COLBÚN PRESENTATION BTG Pactual IV Andean CEO Conference 2015 November 2015

Transcription

1 COLBÚN PRESENTATION BTG Pactual IV Andean CEO Conference 215 November 215 1

2 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 2

3 SECTOR SEGMENTATION 1 3 SUB-SECTORS 2 4 SEPARATED GRIDS GENERATION SING Antofagasta Tal-Tal SIC Arica 4,34 MW - 25% 17,23 GWh - 25% 15,85 MW - 75% TRANSMISSION Regulated sectors (concessions) 52,27 GWh - 74% Santiago DISTRIBUTION Castro SEA Chaitén 5 MW - % RELEVANT INSTITUTIONS Ministry of Energy Cochrane 155 GWh - % Regulator: CNE Supervisor: SEC Coordinator: CDEC SAM Pto. Natales Pto. Williams 1 MW - % 291 GWh - % Source: CNE, December 214 3

4 MARKET STRUCTURE GENERATORS Main Players in the Generation Sector-SIC (Market Share by Installed Capacity) 36% REGULATED CUSTOMERS UNREGULATED CUSTOMERS SPOT MARKET 21% 26% DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES FREE CUSTOMERS CDEC 17% >15 players Regulated Auction Tariffs Unregulated Auction Tariffs Marginal Cost /Spot Price Endesa Colbún Gener Others Source: Colbún Dec14 4

5 Spot Market Price USD/MWh Annual Power Generation SIC TWh GENERATION AND PRICE DEVELOPMENT IN CHILE S CENTRAL GRID Development based on hydro + competitive natural gas Fixed prices power purchase agreements (set by regulator for distribution company clients) LNG re-gasification terminal since 29 Coal- fired power plants PPA tenders with price indexation ~9% of the energy is generated with base load power plants Others Diesel-Fuel LNG Coal Gas Hydro Average Spot Market Price USD/MWh Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5

6 jan-14 feb-14 mar-14 apr-14 may-14 jun-14 jul-14 aug-14 sep-14 oct-14 nov-14 dec-14 jan-15 feb-15 mar-15 apr-15 may-15 jun-15 jul-15 aug-15 sep-15 oct-15 SIC OVERVIEW 1 2 Others 8% Diesel Natural 5% Gas 17% Coal 28% Generation Matrix (Acc) Hydro 42% Others Diesel 7% 3% Natural Gas 2% Coal 28% Hydro 42% Marginal Cost Monthly Average (USD/MWh) Acc Oct15 12 Acc Oct Oct14 Oct15 3 SIC Reservoir water level as % of 4 total capacity 4% 2% % oct14-oct15 oct13-oct14 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Electricity Demand Growth (Average LTM) 1.6% Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) CNE and CDEC-SIC. 6

7 HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS 1 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Colbún Hydro Generation (GWh) Acc. Oct14: 5,268 Acc. Oct15: 4, Oct15 LTM Acc. Rainfalls Oct14/Oct15 Los Quilos (mm) Armerillo (mm) ,977 1, Melting Forecast at Maule (m3/s)* Abanico (mm) ,19 1, Canutillar (mm) ,361 2,788 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: Colbún. *Updated in November 4th, October 215 considers real figures. Nov-Mar Exceedence Probability: 64% in 215 versus 67% in

8 A DYNAMIC MARKET WITHIN A STABLE INDUSTRY Demand Lower demand growth, mirroring lower overall economic growth expectations National demand growth of ~3.-4.% (CAGR) Market Context Supply Fuel Entry of new players increase market competition. SIC-SING interconnection in 219. High volatility in fuel prices. Significant lower fuel prices in the foreseeable future. Regulatory changes Dynamic regulatory framework. Several bills under discussion NCRE High penetration of Renewables, mostly intermittent. Significant reduction in development cost. 8

9 THE GOVERNMENT IS PROMOTING SEVERAL REGULATORY CHANGES IN THE SECTOR New Auctions Law In force since January 215 Draft legislation Water Code Reform New Transmission Law Tariff Equity System Operator Amendments 9

10 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 1

11 OVERVIEW Installed capacity of 3,278 MW - 25% Market Share by Generation Gx. Asset Diversification (MW) Financials As of Sep15 (US$ million) Assets: 6,4 Equity: 3,5 Mkt Cap: 4,7 Ownership 23% 17% 1% 49% Matte Group Angelini Group Pension Funds Others EV: 5,5 EBITDA LTM: 569 Committed Controlling Group High Standards of Corporate Governance Cash: 1,91 Tx. Assets ~9 Km 27 Substations Net Debt: 78 Net Debt/EBITDA: 1.4x Dividend Policy: 3% Intern. Ratings Fitch: BBB S&P: BBB- Local Ratings Fitch: A+ Humph.: AA- *All information as of Dec214, except for Financials and ratings 11

