A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy

Transcription

1 A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy PowerPoint Slides prepared by: Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University 1

2 Market for Loanable Funds In an open economy S = I + NCO Saving = Domestic investment + Net capital outflow Supply of loanable funds From national saving (S) Demand for loanable funds From domestic investment (I) And net capital outflow (NCO) 2

3 Market for Loanable Funds When NCO > 0 Net outflow of capital Net purchase of capital overseas Adds to the demand for domestically generated loanable funds When NCO < 0 Net inflow of capital Capital resources coming from abroad Reduce the demand for domestically generated loanable funds 3

4 Market for Loanable Funds Loanable funds - interpreted as Domestically generated flow of resources available for capital accumulation Purchase of a capital asset Adds to the demand for loanable funds Asset located at home: I Asset located abroad: NCO 4

5 Market for Loanable Funds Higher real interest rate Encourages people to save Increases quantity of loanable funds supplied Discourages investment Decreases quantity of loanable funds demanded 5

6 Market for Loanable Funds Higher real interest rate Discourages Americans from buying foreign assets Reduces U.S. net capital outflow Encourages foreigners to buy U.S. assets Reduces U.S. net capital outflow 6

7 Market for Loanable Funds Supply of loanable funds Slopes upward Demand of loanable funds Slopes downward At equilibrium interest rate Amount that people want to save Exactly balances the desired quantities of domestic investment and net capital outflow 7

8 Figure 1 The Market for Loanable Funds Real Interest Rate Supply of loanable funds (from national saving) Equilibrium real interest rate Equilibrium quantity Demand for loanable funds (for domestic investment and net capital outflow) Quantity of Loanable Funds The interest rate in an open economy, as in a closed economy, is determined by the supply and demand for loanable funds. National saving is the source of the supply of loanable funds. Domestic investment and net capital outflow are the sources of the demand for loanable funds. At the equilibrium interest rate, the amount that people want to save exactly balances the amount that people want to borrow for the purpose of buying domestic capital and foreign assets. 8

9 Foreign-Currency Exchange The market for foreign-currency exchange Identity: NCO = NX Net capital outflow = Net exports If trade surplus, NX > 0 Exports > Imports Net sale of goods ad services abroad Americans use the foreign currency to buy foreign assets Capital is flowing abroad, NCO > 0 9

10 Foreign-Currency Exchange If trade deficit, NX < 0 Imports > Exports Some of this spending - financed by selling American assets abroad Foreign capital is flowing into U.S. NCO < 0 10

11 Foreign-Currency Exchange Supply of foreign-currency exchange Net capital outflow Quantity of dollars supplied to buy foreign assets Supply curve vertical Quantity of dollars supplied for net capital outflow Does not depend on the real exchange rate 11

12 Foreign-Currency Exchange Demand for foreign-currency exchange Net exports Quantity of dollars demanded to buy U.S. net exports of goods and services Demand curve - downward sloping A higher real exchange rate Makes U.S. goods more expensive Reduces the quantity of dollars demanded to buy those goods 12

13 Foreign-Currency Exchange Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars By foreigners Arising from U.S. net exports of goods & services Exactly balances supply of dollars From Americans Arising from U.S. net capital outflow 13

14 Figure 2 The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange Real Exchange Rate Supply of dollars (from net capital outflow) Equilibrium real exchange rate Demand for dollars (for net exports) Equilibrium quantity Quantity of Dollars Exchanged into Foreign Currency The real exchange rate is determined by the supply and demand for foreign-currency exchange. The supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency comes from net capital outflow. Because net capital outflow does not depend on the real exchange rate, the supply curve is vertical. The demand for dollars comes from net exports. Because a lower real exchange rate stimulates net exports (and thus increases the quantity of dollars demanded to pay for these net exports), the demand curve is downward sloping. At the equilibrium real exchange rate, the number of dollars people supply to buy foreign assets exactly balances the number of dollars people demand to buy net exports. 14

15 Equilibrium in the Open Economy Identities Market for loanable funds: S = I + NCO Market for foreign-currency exchange: NCO=NX Net-capital-outflow curve Link between Market for loanable funds Market for foreign-currency exchange 15

