Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Global Transportation Conference
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1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2014 Global Transportation Conference Rob Knight, CFO May 8, Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation s expectations with respect to economic conditions and improvement, business opportunities, and its ability to improve financial performance and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation s and its subsidiaries business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation s and its subsidiaries future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2013, which was filed with the SEC on February 7, The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein. 2
2 Record Start to 2014 Positives First Quarter Records Operating Revenue Operating Income Operating Ratio Earnings Franchise Diversity Challenges Weather Conditions Earnings Per Share (First Quarter) $1.79 $ % $ st Qtr Record Operating Ratio (%) (First Quarter) pts st Qtr Record First Quarter 2014 Recap Agricultural Products Industrial Products Coal Volume Growth +7% +9% +13% Freight Revenue Mix Industrial 19% Coal 18% Intermodal 20% Agricultural 17% Autos 9% Chemicals 17% Intermodal Automotive Chemicals TOTAL +3% +2% Flat +5% Freight Revenue Performance (Year-Over-Year Change) +1% +5% +6% ARC Volume Freight Revenue 4
3 Network Performance Winter Weather Impact & Recovery Efforts UP Velocity (As reported to the AAR, in mph) Good Good 26.4 UP Terminal Dwell (As reported to the AAR, in hours) Q12 1Q13 1Q Q12 1Q13 1Q Weekly Trend 2014 Weekly Trend % Increase Northern Region Train Delay Hours Increase vs. Week Ending Jan. 1, % 200% 100% 0% Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Agility & Resource Readiness Leverage UP Franchise Adjust transportation plans Leverage fluid routes and terminals Resource agility & surge capacity Maximize windows of opportunity YTD Volume Drivers Day Monthly Carloadings (000s) 2014 YTD up 6%* YTD Volume Growth* (vs 2013) Agricultural Products Industrial Products Coal Intermodal Automotive +6% +6% +4% +10% +14% 140 January December Chemicals TOTAL -1% +6% *Through May 6,
4 Agricultural Trends 2013 Volume Mix Grain Products 35% Food & Refrigerated 26% Grain (Year-over-Year Volume Change) Domestic* Export* 93% 73% Grain 39% 1% 0% 15% 9,000 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 AAR Weekly Grain Carloads (UNP) 2014* *Through May 3, %-20% -17% -14% -34% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 *Excludes equipment shipments. Ag Domestic & International 2013 Volume Mix Domestic Ag 71% Export Grain 15% Meals & Oils, 5% Import Beer, 4% Feed & Animal Protein, 2% Frozen Meat & Poultry, 1% Other Int l, 2% 7 Coal Trends 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25, * Volume Trends (Weekly Carloadings) 1Q Other 13% Demand from Cold Weather Low Coal Inventories Legacy Contract Loss Exports *Through May 3, 2014 Southern Powder River Basin 74% 2Q WY Blizzard 3Q Q 11,388 Electricity Generation* Total U.S. Electrical Generation (thousand megawatt hrs/day) -3% 11, % Thru Week 17 *U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Edison Electric Institute Electricity Generation Market Share* 50% 50% 48% 48% % from coal 47% 17% 20% 19% 21% 20% Apr 12: 32% 38% % from natural gas 40% 27% 25% *U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) through March % 24% 8
5 Shale-Related Volumes Shale-Related Volumes (000s) 1Q 2014 Vol % Inc Frac Sand* Crude Oil Pipe Brl $ $120 $110 $100 Crude Oil Prices Brent LLS WTI ~4.5% of Total Volumes $90 Quarterly Shale Carloads (000s) Pipe Crude Oil Frac Sand* Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q *Includes barites $80 Jan 2013 Aug 2013 May 2014* Additional pipeline capacity impacting short-haul Texas & Oklahoma shipments Spread differentials displace Gulf Coast shipments to East Coast *Through May 6, Housing Trends Housing represents ~ 8-9% of current UP volumes Lumber, Stone & Glass down 2,500 carloads a week Housing also drives appliances, roofing, rebar, aggregates, and cement demand Including IP, Chemicals & Intermodal, return to normal could add volume growth opportunity of 4-5% UP Wkly Carloadings 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Lumber, Stone & Glass 2014 YTD* Lumber up 5% 2013 FY Lumber up 10% Housing Starts (mils) *Through May 3, 2014 Apr 2014 IHS Global Insight forecast 10
