General retail. abc. General retail. Sector sales. Paul Rossington* Analyst HSBC Bank plc

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1 Paul Rossington* Analyst HSBC Bank plc Sector sales Lynn Raphael Sector sales HSBC Bank plc David Harrington Sector sales HSBC Bank plc *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 1

2 2 Sector structure Food retail Beverages Consumer & Retail - Europe xxxxxxxxxx Food and HPC xxxxxxxxxxxxxx Luxury EMEA Equity Research See sector section for further details See sector section for further details See sector section for further details See sector section for further details Clothing & Home DIY Electricals Internet & catalogue Specialty Debenhams (FTSE 250) Home Retail Group (FTSE 250) Dixons (FTSE 250) Asos plc (FTSE AIM) Carphone Warehouse (FTSE 250) Hennes & Mauritz (MSCI EU) Kingfisher (FTSE 100) Inchcape (FTSE 250) Brown N Group (FTSE 250) Halfords (FTSE 250) Inditex (MSCI EU) Dunelm (FTSE 250) Kesa Electricals (FTSE 250) PPR (MSCI EU) Marks & Spencer (FTSE 100) Signet (FTSE 250) Mothercare (FTSE 250) WH Smith (FTSE 250) Next (FTSE 100) Sports Direct (FTSE 250) Source: HSBC

3 Sector price history UK leaves ERM in Sept 1992, resulting in sharp fall in interest rates and economic recovery Periods of low interest rates, consistently rising house prices and mortgage equity withdrawal Collapse in UK GDP as credit crunch bites EMEA Equity Research Bricks and Mortar retailers out of fashion, as internet fever drives market (note subsequent recovery as internet bubble bursts in March 2000). Period coincides with start of serious competition for traditional retailers from supermarkets and fast fashion discounters. Biggest stock in sector (M&S) loses 6 of its value between 1998 and Sector performance (LHS) UK GDP (%YOY) NADJ (RHS) UK BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE (EP) (RHS) UK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICATOR- SADJ (RHS) Source: HSBC, Thomson Reuters Datastream 3

4 4 EBIT margin versus asset turnover chart CY2012e 4.0 WH Smith 3.5 EMEA Equity Research Asos Asset Turnover 2.0 Next H&M 1.5 Home Retail Inchcape Debenhams M&S Halfords Signet Inditex 1.0 Kingfisher N Brown 0.5 Dixons Dunelm Sport Direct 0.0 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 12% 14% 16% 18% 2 EBIT Margin (%) Source: HSBC estimates, Thomson Reuters Datastream for uncovered stocks

5 Sector description Pan-European general retail The Pan-European general retail sector is split between Europe and the UK. Europe is dominated by a handful of established names, and the combined market capitalisation of Inditex and H&M (cusd93bn) accounts for a substantial share of the MSCI European Retail Indices, which also includes a handful of UK names. With the exception of Inditex, H&M, PPR (covered by luxury goods) and a few specialist mid cap stocks, there is little in the way of investible sector players outside the UK. The UK is a highly cyclical and largely mature industry (7 organised retail penetration) with few genuine defensive propositions and limited exposure to international revenue. A significant share of the industry is in private hands owing to substantial investment between 2002 and 2007 by private equity firms, which were attracted by strong cash generation and the availability of cheap debt, as well as by sale-and-leaseback freehold property assets. Accordingly, the listed component is typically asset-light and varied in nature with no two companies the same; the combined market capitalisation amounts to just cusd38bn. The three FTSE 100 companies (Kingfisher, Marks & Spencer and Next) account for around 65% or USD25.6bn of this total. Growth stocks in the UK are typically mid cap in nature and share one or more of the following characteristics: Paul Rossington * Analyst HSBC Bank plc paul.rossington@hsbcib.com *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Specialist propositions with limited exposure to non-specialist/supermarket competition Ability to derive a higher percentage of revenues from faster-growing international/emerging markets Exposure to, or the ability to adapt to, structurally higher growth in online consumer spending patterns Key themes Macro environment: unemployment, income, consumer confidence, savings ratio Given the mature market positions/domestic market exposure of the vast majority of stocks within this space, consumer confidence is a key lead indicator of the sector s performance. This is driven by the macro environment, primarily the outlook for employment and thus personal/household disposable income. In most consumption-driven economies (such as the UK) the unemployment rate has a very strong correlation with the rate of GDP growth. The single largest determinants of households future disposable income are the savings rate (the percentage of disposable income that is not spent) and, by default, consumer confidence (ie will I still have a job in 12 months time? ). Base rates have a strong positive correlation with retail sector performance given their direct impact at the beginning of an Northern Europe consumer confidence Southern Europe consumer confidence (10) (30) (50) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q (10) (30) (50) (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q (20) (40) (60) (80) (100) Germany UK Sweden France Italy Greece Spain Portugal Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 5

