San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association. Investment Summary Quarter Ending June 30, 2017

Transcription

1 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Investment Summary Quarter Ending Allan Martin, Partner Don Stracke, CFA, CAIA, Senior Consultant Michael Malchenko, Senior Analyst 1

2 Market Environment Update and Outlook 2

3 Economic Environment Second quarter GDP growth rate (advance estimate) is estimated at 2.6%. Retail sales ended May at +4.2% on a YoY basis. In the same period last year the YoY growth rate was 1.6%. Corporate profits (ended January) as a percent of GDP decreased slightly to 9.1% from 9.2% (in October) and remain elevated relative to historical levels. The inventory-to-sales ratio ended May flat at 1.4 and has remained relatively flat since early The U.S. trade deficit declined by a meager 1.8% ended May as exports increased and imports decreased. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4% in Q2 from 4.5% in Q1; U-6, a broader measure of unemployment, decreased to 8.6% during the second quarter from 8.9%. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (ended May) increased to from in January and is at levels higher than that of pre-financial crisis levels of Rolling 12-month seasonally-adjusted CPI saw a down-tick to 1.6% at the end of June from 2.4% at the end of March; Capacity Utilization marginally increased to 76.6% in Q2 from 76.4% in Q1. Fed Funds rate was increased +0.25% to a targeted range of 1. - to 1.25%. The 10-year Treasury Yield (constant maturity) finished Q2 at 2.2% down from 2.5% in Q1. The Fed balance sheet decreased slightly during Q2 2017, while the European Central Bank balance sheet continues to increase. ECB held its benchmark refinance rate at, deposit rates -0.4% and asset purchases at 60 billion per month of corporate and public securities S&P valuations increased slightly in Q2 remaining above the 10-year and long-term averages. Cyclically adjusted Shiller PE ratio (29.7x) is above the long-term average of 16.7x and above the 10-year average of 23.0x. 3

4 Market Environment Q Overview Qtr. 1 Yr. 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 10 Yr. World Equity Benchmarks MSCI ACWI (Net) (USD) World 4.3% 18.8% 4.8% 10.5% 3.7% MSCI ACWI (Local) World (Local Currency) 3.1% 19.2% 7.6% 12.4% 4.3% Domestic Equity Benchmarks S&P 500 Large Core 3.1% 17.9% 9.6% 14.6% 7.2% Russell 1000 Large Core 3.1% % 14.7% 7.3% Russell 1000 Growth Large Growth 4.7% 20.4% 11.1% 15.3% 8.9% Russell 1000 Value Large Value 1.3% 15.5% 7.4% 13.9% 5.6% Russell 2000 Small Core 2.5% 24.6% 7.4% 13.7% 6.9% Russell 2000 Growth Small Growth 4.4% 24.4% 7.6% % Russell 2000 Value Small Value 0.7% 24.9% % 5.9% International Equity Benchmarks MSCI ACWI Ex USA World ex-us 5.8% 20.5% 0.8% 7.2% 1.1% MSCI EAFE (Net) (USD) Int'l Developed 6.1% 20.3% 1.1% 8.7% 1. MSCI EAFE (Local) Int'l Developed (Local Currency) 2.7% 22.1% % 2. S&P EPAC Small Cap Small Cap Int'l 8.9% 23.4% 5.9% 13.2% 3.6% MSCI EM Emerging Equity 6.3% 23.7% 1.1% % Domestic Fixed Income Benchmarks Barclays Aggregate Core Bonds 1.4% -0.3% 2.5% 2.2% 4.5% Barclays US High Yield High Yield 2.2% 12.7% 4.5% 6.9% 7.7% BofA ML US HY BB/B High Yield 2.2% 11.2% 4.5% 6.7% 7.1% CSFB Levered Loans Bank Loans 0.8% 7.5% 3.5% 4.8% 4.2% BofA ML US 3-Month T-Bill Cash 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% Barclays US TIPS 1-10 Yr Inflation -0.4% -0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6% Global Fixed Income Benchmarks Citigroup WGBI World Gov. Bonds 2.9% -4.1% % 3.5% Barclays Global Aggregate Global Core Bonds 2.6% -2.2% -0.4% 0.8% 3.7% BC Global Credit Global Bonds 3.4% 2.2% 0.9% 2.8% 4.3% JPM GBI-EM Glob. Diversified Em. Mkt. Bonds (Local Currency) 3.6% 6.4% -2.8% -0.7% 4. JPM EMBI+ Em. Mkt. Bonds 2.4% 3.7% 4.8% % Alternative Benchmarks Bloomberg Commodity Index Commodities % -14.8% -9.2% -6.5% Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index Hedge Fund 0.8% 5.8% 1.6% 4.5% 3.2% HFRI FoF Conservative Fund of Hedge Funds 0.5% 5.3% 1.5% 3.6% 0.8% Cambridge PE Lagged* Private Equity 4.3% 17.8% 10.3% 12.7% 9.8% NCREIF ODCE Net Lagged* Real Estate 1.5% 7.4% 10.8% 10.9% 4.6% Wilshire REIT Index REIT 1.8% -1.7% 8.3% 9.3% 5.6% CPI + 2% Inflation/Real Assets 0.5% 3.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.7% * As of 3/31/2017 4

5 Market Environment Global Equity U.S. equities as measured by the S&P 500 posted moderate gains in the second quarter (+3.1%). Small cap stocks underperformed large cap stocks during the quarter, with the Russell 2000 Index returning 2.5% and the Russell 1000 Index returning 3.1%. International equities outperformed U.S. markets during the quarter, returning 5.8%, as measured by the MSCI ACWI ex-u.s. Index. Emerging markets returned 6.3% as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in U.S. dollar terms. Developed international markets returned 6.1% in USD terms, while in local currency terms returned 2.7% as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index. Private Equity Capital commitment momentum continued in Q Private equity fundraising totaled $121 billion in Q North America focused private equity funds raised $67.5 billion. Asia focused private equity funds raised $18.2 billion. Europe focused private equity raised $32.5 billion. Private equity dry powder continued its increase to $906 billion ended Q2 up from $842 billion ended Q1. 5

6 Market Environment Fixed Income The nominal yield curve continued to flatten in Q2. Intermediate to- long term yields declined 4 to- 18 basis points across five to 30 year treasury bonds while short term yields increased 10 to- 27 basis points across terms under one year. The spread between two and 10 year rates decreased to 93 basis points from 113 basis points in Q2. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, returned -0.4% during the quarter, as measured by the BBg Barclays US TIPS 1-10 Yr Index. The BBg Barclays Long Duration Credit Index gained 4.7. Long Treasuries gained 3.96% and investment-grade US corporate debt gained 1.4%. The BBg Barclays 1-3 year US Government/ Credit Index returned 0.31%. US high yield bonds gained 2.2% driven by tighter spreads. Emerging markets debt had moderate to- strong gains. US dollar-denominated debt, as measured by the JP Morgan EMBI Index, gained 2.4%; local currency debt gained 3.6%, according to the JP Morgan GBI-EM BD Index. 6