6 Expanding Chemical Franchise Texas/Louisiana Investments Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. $5 Billion investment in cracker & additional capacity projects. Ft. Worth Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year Estimated completion in 2017 Dallas Investment Announcements Total Over $10 Billion Shreveport Formosa Plastics Corp. >$1.7 Billion investment in cracker San and additional capacity projects. Antonio Cracker capacity: 800,000 mt/year Estimated completion in 2017 Gruppo Mossi & Ghisolfi Investment in new PET & PTA plants. Capacity: 1.0 & 1.2 million mt/year Estimated completion in 2016 Existing Plants New Plant/Expansions Houston Brownsville New Orleans Exxon Mobil Corp. Investment in steam cracker. Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year Estimated completion in 2016 Dow Chemical Co. $1.7 Billion investment in cracker and additional capacity projects. Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year Estimated completion in 2017 Source: Public Announcements 11 Highway Conversions Comprehensive Network Significant Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico Strong Value Proposition Competitive Service at an Affordable Price Environmental Friendliness Truck s Traditional Advantage is Eroding Regulations & Rising Costs Highway Congestion & Infrastructure Flat 8% Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth) Domestic International 3% -8% 4% -5% 5% 8% -1% -1% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Domestic Volume Growth (Units in 000 s) 1,159 1, % 1,452 1,475 1,526 1,
7 Investments Support Intermodal Growth Santa Teresa, NM Supports Sunset Route from LA to El Paso Close proximity to Maquiladoras in Northern Mexico Strategic focal point for freight moving across the U.S. and the border 13 UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments Foreign and Domestic 708 Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands) % +5% % '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 ' Business Mix (In Carloads) UP Interchange Points Ports Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR) New Industrial Investment Agricultural 12% Industrial 11% Autos 47% Intermodal 23% Chemicals 6% Coal 1% 14
8 Strengthening the Franchise Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC Safe and Resilient Infrastructure ~$3.9B 2014 Capital Plan* (in Millions) Continued Capacity Spending Southern Region Network Strategies ~ 200 New Locomotives Equipment Purchases Increased PTC Spending Capital Spend of 16% - 17% of Revenue for PTC $450 Capacity/ Commercial Facilities $680 Technology/ Other $200 Infrastructure Replacement $1,725 Locomotives/ Equipment $845 * Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital. 15 Strong Financial Position Three Month Period Ending March 31 ($ In Millions) $1,524 $1,767 Cash from Ops Free Cash Flow* ($800) ($905) Investing ($323) ($363) $12,804 Total Debt* (Adjusted) $13, % 38.4% 12/31/2013 3/31/2014 Adjusted Debt to Capital Dividends Solid Cash from Operations Increase in Capital Investment 32% Increase in Declared Dividends to $0.91 per Share Strong Balance Sheet Investment Grade Credit Rating $1 Billion Debt Issuance in Jan Year-End Targets: ~40% Adj. Debt-to-Cap ~1.5x Adj. Debt / Adj. EBITDA * See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP. 16
9 Delivering Value to Shareholders Q 2007 Declared Dividend Per Share (cents) x 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q Cumulative Share Repurchases 69 ($ In Billions) 79 $9.3 $ Dividends: Declared Dividend increase in 3Q13 & 1Q14 Dividend Payout Target Range of 30% to 35% on a declared basis Achieved Payout Ratio of 31.5% in 2013 Share Repurchases: Continue Opportunistic Buying Approach New 4-year Share Repurchase, 60M shrs (effective January 1, 2014) Future Allocation $7.1 $3.0 $3.0 $4.2 $5.7 $ Q Outlook Agricultural Products + Strong Exports? Weather / 2014 Crop? California Drought Automotive + Auto Sales Recovery Continues Chemicals + Most Markets Remain Solid - Crude Oil Spreads Coal + Low Coal Inventories? Weather Industrial Products + Shale Drilling - Frac Sand + Housing & Construction Intermodal + Domestic Highway Conversions + International 18
10 Question & Answer Session Rob Knight, CFO May 8,
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