EXTERNAL STABILITY & THE EXCHANGE RATE
|
|
- Virgil Maxwell
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 EXTERNAL STABILITY & THE EXCHANGE RATE Peter Kennedy Head Teacher Teaching & Learning CHHS HSC Senior Marker Economics Tutor Macquarie University 1
2 Australia s External Stability Let s start with some past HSC questions 2016 HSC analyse the influence of different factors on Australia s trade and financial flows. HSC Topic 2 Examine Economic Issues assess the impact of recent changes in the global economy on Australia s trade and financial flows HSC Topic 3 Examine Economic Issues assess the key problems and issues facing the Australian economy. Australia s External Stability / Balance of Payments Another past HSC question 2012 HSC analyse the impact of changes in the global economy on Australia s Balance of Payments. Examine economic issues: HSC Topic 1 examine the effects of globalisation on economic growth and the quality of life, levels of unemployment, rates of inflation and external stability Examine economic issues: - HSC Topic 2 assess the impact of recent changes in the global economy on Australia s trade and financial flows 2
3 Australia s External Stability More past HSC questions: 2010 HSC Analyse the causes and effects of fluctuations in Australia s external stability HSC Analyse the impact of changes in the global economy on Australia s economic growth and external stability. HSC Topic 1 - Examine economic issues: examine the effects of globalisation on economic growth and the quality of life, levels of unemployment, rates of inflation and external stability From the HSC Syllabus. Examine Economic Issues (Topic 2): assess the impact of recent changes in the global economy on Australia s trade and financial flows examine the effects of changes in trade and financial flows on Australia s economic performance analyse the impact of changes in the components of the balance of payments on the value of the Australian dollar 3
4 Apply economic skills (Topic 3).. assess the key problems and issues facing theaustralian economy. External stability measurement Current Account Deficit (CAD) as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product net foreign debt as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product net foreign liabilities as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product terms of trade exchange rate international competitiveness trends positive and negative causes and effects 4
5 Australia s exports comprise: o Rural 13% o Mining 49% o Manufacturing 19% o Services 19% Australia s capital inflows comprise: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 24% Foreign Portfolio Investment 54% Financial Derivatives 6% Other investment (e.g trade credits) 16% Need to look through the prism of external stability 5
6 (Page 2) External stability can be defined as the ability of a country to meet its financial obligations arising out of international transactions. External stability is achieved when a country such as Australia is able to finance its import expenditure with its export income. 6
7 (Page 2) There is no one index of external stability, but a number of indicators are used to gauge the state of the external sector, and monitor whether external stability is being achieved. It is necessary to look at: The level and stability of the exchange rate ($AUD) in the FOREX market. The TWI is an important indicator here. The size of the Current Account Deficit (CAD). The general aim is to keep the CAD below- 5% of GDP The level of foreign debt (as a percentage of GDP) and the outflow of interest payments to service this debt Economic Environment The 3 Speed Economy ( ) Mining Boom /Terms of Trade Boom ( Terms of Trade grew by 45% between 2005 and 2011) The Booming Sector = mining sector Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 Present) Mining boom fades out : Terms of Trade start to deteriorate (fell by 10.2% in ). The TOT rose again by 15.6% in the year to December
8 Australian Dollar The 3 Speed Economy ( ) Strong $AUD reaching US $1.10(TWI 78.8)in July 2011 and averaging US 83.5c between 2005 and Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 Present) $AUD depreciates but still at US92.6c (TWI 71.3) in Jan It reaches US71c (TWI 61.3) by Sept Around US76.6c/TWI 63.9 by Oct 2016 Reached $80.66 / TWI 67.4 in early August 2017 The 3 Speed Economy( ) Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 Present) Australian Dollar Effect on Export Competitiveness: Loss of export competit,iveness (services +manufactured exports) The Lagging Sectors Effect on Export Competitiveness: Renewed competitiveness of Australian Exports; eg tourism & education Effect on Import Competitiveness Effect on Import Competitiveness Cheaper Imports =capital goods +consumer goods import competing sector suffers Improved competitiveness of import competing sector 8
9 CAD declines ( 2.4% of GDP in ) During the period Australia s CAD tended to vary between -2.5% and -6.3% GDP CAD stabilises (around -3% of GDP in ) then rises to over -5% of GDP in Balance of Goods and Services deficit declines: = BOGS Surplus of $7.6bn = BOGS Surplus of $21.3bn Net Primary Income Deficit rises : = NPI deficit of - $45.4 bn = NPI deficit of - $54.1 bn Mining Boom ( ) Balance of Goods and Services moves back into deficit: = BOGS deficit of -$21 bn Net Primary Income Deficit falls: = NPI deficit -$34 bn = BOGS back into surplus = CAD falling again??? Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 present) Net Foreign Debt The 3 Speed Economy ( ) Slow rise in Net Foreign Debt : $494.9 bn (51.8% of GDP) : $ bn (49.4% of GDP) Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 Present) Slow rise in Net Foreign Debtreaches $1 trillion in 2016 (61% of GDP) 9