12 COLBUN IS THE SECOND LARGEST GENERATOR IN THE SIC 48% Hydro 1,589 MW 3,278 MW 532 MW Run-of-the-river 33% 1,57 MW Reservoir 67% World Class Technologydiversified Facilities spread in different basins 52% Thermal 1,689 MW 766 MW CCGT 45% 342 MW Coal 2% 581 MW Diesel 35% 12

13 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 13

14 COMMERCIAL POLICY Balanced Position between existent and future efficient generation capacity and medium to long-term power supply commitments Hydro: contract output considering medium to dry hydrology Coal: contract output considering an efficient load factor LNG: secure long-term competitive LNG Supply for Combined Cycle units NCRE: add additional assets to our generation matrix Back-up capacity: available for the spot market and other opportunities Secure long term contracts with creditworthy counterparties Balanced mix between Regulated and Unregulated clients Incorporate risk-sharing mechanisms Expand operations to selected Latam countries and maintain a relevant market share in the SIC Diversify geography, markets, technologies and regulation frameworks 14

15 COMMERCIAL STRATEGY: MAXIMIZE RETURNS, WHILE MANAGING VOLATILITY 1 MW Capacity (MW) & *Estimated Generation (TWh/year) Breakdown TWh 3,5 3,278 MW 19.5 TWh 12. TWh 2 3, , , 1, , 1, Hydro Coal (*) Under medium hydrological conditions. Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/year) Contracted Sales CCGT Diesel/Gas Peaking Diesel/Gas This graph is shown for illustrative purposes and represents estimated and potential output of our power plants and approximate level of contractual commitments. Real output from our power plants and variable production costs are dependent on many factors, such as hydrology, plant availability, access to fuels (coal and LNG) and commodity prices, among others. 15

16 COMMERCIAL POSITION GWh 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Contractual Committments vs. Generation (GWh) , , ,24 9,85 3,11 3,46 11,47 2,242 2,893 3,234 4,431 3,794 4,213 2,623 2,669 1,853 2,616 6,912 7,224 6,655 7,24 6,288 6,834 5,233 4,857 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% Q15 LTM Hydro Coal LNG Diesel % Regulated Sales Unregulated Sales EBITDA Mg Graph Source: Colbun. Unregulated Sales 213 & 214 excludes sales to Codelco at Marginal Cost 16

17 LEVERAGING OUR COMBINED CYCLES (NEHUENCO I & II 766 MW) 1 Contracted Gas Generation: Metrogas and ENAP (GWh) Regasification Capacity (GWh) GWh 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5-3,35 2,5 2,5 2,5 2, 2, Optional Long- term flexible production and gas price Efficient complement to hydro and coal 17

18 HIGH QUALITY CLIENTS 1 2 Sales by Type of Costumer (%) Sales Volume by Customer (%) Unregulated Regulated 39% 61% Codelco (A/A+) 29% Chilectra (BBB+/BBB+)* 21% CGED (Local A+) 2% AngloAmeric an Others(BBB/BBB+) 4% 9% Saesa (Local AA) 17% 3 14, Historic Sales by Type of Costumer (GWh) 4 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Q15 LTM Regulated customers Unregulated customers Average Monomic Price (US$/MWh) Temporary Mg Cost Indexation in some PPAs Regulated Costumers Unregulated Costumers Graphs Sources: 1), 2), 3), 4) Colbun as of Sept15 LTM. 4) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh. 18

19 OUR PPAS: 9.5 YEARS AVERAGE MATURITY 1 GWh 14. Unregulated Regulated 12. Available energy to re-contract Fossil Fuels 35% Indexation CPI 65%

20 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 21

21 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 IMPROVING RESULTS AND LOWERING VOLATILITY 1 2 Operating Revenues (US$ million) 2, 1,696 1,5 1,49 1,53 1,343 1, EBITDA (US$ million) & EBITDA Mg (%) % 36% % 21% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Q15 LTM Q15 LTM % Quarterly EBITDA (US$ million) Net Income (US$ million) Tax Reform HidroAysén Q15 LTM HidroAysén Source: Colbún s Financial Statements 22

22 SOLID CREDIT METRICS 1 2 2, Debt & Net Debt (US$ million) Debt Net Debt 1,5 1, Q Net Debt / EBITDA Q15 LTM 3 4 Leverage Ratio* (%) Q Cash Flow (US$ million) Capex EBITDA Q15 LTM Source: Colbún s Financial Statements. (*) Calculated as Liabilities/Equity 23

