Safe Harbor Statement
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1 Kansas City Southern Third Quarter 2014 Earnings Presentation October 17, 2014 Safe Harbor Statement This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws concerning potential future events involving KCS and its subsidiaries, which could materially differ from the events that actually occur. Words such as projects, estimates, forecasts, believes, intends, expects, anticipates, and similar expressions are intended to identify many of these forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to management and management s perception thereof as of the date of this presentation. Differences that actually occur could be caused by a number of external factors over which management has little or no control, including: competition and consolidation within the transportation industry; the business environment in industries that produce and use items shipped by rail; loss of the rail concession of KCS subsidiary, Kansas City Southern de México, S.A. de C.V.; the termination of, or failure to renew, agreements with customers, other railroads and third parties; interest rates; access to capital; disruptions to KCS technology infrastructure, including its computer systems; natural events such as severe weather, hurricanes and floods; market and regulatory responses to climate change; credit risk of customers and counterparties and their failure to meet their financial obligations; legislative and regulatory developments and disputes; rail accidents or other incidents or accidents on KCS rail network or at KCS facilities or customer facilities involving the release of hazardous materials, including toxic inhalation hazards; fluctuation in prices or availability of key materials, in particular diesel fuel; dependency on certain key suppliers of core rail equipment; changes in securities and capital markets; loss of key personnel; labor difficulties, including strikes and work stoppages; insufficiency of insurance to cover lost revenue, profits or other damages; acts of terrorism or risk of terrorist activities; war or risk of war; domestic and international economic conditions; political and economic conditions in Mexico and the level of trade between the United States and Mexico; the outcome of claims and litigation involving KCS or its subsidiaries; and other factors affecting the operation of the business. More detailed information about factors that could affect future events may be found in filings by KCS with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including KCS Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 (File No ) and subsequent reports. Forward-looking statements are not, and should not be relied upon as, a guarantee of future performance or results, nor will they necessarily prove to be accurate indications of the times at or by which any such performance or results will be achieved. As a result, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forwardlooking statements. KCS is not obligated to update any forward-looking statements in this presentation to reflect future events or developments. All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website, kcsouthern.com/investors. 2 1
2 Opening Comments - Dave Starling 3 Today s Presenters Dave Starling Jeff Songer Pat Ottensmeyer Mike Upchurch José Zozaya President & CEO SVP Engineering & Chief Transportation Officer EVP Sales & Marketing EVP & CFO President and Executive Representative of KCSM 4 2
3 KCS Third Quarter Overview Revenue up 9% Revenue from strategic growth areas up 19% Strong operating performance 1.7 point operating ratio improvement over Q3 13 Adjusted diluted EPS* up 17% * All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website in the Investors section. 5 Update for Q Updated 2014 Guidance YTD 2014 Mid-single digit volume growth YTD volume growth of 5% High-single digit revenue growth* Adjusted operating ratio improvement of ~1.5 points High-teens adjusted diluted EPS growth YTD revenue growth of 10% YTD revenue growth excluding grain of 7% YTD adjusted operating ratio** improved 1.8 points YTD adjusted diluted EPS** growth of 21% * Depending on F/X impact. ** All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website in the Investors section. 6 3