7 Market Environment Real Assets/Inflation-Linked Assets Energy remains attractive despite volatile oil prices. Private equity and debt opportunities are attractive. Fire sale prices never materialized but focusing on assets outside of the hottest zip codes provides potential for strong returns as market normalizes. Infrastructure select opportunities to access growth markets. High quality assets are receiving premium bids from direct investors (Pension Funds and Sovereigns) with low costs of capital and long hold horizons; focus on mismanaged or niche opportunities. Metals & Mining have commodity prices bottomed? Peak capex occurred in 2012, lagging commodity price drops that began in Diverse demand drivers for underlying commodity prices. Timber low return potential and limited opportunity for outperformance. Agriculture near-term slowdown in price appreciation creates opportunity to invest in a strong (very) long term outlook supported by demographic trends. 7

8 Market Environment Commodities Commodities ended the quarter down 3. as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Agricultural commodities and energy price weakness contributed to the quarter s losses. Real Estate NEPC continues to be neutral on core real estate in the US and remains positive on non-core real estate, that is, value-add and opportunistic strategies. Real estate fundamentals (rent growth, occupancy, net absorption) remain strong; however, valuations are high on an absolute and relative basis. Rising interest rates have been baked into existing valuations but excess cap rate expansion (beyond general expectations) will reset valuations. Overall, the non-core real estate investment environment in the U.S. is normalizing; however, select areas remain attractive. Europe is viewed as the best place for a marginal dollar of non-core real estate investment. Current US-dollar denominated investors with currency exposure will feel near-term impact of Brexit, but new investors may benefit from a strong US-dollar. Long-term Brexit and broader European political instability, however, are unclear. 8

9 Key Market Themes Extended US Economic Cycle US recession concerns are muted The US economy appears on a path of slow but steady growth as excess capacity is gradually absorbed by the economy The labor market recovery has been strong but slack remains as many have yettoreturntotheworkforce Source: FRED US household balance sheets have room to expand and support further consumer spending gains Improvement of economic conditions in Europe and emerging markets reinforce US economic gains as global growth factors synchronize US corporate profitability is near all time highs and may be a challenge for companies to boost economic growth rate Source: Congressional Budget Office, Bloomberg 9

10 Key Market Themes Federal Reserve Gradualism The Federal Reserve is expected to slowly increase interest rates Expected path of Fed policy through 2019 matters more than timing of the next hike as the disconnect between market expectations and Fed signaling has grown A relatively accommodative Fed is likely to continue, unless there is a dramatic acceleration in inflation Reduction of the Fed balance sheet will likely be a gradual process The market impact is untested but the Fed has announced a specific schedule to not reinvest a portion of the balance sheet securities that mature Source: Fed, Bloomberg Politics could intersect with Fed policy as Fed Chair Janet Yellen s term is set to expire in February 2018 Source: Fed, Bloomberg, NEPC Forecast based on the June Fed Minutes: MBS assumes $4B per month for 3-month intervals over 12 months with a $20B cap; Treasuries assume $6B per month for 3-month intervals over 12 months with a $30B cap; Other Securities are assumed to stay constant 10

11 Despite Transparency, a Number of Outstanding Questions Remain What does this mean for the future path of rate hikes? The evolution of the economy will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate over time to achieve and maintain maximum employment and stable prices. - Fed Chair Janet Yellen July 12 th, 2017 What implications does this have for other central banks? ECB: A very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressures to gradually build ECB President Mario Draghi July 20 th, 2017 BoJ: Though the monetary stimulus program remained unchanged in July, the 2% inflation target was postponed further indicating ongoing stimulus measures will continue to be necessary 4.5% June Fed Dot Plot % % % % 0. Trillions (Balance Sheet Assets) $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ BoJ ECB FED 2019 Long Term Source: Fed, NEPC Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ECB, NEPC 11

12 The Fed s Challenge With further gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace over the next couple of years, with the job market strengthening somewhat further and inflation rising to 2% - Fed Chair Janet Yellen July 12 th, 2017 The ongoing challenge for the Fed will be to balance continued strength in the labor market with lagging inflation Even with sustained improvements in unemployment, there has been significant difficulty reaching the 2% inflation target Despite historically low unemployment, structural changes in demographics and the labor pool have introduced uncertainty regarding the remaining slack in the labor force YoY Real Wage Growth Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 6 59% Employment : Working Age Population 58% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Represents employed persons as a percentage of age 16+ population 12

13 Key Market Themes China Transitions China is the global growth engine but faces fundamental transitions China s economic transition is pivoting from a production to a service and consumption based economy 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3 Month SHIBOR Fixed investment is required to sustain the production based economy and support labor force migration Any disruption to these transitions will have global repercussions due to China s role in the global economy China s government is negotiating a balance between deleveraging and near term economic growth Unrestrained growth in credit and real estate markets pose a systematic risk Concerns of capital outflows have forced greater intervention from the central bank to limit currency movements 2% 1% % 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% Source: China Foreign Exchange Trade System, Bloomberg China Credit (as % of GDP) Household Credit (LHS) Non Financial Credit (RHS) % 165% 155% 145% 135% 125% 115% 105% 95% 85% 75% Source: Bank for International Settlements 13

14 Highlights of Second Quarter Happenings at NEPC NEPC Insights 2017 First Quarter Market Thoughts (April 2017) The French Election A Sigh of Relief (May 2017) An Insight into a Goals-Based Asset Allocation Framework (May 2017) The Essential Guide to Third-Party Valuations for Hedge Fund Investors (May 2017) Market Chatter: What s Next for Puerto Rico Bondholders? (June 2017) Are US Equities Falling out of Favor? (June 2017) Recent Updates Healthcare Financial Management Association (HFMA) has awarded NEPC s Healthcare practice with the Peer Reviewed by HFMA designation.* Webinar Replays NEPC s 7th Annual Investment Manager Webinar (May 2017) To download NEPC s recent insights and webinar replays, visit: NEPC Gives Back NEPC's Stacey Flier, CFA, Private Wealth Senior Consultant, hosted an educational day to discuss the importance of education and preparing for future careers to a group of 7th grade girls that attend St. Andrew Nativity School, a college-prep middle school in Portland, OR, that provides education for lowincome, primarily minority, students of all religious backgrounds. Conference Recap NEPC hosted its 22nd Annual Investment Conference in Boston in May. This year s agenda focused on the uncertainty and challenges facing investors today. Over 200 NEPC clients attended the panel discussions, keynote presentations and breakout sessions. Thank you to everyone who took time out of their schedules to make this conference our biggest and, according to our attendees, our best one yet! Check out some pictures from the event here: *HFMA staff and volunteers determined that this business solution has met specific criteria developed under the HFMA Peer Review Process. HFMA does not endorse or guarantee the use of this business solution. NEPC participated in the J.P. Morgan Corporate Challenge Series, a world-wide series of 3.5-mile running events open to groups from organizations within the business and public sectors in Boston. The Corporate Challenge is set up to be the world's greenest road race, and this year the race made a donation to the Boston Children's Hospital Trust. 14

