V LATILITY YOUR FRIEND VOLATILITY IS NOT THE SAME THING AS RISK, AND INVESTORS WHO THINK IT IS WILL COST THEMSELVES MONEY.
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1 MAKE V LATILITY YOUR FRIEND VOLATILITY IS NOT THE SAME THING AS RISK, AND INVESTORS WHO THINK IT IS WILL COST THEMSELVES MONEY. - WARREN BUFFETT As I have stated many times before, and as the Warren Buffett quote states, volatility is not the same as risk. I realize that many in the financial services industry speak differently. However, many investors do not experience the same Flexibility and Transparency as clients who work with Nepsis. As Warren Buffett stated in one of his past annual letters, The unconventional, but, inescapable, conclusion to be drawn from the past fifty years is that it has been far safer to invest in a diversified collection of American businesses than to invest in securities Treasuries, for example whose values have been tied to American currency. His comments of course are echoed in part of the Nepsis, Inc. Investment Philosophy and Strategy Invest in great businesses over time while allowing volatility the opportunity of taking advantage of buying more of a great business when it is on sale. Nepsis believes that the purpose behind completing our Investment Policy and Objective Setting Questionnaire (IPOSQ) is to identify an individual s personal risk tolerances which in turn enable their portfolios to be managed consistently following objectives based on their personal risk and volatility tolerance. Investors continue to live in a world of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD). However, if they are confident their portfolio investment objectives have been accurately identified and recognized, FUD should never have a place in their investment process or emotions! cont. next page 1
2 The Thought Process Behind How Nepsis Invests for Our Clients Let me be very clear, it s the combinations of these beliefs (and others) that encompass our Investment Process: 1. Portfolios should not only be diversified, but also, asset allocated both in the United States and outside the United States. The Nepsis portfolio strategy is categorized as Unconstrained Global Asset Allocation Strategy. For appropriate allocation, we own businesses in the U.S. and in International and Emerging Markets. 2. Risk is not the same as volatility. Because we believe in the power of Strategic Cost Averaging (SCA), volatility should be considered an opportunity to take advantage of continually investing in great businesses over time as long as the long-term fundamentals have not changed. 3. Portfolios should be allocated in a manner which enables investors to emotionally handle volatility over short periods of time based on their personal risk tolerances and investment objectives. 4. Investors should be aware of what they own in their portfolios and why they own it. 5. Investors should benefit from the Flexibility & Transparency of a time tested Investment Philosophy & Strategy. 6. No one position should make or break the long-term objectives of the portfolio. Bottom Line: Invest With Clarity Update regarding ZEST (Ecoark Holdings) A great example of volatility and the Strategic Cost Averaging (SCA) process is ZEST. Because ZEST is our largest holding many clients follow this position very closely. For purposes of a great SCA example, Zest provided us a tremendous opportunity to take advantage of buying more of the company on sale and reducing cost basis for most of our clients in While we have been fortunate to have been able to reduce the cost basis for clients, it s important to understand that when we make decisions to continually invest in a business over time, there is a buy discipline and a sell discipline we adhere to. In light of recent news from the company, it s clear to me that the long-term fundamentals continue to improve for this company. In our opinion, the volatility of this stock has created the opportunity to take advantage of purchasing more of this company on sale. For those who may not know, I have been an investor in Zest for over six years. I have been involved with this company since they were private and went public just over two years ago. Forthrightly, there are several reasons for why the stock and company has not performed well. However, be assured, as part of our investment process, we continue to assess the longterm fundamentals of all the companies we invest into. With recent news from Zest and their competitive position, I believe the long-term fundamentals of this company are not only very good, I believe they will continue to improve. As I always say, Investing in great businesses is a long-term process. As long as the company s long-term fundamentals have remained constant, OR better yet have improved, investors should look at volatility as part of an overall asset allocation strategy. Don t allow yourself to get caught up in the emotions of short-term performance. Remember, it is NOT about each individual company you own in your portfolio. Every position is owned for a specific reason to accomplish a LONG-TERM objective of the entire portfolio. I cannot stress enough the importance of sticking to the investment process. That being said, could we be wrong over time? Of course! This is why, as we manage clients allocations, understand that we use allocation models (based on investment objectives) when investing client assets. In other words, for each position within a model, there is a target percentage we want our clients to own. Each target percentage is one piece of an overall allocation. These models are carefully created to help our clients reach their investment goals based on their personal investment objectives and risk tolerances. While we stick to an investment process, some investors may feel uncomfortable with their position in any company. If this is true for you, it is of utmost importance that you communicate your thoughts with your advisor. If you would like to know more about the company, I encourage you to check out the company at 2
