Q2 11 Results Conference Call

Transcription

1 Q2 11 Results Conference Call Lakshmi N Mittal, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Aditya Mittal, Chief Financial Officer 27 July 2011

2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words believe, expect, anticipate, target or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC ) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal s Annual Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2010 filed with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. 1

3 Agenda Results overview and recent developments Market outlook Results analysis Guidance Safety remains the No1 priority for ArcelorMittal 2

4 Safety Quarterly Health & Safety rate* (mining & steel) Governance, people, community and sustainability initiatives ArcelorMittal Mines Canada was recognised by the Quebec Occupational Health and Safety Committee for their innovative adaptation lift system which significantly reduces the risk of hand and back injuries. Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 ArcelorMittal held its fifth annual Health and Safety Day. The 2011 global Health and Safety Day provides an opportunity for employees across the operations to share best practice and reaffirm commitment to ArcelorMittal s Journey to Zero continuous improvement programme. Health and safety performance deteriorated to a Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate of 1.5. Improvement in the safety performance of FCE, AACIS and AMDS offset by weaker performance in Mining, Long and FCA reportable segments ArcelorMittal Ostrava opens University campus in Czech Republic. The newly reconstructed training centre becomes part of the ArcelorMittal University which already has campuses in Luxembourg and South Africa and is central to the Group s training and development activities. Safety remains the No1 priority for ArcelorMittal * IISI-standard: Fr = Lost Time Injuries per worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors 3

5 Snapshot: Profitability clearly improving 2Q 11 EBITDA increased 21.5% y-o-y to $3.4 billion; 1H EBITDA $6.0bn, 32.9% higher than 1H 10 2Q 11 EBITDA/t of $154, 22.2% higher than 2Q 10 Own iron ore production 13.1Mt in 2Q 11 and 24.9Mt in 1H 11; on track for 10% growth this year Net Debt: increased to $25bn, slightly above target levels Guidance: 3Q 11 EBITDA expected at $ bn as compared to $2.2bn reported in 3Q EBITDA progression (US$mn) 154/t 126/t /t 1206 Q2'09 Q2'10 Q2'11 Group EBITDA (US$mn) Q 2H H H 1H H Q2 11 and H1 11 saw continued recovery of profitability relative to 2010 levels 4

6 Mining Capex and Growth Plans AMMC: Expansion from 16Mt iron ore to 24Mt by 2013 approved Liberia: iron ore production has started; 1 st commercial shipment due Q3 11 Liberia Crushing/Screening Plant EM Steel / Value-Added Brazil: Vega Do Sul expansion approved additional 0.6Mt of HDG capacity and 0.7Mt of cold rolling capacity AMMC: Mont-Wright Mining Complex 2011 Capex budget increased from $5.0bn to $5.5bn (vs. $3.3bn spend in 2010) Improved profitability and strong balance sheet forms platform for sustainable growth 5

7 Macarthur Coal proposal JV partnership formed (40pc MT, 60pc Peabody) to make a takeover offer to Macarthur shareholders In line with ArcelorMittal's mining strategy to increase exposure to Coking Coal The JV seeks a minimum of 50% + one share. As a result, the minimum cash requirement to finance ArcelorMittal s share of the JV bid is circa A$200mn* Peabody deal would offer significant benefits from potentially a small cash outlay Macarthur Coal Limited MCC is the world s largest seaborne PCI coal producer, representing ~35% of seaborne supply Macarthur Coal has three operating mines in Queensland s Bowen Basin and a fourth mine in development Macarthur Coal has plans to double its 2009 production capacity by 2014 to a target of 9.2mt per year MacArthur Coal proposal in line with existing Mining strategy * The various cash outflow scenarios for ArcelorMittal based on the indicated $A15.50/sh offer level are: BidCo at 50.01% threshold = A$184mn outflow; all shareholders excluding Citic and Posco tender = A$528mn outflow; all shareholders excluding Citic tender = A$660mn outflow; all shareholders tender to the offer = A$1120mn outflow 6