15 Total Fund Performance 15

16 Total Fund Performance Summary (Gross) In the year ended the Fund returned 13.7% ranking in the 31 st percentile of Pubic Funds > $1Billion. The Fund's assets totaled $9.20 billion, an increase of $1.07 billion from a year ago. The Fund experienced a net investment gain of $1.13 billion in the year ended including a net investment gain of $242.6 million in the second calendar quarter. In the three year period ended the Fund returned 5.7% and ranked in the 46 th percentile among its peers. The Sharpe Ratio over this period of 1.5 ranks in the 1 st percentile, indicating that the Fund earned a much higher rate of return for each incremental unit of risk taken during the period versus its peers. In the five-year period ended the Fund returned 8.8% per annum and ranked in the 58 th percentile among its peers. On a risk adjusted basis the Fund s Sharpe and Sortino Ratios rank in the 1 st and 2 nd percentile indicating both strong returns per unit of risk taken and strong returns per unit of downside risk experienced when compared to a universe of public fund peers >$1B. Note: InvestorForce Public Funds >$1B Gross of Fee final universe contains 86 portfolios with $1.64 trillion in assets 16

17 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Performance Summary Statistics Summary 1 Year Ending Anlzd Return Anlzd Return Anlzd Standard Deviation Anlzd Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio Sortino Ratio Total Fund 13.7% % InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross Median _ 12.8% % Statistics Summary 3 Years Ending Anlzd Return Anlzd Return Anlzd Standard Deviation Anlzd Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio Sortino Ratio Total Fund 5.7% % InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross Median _ 5.4% % Statistics Summary 5 Years Ending Anlzd Return Anlzd Return Anlzd Standard Deviation Anlzd Standard Deviation Sharpe Ratio Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio Sortino Ratio Total Fund 8.8% % InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross Median _ 9.1% % XXXXX Sortino Ratio requires at least two negative points during the time period in order to calculate 17

18 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Asset Growth Summary Last Three Months One Year Five Years Ten Years Beginning Market Value $9,032,099,324 $8,128,956,525 $6,013,012,206 $6,206,502,583 Net Cash Flow -$77,588,093 -$63,712,564 $10,305,406 -$153,910,668 Net Investment Change $242,584,162 $1,131,851,432 $3,173,777,780 $3,144,503,477 Ending Market Value $9,197,095,393 $9,197,095,393 $9,197,095,393 $9,197,095,393 18

19 Total Fund Asset Allocation vs. Policy Targets % 6.6% 4.4% 14.5% 5.3% % % % % % *Net Notional Exposure as of 6/ % 1.6% % % 0.8% % 0.9% Policy Target 18.3% 17.8% 25.7% Universe Median *Net Notional Exposure *Net Notional Exposure as of 6/30 Policy Target *Difference Policy Ranges Within Range US Equities 1,538, % % 8%-18% Yes Int'l Equities 1,619, % % 1-2 Yes U.S. Core 525, % % -3%-7% Yes US Credit 1,013, %-18% Yes Non-US Core Fixed Income (367,884) %-6% Yes Non-US Credit 1,252, % % 6%-16% Yes Emerging Market Debt 335, % % 1%-11% Yes Real Estate 488, % % 4%-14% Yes Private Equity 1,335, % % 11%-21% Yes Real Assets 405, % % -1 Yes Absolute Return 607, % % 2%-12% Yes Cash 442, % % -1 Yes 9,197, US Equities U.S. Core Non US Core Fixed Income Emerging Market Debt Private Equity Int'l Equities US Credit Non US Credit Real Estate Real Assets *Net Notional Exposure is the combination of physical exposures as reported by State Street and the synthetic exposures reported by Russell. Universe Medians are a quarter lagged due to availability 19

20 SBCERA Delta Adjusted Asset Summary Source: Russell Investments 20

21 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk/Return 21

22 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe Total Fund vs. InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross (USD) 1 Year Sortino Ratio requires at least two negative points during the time period in order to calculate Sample size is 31 Portfolios 22

23 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe Total Fund vs. InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross (USD) 3 Years Sortino Ratio requires at least two negative points during the time period in order to calculate Sample size is 31 Portfolios 23

24 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk/Return 24

25 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe Total Fund vs. InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross (USD) 5 Years Sortino Ratio requires at least two negative points during the time period in order to calculate Sample size is 31 Portfolios 25

26 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics vs. Peer Universe Total Fund vs. InvestorForce Public DB > $1B Gross (USD) 10 Years Sortino Ratio requires at least two negative points during the time period in order to calculate Sample size is 31 Portfolios 26

27 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics 1 Years Ending % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Tracking Error Info Ratio Total Fund % % 2 2.7% Policy Index % % Domestic Equity 7.7% % 1 6.3% Russell % % International Developed 1.3% 5.4% % 1 6.9% MSCI EAFE % % International Emerging 5.2% 12.9% % % MSCI Emerging Markets % U.S. Credit Strategies 11.2% 10.8% 4 3.5% % Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index / 5 BofA ML US HY BB-B Rated Constrained Index % 8 2.2% Non-U.S. Credit Composite 13.5% 14.4% 4 3.3% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained % 6 8.1% Non-U.S. Core Composite BBgBarc Global Aggregate TR % % Emerging Markets Debt Composite 7.6% 14.9% 3 6.5% % JPM EMBI Global Diversified/5 JPM GBI - EM Global Diversified % % Alpha Pool Composite 19.4% 13.4% 2 3.2% % Day T-Bill + 3% % % XXXXX % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Private Equity Composite 14.5% 15.7% Cambridge Associates Global All PE (Qtr Lag) % % 57 Real Estate Composite 5.3% 3.4% % 80 NCREIF Property Index 1 Qtr Lag % Real Assets Composite 4.4% 2.3% % 31 Bloomberg Commodity Index % % 89 XXXXX Percent of Total equals 95% because Beta Overlay is not included as these statistics are not relevant for alternative asset classes. 27

28 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics 3 Years Ending % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Tracking Error Info Ratio Total Fund % % 2 3.3% Policy Index % % Domestic Equity 7.7% 0.5% % % Russell % % International Developed 1.3% 3.1% % % MSCI EAFE % % International Emerging 5.2% -1.6% % 5 5.2% MSCI Emerging Markets % % U.S. Credit Strategies 11.2% 5.5% 8 3.4% % Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index / 5 BofA ML US HY BB-B Rated Constrained Index % Non-U.S. Credit Composite 13.5% 5.8% 5 3.5% % BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained % % Non-U.S. Core Composite BBgBarc Global Aggregate TR % Emerging Markets Debt Composite 7.6% 5.3% % % JPM EMBI Global Diversified/5 JPM GBI - EM Global Diversified % % Alpha Pool Composite 19.4% 3.6% % % Day T-Bill + 3% % % XXXXX % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Private Equity Composite 14.5% 11.2% % 10 Cambridge Associates Global All PE (Qtr Lag) % % 29 Real Estate Composite 5.3% 9.5% % 34 NCREIF Property Index 1 Qtr Lag % % 48 Real Assets Composite 4.4% 0.3% % 56 Bloomberg Commodity Index % % 83 XXXXX Percent of Total equals 95% because Beta Overlay is not included as these statistics are not relevant for alternative asset classes. 28