3 Know What You Own and Why You Own It Investing With Clarity SPOTLIGHT - Baozun, Inc. (BZUN) Executive Summary: We believe that Baozun is fundamentally an attractive online e-commerce company in China over the long-term; and, with the recent initiatives by the Chinese government to accelerate cross-border e-commerce trade, we believe Baozun is well positioned to participate in the growth of the e-commerce industry in China. Millennials and working professionals are increasingly ordering consumer goods online, with delivery systems that are driving towards immediate gratification and reshaping shopping behavior. This is just one reason an e-commerce business is attractive. Following the announcements of U.S. tariffs, one response from the Chinese government is to accelerate e-commerce growth. From an investment perspective, there is a benefit to investing in developing market countries, such as China, to capture the benefits of higher growth rates. For a more in depth paper on this company, please Alyssa Greene at agreene@investwithclarity.com 1 Globe Newswire, 4/11/18. 3
4 DIVERSIFICATION & ASSET ALLOCATION Investors are bombarded with prognostications, postulations and speculations regarding how their investment portfolio should perform (over short periods of time) by many so-called experts. However, as I mention many times, the fact of the matter is, investment success is a process over time by following a time-tested investment Philosophy & Strategy. Many investors believe they are diversified. More than likely, they probably are. In fact, most portfolios we assess are actually OVER-diversified. It s been my experience that many investors confuse or don t understand the difference between diversification and asset allocation. What s the difference? In its simplest form Diversification is a function of owning multiple investments in the SAME asset class. Asset Allocation includes diversification of similar assets in one asset class, but, asset allocation takes it a step further by owning investments in different asset classes as well (i.e. bonds, stocks, cash, international stocks, emerging market stocks, gold, real estate, etc.). In today s investment climate, investors are bombarded with the idea of investing in low cost index funds. While that has proven in the short-term to be a good strategy, it does NOT mean you should adhere to owning 100% of your investments in U.S. stocks and indexes. The only index investors should use is the long-term investment and planning goals. As discussed in previous quarterly updates, our portfolios are structured in a SMA format. There are two types of SMA portfolios: The Single Style portfolio (a distinct equity, fixed income or balanced investment style), which of course should give you diversification. The second is the Multiple-Style SMA. This strategy uses several different investment styles in a single portfolio. The Multiple-Style portfolio is how Nepsis manages our clients portfolios. Nepsis uses the Multiple Style process because it not only provides the diversification, but it also provides the asset allocation (portfolios do not own all of the same types of assets in the portfolio, whether it s stocks, bonds or others). This is why we DO NOT subscribe to using indexes as our portfolios don t have an adequate comparable index due to the fact we are using an asset allocation strategy as well as a diversification strategy. We believe this process provides greater flexibility in helping investors accomplish their LONG-TERM investment goals as opposed to short-term goals. BOTTOM LINE: Nepsis utilizes a Multiple Style SMA approach for managing client portfolios. This process creates a greater asset allocation format so that investors have greater flexibility in taking advantage of opportunities to accomplish their long-term investment goals. 4
5 GOOD THINGS COME TO THOSE WHO WAIT From the desk of Chuck D. Etzweiler, Senior VP of Global Research Although we do not know the results of the Mid-Term Elections which will occur this November 6th; what we do know with a high amount of certainty is the rancor and discord that will take place with the House of Representatives up for grabs. Always erring on the side of being apolitical, we rarely espouse our views on issues unless they of course pertain to the world of investing. There is no better time than the present to show the historical relationship between the Mid-Term Election Cycle, which in this case is the second year of a President s first term, and the performance of stocks. In the adjacent chart prepared by the Ned Davis Group and based on data going back to 1900, we currently sit right smack in the middle of the worst six-month period of performance for the stock market based on the four years of the Presidential Cycle. This period based on 118 years of data lasts right up to one month before the election. More importantly, it is what directly follows this poor performance that allows those with patience to be rewarded over the longer term. Note that directly following the Mid-term Elections once the results are known and ambiguity is wiped off of the slate, the best six-month period of the Presidential cycle occurs. The key take away is that based on 118 years of data the worst of times are followed by the best of times and that truly Good things do come to those who wait. DOW INDUSTRIALS FOUR-YEAR PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE Copyright 2018 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at For data vendor disclaimers refer to 5
6 THE STATE OF FIXED INCOME As I write this update, the 10 year U.S. Treasury is just under 3%. As we have been telling clients since 2013, we believe the risks associated with investing in fixed income investments have risks associated with them to a level we believe does not warrant the expected return (risk vs reward). Frankly, we have been very accurate on our assessment and associated returns owning bonds. We continue to watch ideas in the fixed income markets for opportunities. In the meantime, remember what is most important about a portfolio is the allocation of the portfolio relative to its identified investment objective. Therefore, we continue to favor solid dividend producing companies with long standing businesses to continue to provide income opportunities for our clients and continue to hold cash as we look for opportunities that have appropriate risk versus the potential reward. As Nepsis, Inc. continues to grow, we appreciate your continued confidence and support. We believe successful investing requires Investing with Clarity. We look forward to continually providing you with the Clarity needed to be a successful investor long-term. Respectfully, Mark Pearson President, Founder & CIO Nepsis, Inc. 6
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