Market in Minutes Germany commercial investment market Q4 2017

Transcription

1 Savills World Research Germany Market in Minutes Germany commercial investment market The market at a glance Transaction volume increases to 57.1bn despite lower amount of deals Commercial changed hands for almost 57.1bn in 217, an increase of 4% compared with the previous year (Graph 1). However, the number of transactions declined by 8% (Graph 3), which was likely a reflection of the supply shortage. Industrial and logistics registered a significant increase (+78% compared with 216). Institutional investors in particular, including Asian sovereign wealth funds and pension funds, are capitalising on the structural growth in this sector. In contrast, the transaction volumes for office (- compared with 216) and retail (+ compared with 216) were largely unchanged. In retrospect, 217 was the year in which Asian investors made a grand entry into the German commercial market. Overall, these were responsible for more than 9% of the acquisition volume (Graph 5), occupying second place behind American investors (1). The majority of purchasers continue to be long-term investors (Graph 6) seeking stable income. In view of the favourable economic projections, German real estate is likely to remain in high demand. The transaction volume in 218 is expected to exceed the 5bn mark. savills.de/research 1

2 Overview total market GRAPH 1 Accumulated transaction volume Ø last 5 years GRAPH 2 Single and portfolio transaction volume Single bn Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 / Note: dotted line = forecast GRAPH 3 Deal size and number of transactions 35 3 average transaction size, past 12 months rolling (left axis) number of transactions, past 12 months rolling (right axis) 2,8 2,4 / Note: always past 12 months rolling GRAPH 4 Transaction volume by deal size < 25m < 5m < 1m < 25m 25m+ 19% 25 2, ,6 m 15 1,2 inner ring: past 5 years outer ring: past 12 months 14% 14% % 17% GRAPH 5 Transaction volume by origin of buyer Germany Remaining Europe North America Asia/Pacific Other 1 24% 1 24% 9% 5% inner ring: past 5 years outer ring: past 12 months 54% 5 GRAPH 6 Transaction volume by type of investor Purchases, past 12 months Net investments, Ø past 5 years Open-ended special fund Other asset manager Sovereign wealth fund Listed company Open-ended public fund Insurance company / Pension fund Housing association Bank Other Leasing company Public administration Private investor / Family office Corporate Closed-ended fund Developer Private-equity fund Sales, past 12 months Net investments, past 12 months bn savills.de/research 2

3 Overview type of use TABLE 1 Transaction volume by type of use Transaction volume ( m) Q1 - Q1 - Q4 216 Q Q3 217 Office 23, % Retail 14, Industrial/ 8, % +4% Hotel 2, % Development land 1,224-17% -9% Other 7, % Total 57,58 +4% -9% GRAPH 7 Types of use: level and momentum gap between transaction volume past 12 months and Ø 5 years Hotel Office Development land size of bubble: transaction volume past 12 months Other Total market Retail Industrial / change transaction volume past 12 months previous year GRAPH 8 Prime yields 8% 7% 5% 4% - Range min/max, last 1 years Mean, last 1 years Current () Forecast: Q4 218 Risk free rate Office Prime high street Retail warehouse park Shopping centre warehouse Source: Focus Economics, Savills / Note: always end of quarter values, risk free rate = 1Y Government Bunds, Prime Yields = Ø Top7 GRAPH 9 Average size of transaction Mio. Euro Office Retail Industrial/ Hotel GRAPH 1 Structure of buyer Other Private investor / Family office Insurance company / Pension fund Listed company Developer Private-equity fund Other asset manager 1 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 1 Hotel Industrial / Retail Office Total market Open-ended special fund / Note: always past 12 months rolling, including portfolios / Note: values always past 12 months savills.de/research 3

4 Overview locations TABLE 2 Transaction volume and yields by location Transaction volume ( m) Prime yield Office Prime yield Highstreet Q1 - Q4 17 Q1 - Q4 16 Q Q3 17 Q4 17 Q3 17 Q4 16 Q4 17 Q3 17 Q4 16 Berlin (B) 7, % 3. -1bps -5bps 3. +/-bps +/-bps Düsseldorf (D) 2,735 +9% + 3.7% +/-bps -3bps 3. +/-bps -1bps Frankfurt (F) 6,38 +/ /-bps -8bps 2.9% -2bps -6bps Hamburg (HH) 3, /-bps -3bps 3. +/-bps -4bps Cologne (C) 2,17 +24% -7% 3.7% +/-bps -2bps 3. +/-bps +/-bps Munich (M) 5, % +/-bps -4bps 2.9% -1bps -3bps Stuttgart (S) 1, % 3. +/-bps -2bps 3.8% +/-bps +/-bps Germany * 57,58 +4% -9% 3. -1bps -39bps 3. -4bps -2bps / * Prime Yields = Ø Top 7 GRAPH 11 Investment activity: level and momentum gap between transaction volume past 12 months and Ø 5 years S B cities size of bubble: transaction volume past 12 months Remaining M F Total market D C/D cities HH change transaction volume past 12 months previous year / Note: based on the Bulwiengesa classification GRAPH 13 Transaction volume by type of use % 18% 49% 1 8% 8 84% % 1 4 C Office Retail Hotel Other 15% % 55% B 17% 1 7 GRAPH 12 Prime yields 5% 4% Range min/max, last 1 years Mean, last 1 years Current () Forecast: Q4 218 Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Munich Stuttgart / Note: always final values of the quarter GRAPH 14 Transaction volume by origin of buyer % 2 3 Germany Europe North America Rest of the world 5% 14% 15% % % 7 25% 3 39% Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Munich Stuttgart Berlin Düsseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Cologne Munich Stuttgart / Note: values always past 12 months / Note: values always past 12 months savills.de/research 4