10 The anemic outlook for the global economy likely to lead to slower growth for commodity prices Evidence that globalization is reversing as trade and capital flows are sluggish and migration is increasingly being restricted Despite the proliferation of Bilateral Trade Agreements - global protectionism is on the rise. The unorthodox monetary stimulus policies adopted by central banks post GFC have failed to stimulate sustainable economic growth, instead their main impact has been to inflate asset prices The post GFC explosion in global debt (a record high of US$152 trillion )- is a threat to global financial stability. 10
11 Australia remains an attractive destination for foreign investment - AAA rated government debt combined with a relatively high official cash rate (1.5%) The Australian economy is transitioning from the recent mining boom phase to a restructured economy with greater emphasis on service exports (e.g. tourism and education) and an emerging high tech manufacturing export sector Service sector productivity Improved computing power and software sophistication in areas such as health and education will enable access to larger overseas markets. Australia also maintains an advantage in the production of clean and safe agricultural and processed food products. 11
12 EXCHANGE RATES BACKGROUND INFO. o What is an Exchange Rate? o Difference between bilateral exchange rates and the TWI o Exchange rate systems (floating, fixed & hybrid) o Factors leading to appreciation o Effects of appreciation / depreciation o Page 16 W From the HSC Economics Syllabus Students learn to : o Examine Economic Issues : analyse the effects of changes in the value of the Australian dollar on the Australian economy. o Apply economic skills analyse the impact of changes in the components of the balance of payments on the value of the Australian dollar. 12
13 Past HSC Questions.. o 2013 Explain how movements in the Australian Dollar can affect the performance of the Australian economy. HSC Topic 2 - Examine Economic Issues : analyse the effects of changes in the value of the Australian dollar on the Australian economy. Past HSC Questions.. o 2011 Discuss the impact of changes in the domestic and global economy on Australia s exchange rate. o HSC Topic 2 - Apply economic skills analyse the impact of changes in the components of the balance of payments on the value of the Australian dollar. 13
14 What s been happening with the Aussie dollar? The Recent Trend.. The Australian Dollar was trading at around $US 0.74 (TWI 64.7) in early December 2016 and by mid March 2017 it had reached $US0.76 (TWI 66.8). It then pushed through the US 80c mark($us80.66/ TWI 67.4) in early August This meant that the Australian Dollar had risen by more than 11 per cent since the start of Page 21 Back in early February 2015, the Australian dollar was trading at $US 0.77 (TWI of 63.6) which was a five and a half year low. This slow weakening of the currency followed the pattern set in 2014 where the dollar finished the year at around $US0.82 after hovering around $US 0.93 in June (TWI of 71.1). - The Australian Dollar averaged $US 0.77 from 1993 until 2014, reaching an all time high of $US 1.10 in July of 2011 and a record low of $US 0.48 in April of
15 The Australian Dollar is one of the more volatile currencies of the developed world. Against the US Dollar, over the past 10 years to December 16, the AUD experienced 14.5% volatility while the Japanese Yen, Euro, Great Britain Pound & Canadian Dollar experienced around 10% volatility. Appreciating $AUD ( ) Depreciating $AUD ( ) Rising world commodity prices/ Stronger economic growth rates of Australia s main trading partners Australia s favourable terms of trade following strong global commodity prices Sustained PPa direct (FDI) and portfolio investment into the Australian economy Relatively high interest rates on offer in Australian financial markets Slowing global economic growth rates and declining commodity prices Declining terms of trade /declining global commodity prices Lower foreign investment into Australia s resource sector Lower Australian interest rates and rising US interest rates Foreign investors purchasing Australian Government bonds (AAA rated) Table 3: Recent Factors Influencing the Australian Dollar Page 24 15
16 The outlook for the Australian currency over the next year is once again clouded by global influences, most notably, the monetary tightening expected to be undertaken by the US Federal Reserve and the uncertainty surrounding the growth prospects for the Chinese economy. WHY? Most currency market analysts expect the Australian Dollar to head back to around $US0.70 during 2017 (TWI < 60) due to low commodity prices and the lifting by the US Federal Reserve (the US central bank usually just referred to as the fed ) the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point into the 0.5 to 0.75 per cent range in December (2016) and again into the 0.75% to 1% range in mid March
17 This is in addition to the Fed s approval of a quarter-point increase in its target funds rate on December 16/ 2015 (after seven years of the most accommodative monetary policy in U.S. history). The new target rate went from 0 percent to 0.25 percent. Further rises in the Federal Funds Rate are expected over the next 12 months largely in response to promised increased budget spending driving up US interest rates as the Trump administration puts its economic stimulus agenda into effect. A) US Federal Reserve tightens MP B) US Fiscal Stimulus US interest rates rise Increased issue of US Treasury Bills US Dollar rises Yields on US securities rise / higher US interest rates Australian Dollar falls US Dollar rises Australian Dollar falls 17