6 economic cycle via lower household mortgage/lending costs, and later via the higher rates used to keep economic growth in check. Thus although lower interest rates support/encourage consumer spending and confidence, rising interest rates and the implied increase in GDP growth are the main drivers of longerterm sector performance. Price inflation is a positive, as long as it is not more than offset by higher input costs/cost inflation (leading to margin squeeze). Any significant increase in the costs of food, warmth and shelter will also determine what income remains for discretionary purchases. International diversification Companies that earn a larger share of their revenues outside the domestic market, including in highergrowth emerging markets thereby increasing the size of their addressable market offer the greatest diversification to macro risk. Exposure to high overseas revenues and GDP growth in the respective markets are positive. International revenue exposure and sales-weighted market GDP growth (CY2012e) 10 75% 5 25% HOME 0.5% HFD 0.5% BWNG 0.5% SMWH 0.6% NXT 0.5% MKS 0.9% DEB 0.6% SPD 0.3% SGP 0.5% MTC 1.6% DXNS 0.5% ASC 2.1% KGF 1% INCH 1.7% HMB 1.1% ITX 1.2% KESA 0.3% UK Eurozone & Wt Europe Other Developed markets Emerging markets Note: Numbers written next to company denote sales-weighted market GDP growth by company for CY 2012e Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Input cost pressures In the decade until end-2009, European retail was a major beneficiary of the US dollar carry trade; a weak dollar and the switch to lower-cost Far East sourcing underpinned the sector s gross margin expansion. This trend reversed in on a combination of higher Far East manufacturing wage inflation, increased raw material input costs and a stronger US dollar. While the reduction in raw materials input costs (specifically cotton) will bring total input costs down over the next two years (we forecast a reduction of around 5-7% in US dollar sourcing costs in e), we ultimately expect Far East sourcing costs to keep rising. Input cost analysis % y-o-y 2012e y-o-y 2013e % y-o-y Raw material costs (eg cotton) % 36-19% 22-39% Labour % 34 23% Other production costs, SG&A Manufacturing margin Freight % 6-32% 7 1 Duty % 12-3% 11-8% Total % y-o-y change 5% 3-5% -7% Source: HSBC estimates 6