4 Jeff Songer 7 Operations Productivity Continues to Improve 8 4
5 System Velocity System Dwell Operating Metrics Sustained in Q3 Train Velocity (mph) Dwell* (hrs) Carloads (in thousands) Carloads (in thousands) KCS Class 1s (no KCS) KCS Carloads KCS Class 1s (no KCS) KCS Carloads Source: AAR, KCS Research * See definitions in the appendix to this presentation. 9 KCS Investing for Growth, Asset Utilization, Safety, and Service 2014 Capex as % of Total Capex 3% 4% 41% 52% Investing in growth Staying a step ahead of growth Yard & terminal expansions Artesia, Jackson, Kansas City, Kendleton, Laredo, Monterrey, Sanchez, San Luis Potosi, Wylie Mainline Sidings (8 in 14) - extensions & new construction CTC Laredo subdivision Locomotives & Rolling stock Investing in core maintenance Operating efficiencies & safety Asset availability & reliability Velocity performance leads industry Monterrey to Nuevo Laredo track improvements Maintenance Regulatory Growth / Locomotives IT / Other Investing in asset utilization & productivity Inventory management tools to improve terminals & shops Technologies to improve asset performance 10 5
6 Pat Ottensmeyer 11 Third Quarter Revenue Summary Q vs. Q Q Q Variance Reported Revenues (in millions) $677.5 $ % Carloads (in thousands) % 28% 22% 2% 7% 5% 7% 6% 13% 5% 3% 8% 6% 5% 11% 5% Carloads RPU Revenue -2% -3% -4% Chemical & Petroleum Industrial & Consumer Agriculture & Minerals Energy Intermodal Automotive 12 6
7 % of Revenue % of Revenue Cross-Border * Revenue Increased 14% Q vs. Q $ % Revenue (in millions) $160 $140 $120 $100 $ % 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% $60 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q (D) Cross-Border Revenue % Total Revenue 0.0% * See definitions in the appendix to this presentation. 13 Strategic Growth Areas Grew by 19% Q vs. Q $ % Revenue (in millions) $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $- Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Automotive Lázaro Cárdenas Cross-Border Intermodal Frac Sand Crude Oil % Total Revenue 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14 7
8 Market Outlook Update Freight Revenue Assumes constant F/X Chemical & Petroleum Industrial & Consumer Agriculture & Minerals Previous Outlook Updated FY 2014 Outlook Energy Intermodal Automotive + Single digit revenue growth expected during period. ++ Double digit revenue growth expected during period. 15 Sales & Marketing Summary Economic outlook for 2014 and 2015 continues to be positive in both U.S. and Mexico 2014 GDP Forecast: 2.1% for the U.S. and 2.4% for Mexico 2015 GDP Forecast: 2.8% for the U.S. and 3.7% for Mexico Grain is expected to be down versus Q Utility coal is expected to be up versus Q4 2013, due to the replenishment of inventories Strategic growth areas continue significant contribution to growth Lázaro Cárdenas growth has strengthened and long term outlook is strong Crude oil outlook solidified as a result of terminals opening in KCS service area Recent spread compression is a short term concern but we believe longer term fundamentals are strong Long term new business pipeline continues to be strong Source: U.S. Federal Reserve, Banco de México 16 8
9 Mike Upchurch 17 Third Quarter Results Q Q Variance Carloads/Units (in thousands) % Reported Revenues (in millions) $677.5 $ % Reported Operating Ratio 66.1% 67.8% (1.7) points Reported Diluted Earnings per Share Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share * $1.25 $ % $1.29 $ % * All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website in the Investors section. 18 9
10 Operating Expenses Increased 6% Year over Year $ in millions Total Operating Expenses $ in millions Comp & Benefits Purchased Services $64.2 $57.2 $125.2 $111.4 Q Expense $421 Volume-Based Expenses 13 Incentives 4 Lease Conversions (net of depreciation) (4) Fuel $109.2 $102.7 Depreciation due to Larger Asset Base Wage Inflation 4 4 Equipment Costs $28.4 $39.5 Track Maintenance 3 Other 3 D&A $65.0 $57.2 Q Expense $448 Materials & Other $56.1 $53.3 Q314 Q Compensation & Benefits Expense Increases, Primarily Due to Volume Increase, Inflation and Incentives Quarterly Average Employee Headcount Headcount is up 3% 6,217 6,403 Compensation & Benefits $ in millions Q Expense $111 Volume-Based Compensation Wage Inflation 4 Incentives 4 Other 1 5 Q Expense $