18 a sustained fall in the Australian dollar tends to have a positive effect on our economic growth. As a rule of thumb, a 5-cent drop in the currency has a stimulative effect on the economy about equal to a quarter-point interest rate cut. It makes our exports easier to sell, and makes domestically produced goods more competitive with those from offshore. BT Financial Group Chief Economist, Chris Caton Who wins when the Aussie Dollar depreciates? Companies with majority of assets overseas Companies who export - (mining, manufacturers & services) Australian tourism and education sectors Manufacturers (import competing sector) Farmers (import competing sector) Companies with majority of assets overseas 18
19 Who loses when the Aussie Dollar depreciates? Overseas travellers Online shoppers buying from overseas Australian shoppers buying goods made overseas Companies who import (intermediate & final goods) Companies with overseas suppliers (eg. retailers) Very Sensitive to ER movements = mining, manufacturing & agriculture Also very sensitive to ER movements = personal services (accomodation, food, recreation &arts) and other business services (IT, media, scientific & technical services ) 19
20 Why business services? Many of these industries have considerable exposure to trade-exposed industries. For example, around a quarter of the output of administrative & support services is ultimately consumed by trade-exposed industries. Less sensitive to ER movements = Social Services (education &training, health care & social assistance) 20
21 WHY- business services? Many of these industries have considerable exposure to trade-exposed industries. For example, around a quarter of the output of administrative & support services is ultimately consumed by trade-exposed industries. Females are also amongst the unemployed, mainly due to pregnancies and raising a family- sometimes it is by choice. Full unemployment is when you are completely out of a job. People affected by seasonal unemployment might be ski instructors 21
22 These people suffer from the discouraged worker hypothesis At the last federal budget the government introduced a contemporary macroeconomic policy known as fiscal policy The horse and cart has now been replaced by the automobile. Another means of measurement is a head count at CES branches at a particular point in time. Eg bank tellers taking the place of a human. According to a local newspaper, name which cannot be revealed due to HSC regulations 22
23 e.g. fruit picking. As the fruit only needs to be picked during one part of the year, the rest of the year the fruit must find some other form of employment. THREE MAIN FACTORS RESPONSIBLE. The relative weakness in the AUD ( ) has been driven by multiple factors, such as: the weakness in both the Australian economy and its major trading partner (China) the differential outlook for interest rates between the US (raising rates) and Australia (falling rates) lower commodity prices largely due to falling demand for our resources from emerging markets (particularly iron ore and coal demand from China), (Page 7) 23
24 Australia s External Stability at a Glance... Economic Environment Australian Dollar The 3 Speed Economy ( ) Mining Boom / Terms of Trade Boom ( Terms of Trade grew by 45% between 2005 and 2011) The Booming Sector = mining sector Strong $AUD reaching US $1.10(TWI 78.8)in July 2011 and averaging US 83.5c between 2005 and Effect on Export Competitiveness: Loss of export competit,iveness (services +manufactured exports) The Lagging Sectors Note: third speed = non tradeable sector (between the booming and lagging sectors) Rebalancing the Australian Economy (2012 Present) Mining boom fades out : Terms of Trade start to deteriorate (fell by 10.2% in ). The TOT rose again by 15.6% in the year to December $AUD depreciates but still at US92.6c (TWI 71.3) in Jan It reaches US71c (TWI 61.3) by Sept Around US76.6c/TWI 63.9 by Oct 2016 Effect on Export Competitiveness: Renewed competitiveness of Australian Exports; = Services (e.g. Education &.Tourism}+Manufactures Effect on Import Competitiveness Cheaper Imports =capital goods + consumer goods import competing sector suffers Effect on Import Competitiveness Improved competitiveness of import competing sector Current Account CAD decli nes ( 2.4% of GDP in ) During the period Australia s CAD tended to vary between 2.5% and 6.3% GDP Balance of Goods and Services deficit declines: = BOGS Surplus of $7.6bn = BOGS Surplus of $21.3bn Net Primary Income Deficit rises : = NPI deficit of $45.4 bn = NPI deficit of $54.1 bn CAD stabilises (around 3% of GDP in ) then rises to over 5% of GDP in Balance of Goods and Services moves back into deficit: = BOGS deficit of $21 bn Net Primary Income Deficit falls: = NPI deficit -$34 bn Net Foreign Debt Slow rise in Net Foreign Debt : $494.9 bn (51.8% of GDP) : $ bn (49.4% of GDP) Slow rise in Net Foreign Debt reaches $1 trillion in 2016(54% of GDP) 24
Economic Fundamentals in Australia MacGregor and Salla Sample responses to questions contained in Activity Centre: Unit 3 Outcome 3
Economic Fundamentals in Australia MacGregor and Salla Sample responses to questions contained in Activity Centre: Unit 3 Outcome 3 Question 1 a) Tariffs and quotas are both examples of means by which
More informationThe EBE Book of Economic Questions for HSC Students
DRAFT These guidelines are currently being proof read and changes may occur. Once the final proofing has occurred, this message will disappear Marking The EBE Book of Economic Questions for HSC Students
