Finansanalytikerforeningens Virksomhedsdag 2008 Presentation of NKT Group June 3, 2008 v/ CFO Michael Lyng

Transcription

1 Finansanalytikerforeningens Virksomhedsdag 2008 Presentation of NKT Group June 3, 2008 v/ CFO Michael Lyng 1

2 116 years history of innovation and entrepreneurship From growth oriented industrial conglomerate to focused global industrial group 80 s Diversification 1990 > 30 businesses > 75% employed in DK > 70% of revenue in DK ,8 bndkk in revenue ~8.750 employees Market value 10,4 bndkk 4 businesses <15% employed in DK (China:17% / East EU:25%) <5% of revenue in DK 2

3 Group structure June 2008 Europe North America Oceania Northern Europe Central Europe Eastern Europe Crystal Fibre KOHERAS LIOS Technology Ownership: NKT: 51% Acergy: 49% Asia China Vytran 3

4 Historical performance mdkk Operating EBITDA LTM EBITDA%LTM % Q12003 Q2Q3Q4 Q1Q2Q3Q Q1Q2Q3Q Q1Q2Q3Q Q1Q2Q3Q Q1 4

5 The NKT share NKT Holding A/S Share price OMX C Turnover in the NKT share mdkk 20 days avg. turnover 60 days avg. turnover One share class > registered shareholders 100% free float No voting restrictions IR work has high priority Approx. 15 Danish analysts follow the share ~ 15% of share capital registered outside Denmark ~ 27% of share capital has not registered Non registered shareholders: 27% Other registered shareholders < 1 mdkk: 31% ATP: 10% Danish institutional investors > 1mDKK: 16% Foreign institutional investors > 1mDKK: 13% BoD / Management: 3% Part of OMXC20 from 2008 A new 5% shareholder: Credit Suisse 5

6 Financial results Q vs. Q Organic growth 4% mdkk Q Q Change Consensus Revenue % EBITDA % 310 Depreciation EBIT % 224 EBIT-margin 6,7% 6,1% 14,8% 6,6% Gain on disposals Financial items Result before tax % 187 Tax Net result % 145 *) *) Based on estimates from 8 analysts. Data collected May

7 Expectations 2008 Realised Expectations Revised May 2007 March 2008 Expectations 2008 mdkk (of around) (of around) Revenue Revenue, std Organic growth, std. 15% 8% 8% EBIT-margin, std. 10,3% 9,5% 9,5% Revenue Organic growth 7% 5% 5% EBIT-margin 8,5% 8,5% 8,5% Revenue Organic growth 19% 30% 30% EBIT EBITDA-margin 21,8% 23,0% 25,0% Net result (51%) Revenue Organic growth 11% 7% 7% Profit before tax

8 Information 8

9 NKT Strategy BUILDING POWER

10 Strategy Building Power % 12% 11% Organic revenue growth - average 10% 8,7% 10,0% 12,6% EBITDA-margin 13-14% 6,1% 7,9% 10,2% EBITA-margin 11-12% 7,0% Net result % of revenue 8% Capital structure 52% - Gearing (NIBD/EK) <100% 1,2x - NIBD/EBITDA < 2,5x 36% - Solvency ratio >30% 14,4% 18,7% 22% RoCE >20% Note: All ratios are based on revenue in NKT Cables measured at standard metal basis (Copper: EUR/ton ; Aluminum: EUR/ton) 10

11 Financial leverage Investment in CAPEX for the period up towards 3 bndkk Dividend policy intends to distribute 1/3 of annual net result to shareholders It is the ambition to supplement the organic development with selected acquisitions Projected organic development points to room for acquisitions up towards 7 bndkk over the coming 5 years within current capital structure 11

12 Products NKT Cables 12

13 Moderators spørgsmål... Muligheder og konkurrencesituation i Østeuropa High voltage kabler oplever fortsat høj efterspørgsel hvor meget er drevet af vindmøllevæksten og hvor meget er replacement Forhindringer / muligheder for at sælge low voltage kabler på de enkelte europæiske markeder 13

