Investment Market monthly Germany December 2017

Transcription

1 Savills World Research Germany Investment Investment Market monthly Germany December 217 The market at a glance Rising prices produce higher investment in the commercial and residential sectors Commercial investment market The commercial investment market closed the year with a transaction volume of more than 5bn for an unprecedented third year in succession (Table 1, Graph 1). Although the number of transactions was around 1% lower than in the two previous years, this was more than compensated for by an increase in the average transaction size. Logistics/industrial property was the only sector to significantly exceed the previous year s transaction volume. All other sectors trended broadly in line with the overall market (Graph 2). Any records set in 218 will only come via modestly lower initial yields (Graph 6). The available supply is unlikely to increase and declining price growth will also impose limits on the transaction volume. However, the 5bn threshold is likely to be exceeded once again this year. Residential investment market In the residential investment market, too, rising prices (Graph 12) more than offset the decline in the number of units transacted (Table 5). The annual transaction volume totalled 13.7bn, representing a modest increase on the previous year s figure (Table 4, Graph 9). One reason for the strong price increases was the further growth in development acquisitions. These were responsible for 28% of the transaction volume over the course of the year. Planned student apartment and micro-apartment properties played a leading role, accounting for investment of more than 1bn for the first time. Investors are increasingly shifting their attention to this niche sector as well as second and third-tier towns and cities, a trend that is likely to continue this year. While development activity continues to increase, the surplus demand is likely to persist. savills.de/research 1

2 December 217 Commercial investment market TABLE 1 Transaction volume by type of use Transaction volume ( m) Dec 17 Jan to Dec 217 against Jan to Dec 216 against Dec 216 to Nov 217 Office 3,791 23,451-3% -4% Retail 1,898 14,89 +2% -2% Industrial/Logistics 458 8, % +3% Hotel 186 2,539-41% -29% Development land 67 1,224-17% -8% Other 618 7,32 +12% -4% Total 7,19 57,58 +4% -4% GRAPH 1 Accumulated transaction volume bn Ø last 5 years Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec GRAPH 3 Deal size and number of transactions GRAPH 2 Type of use gap between transaction volume past 12 months and Ø 5 years 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Hotel Office Total market Development land Retail Other Industrial / Logistics -4% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% size of bubble: transaction volume past 12 months last 12 months year-over-year GRAPH 4 Transaction volume by deal size 3 average transaction size, past 12 months rolling (left axis) number of transactions, past 12 months rolling (right axis) 2,4 < 25m < 5m < 1m < 25m 25m , 1,6 31% 3% 2% 19% m 15 1,2 14% 14% % 16% % 17% / Note: including portfolios savills.de/research 2

3 December 217 Commercial investment market TABLE 2 Transaction volume by location Transaction volume ( m) Dec 17 Jan to Dec 217 against Jan to Dec 216 against Dec 216 to Nov 217 Berlin (B) 57 7,518 +5% -2% Düsseldorf (D) 419 2,735 +9% +1% Frankfurt (F) 1,926 6,38 +/-% +9% Hamburg (HH) 237 3,184-3% -19% Cologne (C) 198 2,17 +24% -5% Munich (M) 813 5,214-11% -8% Stuttgart (S) 64 1,199-33% -26% Germany 7,19 57,58 +4% -4% GRAPH 5 Regional distribution gap between transaction volume past 12 months and Ø 5 years 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% S HH B cities M size of bubble: transaction volume past 12 months F Total market D C/D cities Remaining -2% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% C last 12 months year-over-year / Note: based on the Bulwiengesa classification GRAPH 7 Type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Other asset manager Sovereign wealth fund Listed property company Open-ended public fund Insurance company / Pension fund Housing association Bank Other Leasing company Public administration Private investor / Family office Corporate Closed-ended fund Developer Private-equity fund Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months bn B GRAPH 6 Prime yields 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% Range min/max, last 1 years Mean, last 1 years Current (Q4 217) Forecast: Q % 3.3% 3.3% Risk free rate Office Prime high street 4.6% Retail warehouse park 4.2% Shopping centre 4.7% Logistics warehouse Source: Focus Economics, Savills / Note: always end of quarter values, risk free rate = 1Y Government Bunds, Prime Yields = Ø Top7 GRAPH 8 Transaction volume by origin of buyer Germany Remaining Europe North America Asia/Pacific Other 13% 24% 16% 24% 9% 1% 5% 1% 54% 53% savills.de/research 3