29 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Risk Statistics 5 Years Ending % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Tracking Error Info Ratio Total Fund % % 2 3.2% Policy Index % % Domestic Equity 7.7% 2.5% % % Russell % % International Developed 1.3% 18.1% % % MSCI EAFE % % International Emerging 5.2% 1.9% % 5 4.4% MSCI Emerging Markets % U.S. Credit Strategies 11.2% % 4 3.9% Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index / 5 BofA ML US HY BB-B Rated Constrained Index % % Non-U.S. Credit Composite 13.5% 9.3% 5 3.5% 1 9.4% BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained % % Non-U.S. Core Composite BBgBarc Global Aggregate TR % % Emerging Markets Debt Composite 7.6% 4.8% % % JPM EMBI Global Diversified/5 JPM GBI - EM Global Diversified % % Alpha Pool Composite 19.4% 5.8% % % Day T-Bill + 3% % % XXXXX % of Tot Anlzd Ret Anlzd Std Dev Private Equity Composite 14.5% 13.1% % 11 Cambridge Associates Global All PE (Qtr Lag) % % 53 Real Estate Composite 5.3% 9.5% % 33 NCREIF Property Index 1 Qtr Lag % % 52 Real Assets Composite 4.4% 2.3% % 55 Bloomberg Commodity Index % % 82 XXXXX Percent of Total equals 95% because Beta Overlay is not included as these statistics are not relevant for alternative asset classes. 29

30 Global Equity Portfolio 30

31 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Global Equity Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Total Equity 1,309,557, MSCI ACWI Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB Total Eq Gross Median Domestic Equity 706,378, Russell Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB US Eq Gross Median Large Cap Equity 706,283, S&P Excess Return ea All US Equity Gross Median SsgA S&P ,978, S&P Excess Return ea All US Equity Gross Median Russell US Large Cap Volatility 13,304, S&P Excess Return ea All US Equity Gross Median Small Cap Equity 94, Russell Excess Return ea US Small Cap Equity Gross Median Russell US Small Cap Volatility 94, Russell Excess Return ea All US Equity Gross Median YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 31

32 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Global Equity Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo International Equity 603,178, MSCI EAFE Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB Glbl Eq Gross Median International Developed 122,286, MSCI EAFE Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB Dev Mkt ex-us Eq Gross Median Russell International Volatility 122,286, MSCI EAFE Excess Return ea All EAFE Equity Gross Median International Emerging 480,891, MSCI Emerging Markets Excess Return Mondrian 136,796, MSCI Emerging Markets Excess Return ea Emg Mkts Equity Gross Median Gramercy Emerging Market Equity 76,873, MSCI Emerging Markets Excess Return ea Emg Mkts Equity Gross Median Tobam 267,122, MSCI Emerging Markets Excess Return ea Emg Mkts Equity Gross Median YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 32

33 Global Debt Portfolio 33

34 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Global Debt Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Total Fixed 2,961,852, InvestorForce Public DB Total Fix Inc Gross Median U.S. Credit Strategies 1,030,092, Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index / 5 BofA ML US HY BB-B Rated Constrained Index Excess Return BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II TR ea Global Credit Fixed Income Gross Median AG Capital 1,054, Golden Tree Asset Management 373,691, Beach Point Capital (Formerly Post) 143,314, Golden Tree Distressed Debt 28,437, Mackay / Gold Coast 103,985, Mariner Tricadia 68,476, MD SASS Waterfall Victoria 28,135, Russell Interest Rate Hedging 25,614, Stone Tower Credit (Apollo) 80,874, Gold Coast Capital IV 94,226, Waterfall Asset Management 39,438, Waterfall Victoria 42,584, YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 34

35 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Global Debt Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Non-U.S. Fixed Income Composite 1,931,759, BBgBarc Global Aggregate TR Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB Total Fix Inc Gross Median Non-U.S. Credit Composite 1,237,359, BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained Excess Return Marathon/Gold Coast 196,269, Alcentra Core European Credit 399,135, Halcyon Asset Management 151,471, BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained Excess Return ea Global Credit Fixed Income Gross Median Oaktree Capital 2, York Global Credit 148,366, BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained Excess Return ea Global Credit Fixed Income Gross Median Cairn Composite 342,114, BofA Merrill Lynch Euro High Yield Constrained Excess Return ea Global Credit Fixed Income Gross Median YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 35

36 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Global Debt Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Emerging Markets Debt Composite 694,400, JPM EMBI Global Diversified/5 JPM GBI - EM Global Diversified Excess Return ea All Emg Mkts Fixed Inc Gross Median Ashmore Emerging Markets Liquid Investments 168,143, JP Morgan GBI - EM Global Diversified Index Excess Return ea All Emg Mkts Fixed Inc Gross Median Ashmore Local Currency 86,233, JP Morgan ELMI Excess Return JP Morgan EMBI Global Index ea All Global Fixed Inc Gross Median Gramercy Funds Management LLC 344,102, JP Morgan ELMI Excess Return JP Morgan EMBI Global Index ea All Emg Mkts Fixed Inc Gross Median Prudential Investment Management 95,920, JP Morgan ELMI Excess Return JP Morgan EMBI Global Index ea All Emg Mkts Fixed Inc Gross Median YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 36

37 Absolute Return Portfolio (Alpha Pool) 37

38 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Alpha Pool Strategies Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Alpha Pool Composite 1,781,239, Day T-Bill + 3% Excess Return Alpha Liquidity (Ssga) 156,509, Apollo Global Management 31,947, Apollo SCRF III 24,599, Ares Eco Master Fund II 218,208, Ares Strategic Investment 218,275, Birch Grove Credit Strategies 116,400, Sterling Stamos 213,975, Stone Tower Off (Apollo) 374,798, Zais 129,361, Zais Group Invest Advisors 237,266, Zais Zephyr A 6 LP 30,018, Apollo Accord 4,505, YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 38

39 Private Equity Portfolio 39

40 Real Estate Portfolio 40

41 Real Assets Portfolio 41

42 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Alternatives Performance Detail - Gross Market Value ($) % of Portfolio 3 Mo Private Equity Composite 1,335,427, Cambridge Associates Global All PE (Qtr Lag) Excess Return Russell Cambridge Associates US All PE (1 Qtr Lag) Real Estate Composite 488,295, NCREIF Property Index 1 Qtr Lag Excess Return InvestorForce Public DB Real Estate Pub+Priv Gross Median Pramerica Real Estate Capital VI 6,464, FPA SB Hunter 75, ea US REIT Gross Median Real Assets Composite 405,996, Bloomberg Commodity Index Excess Return NCREIF Timberland 1 Qtr Lag Timber 187,266, NCREIF Timberland 1 Qtr Lag Excess Return Infrastructure 73,502, Russell Excess Return Commodities 145,226, Bloomberg Commodity Index Excess Return XXXXX YTD 1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 42

