Fig. 3.1 shows recession indicator im-bcig above last week s level. An imminent recession is not signaled.

Transcription

1 Business Cycle Index : The BCI at is up from last week s 21.8, continuing forming a new high for this Business Cycle indicated by the BCIp at 1.. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 16.3 is also up from last week s No recession is signaled. Summary : The MAC-US and is invested. Also, both the 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P5 and the VMNFX vs. SPY Timer are invested in the markets. The MAC-AU is also invested. The monthly update S&P5 Coppock indicator entered the markets in May. The recession indicators COMP and im-bcig do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds; the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold model is invested and the silver model exited the market on June 24. Stock-market: The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/216 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread is above last week s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell. The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P5, is below last week s level and at 9.3 (last week 1.43) and above the sell trigger of 5., it still invested in the market after it generated a buy signal on 3/23/216. The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer signaled an entry into the stock markets on 3/28/216. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to rise above the 2% trigger line. The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets after it generated a buy signal on March 21, 216. The sell-spread is near last week s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell. This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations Recession: Fig. 3 shows the COMP is above last week s level, and does not signaling a recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing. Fig. 3.1 shows recession indicator im-bcig above last week s level. An imminent recession is not signaled. Fig 3.2: The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 1-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-1) is below last week s level and far away from signaling a recession.

2 A description of this indicator can be found here. Bond-market: The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds. The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 4. The BVR is below last week s level. According to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again. It would appear that BVR has peaked end of January 215. The Yield Curve: The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 1-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i1 i2) which declined over the last year, which declined over the last year, was temporary halted, and now continues its downward trend. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR. Gold: The modified Coppock Gold indicator is shown in Fig 6. This model generated a buy signal last week and is invested. This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? - Wait for the buy signal... The im GOLD-TIMER is shown in Fig. 6.1, it is invested in gold. This indicator is described in our article: The im Gold-Timer Silver: The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7 and exited the market on June 24, 216, as the holding period since the last buy has expired. This indicator is described in Silver - Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver. Monthly Update Summary : (next update 1/7/216) Unemployment The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the August UER of 4.9%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon. The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread: The latest DAGS level of 25 (last month 24) is above the recession warning trigger line, indicating that it is unlikely for a recession to start during the next 9 months.

3 However should this downward trend continue then, according to this indicator, a recession could be expected to begin after June-217. Coppock Indicator for the S&P5 The Coppock indicator for the S&P5 generated a buy signal on May 19, 216. This model is now in the market. This indicator is described here. This indicator is described here. Trade Weighted USD The TW$ value has steadied and the 6 month moving average trend is still falling. TIAA Real Estate Account As of end of August 216 the 1-year rolling return is 6.16%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund has retreated from the all-time high; however, the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue. A sell signal is not imminent. Read more

4 1/1/ 1/1/1 1/1/2 1/1/3 1/1/4 1/1/5 1/1/6 1/1/7 1/1/8 1/1/9 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 BCIg : the growth of BCI and 6 is added to it BCI : the Business Cycle Index and S&P5/1 BCIp : The BCI in off-peak-mode im's Business Cycle Index (BCI) Date BCIp BCI BCIg 8/ / / / / BCIp, BCI and BCIg updated to September 8, 216 On past performance, BCIp = 1 can be interpreted as an average one year "time-tolive" to a recession BCIp On past performance, when BCIp moved from above to below 25 a recession followed, on average, 2 weeks later 5 day average of S&P BCI 4 14 BCIg On past performance, when BCIg moved from above to below zero a recession followed, on average, 11 weeks later

5 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 S&P 5 Spread Please note: Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money using this model. Figure 2: Buy and Sell signals for S&P from the modified golden-cross MAC-System 22 recession S&P5 updated to 9/8/ buy signal sell signal buy-spread= 34d EMA - 2d EMA* sell-spread= 4d MA - 2d MA 4 18 zero last buy spread= 79.6 last sell spread= MAC rev xlsm

6 1/1/9 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 Australia All Ordinairies Index Spread Please note: Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money using this model Fig 2.1: Buy and Sell signals for the Australia All Ordinaries Index from the MAC-AU System Sell Spread updated to Sep-9-16 last sell spread= Buy Spread Australia All Ordinaries Index MAC Australia.xlsm

7 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 Sell 4/21/215 Buy 11/23/215 Buy 3/23/216 S&P 5 3-mo Hi-Lo Index & SMA:4 % Fig mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P5 & 4-day SMA of Index 2,3 updated to 9/8/216 last SMA:4= 9.3% 6 2,2 5 2,1 4 2, 3 1,9 2 1,8 1 1,7 1,6-1 1,5-2 1,4-3 1,3-4 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 S&P 5 Value SMA:4 Trigger= 5. Sell 12/17/

