OPTIMAL FINANCING MIX II: THE COST OF CAPITAL APPROACH. It is be8er to have a lower hurdle rate than a higher one.

Transcription

1 OPTIMAL FINANCING MIX II: THE COST OF CAPITAL APPROACH It is be8er to have a lower hurdle rate than a higher one.

2 Set Up and Objective 1: What is corporate finance 2: The Objective: Utopia and Let Down 3: The Objective: Reality and Reaction The Investment Decision Invest in assets that earn a return greater than the minimum acceptable hurdle rate The Financing Decision Find the right kind of debt for your firm and the right mix of debt and equity to fund your operations The Dividend Decision If you cannot find investments that make your minimum acceptable rate, return the cash to owners of your business Hurdle Rate 4. Define & Measure Risk 5. The Risk free Rate 6. Equity Risk Premiums 7. Country Risk Premiums 8. Regression Betas 9. Beta Fundamentals 10. Bottom-up Betas 11. The "Right" Beta 12. Debt: Measure & Cost 13. Financing Weights Investment Return 14. Earnings and Cash flows 15. Time Weighting Cash flows 16. Loose Ends Financing Mix 17. The Trade off 18. Cost of Capital Approach 19. Cost of Capital: Follow up 20. Cost of Capital: Wrap up 21. Alternative Approaches 22. Moving to the optimal Financing Type 23. The Right Financing Dividend Policy 24. Trends & Measures 25. The trade off 26. Assessment 27. Action & Follow up 28. The End Game Valuation 29. First steps 30. Cash flows 31. Growth 32. Terminal Value 33. To value per share 34. The value of control 35. Relative Valuation 36. Closing Thoughts

3 The Cost of Capital Approach Value of a Firm = Present Value of Cash Flows to the Firm, discounted back at the cost of capital. If the cash flows to the firm are held constant, and the cost of capital is minimized, the value of the firm will be maximized. 3

4 Applying Cost of Capital Approach: The Textbook Example Expected Cash flow to firm next year (Cost of capital - g) = 200(1.03) (Cost of capital - g) 4

5 The U- shaped Cost of Capital Graph 5

6 Current Cost of Capital: Disney The beta for Disney s stock in November 2013 was The T. bond rate at that Zme was 2.75%. Using an eszmated equity risk premium of 5.76%, we eszmated the cost of equity for Disney to be 8.52%: Cost of Equity = 2.75% (5.76%) = 8.52% Disney s bond razng in May 2009 was A, and based on this razng, the eszmated pretax cost of debt for Disney is 3.75%. Using a marginal tax rate of 36.1, the aeer- tax cost of debt for Disney is 2.40%. Aeer- Tax Cost of Debt = 3.75% ( ) = 2.40% The cost of capital was calculated using these costs and the weights based on market values of equity (121,878) and debt (15.961): Cost of capital = 6

7 Mechanics of Cost of Capital EsZmaZon 1. EsZmate the Cost of Equity at different levels of debt: Equity will become riskier - > Beta will increase - > Cost of Equity will increase. EsZmaZon will use levered beta calculazon 2. EsZmate the Cost of Debt at different levels of debt: Default risk will go up and bond razngs will go down as debt goes up - > Cost of Debt will increase. To eszmazng bond razngs, we will use the interest coverage razo (EBIT/Interest expense) 3. EsZmate the Cost of Capital at different levels of debt 4. Calculate the effect on Firm Value and Stock Price. 7

8 Laying the groundwork: 1. EsZmate the unlevered beta for the firm One approach is to use the regression beta (1.25) and then unlever, using the average debt to equity razo (19.44%) during the period of the. Unlevered beta = = 1.25 / (1 + ( )(0.1944))= AlternaZvely, we can back to the source and eszmate it from the betas of the businesses. Business Revenues EV/Sales Value of Business Propor5on of Disney Unlevered beta Value Propor5on Media Networks $20, $66, % 1.03 $66, % Parks & Resorts $14, $45, % 0.70 $45, % Studio Entertainment $5, $18, % 1.10 $18, % Consumer Products $3, $2, % 0.68 $2, % InteracZve $1, $1, % 1.22 $1, % Disney $135,132.1 Opera,ons $45,041 $135, % % 8

9 2. Get Disney s current financials 9

10 I. Cost of Equity Levered Beta = (1 + (1-.361) (D/E)) Cost of equity = 2.75% + Levered beta * 5.76% 10

11 EsZmaZng Cost of Debt Start with the market value of the firm = = 121,878 + $15,961 = $137,839 million D/(D+E) 0.00% 10.00% Debt to capital D/E 0.00% 11.11% D/E = 10/90 =.1111 $ Debt $0 $13,784 10% of $137,839 EBITDA $12,517 $12,517 Same as 0% debt DepreciaZon $ 2,485 $ 2,485 Same as 0% debt EBIT $10,032 $10,032 Same as 0% debt Interest $0 $434 Pre- tax cost of debt * $ Debt Pre- tax Int. cov EBIT/ Interest Expenses Likely RaZng AAA AAA From RaZngs table Pre- tax cost of debt 3.15% 3.15% Riskless Rate + Spread 11

12 The RaZngs Table Interest coverage ratio is Rating is Spread is Interest rate > 8.50 Aaa/AAA 0.40% 3.15% Aa2/AA 0.70% 3.45% A1/A+ 0.85% 3.60% A2/A 1.00% 3.75% A3/A- 1.30% 4.05% Baa2/BBB 2.00% 4.75% Ba1/BB+ 3.00% 5.75% Ba2/BB 4.00% 6.75% B1/B+ 5.50% 8.25% B2/B 6.50% 9.25% B3/B- 7.25% 10.00% Caa/CCC 8.75% 11.50% Ca2/CC 9.50% 12.25% C2/C 10.50% 13.25% <0.2 D2/D 12.00% 14.75% T.Bond rate =2.75% 12

13 A Test: Can you do the 30% level? Iteration 1 rate) Iteration 2 rate) D/(D + E) 20.00% 30.00% 30.00% D/E 25.00% 30/70=42.86% $ Debt $27,568 $41,352 EBITDA $12,517 $12,517 Depreciation $2,485 $2,485 EBIT $10,032 $10,032 Interest expense $868 $1,302 $1,427 Interest coverage ratio Likely rating AAA AA AA Pretax cost of debt 3.15% 3.45% 3.45% 13

14 Bond RaZngs, Cost of Debt and Debt RaZos 14

15 Stated versus EffecZve Tax Rates You need taxable income for interest to provide a tax savings. Note that the EBIT at Disney is $10,032 million. As long as interest expenses are less than $10,032 million, interest expenses remain fully tax- deduczble and earn the 36.1% tax benefit. At an 60% debt razo, the interest expenses are $9,511 million and the tax benefit is therefore 36.1% of this amount. At a 70% debt razo, however, the interest expenses balloon to $11,096 million, which is greater than the EBIT of $10,032 million. We consider the tax benefit on the interest expenses up to this amount: Maximum Tax Benefit = EBIT * Marginal Tax Rate = $10,032 million * = $ 3,622 million Adjusted Marginal Tax Rate = Maximum Tax Benefit/Interest Expenses = $3,622/$11,096 = 32.64% 15

16 Disney s cost of capital schedule 16

17 Disney: Cost of Capital Chart! 17

18 Disney: Cost of Capital Chart:

19 Task Use the cost of capital approach to eszmate the opzmal financing mix for your company Read Chapter 8 19