43 Appendix: Private Equity and Real Estate Performance 43

44 Real Estate Performance Ended March 31, 2017 Investment Name Vintage Year Commitment Amount Paid in Capital Cumulative Distributions Valuation IRR TVPI Ratio American Realty Advisors 1996 $ 128,009,773 $ 128,009,773 $ 108,098,126 $ 170,028, % 2.17 American Realty Value Add 2006 $ 13,125,215 $ 13,125,215 $ 32,065,484 $ 75, % 2.45 Apollo US Real Estate Fund II 2015 $ 20,000,000 $ 11,671,912 $ 2,236,405 $ 11,961, % 1.21 Beacon Capital Strategic Partners IV, L.P $ 39,000,000 $ 38,000,000 $ 30,085,408 $ 1,330, % 0.83 Beacon Capital Strategic Partners V, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 18,000,000 $ 11,030,231 $ 154, % 0.62 BlackRock Diamond Property Fund 2005 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 15,093,876 $ 81, % 0.61 Bryanston Real Estate Opportunity Fund II, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 8,589,256 $ 11,824,142 $ 47, % 1.38 Bryanston Retail Opportunity Fund, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 8,228,165 $ 18,492,031 $ 9,237, % 3.37 CBRE Strategic Partners III 2003 $ 10,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 12,698,783 $ 8.02% 1.27 CBRE Strategic Partners IV 2005 $ 40,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 2,432,836 $ 1,381, % 0.1 Fillmore East Fund 2006 $ 25,000,000 $ 31,403,818 $ 20,777,177 $ 9.78% 0.66 Fillmore West Fund 2008 $ 20,000,000 $ 19,561,557 $ 12,339,042 $ 9,481, % 1.12 Fortress Japan Opportunity Fund II 2012 $ 21,739,130 $ 7,179,780 $ 7,016,858 $ 16,343, % 3.22 Hancock Timberland VII 2005 $ 90,000,000 $ 90,000,000 $ 12,105,900 $ 93,853, % 1.18 Hancock Timberland VIII 2006 $ 40,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 4,021,950 $ 34,379, % 0.96 Highstar Capital III, L.P 2007 $ 60,000,000 $ 59,119,119 $ 34,006,811 $ 33,609, % 1.14 Invesco Asian Real Estate Partners II (USD), LP 2007 $ 20,000,000 $ 8,393,368 $ 9,645,314 $ 1,724, % 1.36 Invesco High Yield Debt Fund I 2007 $ 20,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 8,567,605 $ 35.57% 0.43 Invesco Real Estate Asia Fund 2014 $ 51,732,500 $ 51,732,500 $ 4,603,874 $ 60,189, % 1.24 INVESCO Real Estate Fund I 2005 $ 10,000,000 $ 9,248,390 $ 10,000,208 $ 18, % 1.08 LaSalle Income & Growth Fund IV 2005 $ 20,000,000 $ 19,469,417 $ 13,482,024 $ 5.51% 0.69 North Haven Real Estate Fund V International 2005 $ 27,500,000 $ 27,377,414 $ 31,743,090 $ 1,666, % 1.22 Oaktree Real Estate Opportunities V 2012 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 30,125,000 $ 9,045, % 1.56 Partners Group RE Secondary 2013 (USD) A 2014 $ 65,000,000 $ 32,040,740 $ 7,750,376 $ 37,755, % 1.41 Prologis Japan Fund 2005 $ 25,290,819 $ 25,290,819 $ 33,126,118 $ 4.81% 1.31 Prudential PRISA II 2004 $ 100,000,441 $ 100,000,441 $ 34,394,180 $ 114,045, % 1.41 Prudential PRISA III 2003 $ 40,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 39,373,383 $ 35,264, % 1.72 RREEF America REIT III 2004 $ 20,000,000 $ 20,539,309 $ 23,555,134 $ 110, % 1.15 Square Mile Partners II 2007 $ 20,000,000 $ 19,831,232 $ 5,247,159 $ 338, % 0.28 Square Mile Partners III LP 2008 $ 20,000,000 $ 19,721,680 $ 25,971,268 $ 3,304, % 1.48 Starwood Capital Hospitality Fund I $ 30,000,000 $ 30,000,000 $ 24,291,034 $ 5,632, % 1 Starwood Debt Fund II, LP 2008 $ 20,000,000 $ 17,599,882 $ 21,858,788 $ 59, % 1.25 Starwood Opportunity Fund VII A 2006 $ 25,000,000 $ 25,000,000 $ 12,243,387 $ 7,747, % 0.8 Structured Real Estate III, LP (Guggenheim) 2008 $ 20,000,000 $ 20,000,000 $ 16,320,664 $ 4.99% 0.82 Timbervest Crossover Partners II, L.P $ 30,000,000 $ 30,000,000 $ 11,160,000 $ 18,316, % 0.98 Timbervest Partners II, L.P $ 50,000,000 $ 50,000,000 $ 9,000,000 $ 45,287, % 1.09 Tri Continental Capital VII 2005 $ 23,000,000 $ 22,343,057 $ 1,586,367 $ 1,597, % 0.14 Tuckerman Multi Family Development Fund III 2002 $ 10,000,000 $ 10,219,311 $ 16,939,699 $ 26.67% 1.66 Walton Street Real Estate Fund IV, LP 2003 $ 10,000,000 $ 9,770,890 $ 15,630,801 $ 451, % 1.65 Walton Street Real Estate Fund V, LP 2006 $ 40,000,000 $ 40,000,000 $ 17,359,244 $ 14,817, % 0.8 Note: all metrics are calculated since inception * Denotes cash adjusted 44