8 Market outlook 7

9 Economic momentum has slowed Regional PMI Global leading indicators have declined during 2Q 11 Expansion Contraction China Euro A rea USA In the US, energy and equipment investment remains strong, while manufacturing output has stabilised in Q2 at Q1 11 levels In Northern Europe, improving employment, auto sales and exports remain supportive of growth but at a slower pace In Southern Europe conditions remain challenging as austerity measures continue and uncertainty rises Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Private construction output in China in H2 11 is expected to slow as government controls start to bite. Any slowdown is expected to be offset by increased public housing. Global leading indicators slowed down in Q2 11 after a particularly strong Q1 11 8

10 Expansion Developed world construction stabilising US construction indicators (SAAR) $billion Jan-02 Jan-03 Residential Non-Residential Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Eurozone and US construction indicators Jan-10 Eurozone construction PMI USA Architecural Billings Index Jan-11 Developed world construction remains weak In the US, non-res construction stabilising at a low level; Architectural Billings Index below 50 (46.3 in June) suggesting recovery in 2012 at the earliest US residential construction could improve sooner new starts at a six month high, forward looking permits rising In Europe, the two-speed recovery continues; construction in Northern Europe recovering, while Southern Europe remains weak Contraction Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Eurozone Construction PMI also below 50 level but >50 in Germany and linked economies Construction end markets (~1/3 of developed world steel demand) yet to recover 9

11 China demand growth relatively strong China Construction Indicator (Million Metre sq.) Floor Space under construction (12mma) 270 New ly Started Construction (SA) 230 We expect a soft landing for the Chinese economy Construction has remained strong in H Jan Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Net Exports of Finished Steel (000t) Jan-10 Jan-11 Controls on private real estate market are having an impact; but any slowdown should be offset by increased public housing spend We still expect a slowdown in steel production in the coming months but we still expect ASC growth of over 8.5% in Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Exports peaked at 4.8mmt in Mar 11, but have since fallen for three straight months; June exports of 4.3mmt (-23% y-o-y). Overall 2011 net exports expected at 32mt vs 24.5mt in 2010 We have increased our forecasts for China ASC growth to >8.5% in

12 Inventory levels are supportive Europe Service Centre Inventories (Mn MT) EU (EASSC) 2400 Months Supply Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan US Service Centre Total Steel Inventories (Mn MT) USA (MSCI) Months Supply Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Brazil Service Centre Inventories (Mn MT) China Inventories in 25 Major Cities (Mn MT) 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Jan-07 Jul-07 Flat stocks at service centres Months of supply Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan Jan-07 Jul-07 Flat Jan-08 Jul-08 Long Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Inventory levels are at or below normal levels in all regions other than Brazil 11

13 Raw materials supporting steel prices Spot iron ore, coking coal and scrap price (index IH 2008=100) Regional Steel price HRC ($/t) Iron Ore Coking Coal China domestic Shanghai 110 Scrap 1100 N.America FOB Midw est N.Europe domestic ex-w orks Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Raw material prices have stabilized and are expected to support steel prices at or above current levels 12

14 Financial Results 13 ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton Port and Steel works

15 Segment Highlights Segmental EBITDA (US$mn) FCA FCE Long AACIS AMDS Mining Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Steel Segment EBITDA/tonne (US$) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 FCA FCE Long AACIS AMDS FCA: EBITDA + 41% y-o-y; $167 EBITDA/t Stronger prices in all markets; ASP +$130/t compared to Q1 11 Shipments 3% higher than 2Q 10 FCE: EBITDA +14% y-o-y; $89 EBITDA/t ASP +$98/t compared to Q1 11 Shipments 5% lower than 2Q 10 due to mild destocking activity Long: EBITDA -10% y-o-y; $99 EBITDA/t ASP +$71/t compared to Q1 11 Shipments 3% higher than 2Q 10 due to better demand in all markets AACIS: EBITDA +11% y-o-y; $140 EBITDA/t ASP $77/t higher than 1Q 11 Shipments -3% lower than 2Q 10 due to operational problems in Ukraine (Kriviy Rih) AMDS: EBITDA -39% y-o-y ASP $67/t higher than 1Q 11 Shipments stable compared to 2Q 10 Mining: EBITDA +30% y-o-y Sales +35% vs. 2Q 10 Own iron ore production +2% y-o-y; Own coal production +21% y-o-y Q2 11 saw underlying EBITDA improve in all business segments except Distribution & Services 14