More information2018 HSC Economics Marking Guidelines
NSW Education Standards Authority 2018 HSC Economics Marking Guidelines Section I Multiple-choice Answer Key Question Answer 1 C 2 A 3 A 4 D 5 D 6 B 7 A 8 C 9 A 10 D 11 D 12 C 13 B 14 C 15 B 16 D 17 B
More informationTHE RESOURCES BOOM AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN AUSTRALIA
THE RESOURCES BOOM AND MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN AUSTRALIA Australian Economic Report: Number 1 Bob Gregory Peter Sheehan Centre for Strategic Economic Studies Victoria University Melbourne November 2011
More informationStrengths (+) and weaknesses ( )
Country Report Australia Country Report Marcel Weernink Economic growth in Australia decelerates due to lower mining investments. The outlook depends heavily on demand from China for its commodities and
More informationCraig James, Chief Savanth Sebastian,
Craig James, Chief Economist, @CommSec Savanth Sebastian, Economist, @CommSec This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular
More informationUK Economy and Globalisation Revision Notes if you do one thing..
UK Economy and Globalisation Revision Notes if you do one thing.. Globalisation - A Cause for Celebration or Not? This unit is about globalisation and international trade. There are both benefits and drawbacks
More informationNew information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1
Meeting 14 March 2012 New information since the October 2011 Monetary Policy Report (3/11) 1 International economy According to preliminary figures, GDP for Norway s main trading partners fell by 0.2 percent
More informationKey Insights. China Macro Pulse
MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro
More informationNew Zealand Economic Outlook. Miles Workman June 2017
New Zealand Economic Outlook Miles Workman June 17 1 Economic Outlook Overview The New Zealand economy is forecast to expand at a solid pace over the next five years With real GDP growth around 3% in 17:
More informationMarket Overview. Australian Shares
Market Overview Australian Shares Australian shares were weakening even before the global late August squall and were always likely to travel badly when market conditions turned bumpy: o For the quarter,
More informationChina s Currency: A Summary of the Economic Issues
Order Code RS21625 Updated July 11, 2007 China s Currency: A Summary of the Economic Issues Summary Wayne M. Morrison Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Marc Labonte Government and Finance Division
More informationEconomics 2005 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION. Total marks 100. Section I. Pages 2 8
2005 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION Economics Total marks 100 Section I Pages 2 8 General Instructions Reading time 5 minutes Working time 3 hours Write using black or blue pen Board-approved calculators
More informationPubPol 201. Module 1: International Trade Policy. Class 3 Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation
PubPol 201 Module 1: International Trade Policy Class 3 Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation Class 3 Outline Trade Deficits; Currency Manipulation Trade deficits Definitions What they do and do not mean
More informationJan F Qvigstad: Outlook for the Norwegian economy
Jan F Qvigstad: Outlook for the Norwegian economy Address by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at Sparebank 1 Fredrikstad, 4 November 2009. The text below may
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More informationThe Economics of the Federal Budget Deficit
Order Code RL31235 The Economics of the Federal Budget Deficit Updated January 24, 2007 Brian W. Cashell Specialist in Quantitative Economics Government and Finance Division The Economics of the Federal
More informationCRS Report for Congress
CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Order Code RS21951 October 12, 2004 Changing Causes of the U.S. Trade Deficit Summary Marc Labonte and Gail Makinen Government and Finance Division
More informationMacroeconomic and financial market developments. February 2014
Macroeconomic and financial market developments February 2014 Background material to the abridged minutes of the Monetary Council meeting 18 February 2014 Article 3 (1) of the MNB Act (Act CXXXIX of 2013
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationFebruary market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
March 2016 Global equity markets continued to correct through February but stage an early March recovery Oil prices staged a strong recovery from mid-february up 37% China economic data continued to consolidate
More informationGlobal Business Economics. Mark Crosby SEMBA International Economics
Global Business Economics Mark Crosby SEMBA International Economics The balance of payments and exchange rates Understand the structure of a country s balance of payments. Understand the difference between
More informationNAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JUNE 2018
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 11:3AM AEST, 1 JULY 218 NAB MONTHLY BUSINESS SURVEY JUNE 218 CONFIDENCE AND CONDITIONS HOLD STEADY NAB Australian Economics There was little change in headline business conditions and
More informationPubPol 201. Module 1: International Trade Policy. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Class 3 Outline. Definitions. Definitions. Class 3
PubPol 201 Module 1: International Trade Policy Class 3 Trade Deficits; 2 3 Definitions Balance of trade = Exports minus Imports Surplus if positive Deficit if negative Reported in 2 forms Balance of trade
More informationWhat questions would you like answered?
