Théorie Financière. 4. Tableau de financement et planning financier

Transcription

1 Théorie Financière 4. Tableau de financement et planning financier Professeur André éfarber

2 Assets Fixed assets (FA) Summarized (managerial) balance sheet Working capital requirement (WCR) Cash (Cash) Liabilities FA + WCR + Cash = SE + D Stockholders' equity (SE) Interest-bearing debt (D) Working capital requirement : definition + Accounts receivable + Inventories + Prepaid expenses - Account payable - Accrued payroll and other expenses Interest-bearing debt: definition + Long-term debt + Current maturities of long term debt + Notes payable to banks Tfin 04 Cash flows 2

3 Net Working Capital Net working capital can be understood in two ways: as an investment to be funded: Current Assets - Current Liabilities as a source of financing=stockholders' equity + LT debt - Fixed Assets Fixed Assets Stockholder s equity Current ratio: a measure of NWC Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilites Current Assets Net Working Capital Long term db debt Net working capital = Current assets - Current liabilites Current ratio > 1 NWC > 0 Current liabilities Tfin 04 Cash flows 3

4 Summarized balance a sheet identity: ty: Net Working Capital vs Working Capital Requirement FA + WCR + CASH = SE + LTD + STD can be written as: WCR + (CASH - STD) = (SE + LTD - FA) Working Capital Requirement Net Liquid Balance Net Working Capital WCR + NLB = NWC Tfin 04 Cash flows 4

5 Sources of Cash Inflow and Cash Outflow Operating Activities Investing Activities Financing Activities Sales of goods and services Sale of fixed assets Issuance of stocks and bonds Sales of LT financial assets LT and ST borrowing CASH Operating Activities Investing Activities Financing Activities Purchase of supplies Capital expenditures and Repurchage of stocks and bonds Selling, general and acquisitions Repayment of debt administrative expenses LT financial investments Dividend payment Tax expenses CF from operating CF from investing CF from financing activities activities activities Tfin 04 Cash flows 5

6 Notations Income statement Balance sheet REV Revenue FA Fixed assets, net CGS Cost of goods sold AR Accounts receivable SGA Selling, general and administrative INV Inventories expenses CASH Cash & cash equivalents Dep Depreciation SE Equity capital EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes LTD Long term debt AP Accounts payable Int Interest expenses STD Short-term borrowing TAX Taxes T c Tax rate Statement of retained income NI Net income DIV Dividendes Tfin 04 Cash flows 6

7 Income statement and balance sheet Income statement e t EBIT = REV - CGS - SGA - Dep TAX = T c (EBIT - Int) NI = EBIT - Int - TAX Balance sheet equation FA + AR + INV + CASH = SE + LTD + AP + STD Working capital requirement: WCR AR + INV - AP =(Current assets - CASH) - (Current liabilities - STD) Summarised balance sheet: FA + WCR + CASH = SE + D (D = LTD + STD) Tfin 04 Cash flows 7

8 Cash flow statement : indirect method ΔFA + ΔWCR + ΔCASH = ΔSE + ΔD ΔFA = AQ - Dep AQ = Acquisitions - Disposals (investing & divesting) ΔSE = NI - DIV + ΔK ΔK = New issuance of capital (NI + Dep - ΔWCR) - (AQ) + (ΔK + ΔD -DIV) = ΔCASH Cash flow from operating activities Cash flow from investing activities Cash flow from financing activities + + = Tfin 04 Cash flows 8

9 Statement of cash flows: direct method + Cash collection from customers REV - ΔAR - Cash payment to suppliers and employees - Cash paid for interest - Cash paid for taxes = Cash flow from operating activities + Cash flow from investing activities -AQ CGS + ΔINV + SGA - ΔAP Int TAX (REV-CGS-SGA-Int-TAX)- ΔWCR NI+Dep-ΔWCR + Cash flow from financing activity ΔK + ΔD - DIV = ΔCASH (NI + Dep - ΔWCR) + (-AQ) + (ΔK + ΔD - DIV) = ΔCASH Tfin 04 Cash flows 9