4 December 217 Commercial investment market TABLE 3 Top 2 transactions of the last six months* Date Property / Portfolio Location(s) (Main) Type of property Volume ( m) Area (sq m) Buyer Seller Portfolio (5 properties) Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich Mixed-use property ca. 1,5 127,8 SIGNA Holding RFR-Holding Sony Center Berlin Mixed-use property ca. 1,1 132,5 Oxford Properties Group, Madison International Realty National Pension Service (NPS) Tower 185 Frankfurt am Main Office ca , Deka Immobilien Investment i. a. CA Immo-Gruppe WCM-Anteilsübernahme nationwide Mixed-use property undisclosed 339,1 TLG Immobilien DIC Asset AG, Privatinvestor Dec 17 Steinmetz (13 properties) i. a. Dresden, Hamburg, Nuremberg Retail ca. 65 n/a RFR-Holding BSG Investments Oct 17 Gazeley Portfolio n/a Logistics and Industry buildings undisclosed 75, Global Logistic Properties Brookfield Europe LP SITQ-Portfolio (11 properties) i. a. Berlin, Dortmund, Düsseldorf Hotel/Gastronomy undisclosed n/a Invesco Real Estate Apollo Management Advisors Jul 17 Axel Springer Mediencampus Berlin Office ca ,2 Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) Axel Springer AG Quest (85 properties) nationwide Retail undisclosed 235,6 PATRIZIA Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbh PGIM Real Estate, Third Swedish National Pension) Jul 17 Axel-Springer Passage Berlin Office ca ,7 Blackstone Group Deutschland, Quincap Investment Axel Springer AG Jul 17 Allianz -Zentrale Berlin Office ca , Hines Immobilien CORPUS SIREO Asset Management Commercial Dec 17 Humboldtring 13 Mülheim an der Ruhr Retail undisclosed 92, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investments Blackstone Group Deutschland Vodafone Campus Teilverkauf Düsseldorf Office ca ,4 Mirae Asset Global Investment AGC Equity Partners Dec 17 Japan Center Frankfurt Office ca , GEG German Estate Group Commerz Real AG Kustermannpark Munich Office ca. 28 7, BlackRock Investment Management Ares Management LLC Dec 17 Portfolio (6 properties) Bad Rappenau, Graben, Mainz Logistics and Industry buildings ca ,5 Frasers Centrepoint Limited ECE Projektmanagement Aug 17 Hofmann Höfe Munich Office ca , Rock Capital, Privatinvestor (Deutschland) PATRIZIA Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbh Dec 17 Main Airport Center Frankfurt Office ca ,4 CapitalLand Limited, Lum Chang Holdings Limited Finch Properties, Och-Ziff Capital Management Portfolio (16 properties) n/a Logistics and Industry buildings undisclosed n/a GARBE Holding AG & Co. KG. Doblinger Unternehmensgruppe MIK Düsseldorf Office ca , Quantum Immobilien AG Blackstone Group Deutschland / * only published transactions are shown savills.de/research 4

5 December 217 Residential investment market TABLE 4 Transaction volume by city category Transacton volume ( m) Dec 17 Jan to Dec 217 against Jan to Dec 216 against Dec 216 to Nov 217 A-cities 347 6,26 +21% -8% B-cities 141 2, % -18% C-cities 47 1,3-22% -33% D-cities 43 1, % -6% Other 91 2,872-2% -16% Germany 67 13,7 +7% -14% / Note: based on the Bulwiengesa classification GRAPH 9 Accumulated transaction volume GRAPH 1 Deal size and number of transactions Ø last 5 years 1,4 average number of units per transaction, past 12 months rolling (left axis) number of transactions, past 12 months rolling (right axis) ,2 3 bn 15 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec GRAPH 11 Traded units by size 5 < 1 units 1 < 25 units 25 < 1, units 1, < 5, units > 5, units 48% 5% 4% 3% 7% 25% 14% 15% 34% / Note: including portfolios GRAPH 12 Development of prices Average purchase price per apartment (Euro) A-Cities B-Cities C-Cities D-Cities Ø Germany 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, / Note: values are 12 months rolling savills.de/research 5