What questions would you like answered? Define the following: Globalisation an expansion of world trade leading to increased international interdependence GDP The value of goods and services produced in
More informationECONOMICS. ATAR course examination Marking Key
ECONOMICS ATAR course examination 08 Marking Key Marking keys are an explicit statement about what the examining panel expect of candidates when they respond to particular examination items. They help
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationViet Nam GDP growth by sector Crude oil output Million metric tons 20
Viet Nam This economy is weathering the global economic crisis relatively well due largely to swift and strong policy responses. The GDP growth forecast for 29 is revised up from that made in March and
More informationOUTLOOK THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK July 2017 I Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia (Inc) THE CHANGING STRUCTURE OF THE WA ECONOMY ABOUT OUTLOOK Outlook is CCIWA s biannual analysis of the Western Australian economy.
More informationEconomic Update 9/2016
Economic Update 9/ Date of issue: 10 October Central Bank of Malta, Address Pjazza Kastilja Valletta VLT 1060 Malta Telephone (+356) 2550 0000 Fax (+356) 2550 2500 Website https://www.centralbankmalta.org
More informationExemplar for Internal Assessment Resource Economics Level 2. Resource title: Where are we headed on the business cycle?
Exemplar for internal assessment resource Economics 2.5B for Achievement Standard 91226 Exemplar for Internal Assessment Resource Economics Level 2 Resource title: Where are we headed on the business cycle?
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy March 2018 Released on 22 March 2018 Outlook for Australia 1 Economic Activity
More informationReview of the Economy. E.1 Global trends. January 2014
Export performance was robust during the third quarter, partly on account of the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate of the rupee and partly on account of a modest recovery in major advanced economies.
More information23 February 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. IMF updates assessment and forecasts for Australia
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 23 February 2018 This week the IMF updated its assessment of Australia s economy. It noted Australia has been relatively successful in adjusting to the end of the mining
More informationMonthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy
MELBOURNE INSTITUTE Applied Economic & Social Research Monthly Bulletin of Economic Trends: Review of the Australian Economy December 7 Released on December 7 Outlook for Australia Economic Activity Actual
More informationVictoria University. David Gruen Australian Treasury 23 February Is the resources boom an example of Dutch
The resources boom and structural change in the Australian economy Victoria University David Gruen Australian Treasury February Outline The resources boom Structural change in the Australian traded sector
More informationEBE Economics Trial HSC Exam 2009 Marking Guidelines
EBE Economics Trial HSC Exam 009 Marking Guidelines Section I Multiple Choice Suggested answers. D. B. D 4. A 5. C 6. A 7. D 8. A 9. A 0. B. C. B. A 4. A 5. C 6. A 7. B 8. B 9. D 0. B Section II Short
More informationThursday, 6 October 2016
Thursday, 6 October 216 Executive Summary The Australian and Global Economic Outlook The Australian economy has not seen a recession in 25 years due to a mix of good fortune and good policy. We expect
More informationMay market performance. Index. Index. Global economies
JUNE 2016 The recovery in equity and commodity prices from February lows continued into May with the third straight month of equity and commodity price rises. Oil prices continued to move higher, up another
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationCraig James, Chief Savanth Sebastian, Senior
Craig James, Chief Economist, @CommSec Savanth Sebastian, Senior Economist, @CommSec http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.com.au/2013_07_25_archive.html Important Information This presentation has been prepared
More informationMID-TERM REVIEW OF THE 2013 MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
MID-TERM REVIEW OF THE MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT. INTRODUCTION. The Mid-Term Review (MTR) of the Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) evaluates progress in achieving the percent medium-term inflation objective.