16 EBITDA analysis 1Q11 v 2Q11 EBITDA bridge 1Q 11 to 2Q 11 ($million) ,413 2,582 Q1'11 EBITDA Volume & Mix Selling Price / Cost Non Steel EBITDA* Others** Q2'11 EBITDA EBITDA increased by 32% in 2Q 11 v 1Q 11 primarily driven by higher positive price/cost impact * Non Steel EBITDA variance primarily represents the gain/loss through sale of by- products ** Others primarily represents delta impact from provisions, DDH income and forex (net impact on revenue and costs) 15

17 Group P&L ($million) Q Depreciation: (1161) impairment: (0) Interest: (457) Forex and other: (443) Weighted Avg No of shares: 1549 Current tax: (311) Diluted Weighted Avg No of shares: 1638 Deferred tax: 250 Non-controlling (41) EPS = $ 0.99/share -904 Diluted EPS = $ 0.93/share (0) ($million) EBITDA Depreciation and impairment Operating Income Depreciation: (1133) impairment: (18) Income from Equity Finance Cost Pre-tax Profit Interest: (459) Forex and other: (667) Taxes and noncontrolling Interest Net Income from Continuing Ops Discontinued Operations Net Income Weighted Avg No of shares: 1549 Diluted Weighted Avg No of shares: 1550 Q , , Current tax: (314) Deferred tax: 480 Non-controlling (11) EPS = $ 0.69/share Diluted EPS = $ 0.69/share 1,069 Net income from continuing operations increased by over 150% from Q1 to Q

18 Free Cash flow ($million) Change in w orking capital 3,413 2,811 Net financials, tax ex penses and others -1, Capex -1,065-1,638 EBITDA Cash Flow from Operations Free Cash Flow Negative free cash flow primarily driven by investment in working capital 17

19 Group Cash flow and net debt ($million) Net Debt at 31 March 2011 Free Cash Flow Net M&A Dividends Forex Others Net Debt at 30 Jun 2011 Net Debt increased due to investment in working capital, forex and increased M&A 18

20 Guidance 19 Upgraded railway line linking mine with port at Liberia

21 Outlook and guidance Steel: - Raw material accounting costs expected to increase from 2Q 2011 levels - Steel shipments are expected to be above 2H 2010 levels 2H 2011 Mining: - On track for 2011 volume growth of 10% for iron ore and 20% for coking coal - Mining will benefit from higher prices while costs should be stable 2H 2011 Group EBITDA per tonne margins are expected to be above 2H 2010 level - Q EBITDA is expected to be approximately $2.4 - $2.8 billion 3Q Working capital requirements and net debt to remain stable as compared to 2Q H 11 expected to show improvement over 2H 10 due to higher shipments and higher mining volumes/prices 20

22 Questions 21

23 Appendix 22 ArcelorMittal Dofasco, Hamilton Port and Steel works

24 Liberia iron ore: Phase 1 near complete Guinea Sierra Leone 240km rail rehabilitation completed Upgrade of Buchanan port and material handling facilities completed First Direct Shipping Ore ( DSO ) product to be shipped in Q3 11-1Mt in FY11 ramping up to 4Mt in 2012 The expansion to 15Mt in Liberia will require investment in a concentrator which is currently in the final stages of approval Atlantic Ocean Buchanan Railway link from Yekepa to Buchanan (270km) Liberia Yekepa Ivory Coast First Liberia DSO production on track to be shipped in Q

