Global Insight Weekly

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1 MARCH 8, 2013 RBC Wealth Management Global Insight Weekly Equity Scorecard March 8, 2013 Index (local currency ) Level 1 week MTD YTD»» The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to a new all-time high on Tuesday and added to its gains each session that followed.»» Made in Japan: The Japanese equity market has rallied powerfully on hopes about Abenomics, and has been aided by a much-weaker yen. But what really drives the yen over the long term? (page 2)»» Global Roundup: Overview of Canada s strong employment report, central bank meetings in Europe, activity in Chinese property stocks, and an important pledge by the BOJ governor nominee. (pages 3-4) Global Insight Monthly Now Available The March edition includes RBC s latest thoughts about the economy, equities, fixed income, commodities, and currencies, in addition to the following articles. Headwinds Tolerable If the U.S. Remains on its Feet: The most important risk to consider is whether the world s largest economy can avoid a recession in None of our indicators are flashing yellow. On the Horizon: The U.S. may be on the verge of transitioning out of its post-great Recession growth rut into a catch-up phase featuring several years of above-potential growth. S&P 500 1, % 2.4% 8.8% S&P/TSX Comp 12, % 0.1% 3.2% FTSE All Share 3, % 2.0% 10.4% Hang Seng 23, % 0.3% 1.9% Dow (DJIA) 14, % 2.4% 9.9% NASDAQ 3, % 2.7% 7.4% Russell % 3.4% 11.0% STOXX Europe % 1.9% 5.7% German DAX 7, % 3.2% 4.9% Nikkei , % 6.3% 18.2% Straits Times 3, % 0.6% 3.9% Shanghai Comp 2, % -2.0% 2.2% Brazil Bovespa 58, % 1.8% -4.1% Note: Equity returns do not include dividends. Author Jay Roberts Hong Kong, China jay.roberts@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Contributors Kelly Bogdanov San Francisco, United States kelly.bogdanov@rbc.com; RBC Capital Markets, LLC Adrian Brown & Lucy So Toronto, Canada adrian.brown@rbc.com, lucy.so@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frédérique Carrier London, United Kingdom frederique.carrier@rbc.com; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Yufei Yang Hong Kong, China yufei.yang@rbc.com; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. All values in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Priced as of March 8, 2013, market close (unless otherwise stated). For Important Disclosures, see pages 5-6.

2 Markets & the Economy Market Scorecard March 8, 2013 Govt Bonds (bps chg) Yield 1 week MTD YTD US 2-Yr Tsy 0.254% US 10-Yr Tsy 2.056% Canada 2-Yr 0.982% Canada 10-Yr 1.938% UK 2-Yr 0.258% UK 10-Yr 2.061% Germany 2-Yr 0.087% Germany 10-Yr 1.525% Commodities (USD) Price 1 week MTD YTD Gold (spot $/oz) 1, % -0.1% -5.8% Silv er (spot $/oz) % 1.6% -4.5% Copper ($/ton) 7, % -0.6% -2.2% Oil (WTI spot/bbl) % -0.1% 0.1% Oil (Brent spot/bbl) % -1.0% -1.0% Natural Gas ($/mlnbtu) % 2.9% 5.1% Agriculture Index % -0.7% -2.2% Currencies Rate 1 week MTD YTD US Dollar Index % 1.0% 3.8% CAD/USD % 0.1% -3.6% USD/CAD % -0.1% 3.7% EUR/USD % -0.4% -1.4% GBP/USD % -1.6% -8.2% AUD/USD % 0.1% -1.6% USD/CHF % 1.6% 3.9% USD/JPY % 3.8% 10.7% EUR/JPY % 3.3% 9.1% EUR/GBP % 1.2% 7.4% EUR/CHF % 1.2% 2.5% USD/SGD % 0.7% 2.1% USD/CNY % -0.1% -0.2% USD/BRL % -1.7% -5.2% Source: Bloomberg. Note: Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 9:30 pm GMT 3/8/13. Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.97 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.97 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -3.6% return means the Canadian dollar fell 3.6% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY means 1 U.S. dollar will buy yen. USD/JPY 10.7% return means the U.S. dollar rose 10.7% vs. the yen year to date. Most equity markets continued to push higher, with Japanese stocks leading and the U.S. and Europe delivering solid gains. China s Shanghai Composite lagged as concerns about tighter housing market restrictions resurfaced again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which includes 30 large-capitalization stocks intended to represent the broader U.S. economy, traded to a new alltime high on Tuesday and then added gains as the week wore on. The S&P 500 has yet to achieve that milestone, but is only 0.9% away. The solid U.S. employment report provided support for equities on Friday. Non-farm payrolls greatly exceeded expectations, rising 236,000 in February compared to the consensus forecast of 165,000 and 157,000 in January. We re most encouraged by the growth in construction jobs. They rose by 48,000 in February, the best tally since March If the housing market continues to improve, as we anticipate, the construction sector should boost U.S. payrolls in Furthermore, manufacturing jobs rose by a respectable 14,000 in February. The report s other underlying components, such as the growth in average hourly earnings and average hours worked, were also positive. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9% the previous month, partly due to a legitimate decline and partly due to a slight drop in the labor force participation rate. The U.S. Dollar Index rallied and Treasury prices fell immediately after the better-than-expected jobs report was released. The 10-year T-note yield jumped higher, moving modestly above its recent trading range and settling near 2.056% that session, its highest level since April Other safe-haven government bonds markets unwound gains from the previous week, particularly at the long end of yield curves U.S. Non-Farm Jobs Bounced Back in February Net Non-Farm Jobs Created (per month) 3-month Moving Average Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through February Made in Japan Japan has been attracting a lot of attention recently. Mr. Shinzo Abe has re-emerged as prime minister following an unsuccessful, short tenure ending in This time around, though, he has come armed with an aggressive economic policy agenda, coined Abenomics, aimed at shooting down two of Japan s largest problems weak growth and deflation. The combination of Japan s ugly demographics with its truly gigantic asset price bubble at the end of the 1980s has led to two decades of economic malaise. The population peaked in size around 2008 and may shrink by about 1 million people per year to 2060, declining from approximately 127 million at present to 87 million. Forty percent of the population will be over the age of 65. Japan also had the mother of all asset bubbles. At its peak, the notional value of the land under the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was greater than that of the entire state of California. Equity valuations were eye-wateringly high. The bubble exploded; prices have been falling for years. 2 GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY MARCH 8, 2013

