8th Annual Andean Conference LarrainVial March, 2014

Transcription

1 8th Annual Andean Conference LarrainVial March, 214

2 AGENDA CHILEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS FINAL REMARKS 2

3 Chilean Electricity Market Overview CHILE ATTRACTIVE ELECTRICITY SECTOR 3 SUB-SECTORS 4 SEPARATE GRIDS GENERATION TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION Regulated sectors (concessions) SING Castro SEA SAM Tal-Tal 17, MW Tal-Tal TWh ~75% of DEMAND SIC* ~9 of POPULATION Santiago CHILE S DEMAND BREAKDOWN 2% 12% 12% 16% ~17mm INHABITANTS Mining Residencial Agricultural 24% 33% Industrial Commerce Other Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) CNE, December 213 / 3)Energy Minister December 211. (*) Central Interconnected System 3

4 USD/MWh Chilean Electricity Market Overview STRONG AND STABLE REGULATION IN AN A+ RATED COUNTRY SHORT TERM PRICE Monomic Price Monomic Price Breakdown 18% Energy 82% Capacity Supply Curve ENERGY Price Signal = ƒ (Variable Audited Cost) Demand Curve CC-LNG Coal Hydro OC-Diesel CC-Diesel SPOT PRICE Supply Curve Output from available plants (MWh) CAPACITY Price Signal = ƒ ( Annuity for a return on Capital Investment) SECURITY Independent of technology US$/Kw-Month LONG TERM PRICE Price Signal = ƒ (Arm s Length Negotiation) ƒ (Tendered Price) SIC s Demand By Customer 4% Regulated 6% Unregulated US$/ MWh Capital Cost Variable Cost DEVELOPMENT COST (Variable Cost + Capital Cost) Natural Gas Wind Geothermal Hydro Coal Nuclear Biomass Natural Gas Chile* Solar PV Graphs Sources: 1) Last 5 years average of regulated short-term node price in Alto Jahuel. / 2) CNE, December 212 / 3) Annual Energy Outlook 213 EIA, does not consider taxes. (*) Natural gas considers variable cost of US$1/MWh 4 4

5 Chilean Electricity Market Overview LACK OF EFFICIENT SUPPLY HAS LEAD TO VOLATILE PRICES ) Energy Node Price Alto Jahuel 2) Average Auction price 3) Average Market price 4) Energy Spot Market Price Alto Jahuel Electricity Prices SIC (US$/MWh) Graph Sources: Costos reales marginales mensuales Alto Jahuel, CDEC/ Colbún; Historia precios nudos, CNE; Informes Mensuales Systep. (*): The market Price is calculated by the Regulator upon information provided by all generation companies. This average price does not includes the capacity charge. 5 5

6 Chilean Electricity Market Overview GROWING ENERGY DEMAND IN THE SIC TWh SIC s Annual Demand Unregulated 5 TWh Regulated 64 TWh TWh 1 5 SIC s Annual Capacity under Normal Conditions* Hydro NCRE Coal Gas Diesel TWh TWh CAGR: 2.1% CAGR: 4.6% CAGR: 5.4% CAGR: 1.8% Demand vs Supply Under 213 Dry Conditions Columna1 TWh Hydro NCRE Coal Gas Diesel TWh TWh 5 TWh 6 TWh Gas Spare Capacity 6 TWh MWh/ person Electricity per Capita Consumption New Capacity Peaking 218 Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) /3) Producción Real por Sistema, CNE. Colbún, 213. CDEC-SIC Annual Report. Informe Técnico Definitivo Fijación Precio Nudo SIC,CNE, October ) World Bank. (*) Normal Conditions: Hydro 66%; Thermal 85%; NCRE 3% 6 6