More informationJanuary market performance. Equity Markets Price Indices Index
Global Central Banks continue to lower interest rates. The RBA cuts the cash rate by 25bp to 2.25% (February 2015). The ECB finally announces Quantitative Easing 60b per month. Oil prices declined again
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationQuarterly Economic Monitor
Overview of Quarterly Economic Monitor December 214 Queenstown s economy boomed during 214, with ' provisional estimate of GDP showing that the Queenstown-Lakes District economy grew by 4.5% over the year
More informationHungary s balance of payments account remained positive in Q4 2017
Hungary s balance of payments account remained positive in Q4 Persistently positive real economic trends, among them export and import growth, have caused Hungary s balance of payments account to remain
More informationPrepared by Basanta K Pradhan & Sangeeta Chakravarty November 2009
Prepared by Basanta K Pradhan & Sangeeta Chakravarty November 2009 Index of industrial production shows sign of economic recovery IIP increased by 9.1 percent Inflation now turning positive High food prices
More informationMITSUBISHI CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
MITSUBISHI CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES STATEMENTS OF CONSOLIDATED INCOME FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2008 AND CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET AS OF DECEMBER 31, 2008 Based on US GAAP Mitsubishi
More informationJAPANESE ECONOMY Mixed scenarios regarding corporate earnings... 1
JAPANESE ECONOMY Mixed scenarios regarding corporate earnings... 1 US ECONOMY The U.S. economy remains steady.... 3 Second quarter current account deficits fell to $19.7 billion.... 3 EUROPEAN ECONOMY
More informationChina Economic Quarterly
August 2016 Major economic indicators p1 /Policy updates p5 /Hot topic analysis p6 China Economic Quarterly www.pwccn.com/ceq Content I. Major economic indicators 1 II. Policy updates 5 III. Hot topic
More informationJan-Mar nd Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 8 June 2016 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 08 Jun 2016 Jan-Mar 2016 2 nd Preliminary GDP Estimate Real GDP growth rate revised upwards slightly from 1 st preliminary; results in accordance
More informationECO202: PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS SECOND MIDTERM EXAM SPRING 2009 Prof. Bill Even FORM 1. Directions
ECO202: PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS SECOND MIDTERM EXAM SPRING 2009 Prof. Bill Even FORM 1 Directions 1. Fill in your scantron with your unique id and form number. Doing this properly is worth the equivalent
More informationECO202: PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS SECOND MIDTERM EXAM SPRING 2009 Prof. Bill Even FORM 4. Directions
ECO202: PRINCIPLES OF MACROECONOMICS SECOND MIDTERM EXAM SPRING 2009 Prof. Bill Even FORM 4 Directions 1. Fill in your scantron with your unique id and form number. Doing this properly is worth the equivalent
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY LESSON 3 THE ECONOMY AND THE SHAREMARKET DISCOVER HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS ASX Schools Sharemarket Game
SUPPLEMENTARY LESSON 3 THE ECONOMY AND THE SHAREMARKET DISCOVER HOW THE WORLD REALLY WORKS 2015 ASX Schools Sharemarket Game SUPPLEMENTARY LESSON 3: TEACHER NOTES The economy and the sharemarket Introduction:
More informationThe Economics of the Federal Budget Deficit
Brian W. Cashell Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy February 2, 2010 Congressional Research Service CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL31235 Summary
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More information2. (Figure: Change in the Demand for U.S. Dollars) Refer to the information
Name: Date: Use the following to answer questions 1-3: Figure: Change in the Demand for U.S. Dollars 1. (Figure: Change in the Demand for U.S. Dollars) Refer to the information in the figure. The change
More informationUse the following to answer questions 19-20: Scenario: Exchange Rates The value of a euro goes from US$1.25 to US$1.50.
Name: Date: 1. Open-economy macroeconomics is the branch of economics that deals with: A) reducing regulations on business. B) the relationships between economies of different nations. C) reducing employment
More informationIntroduction. ECON204 Notes. Response to the GFC Crisis Monetary policy Cut interest rates Quantitative easing
Introduction ECON204 Notes Response to the GFC Crisis Monetary policy Cut interest rates Quantitative easing Fiscal policy Governments spent and borrowed a lot Fiscal deficits funded by debt Many have
More informationRegional Economic Outlook
2015 Regional Economic Outlook Muskoka-Kawarthas Presented by the Credit Unions of Ontario and the Ontario Chamber of Commerce 1 The region s unemployment rate is expected to fall steadily over the next
More informationTHE ECONOMY & THE SHAREMARKET Supplementary lesson 3 Includes: Student lessons. Teacher notes & answers
THE ECONOMY & THE SHAREMARKET Supplementary lesson 3 Includes: Student lessons. Teacher notes & answers The economy and the sharemarket Introduction: In this lesson students will take a look at influences
More informationMalaysia. Real Sector. Economic recovery is gaining momentum.