10 Free Cash Flow Free Cash Flow = Cash flow from operating activities t + Cash flow from investing activities Calculating free cash flows of all equity firm: Free Cash Flow = EBIT(1-TT C )+Dep - ΔWCR - AQ Statement of cash flows for all-equity firm: Free Cash Flow = DIV - ΔK + ΔCash Tfin 04 Cash flows 10

11 Financial Forecasting Income Statement Statement of Cash Flows EBITDA -Depreciation =EBIT -Taxes +Net Income CF from operating activities CF from investing activities CF from financing activities Update Balance Sheet Tfin 04 Cash flows 11

12 Financial Planning Based on Revenues Assumptions on key ratios relating ΔRevenues to: Gross margin: m = EBITDA /Revenues Working capital requirement: w = Δ WCR / Δ Revenues Net fixed assets: a = Δ NFA / Δ Revenues Financial policy: Payout ratio p = DIV/Net Income Depreciation d = Depreciation / Fixed Assets-1 Environment: Tax rate T C Cost of debt i Tfin 04 Cash flows 12

13 Data Revenues year 0: 2,000 Gross margin: m = 30% WCR: w = 20% Growth rate year 1: 25% Net fixed assets: a = 30% Balance sheet end year 0 Payout ratio p = 50% Net Fixed Assets 600 Depreciation d = 10% Tax rate T C = 40% Working Capital Requirement 400 Cost of debt i = 10% Cash 0 Total Assets 1,000 Book Equity 600 Debt (financial) 400 Total Liabilities + Stockholders equity 1,000 Tfin 04 Cash flows 13

14 Step 1: Income statement Year 0 Year 1 Sales 2,000 2,500 Rev -1 (1+g) EBITDA 750 m Rev Depreciation 60 d NFA -1 EBIT 690 Interests 40 i D -1 Taxes 260 Net Income 390 Tfin 04 Cash flows 14

15 Step 2: Statement of Cash Flows Year 0 Year 1 Net Income 390 From Income Stat. Depreciation 60 From Income Stat. WCR 100 w Δ Revenues CF from operations 350 NFA 150 a Δ Revenues Depreciation 60 CF from investing -210 Div 195 p Net Income Stock Issues/buy back 0 Assumption Debt 55 Plug CF from financing -140 Cash 0 Tfin 04 Cash flows 15

16 Step 3: Update balance sheet Year 0 Year 1 Net Fixed Assets NFA -1 + Inv Dep Working Capital WCR -1 + Δ WCR Cash 0 0 Cash -1 + Δ Cash 1,000 1,250 Book Equity BEq -1 +SI + NI DIV Debt D -1 + Δ D 1,000 1,250 Tfin 04 Cash flows 16

17 The Full Model Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Financial planning Income Statement Sales 2,000 2,500 3,125 3,906 4,883 Sales growth rate 25% EBITDA ,172 1,465 Gross margin 30% Depreciation Depreciation rate 10% EBIT ,078 1,348 Cost of debt 10% Interest Expenses Tax rate 40% Taxes Payout 50% Net Income WC/Sales 20% Statement of Cash Flows NFA/Sales 30% Earnings Depreciation Var WCR Operating Cash Flow Var Net Fixed Assets Depreciation Cash Flow from Invest Dividends Var Book Equity Var Debt CF from Financing Var Cash Balance Sheet Fixed assets ,172 1,465 Working Capital Cash ,000 1,250 1,563 1,953 2,441 Book Equity ,040 1,348 1,734 Debt (Financial) ,000 1,250 1,563 1,953 2,441 Tfin 04 Cash flows 17

18 Sustainable growth What growth rate can a company achieve without requirement e e additional a external equity? Δ Assets = (a+w) Δ Revenues Δ Assets = Δ Book Equity + Δ Debt = Δ Book Equity + λδbook Equity = Net Income (1 Payout)(1 + λ) = (Revenues) (Profit Margin)(1-Payout)(1+ λ) g = Δ Revenues / Revenues = (Profit Margin)(1 Payout)(1+ λ) / (a+w) Tfin 04 Cash flows 18

19 Sustainable Growth: example Back to previous example: e: a+w = 0.30 Net Profit margin = 15% Payout ratio = 50% λ = ΔDebt / Δ Book Equity = 2/3 g = [15% (1-0.50) (1+2/3) ] / 0.30 = 41.67% Tfin 04 Cash flows 19