14 NKT Cables Group SALES BY PRODUCTS SALES BY CUSTOMERS SALES BY MARKETS Automotive wires 3% Other,incl.special cables for industry 6% Catenary wires and OPGW 12% High and medium voltage cables, accesso ries and installation services 34% Low voltage cables 45% Industry 20% Wholesalers 41% Utilities 39% Other 20% Asia 8% Eastern Europe 28% Denmark 13% Germany 24% UK 7% 14

15 Product Scope for Sea Cables Cluster cables Complete scope of three core cables (Offshore)* Medium voltage wind farm connections Single core cables up to m (36 kv) ( Offshore)* Three core cables up to m (36 kv) (Offshore )* High voltage wind farm connections Single core cables up to m (145 kv) ( Offshore)* High voltage wind connections (Onshore) Three core cables (170 kv) Single core cables (420 kv) Accessories Appropriate accessories are available for all the cables mentioned (On and Offshore) Optic based monitoring with Fibre Real Time Thermal Rating system (RTTR) NKT own System for cables systems (On and Offshore) All cable types are available with integrated optical fibres ( On and Offshore) From 2009 onwards longer cables lengths will be available 15

16 NKT Cables - sales split in GDP growth segments GDP growth % China Poland Czech Rep. Austria UK Germany France Denmark 11,4% 6,5% 6,5% 3,4% 3,1% 2,5% 1,9% 1,8% 35% 35% Source: IMF 15% Below 2% Between 2% og 3% Between 3% og 5% Above 5% 16

17 Trends - NKT Cables Organic growth (Y/Y) - Quarterly % 12% 7% 12% 32%12%13% 19% 19% 21% 12% 7% 4% - Annually 9% 18% 15% E08 8% EBITDA (mdkk) ,9% 23 5,7% 62 5,9% 79 6,9% 78 7,2% 62 7,2% 98 7,4% ,9% 10,5% 106 6,9% 10,8% 195 7,7% 12,1% 187 8,0% 12,5% 161 8,5% 13,3% 123 8,5% 13,4% 15,0% 14,0% 13,0% 12,0% 11,0% 10,0% 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% Q1-05 Q2-05 Q3-05 Q4-05 Q1-06 Q2-06 Q3-06 EBITDA% (LTM) Q4-06 Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Peer realised 6% growth in Q EBITDA market prices EBITDA standard prices 17

18 EVA / RoCE NKT Cables mdkk ,0% ,0% 25,0% 23,0% ,9% 21,9% 21,0% 19,0% 17,0% 0 15,0% mdkk jan-05 feb-05 mar-05 apr-05 maj-05 jun-05 jul-05 aug-05 sep-05 okt-05 nov-05 dec-05 jan-06 feb-06 mar-06 apr-06 maj-06 jun-06 jul-06 aug-06 sep-06 okt-06 nov-06 dec-06 jan-07 feb-07 mar-07 apr-07 maj-07 jun-07 jul-07 aug-07 sep-07 okt-07 nov-07 dec-07 jan-05 feb-05 mar-05 apr-05 maj-05 jun-05 jul-05 aug-05 sep-05 okt-05 nov-05 dec-05 jan-06 feb-06 mar-06 apr-06 maj-06 jun-06 jul-06 aug-06 sep-06 okt-06 nov-06 dec-06 jan-07 feb-07 mar-07 apr-07 maj-07 jun-07 jul-07 aug-07 sep-07 okt-07 nov-07 dec-07 EVA (mdkk - LTM) RoCE% (LTM) Working Capital Other 18