11 Purchased Services Expense Increases due to Track Maintenance Purchased Services Purchased Services $ in millions Q Expense $57 Track Maintenance 3 $57 $64 Volume-Based Expenses 2 Other 2 Q Expense $64 $ in millions 21 Fuel Expense Increase Due to Higher Consumption and Price Locomotive Fuel Price ($ per gallon) Fuel Expense $ in millions Q Expense $103 Fuel Consumption 6 $3.06 $3.10 Price 2 F/X (1) Efficiency (1) Q Expense $
12 Continued Benefit from Lease Conversions $ in millions Equipment Costs $40 $28 Depreciation and Amortization $57 $65 Equipment Costs Depreciation and Amortization $ in millions Q Expense $40 Lease Conversions (8) Car Hire (3) Other (1) Q Expense $28 $ in millions Q Expense $57 Larger Asset Base 4 Lease Conversions 4 Q Expense $65 $4 million net lease benefit 23 Capital Structure Priorities Invest in Business Committed to superior growth profile 2014 Capex 28% of revenue Shareholder Returns Increased the quarterly dividend by 30% in Q Q3 cash dividend declared on August 5, 2014; paid October 8, 2014 Quarterly payout of $0.28 per share or $30.9 million Annualized payout of $1.12 per share or $123.6 million Optimize Capital Structure Continue lease conversions $4 million net operating income benefit in Q Percentage of owned equipment increased from 31% at 12/31/13 to 51% at 9/30/
13 Closing Comments Dave Starling 25 Appendix Dwell is defined as the average time a car resides at the specified terminal location. Cross-border is defined as traffic that moves on Kansas City Southern both north and south of the U.S. / Mexico border. Traffic interchanged with a competing railroad at the border is not considered cross border
14 Condensed Income Statement Q3 ($ in millions, except EPS Diluted) Q Q Revenues $677.5 $621.6 Operating Expenses Operating Income Equity Earnings Interest Expense (17.9) (18.3) Foreign Exchange Loss (12.5) (1.4) Debt Retirement Costs & Other (0.4) (3.1) Pre-tax Income Income Tax Expense (65.2) (63.3) Net Income $138.4 $119.0 Reported EPS Diluted $1.25 $1.07 Adjusted EPS Diluted* $1.29 $1.10 Average Diluted Share Count (in thousands) 110, ,373 * All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website in the Investors section. 27 Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share Q vs. Q Earnings per Share - Q Earnings per Share - Q Reported $1.25 $1.07 Debt Retirement Costs F/X Loss F/X Component of Income Taxes (0.03) -- Adjusted $1.29 $1.10 All reconciliations to GAAP can be found on the KCS website in the Investors section
15 Third Quarter Effective Tax Rate Reconciliation Q Effective Tax Rate (3.4%) 1.3% 0.9% (1.8%) 35.0% 32.0% Statutory Rate Lower Foreign Tax Rate State Taxes Other Foreign Exchange Q314 ETR F/X Rates MXN/USD Y/E Q3 14 Projected Y/E FX Rate 13.5 Q Effective Tax Rate 9/30/2014 Spot F/X Rate 13.5 (3.1%) 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% Expected 2014 ETR w/o FX 33%-34% 35.0% 34.7% Statutory Rate Lower Foreign Tax Rate State Taxes Other Foreign Exchange Q313 ETR 29 Hedge and F/X Tax Impact $ in millions Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 YTD Projected Y/E 2014 F/X Impact on Income Tax - Benefit (Expense) F/X Gain (Loss) on MX Peso Exposure Unhedged F/X Income Statement Impact $1.2 $(0.8) $5.5 $5.9 $8.0 (0.2) 0.1 (2.9) (3.0) (3.5) 1.0 (0.7) F/X Hedge Gain (Loss) (7.0) (1.0) (1.0) Total F/X Income Statement Impact $3.2 $3.1 $(4.4) $1.9 $3.5 Note: The above is net of tax at the 30% statutory Mexico tax rate
16 Cross-Border Intermodal and Lázaro Cárdenas Volumes and Revenues Cross-Border * Intermodal Volumes Cross-Border * Intermodal Revenues ($ in thousands) 22, % 25,200 $20, % $23,400 Lázaro Cárdenas Volumes 64,300 56,200 Lázaro Cárdenas Revenues ($ in thousands) +14% $22, % $27,000 * See definitions in the appendix to this presentation
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