16 Exhibit 3 How Net Capital Outflow Depends on the Interest Rate Real Interest Rate Net capital outflow is negative 0 Net capital outflow is positive Net Capital Outflow Because a higher domestic real interest rate makes domestic assets more attractive, it reduces net capital outflow. Note the position of zero on the horizontal axis: Net capital outflow can be positive or negative. A negative value of net capital outflow means that the economy is experiencing a net inflow of capital. 16

17 Equilibrium in the Open Economy Market for loanable funds Supply: national saving Demand: domestic investment & net capital outflow Equilibrium real interest rate, r Net capital outflow Slopes downward Equilibrium interest rate, r 17

18 Equilibrium in the Open Economy Market for foreign-currency exchange Supply: net capital outflow Demand: net exports Equilibrium real exchange rate, E Equilibrium real interest rate, r Price of goods and services in the present Relative to goods and services in the future 18

19 Equilibrium in the Open Economy Equilibrium real exchange rate, E Price of domestic goods and services Relative to foreign goods and services E and r - adjust simultaneously To balance supply and demand In both markets Loanable funds Foreign-currency exchange 19

20 Equilibrium in the Open Economy E and r - adjust simultaneously Determine National saving Domestic investment Net capital outflow Net exports 20

21 Figure 4 The Real Equilibrium in an Open Economy Real Interest Rate (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Supply Real Interest Rate (b) Net Capital Outflow r 1 r 1 Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds In panel (a), the supply and demand for loanable funds determine the real interest rate. In panel (b), the interest rate determines net capital outflow, which provides the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange. In panel (c), the supply and demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange determine the real exchange rate. Real Exchange Rate Supply Net capital outflow, NCO Net capital outflow Demand Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange E 1 21

22 Government Budget Deficits Government budget deficits When government spending exceeds government revenue Negative public saving Reduces national saving Reduces supply of loanable funds Increase in interest rate Reduces net capital outflow 22

23 Government Budget Deficits Government budget deficits Crowd-out domestic investment Decrease in supply of foreign-currency exchange Currency appreciates Net exports fall Push the trade balance toward deficit 23

24 Exhibit 5 The Effects of a Government Budget Deficit Real Interest Rate r 2 r which increases the real interest rate... (a) The Market for Loanable Funds 1. A budget deficit reduces the supply of loanable funds... S 2 B A S 1 Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds When the government runs a budget deficit, it reduces the supply of loanable funds from S 1 to S 2 in panel (a). The interest rate rises from r 1 to r 2 to balance the supply and demand for loanable funds. In panel (b), the higher interest rate reduces net capital outflow. Reduced net capital outflow, in turn, reduces the supply of dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange from S 1 to S 2 in panel (c). This fall in the supply of dollars causes the real exchange rate to appreciate from E 1 to E 2. The appreciation of the exchange rate pushes the trade balance toward deficit. Real Interest Rate (b) Net Capital Outflow NCO Net capital outflow r 2 r 1 Real Exchange Rate E 2 E 1 S 2 S which in turn reduces net capital outflow. 4. The decrease in net capital outflow reduces the supply of dollars to be exchanged into foreign currency Which causes the real exchange rate Demand to appreciate. Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange 24

25 Trade policy Government policy Trade Policy Directly influences the quantity of goods and services That a country imports or exports Tariff - tax on imports Import quota - limit on quantity of imports Voluntary export restrictions 25

26 Trade Policy Macroeconomic impact of trade policy Decrease imports Increase in net exports Increase in demand for dollars in the market for foreign-currency exchange Real exchange rate appreciates Discourage exports 26

27 Trade Policy Macroeconomic impact of trade policy No change in real interest rate No change in net capital outflow No change in net exports Decrease in imports Decrease in exports 27

28 Figure 6 The Effects of an Import Quota Real Interest Rate (a) The Market for Loanable Funds Supply Real Interest Rate r 1 r 1 (b) Net Capital Outflow 3. Net exports, however, remain the same. Demand Quantity of Loanable Funds Real Exchange When the U.S. government imposes a quota on the Rate import of Japanese cars, nothing happens in the market for loanable funds in panel (a) or to net capital outflow in panel (b). The only effect is a rise in net exports E 2 (exports minus imports) for any given real exchange rate. As a result, the demand for dollars in the market E 1 for foreign-currency exchange rises, as shown by the shift from D 1 to D 2 in panel (c). This increase in the demand for dollars causes the value of the dollar to appreciate from E 1 to E 2. This appreciation of the dollar tends to reduce net exports, offsetting the direct effect of the import quota on the trade balance. Supply 1. An import quota increases the demand for dollars... NCO Net capital outflow And causes the real exchange rate to appreciate. D 1 D 2 Quantity of Dollars (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange 28