25 AMMC (Canada): expansion underway Canadian industrial location Bloom Lake ArcelorMittal Mines Canada (formerly QCM) overview Estimated resources of 7.9 billion tonnes at 29% Fe* A similar enterprise to Rio Tinto s IOCC (Iron Ore Company of Canada) Expansion of our Mont Wright mine at AAMC and concentrate capacity to 24Mtpa due 2013 (from 16Mtpa post operational improvements) approved Expansion capitalising on existing infrastructure, product quality and experienced workforce Capex C$1.2bn for mine and concentrator plant expansion** Cash cost is circa $35/tonne Advantageously located with easy access to European and US markets Mining expansion plan (concentrate) Million mt ` Mine expansion Operational effeciency Canada base Strategic advantage from exclusive use of own rail and port facilities * Audited by Pincock, Allen & Holt in 2009 ** Total scheme investment of US$2.1 billion includes investment in expanding the pellet plant which has not yet been committed to 24

26 Apparent demand continues to recover Global Apparent Steel Consumption (ASC)* (million tonnes per month) 55 US and European Apparent Steel Consumption (ASC)** (million tonnes per month) Developing ex China China Developed EU27 USA Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 3 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Global ASC +1.0% in 2Q11 vs. 1Q11 7.0% in 1H11 vs. 1H10 EU ASC -4.0% in 2Q11 vs.1q % in 1H11 vs.1h10 China ASC +2.6% in 2Q11 vs. 1Q11 9.0% in 1H11 vs. 1H10 US ASC +1.9% in 2Q11 vs. 1Q % in 1H11 vs. 1H10 Global ASC estimated to have risen 1.0% in 2Q 2011 v 1Q 2011; +7.0% 1H11 v 1H10 * ArcelorMittal estimates ** AISI, Eurofer and ArcelorMittal estimates 25

27 Global apparent steel consumption 1400 ASC growth 2011: RoW: 6.5-7% +5% NAFTA: +9.5% 6.5-7% - EU27: +7.5% China: >8.5% 6.5-7% China EU27 NAFTA ROW We expect global Apparent Steel Consumption growth of % in

28 Flat Carbon Americas (FCA) FCA - EBITDA (US$mn, LHS) and ASP (US$/t, RHS) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 FCA Steel shipments (000t) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2' EBITDA increased to $924m from $528m in Q1 11 and $657m in Q2 10 Crude steel production increased 3.5% to 6.3Mt from 6.1Mt in Q1 11 Steel shipments marginally declined 0.8% to 5.5Mt from 5.6Mt in Q1 11 ASP increased significantly 15.8% to $961/t from $830/t in Q1 11 Reported Q1 11 EBITDA included $185m non-cash items (inventory write-back and provision reversal) FCA EBITDA increased sharply primarily due to rapid price increases 27

29 Flat Carbon Europe (FCE) FCE - EBITDA (US$mn, LHS) and ASP (US$/t, RHS) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 FCE Steel shipments (000t) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2' EBITDA increased to $636m from $471m in Q1 11 and $560m in Q2 10 Crude steel production increased 3.1% to 7.9Mt from 7.6Mt in Q1 11 Production increased in all divisions reflecting higher demand, except in the Romania operations following furnace maintenance Steel shipments decreased 3.0% to 7.2Mt from 7.4Mt in Q1 11, following strong Q1 11 and marginal destock entering seasonal weak Q3 11 ASP increased 10.6% to $1026/t from $928/t in Q1 11 Reported EBITDA included $189m impact from dynamic delta hedge (DDH) (Vs. $119m in Q1 11) FCE improved per-tonne profitability - price rises offsetting cost increases 28

30 Long Carbon Americas & Europe (LCAE) Long - EBITDA (US$mn, LHS) and ASP (US$/t, RHS) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Long Steel shipments (000t) EBITDA increased to $610m from $480m in Q1 11 and was lower as compared to $677m in Q2 10 Crude steel production increased 5.9% to 6.4Mt from 6.1Mt in Q1 11 Production rates increased both in Americas and in Europe reflecting seasonally strong quarter and improved demand Steel shipments increased 5.0% to 6.2Mt from 5.9Mt in Q1 11 ASP increased 7.9% to $973/t from $902/t in Q1 11 Compared to 2Q 10, EBITDA declined y-o-y due to lower prices in Brazil driven by local currency appreciation Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Long Carbon benefited from higher demand in Europe and seasonality in Brazil 29