19 NKT Cables Group Strategic targets Average organic growth: 12% p.a. EBITA-margin expansion from ~10% to 11-12% RoCE: minimum 20% p.a. Strategic measures Customer understanding Product development Develop the market Efficient production and logistics Organization and leadership Strategic highlights Focus on all Europe Strong emphasis on organic growth (products, capacity, markets) Higher priority to the trolley wire segment (Railway) Decision on the automotive segment expected in

20 Products Nilfisk-Advance 20

21 Moderators spørgsmål... Cyklisk eksponering på de enkelte delsegmenter / markeder Konsolideringsmuligheder i industrien Har de seneste måneders kursfald og svækkelse af makroøkonomien betydning for timing af opkøb 21

22 Nilfisk-Advance Group SALES BY PRODUCTS Other 10% After-sales market 7% High pressure cleane r s 18% SALES BY CUSTOMERS Vacuum cleane r s 27% Floor care equipment 38% The domestic market 9% SALES BY MARKETS The commercial market 60% Rest of world 10% Europe 67% USA 23% The industrial market 31% 22

23 Trends Nilfisk-Advance % 9% 8% 7% 10% 3% 5% 9% 7% 7% 8% 7% 5% 8% 11,0% 10,2% 10,1% 9,7% 9,6% 9,4% 9,1% 9,1% 9,1% 8,9% E08 5% 11,5% 11,0% 10,5% 10,0% 9,5% 174 Q Q1-07 Q Q Q3-06 Q Q Q1-06 Q Q4-05 7,5% 7,0% Q3-05 8,0% Q2-05 9,0% 8,5% ,6% 90 Q1-05 EBITDA (mdkk) % 7% ,0% Annually 2007 EBITDA% (LTM) ,2% Organic growth (Y/Y) Quarterly Peer realised 2% growth in Q

24 Organic growth - Nilfisk-Advance per segment Organic Growth in % Total USA Europe RoW 2006 Full year N-A 7% 3% 8% 7% Q Full year N-A 8% 7% 8% 4% 9% 8% -1% 5% Q % -5% 7% 5% - Floor Care - Specialities 2% -33% 2008 Full year N-A 4% -5% 7% 5% Q full year Peer 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 17% 17% RoW = Rest of World 24

25 Nilfisk-Advance - Sales Floor Care in US Sales development Floor Care ,5% 4,0% ,5% kusd 3,0% ,5% 2,0% Floor Care LTM Growth 1,5% ,0% Årsrapport ,5% apr-08 0,0% jan-08 okt-07 jul-07 apr-07 jan okt Sales development in the Floor Care segment has been picking up and is now on an acceptable level - given the uncertainty in the overall economy 25

26 Nilfisk-Advance - Sales speciality in US Sales development specialities ,0% ,0% ,0% kusd ,0% ,0% Specialities LTM Growth ,0% Årsrapport ,0% -30,0% apr-08 jan-08 okt-07 jul-07 apr-07 jan-07 0 okt Sales development in the speciality segment has been very negative the last 6 months reflecting the slowdown in the building industry and change in the consumer behavior 26

27 Working Capital dec-07 nov-07 dec-07 nov-07 okt okt-07 sep -07 au g-07 jul-07 jun -07 maj-07 ap r-07 16,8% sep-07 aug-07 jul-07 jun-07 maj-07 apr mar-07 mdkk mar-07 feb-07 jan-07 dec-06 nov-06 okt-06 sep -06 au g-06 jul-06 jun -06 maj-06 ap r-06 mar-06 feb-06 jan-06 dec-05 nov-05 okt-05 sep -05 au g-05 jul-05 jun -05 maj-05 ap r-05 mar-05 feb-05 jan feb-07 jan-07 dec-06 nov-06 okt-06 EVA (mdkk - LTM) sep-06 aug-06 jul-06 jun-06 maj-06 apr mar-06 mdkk feb-06 jan-06 dec-05 nov-05 okt-05 sep-05 aug-05 jul-05 jun-05 maj-05 apr-05 mar-05 feb-05 jan-05 EVA / RoCE Nilfisk-Advance ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% 80 17,0% 20,1% 16,0% 40 15,0% 14,0% 20 13,0% 0 12,0% RoCE% (LTM) Other 27