29 Trade Policy Macroeconomic impact of trade policy Trade policies do not affect the U.S. trade balance NX = NCO = S I Trade policies affect specific Firms Industries Countries 29

30 Political Instability &Capital Flight Political instability Leads to capital flight Capital flight Large and sudden reduction in the demand for assets located in a country 30

31 Political Instability &Capital Flight Mexico - capital flight affects both markets 1994, political instability Investors capital flight Sell Mexican assets Buy U.S. assets, safe haven Net-capital-outflow curve increases Supply of pesos in the market for foreigncurrency exchange increases Demand curve in the market for loanable funds increases 31

32 Political Instability &Capital Flight Mexico - capital flight affects both markets Interest rate in Mexico increases Reduce domestic investment Slows capital accumulations Slows economic growth The peso depreciates Exports cheaper Imports - more expensive Trade balance moves toward surplus 32

33 Figure 7 The Effects of Capital Flight (a) The Market for Loanable Funds in Mexico Real Interest D 2 Rate Supply r 2 D 1 Real Interest Rate r 2 (b) Mexican Net Capital Outflow 1. An increase in net capital outflow... r 1 r Which increases the interest rate increases the demand for loanable funds... Quantity of Loanable Funds If people decide that Mexico is a risky place to keep their savings, they will move their capital to safer havens such as the U.S., resulting in an increase in Mexican net capital outflow. Consequently, the demand for loanable funds in Mexico rises from D 1 to D 2, as shown in panel (a), and this drives up the Mexican real interest rate from r 1 to r 2. Because net capital outflow is higher for any interest rate, that curve also shifts to the right from NCO 1 to NCO 2 in panel (b). At the same time, in the market for foreigncurrency exchange, the supply of pesos rises from S 1 to S 2, as shown in panel (c). This increase in the supply of pesos causes the peso to depreciate from E 1 to E 2, so the peso becomes less valuable compared to other currencies. Real Exchange Rate NCO 1 Net capital outflow E 1 E which causes the peso to depreciate S 1 NCO 2 Demand Quantity of Pesos (c) The Market for Foreign-Currency Exchange S 2 4. At the same time, the increase in net capital outflow increases the supply of pesos... 33

34 Political Instability &Capital Flight Mexico - capital flight affects both markets U.S. market Fall in U.S. net capital outflow The dollar appreciates in value U.S. interest rates fall Relatively small impact on the U.S. economy Because the economy of the United States is so large compared to that of Mexico 34

35 Capital flows from China Nation that experiences capital flight Outflow of capital Its currency weaken in foreign exchange markets Depreciation Increases the nation s net exports Nation that experiences inflow of capital Its currency strengthen Appreciation Pushes its trade balance toward deficit 35

36 Capital flows from China A nation s government policy: Encourages capital to flow to another country By making foreign investments itself Effect? Nation encouraging capital outflows Weaker currency Trade surplus For the recipient of capital flows Stronger currency Trade deficit 36

37 Capital flows from China Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China China tried to depress its currency (renminbi) in foreign exchange markets Promote its export industries Accumulate foreign assets, $2.4 trillion, 2009 Including U.S. government bonds Chinese goods - less expensive Contributes to the U.S. trade deficit Hurts American producers who make products that compete with imports from China 37

38 Capital flows from China Ongoing policy disputes: U.S. and China U.S. government Encouraged China to stop influencing the exchange value of its currency American consumers of Chinese imports Benefit from lower prices Inflow of capital from China Lowers U.S. interest rates Increases investment in the U.S. economy 38

39 Capital flows from China Chinese policy of investing in U.S. economy Creates winners and losers among Americans Net impact on U.S. economy - probably small Motives behind the policy China - wants to accumulate a reserve of foreign assets - national rainy-day fund Misguided policy 39