6 December 217 Residential investment market TABLE 5 Traded units by city category Traded units Dec 17 Jan to Dec 217 against Jan to Dec 216 against Dec 216 to Nov 217 A-cities 2,11 34,99-8% -11% B-cities 1,294 24,76 +2% -2% C-cities 38 8,999-35% -35% D-cities ,935 +2% -9% Other 92 33,542-36% -26% Germany 5,84 117,281-16% -2% / Note: based on the Bulwiengesa classification GRAPH 13 Transaction volume by origin of buyer GRAPH 14 Transaction volume by origin of seller Germany Remaining Europe North America Other 2% 16% 1% 2% 1% 2% Germany Remaining Europe North America Other 2% 5% 3% 29% 23% 81% 77% 69% 69% GRAPH 15 Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Listed property company Housing association Other asset manager Open-ended public fund Insurance company / Pension fund Private investor / Family office Private-equity fund Leasing company Sovereign wealth fund Other Public administration Bank Corporate Closed-ended fund Developer Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months bn GRAPH 16 Traded units by city category gap between transaction volume past 12 months and Ø 5 years 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% Total market C-Cities size of bubble: Traded units of past 12 months D-Cities A-Cities B-Cities -7% -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% last 12 months year-over-year / Note: based on the Bulwiengesa classification savills.de/research 6

7 December 217 Residential investment market TABLE 6 Top 2 transactions of the last six months* Date Name of portfolio Location(s) Number of units Volume ( m) Buyer Seller Wasserstadt Mitte Berlin undisclosed undisclosed Adler Real Estate AG Benson Elliot, Kauri CAB Management Oct 17 i. a. Dresden, Erfurt, Fürth, Hannover, Kiel, Lübeck 1,9 ca. 26 Capital Bay unknown investor Aug 17 Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen 4,68 undisclosed VELERO PARTNERS unknown investor Aug 17 Dresden, Langebrück, Leipzig, Schönborn 1,1 undisclosed Deutsche Wohnen AG unknown investor Bochum, Duisburg, Essen, Gelsenkirchen 2,71 undisclosed VELERO PARTNERS unknown investor Oct 17 i. a. Berlin, Dresden, Duisburg 1,5 undisclosed Deutsche Asset One unknown investor Jul 17 Nordrhein-Westfalen 1,996 undisclosed ZBI Zentral Boden Immobilien AG unknown investor Oct 17 Mühlenquartier Düsseldorf 364 undisclosed Vivawest Wohnen u. a. Artemis Development, Convalor Dec 17 Staytoo-Portfolio i.a. Berlin, Bonn 1,123 undisclosed Harrison Street MPC Münchmeyer Petersen Capital i. a. Bad Oldesloe, Bielefeld, Bremen, Bremerhaven 2,55 ca. 13 Adler Real Estate AG Ares Management LLC Berlin 325 ca. 13 Hansainvest - Hanseatische Investment Groth Development & Co.KG Berlin 577 undisclosed Round Hill Capital unknown investor Oct 17 i. a. Berlin, Bielefeld, Dresden, Hamburg undisclosed ca. 12 Empira unknown investor Berlin, Köln 42 ca. 11 Industria Ten Brinke Groep B.V. i. a. Berlin, Bremen, Delmenhorst, Hamburg, Leverkusen 576 undisclosed Corpus Sireo Asset Management Residential A/S Tyske Metropoler Alfter, Bonn, Düsseldorf, Frechen, Troisdorf 572 ca. 92 ZBI Zentral Boden Immobilien AG Wertgrund Immobilien AG i. a. Berlin, Deggendorf, Oberursel, Stuttgart 833 ca. 9 PATRIZIA Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbh Peakside Capital Dec 17 Thüringen 793 undisclosed Peach Property Group AG unknown investor Ingolstadt 59 ca. 81 Domicil Immobilien und Wohnungsbau Wertgrund Immobilien AG Aug 17 Dortmund, Essen, Wuppertal 1,145 undisclosed LEG Immobilien unknown investor / * only published transactions are shown savills.de/research 7

8 December 217 Savills Germany Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. Today Savills provides expertise and market transparency to its clients in the following areas of activity: D HH B Our services Investment Agency Portfolio Investment Debt Advisory Valuation C F S M Savills Germany Please contact us for further information Marcus Lemli CEO Germany +49 () mlemli@savills.de Marcus Mornhart Agency +49 () mmornhart@savills.de Karsten Nemecek Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () knemecek@savills.de Draženko Grahovac Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () dgrahovac@savills.de Matthias Pink Research +49 () mpink@savills.de Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 7 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 31,5 employees worldwide. Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. Savills January 218 savills.de/research 8