45 Private Equity Performance Ended March 31, 2017 Investment Name Vintage Commitment Cumulative Paid in Capital Year Amount Distributions Valuation IRR TVPI Ratio Apollo European Principal Finance Fund (Feeder), LP 2009 $ 53,445,695 $ 46,373,293 $ 68,193,403 $ 1,209, % 1.50 Apollo Investment Fund VII, L.P $ 10,000,000 $ 8,458,621 $ 14,594,835 $ 2,866, % 2.07 Apollo PCPL Webb V* 2010 $ 4,844,398 $ 4,844,398 $ 5,196,757 $ 50, % 1.08 Apollo PCPL Webb VIII* 2010 $ 4,734,303 $ 4,734,303 $ 12,146,258 $ 2, % 2.57 ARES European Loan Opp Fund 2015 $ 15,000,000 $ 8,413,136 $ 7,613,498 $ 6.02% 0.90 Ares Special Situations Fund IV, LP 2015 $ 50,000,000 $ 14,884,488 $ 65,594 $ 9,483, % 0.64 Aurora Equity Partners III, L.P $ 25,000,000 $ 23,544,536 $ 41,738,196 $ 1,342, % 1.71 Aurora Equity Partners IV, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 15,882,665 $ 12,425,994 $ 21,271, % 1.85 Aurora Resurgence Fund, L.P $ 15,000,000 $ 5,653,009 $ 10,350,965 $ Baring Asia Private Equity Fund IV, L.P $ 2,931,918 $ 2,922,361 $ 526,859 $ 2,554, % 1.05 BNY Mellon Alcentra Mezzanine III* 2012 $ 25,000,000 $ 23,254,658 $ 26,583,881 $ 46, % 1.15 Catalyst Fund II, L.P $ 10,000,000 $ 9,934,668 $ 4,256,332 $ 17,946, % 2.22 Catalyst Fund LP IV, L.P $ 8,000,000 $ 3,075,610 $ $ 3,430, % 1.11 Charlesbank Equity Fund VIII 2015 $ 7,500,000 $ 4,795,405 $ 422,938 $ 4,798, % 1.09 DRI II, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 19,917,669 $ 26,302,807 $ 19.64% 1.33 European Strategic Partners $ 239,751,355 $ 220,597,962 $ 243,675,337 $ 29,626, % 1.24 European Strategic Partners $ 31,068,585 $ 26,755,220 $ 12,051,110 $ 20,837, % 1.22 Industry Ventures Direct, LP 2016 $ 25,000,000 $ 3,962,897 $ $ 3,824, % 0.97 Industry Ventures Fund V 2008 $ 10,000,000 $ 9,500,000 $ 20,712,664 $ 8,252, Industry Ventures Fund VI 2011 $ 20,000,000 $ 18,400,000 $ 11,876,040 $ 12,980, % 1.35 Industry Ventures Partnership Holdings Fund II, L.P $ 25,000,000 $ 22,750,000 $ 5,231,047 $ 41,392, % 2.05 Industry Ventures Partnership Holdings Fund III, L.P $ 25,000,000 $ 18,750,000 $ 2,252,340 $ 20,861, % 1.23 Industry Ventures Partnership Holdings Fund III A, L.P $ 12,500,000 $ 10,437,500 $ 3,352,672 $ 8,887, % 1.17 Industry Ventures Partnership Holdings IV, LP 2016 $ 25,000,000 $ 2,625,000 $ $ 2,715, % 1.03 Industry Ventures Secondary VII, L.P $ 25,000,000 $ 20,125,000 $ 2,854,366 $ 21,247, % 1.20 Industry Ventures Secondary VIII 2017 $ 25,000,000 $ 300,000 $ $ 320, % 1.07 Insight Venture Partners III Co Invest 2014 $ 4,000,000 $ 3,844,000 $ $ 4,919, % 1.28 Note: all metrics are calculated since inception * Denotes Cash adjusted value 45

46 Private Equity Performance Ended March 31, 2017 Investment Name Vintage Year Commitment Cumulative Paid in Capital Amount Distributions Valuation IRR TVPI Ratio Lexington Capital Partners VI B 2006 $ 25,000,000 $ 24,591,319 $ 28,069,572 $ 6,067, % 1.39 Lexington Capital Partners VII (Offshore) 2011 $ 25,000,000 $ 19,788,432 $ 19,936,288 $ 10,503, Lexington Middle Market I 2005 $ 25,000,000 $ 24,771,942 $ 32,806,394 $ 6,279, % 1.58 Lexington Middle Market II Offshore 2008 $ 10,000,000 $ 9,773,736 $ 9,137,872 $ 5,540, % 1.50 Madison Dearborn VII 2016 $ 10,000,000 $ 1,723,707 $ $ 1,620, % 0.94 NB Secondary Opportunities I, LP 2005 $ 20,000,000 $ 18,500,843 $ 21,646,835 $ 2,806, % 1.32 NB Secondary Opportunities II, LP 2008 $ 20,000,000 $ 16,962,076 $ 21,411,053 $ 5,521, % 1.56 Partners Group Access 632, L.P $ 2,782,028 $ 2,782,028 $ $ 4,350, % 1.55 Partners Group Access 648, L.P $ 4,348,772 $ 4,028,602 $ 19,449 $ 3,050, % 0.76 Partners Group Access 680 L.P $ 7,272,688 $ 7,206,011 $ $ 7,916, % 1.10 Partners Group CA Infrastructure, LP Inc 2016 $ 6,246,500 $ 878,461 $ $ 875, % 1.00 Partners Group Client Access 8 LP 2014 $ 5,531,585 $ 5,531,585 $ 6,978,396 $ 20,619, % 4.99 Partners Group Direct Equity 2016 USD A 2016 $ 20,000,000 $ 5,208,094 $ $ 5,279, % 1.01 Partners Group Direct Investment 2012, L.P $ 18,086,936 $ 16,509,621 $ 7,235,860 $ 16,808, % 1.46 Partners Group European Mandate, L.P $ 235,756,909 $ 196,136,552 $ 218,640,610 $ 43,427, % 1.34 Partners Group European Mezzanine $ 101,076,654 $ 101,076,654 $ 113,039,782 $ 15,558, % 1.27 Partners Group Princess Learning IC LTD 2014 $ 8,332,516 $ 5,814,832 $ 1,550,144 $ 4,898, % 1.11 Partners Group Seabras Holdings, LLC 2015 $ 4,800,000 $ 3,193,156 $ $ 3,212, % 1.01 Partners Group Secondary 2006 LP 2006 $ 54,276,646 $ 51,077,528 $ 50,128,084 $ 9,791, % 1.17 Partners Group Secondary 2008, L.P $ 26,481,675 $ 23,690,725 $ 28,085,806 $ 6,389, % 1.45 Partners Group Starfrost Limited 2014 $ 6,135,894 $ 3,736,806 $ $ 5,291, Pathway Private Equity Fund VII, L.P $ 904,500,000 $ 782,727,751 $ 793,593,410 $ 476,298, % 1.59 Siguler Guff DOF II 2006 $ 30,000,000 $ 30,000,000 $ 41,624,855 $ 759, % 1.42 Siguler Guff DOF III 2008 $ 10,000,000 $ 9,700,000 $ 12,338,779 $ 2,894, % 1.57 SL Capital SOF I LP 2014 $ 25,000,000 $ 17,346,556 $ 2,423,643 $ 18,592, % 1.21 TCP Direct Lending Fund VIII L, LLC 2016 $ 40,000,000 $ 9,379,855 $ $ 9,651, % 1.03 TCW/Crescent Mezzanine IV, L.P $ 40,000,000 $ 39,590,976 $ 43,109,680 $ 1,506, % 1.13 TCW/Crescent Mezzanine V, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 19,949,723 $ 23,828,706 $ 2,643, % 1.33 Tennenbaum Energy Opportunities Fund, LP 2016 $ 20,000,000 $ 5,383,007 $ 764,143 $ 5,761, % 1.21 Tennenbaum Opportunities Fund V, L.P $ 10,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ 10,049,688 $ 4,143, % 1.42 Tennenbaum Opportunities Fund VI, L.P $ 20,000,000 $ 13,822,641 $ 7,856,626 $ 13,170, % 1.52 Tennenbaum Special Situations Fund IX 2015 $ 50,000,000 $ 21,837,087 $ 1,557,402 $ 22,892, Tennenbaum Waterman Fund, LP 2012 $ 70,000,000 $ 70,000,000 $ 22,507,234 $ 74,983, % 1.39 The Resolute Fund II 2016 $ 1,720,184 $ 1,442,018 $ 197,102 $ 1,335, % 1.06 The Resolute Fund III 2014 $ 8,000,000 $ 3,948,500 $ 58,401 $ 5,141, % 1.32 Thoma Bravo XI 2014 $ 8,000,000 $ 7,845,858 $ $ 9,392, % 1.20 Thoma Bravo XII 2016 $ 10,000,000 $ 3,679,884 $ $ 3,494, % 0.95 Vista Foundation Fund III 2016 $ 10,000,000 $ 1,135,708 $ $ 925, % 0.81 Note: all metrics are calculated since inception * Denotes Cash adjusted value 46