Malaysia Real Sector Economic recovery is gaining momentum. Malaysia s economy grew 4.7% in the first three quarters of 23, well above the year-earlier pace of 3.7%. GDP rose 5.1% in the third quarter,
More informationEU steel market situation and outlook. Key challenges
70th Session of the OECD Steel Committee Paris, 12 13 May 2011 EU steel market situation and outlook http://www.eurofer.org/index.php/eng/issues-positions/economic-development-steel-market Key challenges
More informationMonthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy
Monthly Report of Prospects for Japan's Economy March 15 Macro Economic Research Centre Economics Department http://www.jri.co.jp/english/periodical/ This report is the revised English version of the February
More informationEconomic Outlook. Wednesday, 23 August The Australian and Global Economic Outlook:
Economic Outlook Wednesday, 23 August 2017 Wednesday, 23 August 2017 The Australian and Global Economic Outlook: Australia s economy has enjoyed 25 ½ years of economic growth without a recession. It is
More informationEconomic Projections For 2014 And 2015
Economic Projections For 2014 And 2015 Article published in the Quarterly Review 2014:3, pp. 77-81 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2014 AND 2015 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 The Bank s latest macroeconomic
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationIndonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy
Indonesia: Changing patterns of financial intermediation and their implications for central bank policy Perry Warjiyo 1 Abstract As a bank-based economy, global factors affect financial intermediation
More informationGeneral Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2010
General Certificate of Education Advanced Level Examination January 2010 Economics ECON4 Unit 4 The National and International Economy Tuesday 2 February 2010 1.30 pm to 3.30 pm For this paper you must
More informationFebruary market performance. Equity Markets Index Price Indices. Property Index Price Index
MARCH 2017 In February, global equity markets continued to trend higher boosted by optimism about US growth and reasonably good economic and corporate earnings data. In the United States, the Standard
More information1. Which one of the following is NOT an example of the use of government fiscal policy? A change in
1.1 Macroeconomics Revision Test (1) 1. Which one of the following is NOT an example of the use of government fiscal policy? A change in a) Government spending on the National Health Service b) Interest
More informationEconomics 2006 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION. Total marks 100. Section I Pages 2 8
2006 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION Economics Total marks 100 Section I Pages 2 8 General Instructions Reading time 5 minutes Working time 3 hours Write using black or blue pen Board-approved calculators
More informationDaniel Mminele: Thoughts on South Africa s monetary policy
Daniel Mminele: Thoughts on South Africa s monetary policy Address by Mr Daniel Mminele, Deputy Governor of the South African Reserve Bank, at the JP Morgan Investor Conference, Washington DC, 16 April
More information5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key
5. Bulgarian National Bank Forecast of Key Macroeconomic Indicators for 2018 2020 The BNB forecast of key macroeconomic indicators is based on data published as of 15 June 2018. ECB, EC and IMF assumptions
More informationChristopher Kent: Financial conditions and the Australian dollar - recent developments
Christopher Kent: Financial conditions and the Australian dollar - recent developments Address by Mr Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) of the Reserve Bank of Australia, to the XE
More informationEcon 102 Exam 2 Name ID Section Number
Econ 102 Exam 2 Name ID Section Number 1. Suppose investment spending increases by $50 billion and as a result the equilibrium income increases by $200 billion. The investment multiplier is: A) 10. B)
More informationPrepared by Basanta K Pradhan & Sangeeta Chakravarty August 2010
Prepared by Basanta K Pradhan & Sangeeta Chakravarty August 21 Highlights Industrial growth cools down WPI inflation falls marginally. Rupee appreciates marginally The annual growth of Index of Industrial
More informationChapter 77: HL extension Consequences of a change in the terms of trade (3.5)
Chapter 77: HL extension Consequences of a change in the terms of trade (3.5) HL extensions Terms of trade and redistribution effects Terms of trade, PED and the balance of payments Terms of trade, commodities
More informationEconomics 2002 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION. Total marks 100. Section I. Pages 2 8
2002 HIGHER SCHOOL CERTIFICATE EXAMINATION Economics Total marks 100 Section I Pages 2 8 General Instructions Reading time 5 minutes Working time 3 hours Write using black or blue pen Board-approved calculators
More informationDomestic demand shows signs of life
Produced by the Economic Research Unit January 2013 A quarterly analysis of trends in the Irish economy Domestic demand shows signs of life Group Chief Economist: Dan McLaughlin 0.8% rise in GDP still