7 Online sales growth in key countries (% y-o-y) 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q UK France Germany US 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1 Retail sales growth in key countries (% y-o-y) 1 5% -5% -1-15% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q UK France US Germany 1 5% -5% -1-15% Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC Structural shift to online Given the rollout of broadband networks, increasingly sophisticated website innovation and the suitability of certain product categories for digital dissemination (eg entertainment), the internet poses a material competitive threat to some established bricks-and-mortar business models that are already under pressure from an intensification in non-food competition from the major supermarket groups. For others, however, it is a substantial growth opportunity. Although it is not yet clear what the level of online penetration in specific categories will ultimately be (around 13% of total UK retail sales in 2011), this remains an area of structural growth and is now the fastest route to international expansion via reduced barriers to entry. Sector drivers Online: positive for brands but not for boxes Given the sector theme of the structural shift to online retailing we think the most successful models will be those able to differentiate themselves either by first-mover advantage in developing an online interface such as pure-play/specialist internet retailers (Asos plc) or brand proposition/exclusivity. The table below identifies where online is an opportunity for the stocks in our universe (primarily brands), and conversely where it is a risk to established businesses (boxes): those worst affected by pricing pressure, those reliant on third-party brands, and those in historically specialist markets (eg electrical goods) that have been commoditised by the introduction of non-specialist competition (eg UK supermarket groups) and new market entrants (eg Amazon). Online revenue exposure (% of group sales): Opportunity or risk? Models that offer potential opportunities Neutral Models that face potential threats Company % Company % Company % Asos 10 Halfords 9% Home Retail Grp (Argos Only) 39% Brown (N) Grp 51% WH Smith n/a Mothercare (as a % of UK sales) 23% Next 32% Kingfisher n/a Kesa 1 Marks & Spencer Grp (GM sales only) 15% Inchcape n/a Dixons Retail 8% Sports Direct Intl. (% of retail sales) 8% Carpetright n/a Supergroup 8% Debenhams 8% H&M Less than 5% Inditex Less than 5% Source: Company data (last reported financial period), HSBC Structural growth in online spending and the opportunity that it provides is also key to the debate about how many stores a company needs to service its target market (see capacity withdrawal overleaf). 7

8 Consolidation and capacity withdrawal: positive for large retail market share In recent recessionary times, general retail sectors in developed markets have been characterised by capacity withdrawal motivated by two key drivers: (1) increase in online spending (eg Amazon); and (2) the expansion of major supermarket groups into non-food categories (eg Tesco, Asda Walmart, Sainsbury s and WM Morrisons). This has had a dramatic effect on UK general retailers, leading to the failure of both listed and private-equity-backed businesses typically in price-led commodity categories. The vast majority of casualties have been relatively small players, which had, in many cases, overexpanded in previous years; their failure to capitalise online spending trends combined with higher property rental costs led to margin squeeze. Shopping centre development pipeline: floor space (m sq ft) UK supermarket space growth slowing (% y-o-y) 1 8% 80 5% 60 3% UK Europe -3% 2007a 2008a 2009a 2010a 2011a 2012e 2013e 2014e Tesco Sainsbury Morrison Total Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Marketbeat Shopping Centre Development Report Europe March 2010, HSBC Source: Company data, HSBC estimates While capacity withdrawal is positive for any remaining retailer, the larger companies in the sector (eg Debenhams in home & beauty and clothing, and Home Retail group in small-ticket electricals, entertainment and gifting) with the broadest category exposure stand to gain most from reduced competition, in our view. The benefits can be either from market share gains or the acquisition of distressed assets (eg complementary brands, physical assets, or client data in the case of internet-based operators) at depressed valuations. Cost-cutting and cash-saving initiatives: scale brings advantage Aggressive cost-cutting initiatives have characterised all but a handful of operators in the sector. By reducing or optimising what are largely fixed-cost overheads, these companies are now better positioned to benefit from increased operational gearing on small market share or revenue gains. With larger/more sustainable businesses repairing their balance sheets through reduced capital expenditure, those with sustainable business models have used the cessation of dividend payments and equity capital raisings (rights issues), where appropriate, to restore their balance sheets. For example M&S announced around GBP300m in cost savings under Plan 2020, Home Retail greatly reduced its cost base by around GBP200m over four years ( ). Overall the sector has become leaner over the years. Company sales indicators Although most companies in the sector are cyclical by nature, no two are the same, so the key lead indicators for sales and earnings growth performance can differ markedly between companies. For Inditex (around 25% Spanish revenues) we use Spanish chain stores sales; for H&M (some 25% German revenue exposure) we use 8