47 Appendix: Market Environment 47

48 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Return Summary vs. Peer Universe 48

49 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Fiscal Year Ending 6/30 Total Fund Return Summary vs. Peer Universe 49

50 San Bernardino County Employees' Retirement Association Total Fund Allocations vs. Peer Universe 50

51 Long Term Broad Market Performance Summary as of 06/30/2017 Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, Russell, MSCI, Barclays, JP Morgan 51

52 US Economic Indicators 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Inflation continues to decline, while capacity utilization trends upward 1% CPI (LHS) 2% Capacity Utilization (RHS) 3% % 8 75% 7 65% 6 Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment is still declining 18% 16% US Unemployment U 6 Unemployment 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics Corporate profits fall off recent highs Manufacturing growth hit a multi-year high 13% 65 12% 11% 1 9% Corporate Profits (% of GDP) US ISM PMI 8% 45 7% 6% Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis Source: Bloomberg, Institute for Supply Management 52

53 International Economic Indicators Eurozone inflation fell to 1.4%, remaining below the 2% target 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% Japan CPI Euro CPI Source: Bloomberg, Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Eurostat YoY % Change in Manufacturing 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% Manufacturing has fallen, though still remains elevated Germany France Italy Japan Source: Bloomberg, OECD, Eurostat 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Japan unemployment increased off previous month lows Europe Unemployment Japan Unemployment Source: Bloomberg, Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Eurostat OECD Leading Indicator SA UK leading indicators have begun to decline 99.0 Euro Area Japan 98.0 UK Canada Source: Bloomberg, OECD 53

54 Emerging Market Economic Indicators EM inflation varies by country Relatively healthy debt/gdp ratios CPI Most Recent 1 Yr Previous Brazil China Mexico South Africa Russia India Turkey Source: Bloomberg Gross Gov't Debt as % of GDP Mexico Brazil South Africa Turkey China Russia India Source: Bloomberg, IMF Account Balance (% of GDP) Account balances remain steady 15% 1 5% 5% 1 Mexico Brazil 15% South Africa Turkey India China 2 Russia Source: Bloomberg GDP PPP as % of World EM continues trending higher as a percent of global output Developed Emerging Source: Bloomberg, IMF 54

55 Volatility Equity volatility remains low VIX Index Source: Bloomberg, CBOE Currency volatility increased off recent lows CVIX Index Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank Treasury volatility has recently subsided MOVE Index Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch Commodity volatility continues to decline Bloomberg Commodity 90D Vol Source: Bloomberg, Merrill Lynch 55

56 Central Banks Trillions (balance sheet assets) The ECB balance sheet continues growing $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 FED ECB BoJ Short-term interest rate has increased with recent rate hike Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, ECB, NEPC Ex-US developed market rates are broadly lower than the previous year Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve EM central bank policies vary by countryspecific economic conditions Australia Canada ECB Japan New Zealand Norway Singapore Switzerland UK US 1 Year Previous Current Turkey South Korea South Africa Russia Poland Mexico Malaysia Indonesia India China Brazil 1 Year Previous Current % % % % % 4. Target Central Bank Rate Source: Bloomberg Target Central Bank Rate Source: Bloomberg 56

57 Global Equity PE Ratio Profit Margins EAFE valuations remain lower than the previous year Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, MSCI *MSCI EAFE is ex UK Telecom *Standard deviation calculations on 20 years of data except S&P 500 (30 years) 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% +1 Std Dev 1 St Dev 6/30/2016 6/30/2017 S&P 500 MSCI EM MSCI EAFE MSCI ACWI Profit margins continue to improve S&P 500 MSCI EM MSCI EAFE MSCI ACWI Source: Bloomberg, MSCI Rolling 12 Mo Change in EBIT Rolling annual earnings growth continues trending upward off contraction S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, MSCI Equities have experienced positive shortterm performance 25% 2 15% 1 5% 3 Month Return 1 Year Return S&P 500 MSCI EAFE MSCI EM MSCI ACWI MSCI ACWI IMI Source: Bloomberg, MSCI 57

58 US Equity PE Ratio US equity valuations remain elevated relative to last year +1 Std Dev 1 St Dev 6/30/2016 6/30/2017 S&P 500 Russell 2000 Russell 1000 Growth Russell 1000 Value Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, Russell *Russell 2000 PE is index adjusted positive* Standard deviation calculations based on 20 years of data Profit Margins 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% Profit margins experience an uptick S&P 500 Russell Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, Russell Real GDP growth declined significantly from the previous quarter US Real GDP Growth % 2 15% 1 5% Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis US equity continues to post positive returns 3 Month Return 1 Year Return 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% S&P 500 Russell 2500 Russell 2000 Russell 1000 Russell 1000 Growth Value Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors, Russell 58

59 International Equity UK and Europe PEs remain below previous year levels 60 International growth has steadied 15% PE Ratio Std Dev 1 St Dev 6/30/2016 6/30/ % Europe Japan United Kingdom Eurozone Japan UK % 1 15% 2017 Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, FTSE *UK represented by FTSE 100 Index *Standard deviation calculations based on 20 years of data, with Europe since 12/1998 Profit margins continue trending higher Source: Bloomberg Strong short-term performance for EAFE Profit Margins 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% MSCI EAFE Euro Japan UK 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 3 Month Return 1 Year Return MSCI EAFE MSCI EAFE (Local) MSCI EAFE SC MSCI EAFE SC (Local) Source: Bloomberg, MSCI Source: Bloomberg, MSCI 59