3 Markets & the Economy Enter Abenomics. Despite the fact that previous policy initiatives, over many years, have failed to deal with these overarching problems, investors have welcomed Abenomics with open arms. Certainly, the rhetoric has been aggressive. In short, the objectives include: expanding monetary policy to target 2% inflation; improving the competitiveness of the Japanese manufacturing sector by weakening the yen, reducing corporate taxes, and improving corporate balance sheets; and boosting productivity and technology innovation by improving Japan s infrastructure via fiscal spending. The Japanese equity market has rallied powerfully on Abe s policy promises, aided by a much-weaker yen. The weaker currency points to better profits for Japan s export-heavy market. What now for the yen? Over the years, the market consensus has consistently forecast yen weakness and been consistently wrong until recently (see left chart). In 1990, it took 143 yen to buy a dollar. Now it takes 93. How can the yen have been so strong when the economy has clearly been so weak? Consensus Forecasts for the Japanese Yen USD/JPY consensus forecasts USD/JPY actual values Source - RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg; data through 1/24/13 The answer lies in Japan s current account. The term current account refers to a country s foreign trade. The word current is used because goods and services are usually consumed in the current period. The most well-known part of the current account is the trade balance, or the difference between a country s exports and imports. But the current account also includes something known as factor income. Factor income is the difference between earnings from foreign investments and payments made to foreign investors. It can be thought of as the net investment income of a country. Japan s factor income is significant. After so many years as a successful exporting nation, Japan has built up huge foreign assets. For example, Japan owns approximately $220 trillion yen (US$2.36 trillion) in foreign bonds, mostly in U.S. Treasuries. When interest, profit, and dividends (IPD) from these foreign investments flow back into Japan, it creates natural and significant demand for the yen. (And the net investment flows are made bigger because the yields Japan earns on these foreign investments are much higher than the ultra-low yields foreign investors receive on their Japanese investments) Understanding Japan s Current Account Surplus JPY trn, 6m total IPD Trade Current A/C Services Transfers * IPD is net interest, profits and dividends, or factor income. Transfers for Japan generally refers to the provision of foreign financial aid by Japan to other countries Source - RBC Capital Markets, Bloomberg In recent years, IPD has been a much-bigger source of yen demand than Japan s trade surplus, which, in fact, peaked in The chart on the right shows this relationship. The six-month moving sum of Japan s current account surplus, a natural source of yen demand, is around JPY3 trillion. While this surplus has been getting smaller, using bearish assumptions, it will unlikely move into a continued deficit until 2015, according to RBC Capital Markets. Using more probable assumptions, it will take until 2018 to hit a deficit. RBC Capital Markets calculates that real money flows over the past few months have actually been positive for the yen. This means the sell-off in the currency has been dominated by technical factors and momentum trading. In the short term, who knows where this momentum will take the yen. But in the longer term, fundamental supply and demand for the yen, based on the outlook for Japan s current account surplus, still points to at least a more-balanced view of the currency. In the previous major bear market rallies in Japan, equity strength has generally coincided with yen strength, not yen weakness. If this current Japanese equity rally has been in large part fuelled by yen weakness, a bullish reversal in the currency would be a nasty headwind for stock investors. Global Roundup United States The Dow Industrial s record closing high on Tuesday and the follow-through in subsequent sessions didn t prompt as much media hoopla as previous milestones. Interestingly, sentiment among individual investors has deteriorated markedly. The AAII Bull-Bear Spread has fallen to from on January 24, meaning there are now more bears than bulls. Also, equity traders indicate institutional investors, on balance, seem somewhat cautious and skeptical of the rally. 3 GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY MARCH 8, 2013

