Junta Anual de Inversionistas Activa 2016 SCL ENERGÍA ACTIVA S.A.

Transcription

1 Junta Anual de Inversionistas Activa 2016 SCL ENERGÍA ACTIVA S.A.

2 RATIONALITY INVESTMENT FOCUS TARGET MARKETS INVESTMENT STRATEGY Energy opportunities in the Pacific Coast of South America and some countries in Central America. The focus is to invest in countries with high potential growth and imbalances between energy supply and demand. CENTRAL AMERICA COLOMBIA PERU CHILE Assets with strong growth prospects Improvement of operational and financial performance Limited currency risk due to US-dollar denominated markets Control or control-oriented investments of US$ million Balanced portfolio of Greenfield and Brownfield assets Funds under management: MMUS$ 530 Asset s under management: MMUS$

3 SCLEA PRESENTATION SCLEA PRESENTATION MARKET OVERVIEW 3

4 US$/MWh MARKET SCENARIO: PERÚ Peruvian electricity spot prices projections has been driven down by: Lower demand Sub declaration of fuel price Idealized spot prices (for purpose of transactions among the power companies) Regulated gas price for new projects PPA auctions limited to hydro power, no thermal power plants can participate Infrastructure paid directly by electricity demand such as GSP Governmental intervention to secure: Viability of new hydro power plants Viability of a new gas market south of Peru Has reduced the new demand and is affecting current players Energy Spot Price Energy Prices, conservative scenario Energy Prices, GSP delayed until Development Cost Year 4

5 MARKET SCENARIO: COLOMBIA High SPOT price volatility due to the system is mainly based on hydroelectric power plants (over 75%) with small regulation capacity and exclusively rainfall inflows. Since September 2015 the system was affected by an extreme drought (el Niño) which provoke a financial crisis in all gas power plants due to: No gas availability Scarcity price below the variable cost running with diesel (regulatory problem) Scarcity Price Different than other crisis, the Colombian Government take a long time to take measures to solve the crisis (the regulatory problem) and when did it were incomplete solutions Impact on AEF assets were as follows: Termocandelaria: stop running by late October; US$ 1 M losses/day; governmental intervention; accumulate a US$ 56 M debt with the system; now running normal Termovalle: shareholders were obligated to capitalize US$23 M; TEBSA: not impacted Termoyopal: not impacted El Niño extended its effects until late August with a significant risk to have a second year of drought. Rainy season started early September As soon as the LNG terminal is completed the risk to have financial crisis during El Niño situation must diminish significantly 5

6 MARKET SCENARIO: CHILE SPOT price projections downward in the medium term, due to oversupply as consequence of a slower growth in demand and an aggressive installation of NRCE projects. Main characteristics of the DISCO s auction Total Energy Demand Total Offers 12 TWh-yr. Over 100 TWh-yr Average price bided 59 US$/MWh Average price awarded 47.5 US$/MWh Minimal price awarded 29 US$/MWh Maximum price awarded 55 US$/MWh 6 TWh-yr were awarded mainly to windpower (Mainstream) and one solar farm (Solarpark ) Lack of traditional power projects (gas, coal and big hidros) expose the system to high volatility and lower reliability The expected return for wind power are considerable low. Assuming a load factor of 34% and Capex of US$ 1.5 million/mw the expected return on assets is near 7% Technology TWh/year Average Price US$/MWh LNG Coal 2,2 89 Biomass 0,6 79 Hydro 1,9 74 Wind Solar Total 48,7 62,5 System expansion can not be based on intermittent power sources Following system auctions should limit intermittent generation Single industrial customers can not be exposed to intermittency 6

7 SCLEA PRESENTATION SCLEA PRESENTATION ASSET PORTFOLIO AEF I & AEF II 7

8 ASSET PORTFOLIO AEF I 1. ENESA CHILE PERU COLOMBIA Biomass Plant (15,5 + 2,5 MW) Investment thesis: NCRE and carbon credits Long term PPA contracts USD indexed market High availability of biomass Capital Invested: MMUS$ 27,7 3. TERMOCHILCA Gas Plant ( MW) Investment thesis: Strong economic growth in Peru, accompanied by a steady growth in electricity demand Capital Invested: MMUS$ 57, (CC) 4. TPL Gas Plants (1.232 MW) Investment thesis: Plants located in a strategic location, with possibility of creating value by ensuring fuel supply (GNL) Capital invested: MMUS$ 52,5 5. CMCT CACHAPOAL Hydropower Plant (23 MW) Investment thesis: Low construction and environmental risk Secured water rights NCRE and carbon credits Capital invested: MMUS$ 2,1 Coking coal mine Investment Thesis: Expansion project increase production and improve technology Capital invested: MMUS$ 25,9 6. TERMOYOPAL Gas Plant (110 MW) Investment thesis: Strategic location (wellhead), low fuel supply cost and possibility of constructing a LPG plant Capital invested: MMUS$ 18,6 2 1 SCLEA Headquarters AEF I Companies 8