7 AGENDA CHILEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS FINAL REMARKS 7

8 Colbún Overview COLBUN OVERVIEW Leading diversified Chilean generation company providing reliable, competitive and sustainable energy. Develop projects and manage power infrastructure to generate long term value. Contract our power through long-term power purchase agreements. LEADING PLAYER IN THE SIC COMMITED SHAREHOLDERS INVESTMENT GRADE COMPANY 38% 2% 57% 43% Market Share 18% 2% 1% >15 players 2% Matte Group 49% Angelini Group 1% Pension Funds 18% Others 23% Fitch Humphreys S&P A+ AA- BBB BBB- /Neg Endesa Colbún Gener Arauco CGE Others Hydro Thermal Local International Installed Capacity: 2,962 MW 213 Generation: 11,253 GWh Market Cap.: US$ 4. billion EV: US$ 5.5 billion 213 EBITDA: US$ 352 million Net Debt to EBITDA: 4.1 times Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) Colbún, December 213; Market Share according to installed capacity 8

9 Colbún Overview BALANCED GROWTH Installed Capacity (MW) Market Capitalization (US$ million) ,658 MW 2,962 MW CAGR: 7% US$ 1,296 million US$ 4,9 million CAGR: 13% TWh 7.8 TWh Contracted Energy & Competitive Generation (TWh) Contracted Energy Competitive Generation* CAGR: 4% CAGR: 4% 12.3 TWh 1.7 TWh US$ 231 million EBITDA (US$ million) US$ 352 million CAGR: 5% Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) / 3) / 4) Colbún Annual Report. (*) Competitive Graphs Sources: Generation 1) / means: 2) / 4) Colbún hydro, Annual coal, natural Report. gas 3) and Bloomberg. LNG. 9 (*) Competitive Generation means: hydro, coal, natural gas and LNG. 9

10 AGENDA CHILEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS FINAL REMARKS 1

11 Investment Considerations INVESTMENT THESIS 1. Diversified asset base for flexibility, lower generation risk 3. Strong financial discipline will lead to improved credit metrics 2. Advanced commercial strategy focused on high quality customers, risk sharing contracts 4. Leading corporate citizen, committed to sustainability 5. Strong pipeline of new projects with improving efficiency and diversification of generation sources 11 11

12 Investment Considerations: Improving Diversity of Asset Base HIGH QUALITY GENERATION ASSETS MW 3.5 Capacity (MW) & *Estimated Generation (TWh/year) Breakdown 3,278 MW 19.5 TWh TWh , Colbún Reservoir Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/year) Hydro Hydro under construction Coal CCGT Diesel/Gas Peaking Diesel/Gas Santa María I Coal-fired power plant *For hydro *For hydro considers considers medium-to-dry medium-to-dry hydrological hydrological conditions, conditions, for CCGT for CCGT and peakers, and peaking, they are they estimated are estimated yearly yearly productions productions (85% (85% plant plant factor). factor). Gas generation Gas generation will depend will depend upon upon gas availability. 12 gas availability 12

13 Investment Considerations: Improving Diversity of Asset Base GENERATION MIX: HYDRO VARIABILITY AND FUEL SUPPLY 5 SIC s Generation (TWh) 12 Colbún s Generation (TWh) 4 Diesel 4% LNG 19% 1 Diesel 5% 3 Coal 33% 2 Others Gas % Diesel-Fuel LNG Hydro 38% 1 Coal /Petcoke Gas Hydro Argentine Gas Crisis (25) Last 4 years of severe Drought 8 6 LNG 29% Coal 23% 4 Gas % Diesel-Fuel LNG Hydro 43% 2 Coal Gas Hydro First Coal-Fired plant Santa María I (212) LNG depend upon availability Graphs Sources: 1) Generación bruta en el SIC, CNE ) Colbún Annual Reports. Graph Source: 1) Generación bruta en el SIC, CNE ) Colbún Annual Reports