4 Global Roundup Canada Canadian equities ended the week on a higher note as weakness in Financials and Utilities was offset by strength in Consumer Staples and Health Care. In Financials, Bank of Nova Scotia reported slightly better-than-expected first-quarter results, while Canadian Western Bank shares fell after its results showed margin pressure continues to be a recurring theme. Other notable movers in Canada included Atlantic Power, which continued its decline after the company cut its dividend last week, and Trilogy Energy, which surged after better-than-expected netbacks drove cash flow per share in the company s fourth-quarter results. In M&A, Corus Entertainment announced a C$494M deal to acquire specialty channel and radio assets owned by BCE and Shaw. Canadian government bond yields moved higher across the yield curve with maturities of 10 years or greater posting the largest increase, resulting in a steeper yield curve. The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its overnight rate at 1.0%, as was universally expected. However, the statement garnered considerable attention as the BoC softened its tightening bias by stating that the 1% overnight rate is appropriate for a period of time, suggesting a much-softer stance toward an imminent interest rate increase. Canada s February employment report was much better than expected, with jobs increasing by 50.7K versus consensus estimates of 8K. The unemployment rate held steady at 7.0%, lower than economists 7.1% consensus forecast. February s significant gain in employment comes one month after the Canadian labour market contracted in January by 21.9K. Coming up: Existing Home Sales (Mar 15). Europe The week was dominated by central bank meetings. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates on hold. Its 2013 and 2014 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth Canada and the U.S. Continue to Make Steady Progress United States Canada Unemployment Rate (%) % 7.0% Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; final data points February 2013 forecasts were revised downwards. GDP is now expected to contract 0.5% in 2013 (from 0.3% in the December projections) and to grow 1% for 2014 (from 1.2%). These downgrades were mainly driven by the negative carry-over effect from weaker-than-expected 4Q12 GDP growth. Nevertheless, the current assessment of the economy is mostly unchanged from the February meeting, with the ECB expecting a stabilisation of the economy and a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. With the inflation outlook becoming more benign, further easing remains a possibility, and RBC Capital Markets economists believe any material downside macro news and/or a substantial tightening in financial conditions (via market rates or the exchange rate) would lead the Bank to cut rates. In the U.K., Bank of England (BoE) left monetary policy unchanged, with the bank rate remaining at 0.5% and the size of the asset purchase facility maintained at 375B. As this decision was taken despite the weakness of recent economic indicators, the BoE probably believed the recent steep fall in the pound might put upside risk to inflation forecasts. Coming up: U.K. Industrial Production (Mar 12); Euro Area Industrial Production (Mar 13); European Council Summit (Mar 14-15). Asia Pacific On March 5, China s property stocks dropped the most in five years after the State Council provided more detailed guidelines on housing price curbs. Cities with excessively fast price gains were asked to raise down payment requirements and interest rates on second-home mortgages, and were told a 20% capital gain tax on resale of units within five years of purchase needs to be strictly collected. With further detailed regulations successively issued at the local government and department levels, the property sector should remain volatile in the coming month. China National People s Congress began on Tuesday, and 2013 economic targets were announced. The growth target stayed at 7.5%; inflation target was lowered to 3.5% from 4% in 2012; and M2 growth was set at 13% compared to the 2012 target of 14% and actual growth at 13.8%. The 2013 fiscal budget deficit was raised 50%, to 1.2 trillion yuan, to support consumer demand. Government leadership will formerly change at the meeting. Friday s data showed China s exports increased 21.8% y/y in February, exceeding the 8.1% median estimate. Imports fell a more-thanestimated 15.2%, leaving a trade surplus of $15.25B. In Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, nominee for Bank of Japan governor, pledged to do whatever we can to end 15 years of deflation at a confirmation hearing in the parliament. He stated that the scale and scope of the assets purchased by the central bank so far are not enough and indicated that he would consider bringing forward openend asset purchases which were originally planned to start next year. Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MAGIC), backed by assets in Hong Kong and China, became Asia s biggest share sale this year by raising S$1.6B (US$1.3B) in Singapore. 4 GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY MARCH 8, 2013

5 Important Disclosures Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report. Important Disclosures RBC Wealth Management is a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, which is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Adrian Brown, Lucy So, Jay Roberts, & Yufei Yang, employees of RBC Wealth Management USA s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion Securities Inc.; and Frédérique Carrier, an employee of RBC Wealth Management USA s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication. 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If you do not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Copyright RBC Capital Markets, LLC Member NYSE/ FINRA/SIPC Copyright RBC Dominion Securities Inc Member - Canadian Investor Protection Fund Copyright RBC Europe Limited 2013 Copyright Royal Bank of Canada 2013 All rights reserved 6 GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY MARCH 8, 2013