% 2,53% 8,44% 9,27% 8,83% 8,28% 8,03% 9,14% Estimated Cash Flows Cash Flows (m. ) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Net Income -29,0 35,717 35, ,3 121,5 121,0 118,5 119,9 142,0 Plus: Deprications & Amortizations 114,83 105,04 130,70 127,11 119,42 120,56 124,45 122,88 121,83 Plus: Δ Provisions 0,40 2,12 2,20 0,82-2,24 0,72 0,37-0,08-0,31 Plus: Payable Taxes -1,63 0,85-6,03-1,21 3,71-0,67-1,05 0,20 0,55 Gross Cash Flow 84,60 143,73 162,16 254,05 242,33 241,67 242,30 242,87 264,07 Plus: Δ Trade and other Payables -12,05 33,23 44,85 1,28-31,69 11,92 6,59-2,98-4,04 Less: Δ Trade Receivables -23,35-15,31 9,70 28,96-22,74 0,15 4,02 2,60-3,99 Less: Δ Other Receivables 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Less: Δ Inventories -8,54 54,40 11,02-37,87 9,29 9,21-2,09-5,36 2,76 Δ Working Capital -19,85 5,86 24,13-10,19 18,24-2,55-4,66 0,21 2,81 Operating Cash Flow 104,45 137,86 186,29 264,23 224,09 244,22 246,96 242,66 261,26 Less: CAPEX (Fixed Assets) 48,61 81,18 170,42 240,05 129,16 135,14 141,12 147,10 153,08 Less: Δ Investments ,808 5,328-3,744 88,567-65,885 6,066 6,251 8,750-11,204 Free Cash Flow 8607,65 62,01 19,61-64,38 160,81 103,01 99,58 86,81 119,39 Less: Dividends 7,71 23,12 23,12 84,77 34,68 41,42 46,00 51,72 43,45 Plus: Δ Equity 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Pluss: Δ Debt -152,05-9,08 59,36 97,39-100,45 11,81 17,03 6,44-16,29 Δ Cash & Equivalents -99,743-41,311-21,213 57,977-22,549-6,774 1,860 7,629-4,958 Cash & Equvalents 184, , , , , , , , ,918

6 Estimated Balance DCF (EUR thousands) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f Revenues 1127, , , , , , , , ,461 EBITDA 186, , , , , , , , ,053 EBIT*(1- Tax Rate) 50,788 54,355 60, , , , , , ,040 CAPEX 48,610 81, , , , , , , ,077 Depreciations & Amortizations 114, , , , , , , , ,827 CAPEX - Depreciations -66,216-23,855 39, ,943 9,749 14,579 16,675 24,216 31,250 ΔWC -19,851 5,862 24,128-10,185 18,237-2,553-4,657 0,210 2,809 Reinvestment -86,067-17,993 63, ,758 27,986 12,026 12,018 24,426 34,059 Reinvestment (abs) 86,067 17,993-63, ,758-27,986-12,026-12,018-24,426-34,059 Free Cash Flow 136,855 72,348-2,987 4,801 96, , , , , , , , , ,302 WACC 7,44% 7,37% 7,19% 7,10% 7,27% 7,23% 7,20% 7,20% 7,22% Discounted Period Discounted FCF 90,37 105,92 104,52 96,29 90,30 85,67 81,46 77,46 73,65 70,03 Discount Rate 93,2% 87,0% 81,2% 75,7% 70,6% 65,6% 61,2% 57,0% 53,2% 49,6% Υπολογισμός WACC (EUR εκατ.) 2013a 2014a 2015a 2016a 2017e 2018e 2019f 2020f 2021f Cash & Equivalents 184, , , , , , , , ,918 Short Debt 93,724 49,522 26, ,499 74,765 70,025 75,150 87,360 76,825 Long Debt 599, , , , , , , , ,165 Net Cash/(Debt), Current Loan Value 508, , , , , , , , ,072 FCFn 141,302 g 2,00% WACC 7% TV 2734,005 PV of TV 1355,030 Debt & Equity 2073, , , , , , , , ,241 g FCFn WACC 7,44% 7,37% 7,19% 7,10% 7,27% 7,23% 7,20% 7,20% 7,22% 2% 2026f

7 Methods Prices Weight DCF 21,38 50% P/E 20,31 25% EV/EBITDA 21,70 25% Average Price 21,19 Expected Return 4,35% PV Cash Flows 875,669 PV of TV 1355,030 EV 2230,698 Net Debt 582,852 Fair Value Equity 1647,846 Number of Shares 77,064 Target Price 21,38 Price 20,31 Expected Return 5,28% BUY INCREASE HOLD DECREASE SELL Consensus DON'T DO IT DO IT DO IT DON'T DO IT DON'T DO IT

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