23 BALANCED DEBT POSITION AND HIGH LIQUIDITY 1 Total Debt: MMUS$ 1,871 Avrg. Maturity: 5.7 years Avrg. USD Interest Rate: 4.8% Cash: MMUS$ 1,91 Net Debt: MMUS$ 78 Dividend Policy 3% Banks Committed Lines: MMUS$ 15 (As of Sep15) BANKS 22% Debt Profile Type Currency Interest Rate BONDS 78% UF 8% USD 92% FIXED 1% 2 8 Amortization Structure (US$ million) 3 Banks Bonds 6 4 Avg. Maturity: 5.7 years 2 Avg. MMUS$ 46 for the next 3 years Source: Colbún s Financial Statements 24

24 Basis Basis DEBT & EQUITY MARKET WATCH Colbun Stock Daily Volume (MMUSD) IPSA Index Colbún Stock MMUSD 2 3 G-Spread Colbun International Bonds (Basis)

25 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 26

26 ~9 MW OF NEW CAPACITY WITH OVER US$2, MILLION INVESTED 1 MW 3,5 Colbún Installed Capacity Angostura 316 MW 3,278 3, 2,5 2, 2,37 Quilleco 71 MW Chiburgo 19 MW Hornitos 55 MW Santa María I 35 MW San Clemente Los Pinos 5 MW 1 MW % Hydro 1,589 MW 52% Thermo 1,689 MW 27

27 GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES IN CHILE: BASE LOAD CAPACITY AND RENEWABLES IV VII V RM VI Hydro Coal 5 MW equivalent of water rights under study NCRE under study VIII IX XIV X 34 MW 35 MW ~17 MW La Mina Run-of-the-river / NCRE Santa María II Coal San Pedro Reservoir 28

28 LA MINA RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR THE SYSTEM 34 MW of Installed Capacity and 19 GWh of expected annual generation Under construction since Dec14 and to date is on schedule Expected to be commissioned in early

29 SANTA MARIA II COAL-FIRED BASE LOAD CAPACITY 35 MW of Installed Capacity and 2,5 GWh of expected annual generation Environmentally Approved Social, economic and commercial dimensions of the project are being analyzed, in order to timely define the beginning of its construction Santa María II 3

30 26 SAN PEDRO HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Riñihue Lake San Pedro reservoir Project ~17 MW of Installed Capacity and 95 GWh of expected annual generation The Company continues with a broad explicative and clarifying meeting process plan 31

31 SEARCHING FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION Special Focus on Colombia and Peru Growing Electricity Consumption Well established regulatory framework Diversification: Hydrological Conditions Generation Technology Fuel Access Regulation 32

32 AGENDA SIC OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW OPERATIONS FINANCIALS PROJECTS CORPORATE GOVERNANCE 33

33 HIGH STANDARDS OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE EXTERNAL AUDITORS EXECUTIVE BOARD COMMITTEE Structure STAKEHOLDERS BOARD AUDIT COMMITTEE BOARD OF DIRECTORS COMMITTEE PROJECTS COMMITTEE MANAGEMENT REGULATION COMMITTEE AUDITOR ETHICS COMMITTEE RISK MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE SUSTAINABILITY COMMITTEE* Communications Equitable Treatment Website, IR Team, Media Team, Quarterly Financial Statements & Conference Calls, Others. DISCLOSURE INFORMATION POLICY / PUBLIC INFORMATION MANUAL DELEGATION OF AUTHORITY CODE OF ETHICS: Anonymous Whistleblowing Channel Regulation Our Board is ruled by Law N 18,46, Law N 2,393 (Criminal Liability) and Colbún s Board policies and procedures Internal Ruling: Policies, Procedures and Code of Ethics SVS Corporate Governance Practices (NCG 385) * In development 34

34 OUR VALUE PROPOSAL Leading corporate citizen, committed to sustainability Strong pipeline of new projects with improving efficiency and diversification of generation sources Strong financial discipline with sound credit metrics Diversified asset base for flexibility, lower generation risk Advanced commercial strategy focused on high quality customers, risk sharing contracts Be a leading and growing company of profitable and sustainable power generation in selected countries of Latin America 35

35 DISCLAIMER This document provides information about Colbún S.A. In no case this document constitutes a comprehensive analysis of the financial, production and sales situation of the company. To evaluate whether to purchase or sell securities of the company, the investor must conduct its own independent analysis. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements concerning Colbun's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates by Colbún S.A. In compliance with the applicable rules, Colbún S.A. publishes on its Web Site ( and sends the financial statements of the Company and its corresponding notes to the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, those documents should be read as a complement to this presentation. INVESTOR RELATIONS TEAM CONTACT Miguel Alarcón María Elena Palma malarcon@colbun.cl mpalma@colbun.cl +(562) (562)