9 Textilwirschift data for the local market. For other companies we use a variety of UK and French lead indicators from trade bodies such as British Retail Consortium and ONS/Banque de France data. Valuation Key valuation metrics In the case of the retail sector, EV/EBITDA, PER and yield both free cash flow (FCF) and dividend remain the key metrics by which the sector is most often screened or filtered. With debt concerns largely removed from the valuation agenda, the PER is generally considered to be the key long-term metric by which the sector is valued. The 10-year historical one-year forward PE range is x, with an average of 13.1x. Additionally, and supplementing PER analysis, ROIC is often seen as a key measure of performance for mature companies. Intrinsic valuation methodologies such as discounted cash flow (DCF), dividend discount models (DDM) and adjusted present value (APV), can then be used to gain an accurate assessment of the present value of future cash flows by absolute quantum; this is particularly relevant for companies that generate cash in excess of their own investment requirements (and thus are either low or ex-growth), and which are looking at a sustainable total shareholder returns (TSR) a combination of underlying EPS growth, dividends and share buybacks as the key mechanisms for returning value to shareholders. Classification Cyclical versus defensive: Cyclical stocks typically trade at a premium to the sector and can often deliver high or super-normal earnings growth, supported by a structural growth dynamic (eg the internet) or cyclical recovery. Defensive stocks typically trade at a discount to the sector but are often characterised by higher FCF/dividend yields, supported by consistent and sustainable cash generation. UK-centric versus international: Stocks which offer international diversification (Kingfisher, Inditex, Hennes & Mauritz) typically trade at a premium to UK-centric business models, with exposure to emerging markets and BRIC territories highly valued by the investor. FTSE100 versus FTSE350: Given their largely mature status, UK-centric business models and the resultant low earnings growth rates, FTSE100 stocks typically trade at a discount to other UK FTSE350 ers, which often have emerging competitive advantages via scale in specialist retail categories. General Retail*: growth and profitability (calendarised data) e Growth Sales 11.5% 9.3% 8.2% 6.2% 10.1% EBITDA 6.1% 9.8% 14.3% 1.5% 11.3% EBIT 2.9% 9.3% 17.6% 0.9% 12.2% Net profits 3.9% 9.8% 19.7% 2.5% 10.8% Margins EBITDA 20.4% 20.3% 21.6% 20.3% 20.5% EBIT 16.6% 16.2% 17.6% 16.3% 16.7% Net profit 12.4% 12.1% 13.2% 12.5% 12.6% Productivity Capex/sales 7% 5% 5% 6% 5% Asset turnover (x) Net debt/eq 0.1x -0.1x -0.2x -0.2x -0.2x ROE 31% 29% 31% 27% 28% Note: Based on all HSBC coverage of General Retail. All data are market cap weighted Source: company data, HSBC estimates 9

10 Sector snapshot Key sector stats Core industry driver: Retail clothing sales growth (%) MSCI EU Retailing Index 2.1% of MSCI Europe US Dollar Trading data 5-yr ADTV (EURm) 549 Aggregated market cap (EURbn) Performance since 1 Jan 2000 Absolute 1 Relative to MSCI Europe US 31% Dollar 3 largest stocks Inditex, H&M, Kingfisher Correlation (5-year) with MSCI Europe 67% US Dollar Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 18% 12% 6% -6% -12% -18% Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 France UK Germany Spain USA 18% 12% 6% -6% -12% -18% Top 10 stocks: HSBC General Retail coverage (weights are given for presence in relevant indices) Stock rank Stocks Index weight 1 Inditex *36% 2 Hennes & Mauritz *33% 3 Kingfisher **24% 4 Marks & Spencer **21% 5 Next **18% 6 Asos ***6% 7 Debenhams **3% 8 Home Retail Group **3% 9 Halfords **3% 10 N Brown Gp **3% * MSCI EU Retailing index, ** FTSE 350 Gen Retailers,,***FTSE AIM Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Country breakdown*: FTSE 350 General Retail Note: Spanish large chain store sales Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ine.es, textilwirtschaft, census.gov, HSBC PE band chart: FTSE 350 General Retail x 15x 10x Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 8x Region/country Weights (%) UK 62% Eurozone 2 EM Europe 5% Other Western Europe 4% Asia ex Japan 4% Asia-Pacific 2% Middle East, Africa 2% North America 1% LatAm 1% PB vs. ROE: FTSE 350 General Retail *Based on geographic revenue exposure Source: Company data, HSBC 0.0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 0 Fw d PB (LHS) Fw d ROE % (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 10