31 Asia, Africa and CIS (AACIS) AACIS - EBITDA (US$mn, LHS) and ASP (US$/t, RHS) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 AACIS Steel shipments (000t) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2' EBITDA increased to $462m from $254m in Q1 11 and $417m in Q2 10 Crude steel production increased 3.3% to 3.8Mt from 3.7Mt in Q1 11 Production rates increased in South Africa but was lower at Kryviy Rih (Ukraine) due to operational issues Steel shipments increased 5.2% to 3.3Mt from 3.1Mt in Q1 11 ASP increased 11.1% to $768/t from $691/t in Q1 11 AACIS profitability improved on back of strong pricing and improved volumes 30

32 Distribution Solutions (AMDS) AMDS - EBITDA (US$mn, LHS) and ASP (US$/t, RHS) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 AMDS Steel shipments (000t) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2' EBITDA decreased to $115m from $127m in Q1 11 and $187m in Q2 10 Steel shipments improved 9.3% to 4.6Mt from 4.2Mt in Q1 11 ASP increased 6.9% to $1040/t from $973/t in Q1 11 Q1 11 reported EBITDA includes $22m provision write back. Excluding provision impacts, underlying EBITDA/t of $25 in Q2 11 remained flat as compared to Q1 11 AMDS profitability remained essentially flat 31

33 Mining Mining EBITDA (US$mn) Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Iron Ore (million tonnes) Own Production Shipped at "Market price" Shipped at "Cost-plus" 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 EBITDA increased 37.6% to $835million, compared to $607million in Q111 Own iron ore production 13.1Mt increased 11.4% as compared to 11.8Mt in Q1 11 Total iron ore shipments increased 36.7% to 13.2Mt (vs. 9.6Mt in Q1 11) of which 7.0mt at market prices (vs. 5.9Mt in Q1 11) and 6.2Mt on cost-plus basis (vs. 3.7Mt in Q1 11) Own coal production increased 7.0% to 2.1Mt in Q2 11 from 1.9Mt in 1Q 11 Coal (million tonnes) Own Production Shipped at "Market price" Shipped at "Cost-plus" 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 Mining benefited from higher shipments and higher market prices Definitions: Market priced tonnes represent amounts of iron ore or other raw materials from ArcelorMittal mines that could be sold to third parties on the open market. Market priced tonnes that are not sold to third parties are transferred from the Mining segment to the Company s steel producing segments at the prevailing market price. Shipments of raw materials that do not constitute market price tonnes are transferred internally on a cost-plus basis. 32

34 Balance Sheet highlights OWC and rotation days* (USD billion) Net Debt (USD billion) & Net Debt/Average EBITDA** Ratio (x) x 2.0x Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 Working capital (USDbn) - LHS 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 Rotation day - RHS 71 days Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 Net Debt (USDbn) - LHS 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 ` 1Q 10 2Q 10 3Q 10 4Q 10 1Q 11 2Q 11 Net Debt / Average EBITDA - RHS 1.5x 1.0x 0.5x 0.0x Rotation days increased to 71 days during 2Q 11 from 66 days in 1Q 11 * Rotation days are defined as days of accounts receivable plus days of inventory minus days of accounts payable. Days of accounts payable and inventory are a function of cost of goods sold. Days of accounts receivable are a function of sales. ** Based on yearly average EBITDA since January 1,

35 Liquidity and debt maturity profile Debt structure June 30, 2011 Debt maturities (US$ billion) Unused credit line > 2015 Bonds Convertibles Long term debt facility Other Commercial Paper Cash & Equivalent Commercial paper 1.3 Short term & Others Liquidity at 30/6/11 Debt due in 2011 New 5 year $6 billion facility signed on 18 March 2011 EUR 12 billion acquisition financing final instalments prepaid Continued strong liquidity position and lengthening of debt maturities 34

36 Contacts Daniel Fairclough Global Head Investor Relations Hetal Patel UK/European Investor Relations Thomas A McCue US Investor Relations thomas.mccue@arcelormittal.com Lisa Fortuna US Investor Relations lisa.fortuna@arcelormittal.com Maureen Baker Fixed Income/Debt Investor Relations maureen.baker@arcelormittal.com Steve John SRI Relations steve.john@arcelormittal.com