More informationChina Update Conference Papers 1998
China Update Conference Papers 1998 Copyright 1998 NCDS Asia Pacific Press ISSN 1441 9831 Published online by NCDS Asia Pacific Press Asia Pacific School of Economics and Management The Australian National
More informationQueensland Economic Update
Queensland Economic Update July 2017 www.cciq.com.au Chamber of Commerce & Industry Queensland An improving global economy is good news for Queensland. Totalling $65.8 billion in the year to March 2017,
More informationEcon 102 Final Exam Name ID Section Number
Econ 102 Final Exam Name ID Section Number 1. Over time, contractionary monetary policy nominal wages and causes the short-run aggregate supply curve to shift. A) raises; leftward B) lowers; leftward C)
More informationWorld Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo
World Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo Seoul 13 June 2017 Prospects of the World Economy The world economy is growing in 2017 The US Fed continues
More informationBRAZIL. 1. General trends
Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 1 BRAZIL 1. General trends In 2013, the Brazilian economy grew by 2.5%, an improvement over the 1% growth recorded in 2012. That low growth continued
More informationMarket Watch. Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review Developments in Financial Markets
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review 2018 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Stock markets were blindsided on the first day of March, when US President Donald
More information1 RED June/July 2018 JUNE/JULY 2018
1 RED June/July 20 JUNE/JULY 20 2 RED June/July 20 MAJOR HIGHLIGHTS Headline consumer inflation grew by 4.9 per cent in June 20 compared to 4.8 per cent recorded in May 20 Inflation rate (% y/y) 4.9 (June)
More information9 March 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Services and construction stay on track in February
AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 March 2018 This week the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate on hold at a record low of 1.50%, where it has been since August 2016. The accompanying statement
More informationOUTLOOK WESTERN AUSTRALIA S TURNING POINT ABOUT OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK February 2018 I Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia (Inc) WESTERN AUSTRALIA S TURNING POINT ABOUT OUTLOOK Outlook is CCIWA s biannual analysis of the Western Australian economy.
More informationKEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016
KEYNOTE SPEECH Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, Bp. Perry Warjiyo Ph.D at BNP Paribas Economic Outlook 2016 Jakarta, 23 March 2016 Introduction Following the success of strong macroeconomic policy adjustments
More informationRyuzo Miyao: Economic activity and prices in Japan and monetary policy
Ryuzo Miyao: Economic activity and prices in Japan and monetary policy Summary of a speech by Mr Ryuzo Miyao, Member of the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan, at a meeting with business leaders, Tokushima,
More informationSAMPLE COURSE OUTLINE ECONOMICS ATAR YEAR 12
SAMPLE COURSE OUTLINE ECONOMICS ATAR YEAR 12 Copyright School Curriculum and Standards Authority, 2015 This document apart from any third party copyright material contained in it may be freely copied,
More informationOct-Dec st Preliminary GDP Estimate
Japan's Economy 15 February 2016 (No. of pages: 5) Japanese report: 15 Feb 2016 Oct-Dec 2015 1 st Preliminary GDP Estimate GDP experiences negative growth for first time in two quarters hinting at risk
More informationMONTHLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN
MONTHLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN Febru ruary 2015,, Volume 1, Issue 4 Vanijya Bhavan (1st Floor) International Trade Facilitation Centre 1/1 Wood Street Kolkata - 700016 http://www.eepcindia.org E E PC India
More informationMORE BALANCED ECONOMIC GROWTH By the Bureau of Business Research and the Nebraska Business Forecast Council
VOLUME 71, NO. 719 PRESENTED BY THE UNL BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH (BBR) JUNE 2017 MORE BALANCED ECONOMIC GROWTH By the Bureau of Business Research and the Nebraska Business Forecast Council U.S. Macroeconomic
More informationThe Election Economy. November 29, City of Georgetown
The Election Economy November 29, 2016 City of Georgetown More Growth Coming Why are people moving here? Citizens Quality of Life Planning for Growth 100% Renewable Energy by 2018 Transportation Investments
More informationA Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy
A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy PowerPoint Slides prepared by: Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University 1 Market for Loanable Funds In an open economy S = I + NCO Saving = Domestic investment
More informationMonetary Policy Review : April 16
April 5, 2016 Monetary Policy Review : April 16 On expected lines, the RBI in its first bi-monthly Monetary Policy announced 25 bps cut in repo rate from 6.75 % to 6.5%. It also announced measures to address
More information