8 1/1/1999 1/1/2 1/1/21 1/1/22 1/1/23 1/1/24 1/1/25 1/1/26 1/1/27 1/1/28 1/1/29 1/1/21 1/1/211 1/1/212 1/1/213 1/1/214 1/1/215 1/1/216 1/1/217 3/26/1 1/7/8 9/19/11 1/3/12 11/9/15 3/28/16 5/12/3 6/22/9 SPY VMNFX Over/Under Performance % 23 Market Timer based on Performance of Vanguard Market Neutral Fund VMNFX vs. SPY updated to 9/6/216 4% Performance 3% 2% % 2.% 1% % 13-1% 11-2% 9-3% 7 SPY -4% 5-5% SPY smoothed performance ratio zero sell trigger buy trigger sell SPY buy SPY

9 COMP 8 6 Fig. 3: COMP Leading Indicator of US Economy COMP level on 8/19/16 = COMP level on 8/26/16 = 22.1 COMP level on 9/2/16 = 22.2 COMP level on 9/9/16 = current level of COMP= recession COMP last COMP level recession trigger Note: Some of the levels of COMP may differ from previous releases due to revisions of COMP's components recession trigger line COMP.xlsm

10 im-bcig 5 4 Fig 3.1: im-bcig level on 8/19/16 = level on 8/26/16 = level on 9/2/16 = level on 9/9/16 = recession im-bcig end level recession trigger 3 current level recession trigger -2 BCIg has exceeded the current level 19.39% of the time from 1969 to present. -3 BCIg Toni.xlsm

11 Jan-68 Jan-7 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-8 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-9 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan- Jan-2 Jan-4 Jan-6 Jan-8 Jan-1 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 S&P5 (left axis, log scale) FRR2-1 (right axis, normal scale) Figure 3.2: Forward Rate Ratio FRR2-1 - leads to Recessions 1 1 FRR2-1 is the ratio of the rate at which one can lock in borrowing for the eight year period starting two years from now, and the ten-year rate itself. The FRR2-1 is indicative of the slope of the yield curve between the two-year and the ten-year note yields; a FRR2-1 greater than 1. indicates a positively sloped yield curve (ten-year note yields are higher than two-year note yields); a FRR2-1 less than 1. indicates an inversion of the yield curve (two-year note yields are higher than ten-year note yields). The last seven recessions were all preceded by a FRR2-1 less than 1. updated to 9/8/216 EMA of FRR2-1 = S&P5 1.4 smoothed Forward Rate Ratio im-fig FRR2-1.xlsm Page 1

12 1/1/5 1/1/6 1/1/7 1/1/8 1/1/9 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 BVR Note: Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money using this model. Figure 4: Bond Value Ratio (BVR) from 25 to upper offset limit +.1 lower offset limit -.1 Model updated to: 9/8/216 BVR = 6.16 Limit lines recalibrated on 2/1/215 upper switch point: sell high beta bond fund, buy low beta bond fund BVR at all-time high 6. upper offset limit line BVR 5.8 BVR best-fit line Aug-1986 to Jan-215 R-squared = lower offset limit line lower switch point: sell low beta bond fund, buy high beta bond fund BVR recalibrated.xlsm fig4bvr6-14

13 1/1/1 1/1/11 1/1/12 1/1/13 1/1/14 1/1/15 1/1/16 1/1/17 i1 - i2 Note: Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money using this model. Figure 5: i1 - i2 Updated to..9/8/ buy FLAT buy STPP i1-i2 EMA (i1-i2) buy STPP buy FLAT buy FLAT 2.5 (i1 - i2) the difference btw. 1 - & 2 yr T-note yields has a negative slope, meaning (i1 - i2) is becoming smaller (i1 - i2) has a positive slope, meaning (i1 - i2) is becoming bigger Yield Curve.xlsm 9-15

14 Gold Price $/oz Coppock indicator 2 19 Figure 6: Modified Coppock Indicator for Gold updated to 9/9/216 period in gold buy signals yoy RRC% stdev gold price 12 coppock indicator line= New Buy Signal $ COPPOCK GOLD for updates.xlsm

15 Previous Sell Signal: 5/9/211 Last Buy Signal: 7/2/215 LONDON GOLD (PM FIX) Growth of $1 invested 1/2/1999 in Gold as per im Gold-Timer 25 Fig. 6.1 im GOLD-TIMER Updated to: 9/8/ Invested Gold London PM Return

16 Silver Price $/oz Coppock indicator Figure 7: Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver updated to 9/9/216 period in silver buy signals yoy RRC% stdev 2 silver price coppock indicator 16 line= $