14 Investment Considerations: Advanced Commercial Strategy HIGH QUALITY CLIENTS Sales by Type of Costumer (%) Unregulated Regulated 41% 59% AngloAm erican - BBB 1% Codelco - A 16% Sale Volume by Customer (%) Others 1% Chilectra BBB+ 26% CGED - Local A+ 2% Saesa - Local AA 17% USD/MWh Historical Average Monomic Price (US$/MWh) Regulated customers Unregulated customers Graphs Sources: 1) Colbun as of Dec13 LTM 2) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh 14 Graphs Sources: 1) As of September 213 LTM 2) Average monomic prices are calculated by dividing the total amount of sales in US$, by physical energy sales in MWh 14

15 Investment Considerations: Advanced Commercial Strategy ADVANCED COMMERCIAL STRATEGY Maximize returns from our current and future assets Manage volatility given relevant hydro component Predictable Cash Flows 2. INCORPORATE INDEXATION FORMULAS IN SALE PRICES 1. DEVELOPMENT COST 3. DEFINE OPTIMAL PPAs 4, GWh OC 5, GWh Dual CCGT 2,5 GWh Coal 8, GWh. Hydro(*) -Active Risk Management -Financial Hedges -Natural gas for certain periods (*) Under medium-to-dry hydrological conditions. This includes output of the Angostura hydroelectric power project For CCGT and peaking, they are estimated yearly productions (85% plant factor). Gas generation will depend upon gas availability 15 15

16 Investment Considerations: Advanced Commercial Strategy COMMERCIAL STRATEGY: MOVING TOWARDS BALANCE GWh ,82 2, ,879 1,273 5,31 1,91 2, ,24 3,234 4,62 2,242 2,921 1,853 2,616 5,82 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% ,578 4,76 6,912 7,224 5,566 5,462 6,85 5,233 4,857 3,8 1% 5% % Hydro Coal LNG Diesel Regulated Sales Unregulated Sales EBITDA Mg 16 16

17 Investment Considerations: Improving Diversity of Asset Base EXPANSION PLAN: NEW PROJECTS ENHANCE FLEXIBILITY MW 1. 9 Capacity (MW) & *Estimated Generation (TWh/year) Breakdown 842 MW 5.18 TWh Santa María II 342 La Mina 34 San Pedro Angostura Project Angostura Hydro Coal Capacity (MW) Generation (TWh/year) Plants Optimization, LNG Access, Water Rights. San Pedro Project - 29 *For hydro this estimation considers medium-to-dry hydrological conditions, for CCGT and peaking, they are estimated yearly productions (85% plant factor). Gas generation will depend upon gas availability

18 Investment Considerations: Improving Diversity of Asset Base RENEWABLE HYDRO PROJECTS Angostura Project San Pedro Project Angostura Project Projects Description Capacity (MW) GWh/year expected Phase CAPEX (MMUS$) Spent Dec13 (MMUS$) Completion Angostura Hydro-Reservoir 316 1,5 Construction 76* 78 98% San Pedro Hydro-Reservoir EIA Approved Under revision La Mina Mini Hydro EIA Approved Under revision Water rights for over 5 MW of hydro potential (*) Includes the power plant and the transmission line 18,

19 Investment Considerations: Improving Diversity of Asset Base EFFICIENT BASE-LOAD THERMAL PROJECTS Santa María II Project Nehuenco Complex Projects Description Capacity (MW) GWh/year expected Phase Sta. María II Coal 35 2,5 EIA Approved Optimization of existing plants Nehuenco (766 MW) / Candelaria (27 MW), subject to flexible and competitive gas supply 19 19

20 Investment Considerations: Strong Financial Discipline CLEAR PATH, IMPROVING RESULTS Operating Revenues (US$ million) 1,333 1,49 1,159 1,24 1, EBITDA (US$ million) & EBITDA Mg (%) % 29% 25 2% 21% 15% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Net Income (US$ million) 2% Share Price & IPSA % 1% IPSA Colbun 213 Daily Trading US$ 7.7million 5% Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) / 3) Colbún / 4) Bloomberg 2.