28 Nilfisk-Advance - sales split in GDP growth segments 7% 23% GDP growth 2007 China 11,4% Singapore 7,7% Australia 3,9% Spain 3,8% UK 3,1% Germany 2,5% USA 2,2% Denmark 1,8% 21% 49% Source: IMF Below 2% Between 3% og 5% Between 2% og 3% Above 5% 28

29 Nilfisk-Advance Strategic targets Average organic growth: 6% p.a. EBITA-margin expansion from <9% to 10-11% RoCE: minimum 20% p.a. Strategic measures Customer understanding Product development Develop the market Efficient production and logistics Organization and leadership Strategic highlights Stronger emphasis on emerging markets Numerous structural measurers to be taken are identified Ambition to be the global market leader in its industry 29

30 Nilfisk-Advance ESTIMATED GLOBAL MARKET (8,2 bnusd) Standard of living (Income per capita in purchasing power parity) 30

31 Products NKT Flexibles 31

32 Products - NKT Flexibles NKT Holding Acergy 51% 49% NKT Flexibles ~400 employees Risers Jumpers Flow Lines 32

33 NKT Flexibles OIL PRICE DEVELOPMENT PRODUCTION CAPACITY INVESTMENT REQUIREMENT (SURF) 33

34 Trends - NKT Flexibles mdkk % % % 25% % % % Revenue (LTM) EBITDA (LTM) EBITDA% (LTM) mar-08 feb-08 jan-08 dec-07 nov-07 okt-07 sep-07 aug-07 jul-07 jun-07 maj-07 apr-07 mar-07 feb-07 jan-07 dec-06 nov-06 okt-06 sep-06 aug-06 jul-06 jun-06 maj-06 0 apr-06 0% mar feb-06 5% jan % WC% (LTM) Order backlog as per May 1, 2008 amounts to 1,2 bn. DKK plus 1,7 bn. DKK in LOI s and frame agreements 2008: 100% booked Low risk on being able to fill out the new capacity coming from the 65% capacity expansion ready in Q

35 NKT Flexibles Strategic targets Average organic growth: TBD depending on capacity EBITA-margin maintained at ~20% Strategic measures Strategic measures to be defined Strategic highlights NKT Holding consider itself best owner to 51% of NKT Flexibles Stabilize performance at high activity level Focus on High-end market Decision on capacity additions 35

36 Products NKT Photonics 36

37 Focused R&D efforts Ultra Precise Lasers KOHERAS Security (Perimeter) Wind measurements Oil exploration and exploitation Market growing from low base New functionality drives application market Potential market of 1 bndkk Large displays High Power Fiber Lasers Crystal Fibre Cutting and welding Semiconductor and solar cell production Anti missile defence Global market size: ~ 1,1 bndkk 9% of total laser market 30-40% annual growth rate Substitution from conventional lasers Marking Super Continuum (White Light) KOHERAS & Crystal Fibre Biotech/microscopy Measurement/test equipm. Semiconductor inspection Surface topography Market growing from low base New functionality drives application market Potential to substitute conventional laser market of estimated 1 bndkk Fire detection Distributed Temperature Sensing LIOS Technology Power cable monitoring Oil exploitation LNG terminals and tankers Global market size: ~ 0,5 bndkk Market for power cable monitoring and oil exploitation expects to show strong growth High temp. ovens 37

38 NKT Photonics Group Strategic targets Average organic growth: 35% p.a. EBITA-margin expansion from (22)% to 12% Potential for substantial growth beyond 2012 Strategic measures Customer understanding Product development Develop the market Efficient production and logistics Organization and leadership Strategic highlights Strong emphasis on product development and market penetration Success criteria: Culture change from development organization to volume production 38

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