Thomas M. H. Chan, Director of the Public Policy Research Institute and Head of the China Business Centre, Hong Kong Polytechnic University

Transcription

1 Thomas M. H. Chan, Director of the Public Policy Research Institute and Head of the China Business Centre, Hong Kong Polytechnic University

2 Ozawa s flying geese regional system of production, trade and investment 1. A staged product cycle theory added to territorial development to explain the three miracles in East Asia, that of Japan, NIEs and China; 2. Japan as the principal second goose, and is responsible for managing the regional system and its evolution/industrial upgrading along the stages; 3. US is actually the leading goose: providing technology, market and institutional environment for the operation of the regional system; 4. The flying geese regional system is just an important part of the Pax Americana since the 1941, and the Pax Americana is the continuation of the Pax Britannica.

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4 US-led growth system under the Pax Americana

5 The disruption to the flying geese regional model of industrial upgrading 1. The US could not continue to provide both market and technology for the Japan-led regional system of industrial upgrading fiscal and trade deficits of the US and its pressure on Japan and NIEs for currency appreciation to slow down their process of industrial upgrading; 2. Japan has failed to adjust to the greater fluctuation in the currency markets both bubble building property speculation and industrial relocation to ASEAN countries failed leading to the lost decade of Japan and loss of investment ability and confidence of the Japanese firms; financial big bang in the second half of the 1990 opens the gate for outflow of Japanese huge savings in pursuit of higher returns from overseas investment; 3. The reintegration of China into the world market, first into the regional system of production, trade and investment through Hong Kong and Taiwan.

6 The role of China 1. Crowding out of investment and production of NIEs and ASEAN countries by its favourable incentive policy to attract FDI and capturing increasing larger share of the US and world markets from the existing exporting economies, including all geese in the flying geese system ; 2. Japan and NIEs have shifted to serve as suppliers of parts and technologies for final product production in China; 3. Japan and the flying geese structure have been destroyed by China and it turned into a China-centric system of production, trade and investment still geared primarily to the US market; 4. China is not satisfied to replace Japan as the second principal goose, but instead it wished to create a regional system for the global market, not only the US market diversification in exports and investment, rapid industrial upgrading stage skipping, and focusing on domestic development to build up a more self-sustainable and self-sufficient economic system.

7 Followers path of catch-up industrial upgrading: stage co-mingling, reconstructing and skipping

8 China becomes the largest market for Asian countries

9 China has increasingly become a global production base (Changes in trade value parts/components between Japan, China and ASEAN 4

10 Major flow of intermediate goods and finished goods in Asia (electrical/electronics)

11 The new scenario 1. China expands and grows by 2010 second largest economy and largest exporting economy in the world; - trade surplus larger than Japan and all emergent Asian economies combined; - foreign exchange reserve larger than those of all industrial countries combined. 2. China as the largest surplus country has become in confrontation with deficit countries led by the US for restraining its exports, appreciation of its currency, opening up its financial system (capital account convertibility), and increase its domestic consumption and imports.

12 China s grand plan and great transformation 1. An evolving new development strategy of Scientific Development - new industrial model sustainability ; - social harmony and social inclusion (inclusive growth); - ecological civilization (low carbon, etc.) 2. Huge and extensive domestic investment, especially in railways to integrate the nation and reduce transaction costs for domestic purposes 3. Overseas investment and expansion energy and raw materials supply security, and alternative market to the industrial countries (FTAs & Shangi Cooperation Organization); 4. Financial cooperation against external financial stocks but leading to a new regional financial architecture (multilateral currency swap arrangements and trade settlements in own currencies, not the US dollar).

13 China s revised HSR medium- & long-term development plan of By 2012: 42 lines and 13,000 km operating HSR (with a total of 110,000 km of railways); 2. By 2020: over 16,000 km operation HSR (with a total of over 120,000 km of railways) (Original plan of 2004: by 2020 with 12,000 km of HSR and a total of over 120,000 km of railways)

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15 Revised plan in 2009 with developments in 2010 Original plan in 2004 Source: Source: 高速客運列車開行模式選擇分析, 中商情報網,

16 By 2020 the western province of Xinjiang will have 12, 000 km operating railways (from 3,599 in 2010), but only Lanzhou Xinjiang (Urumqi) at 200 km/hr. Source: Inter-provincial Lanzhou Xinjiang Hami Linhe (Inner Mongolia) Qinghai Xinjiang Xinjiang -Tibet International Lanzhou Xinjiang westward extension Jinghe Yining Huocheng (cross Horgos to Kazakhstan) Kashgar Turgart -Kyrgyzstan China (Kashgar) Pakistan (Peshawar)

17 China s railway network to become part of the Eurasian networks

18 The Southwestern Yunnan province has planned 4 overseas railway connections to India (via Myanmar), Myanmar, Laos & Vietnam Source: /201004/ jpg Source: b8151ba7adc864b.jpg

19 The proposed Irrawaddy Corridor between China & Southeast Asia & the Pan-Asia railway networks Source: Source: John W. Garver, Development of China s overland transportation links with Central, South-west and South Asia, The China Quarterly, 2006, Figure 3.

20 China s energy security from Russian supplies

21 What is post ECFA for Taiwan 1. Taiwan is small compared with the China Mainland - in 2008 the Pearl River Delta region overtook Taiwan in GDP at official exchange rate; - the China Mainland has a far larger comprehensive economic & technological system; - Taiwan is highly dependent on the China Mainland, for market of parts and components, industrial relocation in the downstream for its many exporting products, and for consumption demand. 2. In the coming financial crises arising from the unresolved structural imbalance in the world (the US refuses to adjust and probably believes in the so called Bretton Woods II system), should Taiwan join the currency swap multilateral system to defend its financial system? 3. Will Taiwan be integrated into the dynamic metropolitan regions of the Pearl River Delta and Changjiang Delta for its future growth and development?