21 Investment Considerations: Strong Financial Discipline BALANCED DEBT POSITION AND BROAD ACCESS TO ADDITIONAL LIQUIDITY Debt & Net Debt (US$ million) Debt Net Debt 1,7 1,44 UF 19% Debt by Type (%) Variable 11% Interest Rate: 5.% 5 Net Debt: US$ 1.4 billion USD 81% Fixed 9% Amortization Schedule (US$ million) Average Maturity: 5.4 years Banks Bonds G-Spread 21 Colbun Yankee Bond (Basis points) Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) / 3) Colbún, as of December ) / 3) Includes hedging derivatives. / 4) Bloomberg.. 21.

22 Investment Considerations: Strong Financial Discipline MOVING TOWARDS A POSITIVE CASH FLOW AND IMPROVING CREDIT METRICS Cash Flow (US$ million) WK Capex EBITDA Strong Liquidity Position Amount (US$ million) Cash Committed lines 2 - Uncommitted lines 15 - Registered domestic bonds 3 - Registered commercial papers 1 - Dividend Policy 3% Leverage Ratio (%)* Net debt to EBITDA (x) EBITDA to Interest coverage (x) Local & International Credit Ratings A+ AA- Local BBB BBB- /Neg International Fitch Humphreys S&P Graphs Sources: 1) / 2) / 3) / 4) Colbún (*) Debt/(Debt+Equity) 22

23 Investment Considerations: Committed to Sustainability COMMITTED TO SUSTAINABILITY POLICY: Colbún s relationships with all of its stakeholders generate long-term value and mutual benefits because they are integrated in the business model Investors Workers Environment Community & Society Contractors & Providers Clients & Supliers LATEST ACHIEVEMENTS: Chile s First Lady recognized Colbún for supporting rural women Nov13 Top three most-prepared companies to confront Climate Change - Fundación Chile and Revista Capital - Oct13 Good Corporate Citizen Award on the Environmental category AmCham-, related to an irrigation agreement reached with farmers in the Maule region, Oct

24 Investment Considerations: Committed to Sustainability HIGH STANDARDS OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE OUR BOARD Is governed by our Board policies and procedures 4 out of 9 are independent directors Elected every 3 years (no limits on reelection) 2 out of 3 independent directors in the Board Committee First women director elected 212 Monthly meetings Two annual meetings with our external auditors No directors in management positions Board and board committee remunerations approved in the annual shareholders meeting (no equity options) OUR VALUES INTEGRITY EXCELLENCE PASSION INNOVATION COLLABORATION CODE OF ETHICS (ruling both workers and directors) Dedicated Investor Relations Team Website updated daily 24 24

25 AGENDA CHILEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET OVERVIEW COLBUN OVERVIEW INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS FINAL REMARKS 27

26 Final Remarks COLBUN IS ENERGY FOR THE FUTURE Well position in growing market with stable regulation STABLE - LOW RISK Moving towards stronger cash flows, improved credit metrics STRONGER FUTURE SUSTAINABLE Committed to sustainability and to all our stakeholders GROWING DIVERSIFIED Able to grow the business in several different ways Bringing new capacity with improved risk management 28 26

27 . 26 Angostura Reservoir and Viewpoint

28 ANGOSTURA (316 MW) In mid Dec we finished the filling of the reservoir. 1st Unit (135 MW) synchronized in 29Dec. 2nd (46 MW) synchronized in 25Jan. 3rd (135 MW) synchronized in 6Mar. 214 Accumulated Generation: 91 GWh 28 Angostura reservoir and new public beach

29 This document provides information about Colbún SA. In no case this document constitutes a comprehensive analysis of the financial, production and sales situation of the company. To evaluate whether to purchase or sell securities of the company, the investor must conduct its own independent analysis. This document may contain forward-looking statements concerning Colbun's future performance and should be considered as good faith estimates by Colbún S.A. In compliance with the applicable rules, Colbún S.A. publishes on its Web Site ( and sends the financial statements of the Company and its corresponding notes to the Superintendencia de Valores y Seguros, those documents should be read as a complement to this report. 29