5 Overview transactions TABLE 3 Top 2 transactions of the last twelve months* Date Property / Location(s) (Main) Type of Volume ( m) Area (sq m) Buyer Seller Jun 17 Logicor-Übernahme nationwide ca. 2, 2,295,1 China Investment Corporation (CIC) Blackstone Group Deutschland Nov 17 Primus (5 properties) u.a. Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg Miexed-use ca. 1,5 127,8 Signa Holding RFR-Holding May 17 Apollo (42 properties) nationwide Office undisclosed 72,5 INTOWN Property Management Apollo Management Advisors Sep 17 Sony Center Berlin Miexed-use ca. 1,1 132,5 Oxford Properties Group, Madison International Realty National Pension Service (NPS) Mrz 17 (1 properties) n/a ca ,624, Blackstone Group Deutschland, M7 Real Estate Hansteen Holdings PLC Nov 17 Tower 185 Frankfurt Office ca , Deka Immobilien Investment CA Immo-Gruppe Sep 17 WCM-Anteilsübernahme nationwide Miexed-use undisclosed 332,4 TLG Immobilien DIC Asset AG, unbekannter Privatinvestor Apr 17 (9 properties) n/a Retail ca , Bayrische Versorgungskammer Corestate Capital AG Dec 17 Steinmetz (13 properties) u.a Dresden, Hamburg, Nürnberg Retail ca. 65 n/a RFR-Holding BSG Investments Real Estate Oct 17 Gazeley-Übernahme n/a undisclosed 75, Global Logistic Properties (GLP) Brookfield Europe LP Apr 17 (15 properties) u.a. Berlin, Bodenheim, Bremen ca ,9 Axa Investment Managers Gramercy Property Trust Inc. Sep 17 SITQ- (11 properties) u.a. Berlin, Dortmund, Düsseldorf Hotel/ Gastronomy undisclosed n/a Invesco Real Estate Apollo Management Advisors Jun 17 Geneba-Übernahme n/a undisclosed n/a Frasers Centrepoint Limited Catalyst Capital Jul 17 Axel Springer Mediencampus Berlin Office ca ,2 Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) Axel Springer AG Sep 17 Quest (85 properties) nationwide Retail undisclosed 235,6 PATRIZIA Immobilien Kapitalanlagegesellschaft mbh PGIM, Third Swedish National Pension Fund Jul 17 Axel-Springer Passage Berlin Office ca ,7 Blackstone, Quincap Investment Axel Springer AG Jul 17 Allianz-Zentrale Berlin Office ca , Hines Immobilien May 17 Grand Central Frankfurt Office undisclosed 45, Amundi Real Estate Corpus Sireo Asset Management Commercial Groß & Partner, Phoenix development Jun 17 Humboldtring 13 Mülheim an der Ruhr Retail undisclosed 92, Morgan Stanley Real Estate Blackstone Group Deutschland Dec 17 T8 Frankfurt Office ca. 3 3, Mirae Asset Global Investments Credit Suisse AG / * only published transactions are shown savills.de/research 5

6 Savills Germany HH Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. Today Savills provides expertise and market transparency to its clients in the following areas of activity: C D B F Our services Investment Agency Investment Debt Advisory Valuation Savills Germany Please contact us for further information S M Marcus Lemli Investment Germany +49 () mlemli@savills.de Philipe Fischer National Investment +49 () pfischer@savills.de Steffen Pulvermacher Investment Berlin +49 () spulvermacher@savills.de Stefan Mellies Investment Düsseldorf +49 () smellies@savills.de Jürgen Schmid Investment Frankfurt +49 () jschmid@savills.de Sascha Hanekopf Investment Hamburg +49 () shanekopf@savills.de Elmar Wirths Investment Cologne +49 () ewirths@savills.de Dr. Frank Urfer Inv. Munich/Stuttgart +49 () furfer@savills.de Karsten Nemecek Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () knemecek@savills.de Draženko Grahovac Corp. Finance - Valuation +49 () dgrahovac@savills.de Jörg Krechky Retail Investment +49 () jkrechky@savills.de Bertrand Ehm Industrial Investment +49 () behm@savills.de Matthias Pink Research Germany +49 () mpink@savills.de Savills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company, established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows and now has over 7 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East with more than 31,5 employees worldwide. Savills is present in Germany with around 2 employees with seven offices in the most important estate sites Berlin, Dusseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Cologne, Munich and Stuttgart. This bulletin is for general informative purposes only. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The bulletin is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research. Savills January 217 savills.de/research 6