9 ASSET PORTFOLIO AEF II 1. RAKUN 2. SULPAY 3. TERMOVALLE 4 Biomass Plant (2x25 MW) Investment Thesis: NCRE and carbon credits Fuel secured High energy growth consumption Capital invested: MUS$ 0,4 Gas Plant (350 MW) Investment thesis: Strong economic growth in Peru, accompanied by a steady growth in electricity demand Long term PPA access Long-term gas contract access Capital invested: MUS$ 1,4 Gas Plant (200 MW) Investment Thesis: Located in a free trade zone Secured fixed payment Capital invested: MUS$ 24, SPEC 5. BIOGAS 6. SMART SOLAR + PMGD LNG Terminal to support back up requirements Investment Thesis: Gas supply steadily declining and increasing demand Lack of local gas High demand for longterm contracts Secured fixed payment Capital invested: MUS$ 17,8 4 Plants (6MW eq) + expansion of 16MW eq. Investment thesis: NCRE and carbon credits Fuel secured High energy growth consumption Expected Intial Investment : MUS$ 17 Portfolio of up to 54MW with potential expansion of 90MW Investment thesis: NCRE Decreasing investment costs Projects connected to the distribution grid may apply to incentives established in the regulation Expected initial investment: up to MUS$ 55 1 SCLEA Headquarters AEF I Companies 9

10 SMART SOLAR - PMGD Chile DESCRIPTION Portfolio of small solar (up to 9 MW) projects located in central Chile (IV,V and RM regions). Initial portfolio of 45 MW RTB, with potential expansion in the shortmid term up to 90 MW. Projects are connected to the distribution grid and can apply to price incentives established by regulation. Working with three developers COD for 45 MW by 2Q-3Q 2017 IV Region Cluster: 17 MW initially Expansion up to 33 MW ECONOMICS Initial Investment: US$ 55 million to finance 45 MW Additional Investment: 50 to develop additional 45 MW Project Loc. Dev. P [MWp] f.p Price [USD/Wp] Project 1 IV Hanwha 3,0 26,1% 1,241 Project 2 IV Hanwha 3,5 25,4% 1,255 Project 3 IV Hanwha 3,5 25,2% 1,221 Project 4 RM Hanwha 3,5 24,1% 1,237 Bartolillo V IM 2 10,8 26,8% 1,235 Murallas V IM 2 3,5 26,9% 1,235 La Quinta RM IM 2 3,5 27,8% 1,235 S. Francisco RM IM 2 3,5 27,7% 1,235 Tololo IV Sky 3,3 28,9% 1,200 Las Totoras IV Sky 3,3 27,5% 1,200 Maipu RM Sky 3,3 25,9% 1,200 Total 44,7 V Region Cluster: 14 MW initial portfolio Expansion up to 36 MW RM Cluster: 14 MW initially Expansion up to 22 MW 10

11 SMART SOLAR Roof Projects Chile GENERAL DESCRIPTION Portfolio of small solar projects (<1 MW to 3 MW) located on the roofs of industries along the country. This is consistent with the same strategy of smaller size and distribution Projects aimed to supply energy requirements of each industry through a PPA with the option to sale the surplus to the grid. This market is highly attractive because allows capturing portion of the charges of the distribution network. ECONOMICS Target to reach 100 MW in 3 years Potential investment: US$ 100 m 11

12 DESCRIPTION LNG Terminal to support back up requirements (industrial and residential customers) First Phase (off shore) includes the construction of a port, a pier and connecting pipelines to receive NG supply from a Floating Regasification Unit (FSRU). Investment: MUS$ 160 Second phase (onshore) would include the construction of regasification facilities with 400 MCFD capacity, storage ( m3) and liquefaction facilities INVESTMENT THESIS High demand for long-term contracts expected from generation companies (Tebsa, Termocandelaria and Termoflores) Gas supply steadily declining and high growing demand Advantageous geographical location for LNG distribution in Colombia and Central America The project will replace up to ton per day of diesel required for security generation Utilizing certain Colombian tax benefits - located in a free zone Benefiting from shale gas market development Capturing upsides based on gas supply trading (domestic and foreign markets) RECENT EVENTS Construction progress : 95% as of September Expected COD: 2 nd half of November 12

13 Junta Anual de Inversionistas Activa 2016 SCL ENERGÍA ACTIVA S.A.