60 Emerging Markets Equity PE Ratio India s valuation fell below the previous year, though still remains elevated Brazil 06/30 PE: Std Dev 1 St Dev 6/30/2016 6/30/2017 China Brazil South Africa Russia India South Korea Source: Bloomberg, MSCI *Standard deviation calculations based on 20 years of data, with Russia since 01/1998 Profit margins continue trending upward Brazil continues to rebound off earnings contraction Brazil India Russia China Source: Bloomberg EM posts strong short-term returns 2 15% 1 5% 5% 1 15% Profit Margins 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% MSCI EM MSCI EM 3 Month Return 1 Year Return MSCI EM (Local) MSCI EM Small Cap MSCI EM Small Cap (Local) MSCI Frontier Source: Bloomberg, MSCI Source: Bloomberg, MSCI 60

61 Global Equity by Sector Ex-energy and telecom, MSCI ACWI has posted broad short-term returns 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 5% 1 3 Month Return 1 Year Return Energy and telecom sectors drag S&P 500 short-term returns Month Return 1 Year Return Source: Bloomberg, MSCI MSCI EM short-term returns have been lead by Info Tech 3 Month Return 1 Year Return Sector Weight of ACWI Source: Bloomberg, Standard and Poors Financials sector weight has decreased in favor of Info Tech and Industrials 25% 2 15% 1 5% 6/30/2017 6/30/2016 Source: Bloomberg, MSCI Source: Bloomberg, MSCI 61

62 Currencies Many currencies have appreciated against the dollar due to recent USD weakness 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 Source: Bloomberg USD expectations vary across developed markets Australian Dollar Canadian Dollar 3 Month Spot Change 1 Year Spot Change Euro Japanese Yen 3M Currency Forward 12M Currency Forward Swiss Franc Pound Sterling EM currencies remain mixed relative to the dollar 15% 1 5% 5% 1 15% 2 25% Month Spot Change 1 Year Spot Change Source: Bloomberg The dollar continues trending downward Change versus USD USD Trade Weighted Index 3. Euro Yen British Pound Swiss Franc Aus Dollar Yuan (O/S) Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve 62

63 US Fixed Income Spread (bps) Yield Spreads remain lower than the previous year Source: Bloomberg, Barclays *Standard deviation calculations based on 20 years of data Similar duration/yield profiles among core indices 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% +2 Std Dev +1 Std Dev 1 St Dev 6/30/2016 6/30/2017 Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa BC Agg BC Credit BC High Yield BC MBS BC Municipal BC TIPS BC US Treasury 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Yields have declined slightly relative to three months prior Month End Yield 3 Month Previous Yield Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Ex-TIPS, fixed income indices post positive short-term returns 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 3 Month Return 1 Year Return Duration Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Source: Bloomberg, Barclays 63

64 International Developed Fixed Income OAS or Equivalent (bps) Ex-Italy, periphery yields have declined over the year relative to Germany EuroAgg Corp Pan Euro HY 5 Year Italy 5 Year Portugal 5 Year Spain 6/30/2017 6/30/2016 BC Asia IG BC Asia HY 10 Yr Govt Yield Yields continue to rise in the UK as a result of heightened political uncertainty % % % % Month End Yield 3 Month Previous Yield 1 Year Previous Yield Germany France Italy Spain Japan UK Australia Source: Barclays, Bloomberg, *European periphery spreads are over equivalent German Bund Source: Bloomberg Yield Low yields persist in global bond universe % % % % % 1. BC Global Agg BC Pan Euro HY BC Multiverse BC Global Infl Linked BC EuroAgg Duration Source: Bloomberg, Citigroup, Barclays 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Global bonds post strong short-term returns BC Global Agg (Unhedged) BC Global (Hedged) BC Global Agg ex US (Unhedged) BC Global Agg ex US (Hedged) 3 Month Return 1 Year Return BC Multiverse BC Glob Infl Linked Source: Bloomberg, Citigroup, Barclays 64

65 Emerging Markets Fixed Income Spread in bps EM spreads remain steady EMBI Glob Div EMBI Glob Div IG EMBI Glob Div HY CEMBI Div Broad IG CEMBI Div Broad HY 10 Yr Local Govt Yield Brazil s bond yields have increased with concerns over President Michel Temer 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Month End Yield 3 Month Previous Yield 1 Year Previous Yield Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan Source: Bloomberg Yield EM yields remain attractive versus global counterparts 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% JPM EMBI Composite JPM GBI EM Glob Div CEMBI IG CEMBI HY EMBI HY EMBI IG Duration Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan EM debt posts strong positive short-term returns 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% 3% JPM EMBI Glob Div JPM GBI EM Glob Div 3 Month Return 1 Year Return CEMBI IG CEMBI HY ELMI+ Comp Source: Bloomberg, JP Morgan 65

66 Rates Short-term rate expectations increased with long-term rates declining slightly Interest rate expectations have increased relative to prior months UK Month End Japan Month End Germ Month End UK 3M Previous Japan 3M Previous Germ 3M Previous Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10 Y 15 Y 20 Y 25 Y 30 Y % % % % 10-2 spreads continue tightening US 10 Yr 2 Yr Japan 10 Yr 2 Yr Germany 10 Yr 2 Yr Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% Source: Bloomberg Sovereign bond yields increased, though remain in negative or neutral territory Japan 10 Yr Japan 2 Yr Germany 10 Yr Germany 2 Yr Source: Bloomberg 66

67 Long Rates and Liability 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Long duration yields have steadied BC US Long Corp A+ BC US Long Credit BC Yr STRIPS BC US Long Treasury 1% Long credit yield (by component) 1 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Long credit yield remains in line with previous years Spread (US Long Credit Yield) US Long Credit OAS Source: Bloomberg, Citigroup, Barclays Yield and spread components continue to offer modest returns 4.5% % % % % 0. US Corp Spread US Gov't Yield 1 3 Year 3 5 Year 5 10 Year Long Term Source: Bloomberg, Barclays 8% 6% 4% 2% 2% 4% 6% 8% 1 12% Source: Bloomberg, US Treasury, Barclays, NEPC Long duration fixed income posts shortterm gains Yr STRIPs US Agg Long Treas US Long Credit US Long Govt/Credit 3 Month Return 1 Year Return US Long Credit A+ Long Corp A+ Source: Bloomberg, Barclays 67

68 Inflation and Real Rates US real yields continue to increase Source: Bloomberg US inflation expectations have decreased off of post US election highs y5y US Breakeven 1.5 Jul 14 Nov 14Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15Mar 16 Jul 16 Nov 16Mar 17 French yields have declined following the election of Emmanuel Macron 1.5% % % % % Inflation Breakeven US 10 Yr Germany 10 Yr Britain 10 Yr France 10 Yr Month End 3 Mo Previous Australia 10 Yr Japan 10 Yr Source: Bloomberg Inflation expectations have started to decline % % % % US 10 Yr Germany 10 Yr France 10 Yr UK 10 Yr Australia 10 Yr Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 68