S&P 500 Sector Intellect Trend Analysis Homebuilders

Transcription

1 S&P 500 Sector Intellect Trend Analysis Homebuilders December 14, 2016 Lindsey Bell Senior Analyst Too Early To Break Ground On A Homebuilding Recovery Searching High and Low for Conviction Homebuilding stocks have benefited from the Trump bump, but to a much smaller extent than the broader indices, indicating homebuilders remain out of favor despite a steadily improving housing market. Year-to-date, the S&P 1500 Homebuilding Sub-Industry Index is only up 0.9%, versus the 12.3% gain in the S&P 1500, and the sub-industry is still 6% below its late July peak. Macro indicators of the housing market remain strong. New and existing home sales have been in a steady up-trend for several years with new home sales in October showing close to 18% growth year-over-year. October housing starts rose to the best level since August The Case-Shiller home price index has generally risen since March 2012, and is up 43% since then. The Housing Market index, a survey of homebuilder sentiment, was 63 in November, well above the neutral level of 50 and near 2015 highs. Consumer confidence reached its highest level since 2007 in November, and has historically been a tailwind for the housing industry. That paints a pretty picture, so why is there a seeming disconnect between housing market indicators and homebuilding stocks? It s easiest to point a finger at rising interest rates or the expectation for interest rates to rise in the future as the reason for weakness year-to-date. The Federal Reserve Board was initially expected to raise rates four times in 2016, which weighed on the sub-industry throughout the year, despite short-term interest rates remaining unchanged. The market is pricing in a 25 basis-point increase from the Fed to be announced today. Since the election, the national average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage suddenly rose to 4.13%, from 3.54% on November 3 rd according to data from Freddie Mac. Rates haven t been that high since 2014, though mortgage rates are still below historic standards (averaged 8.4% between 1972 and 2015). Understandably, the sharp increase in rates since the election is a concern, especially if wage growth doesn t follow suit. Regardless, the recent move doesn t account for the year-to-date performance of the homebuilders. A closer look at industry specific data provides a more telling story. Two key metrics investors keep a close eye on, and oftentimes drive the sub-industry s stocks, are backlog and gross margins. We entered 2016 with homebuilders anticipating gross margin expansion in the wake of less speculative housing inventory and easier comparisons versus 2015, which was hurt by labor shortages. Backlog on the other hand was expected to slow from peak levels reached in 2015, but still remain strong. Backlog is the foundation for future revenue and profit growth, so it is crucial to see not only growth but also conversion in this area. Gross margins steadily improved from a mid-single digits rate in the early years of the recovery, to a peak of 21.90% in the fourth quarter of This drove higher profits, resulting in strong results and stock appreciation during this period. Small changes in the gross margin lead to large changes in bottom-line results. In 2015, the quarterly average gross margin contracted by 30 basis points from the peak. Thus far in 2016, another 30 of contraction has been experienced with the year-to-date quarterly average margin now 21.3%. While that is still well ahead of the post recession average of 18.8%, further 1

2 contraction is expected in the fourth quarter. As seen in Chart 1, margins peaked in 2014 and the S&P 1500 Homebuilder Sub-Industry Index followed, as its performance lags by about a quarter. Since then, the index is down 6%. Chart 1: S&P 1500 Homebuilders Gross Margin vs Index Price 25% % % % 200 5% 100 Gross Margin % Homebuilder Index Price 0% 0 Source: Bloomberg. Index price is based on quarterly data. Land costs and availability, along with labor shortages and increased construction costs have put pressure on gross margins for many homebuilders. In the most popular areas (where employment growth is strongest), land prices are bid up as the housing recovery ages. Labor availability has been impacted by minimum wage laws and higher regulation, in addition to fewer individuals willing to participate in the trade. Not all homebuilders are impacted in the same way from the aforementioned inputs. Much of the pressure can be attributed to regional differences (also known as a shift in mix) location, location, location. On the bright side, pricing power has been a benefit over several quarters as inventories and interest rates remain low. D.R. Horton and Toll Brothers have maintained or increased their gross margin rates in the last several quarters as pricing power has been a key component in their success. Several companies mentioned their ability to increase average selling prices in their most recent quarters, though not all have been able to offset costs. Lennar and PulteGroup are prepared for lower margins as lower cost land purchased years ago is now running off their pipelines. Backlog ended Q on strong footing, with the largest builders averaging growth of 24.1% in backlog dollars. Investors anticipated a bit of a decline in that rate for 2016 as the group was going up against the outsized growth rates of 2015 (in the low-to mid-twenty percent range). The drop-off has been larger than thought. In the matter of three quarters, backlog growth decelerated from 23.5% to 12.3%. A move that sharp makes it hard for investors to reward the stocks. Table 1: Homebuilder Backlog Growth Backlog $ Growth Y/Y 12/31/2015 9/30/2016 DHI 10.1% 8.0% LEN 29.2% 13.3% PHM 26.4% 19.7% NVR 12.8% 9.8% TOL 33.7% 13.7% CAA 40.1% 10.0% KBH 40.0% 16.4% Industry Avg. 23.5% 12.3% Source: CFRA. Industry average calculated on a market capitalization weighted basis. 2

3 Reduced backlog growth, gross margins falling from peak levels, increased input costs, rising interest rates and cycle high home prices have investors worried that the homebuilders are in the final innings of an economic cycle. The sentiment is clear in the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 11.4x, which is a significant discount to the 14.8x averaged since the start of Heading into the election, the group traded at about 10.5x earnings. The only time the group has seen that low of a multiple (since the recession) was at the start of 2016 when the market was hit with weak economic data and global stock market gyrations that suggested a major slowdown could be imminent. Chart 2: S&P 1500 Homebuilders Price Performance and Forward P/E Ratio x 25.0x 23.0x 21.0x 19.0x 17.0x 15.0x 13.0x 11.0x 9.0x 7.0x S&P 1500 Homebuilding Index Value S&P 1500 Homebuilding Forward P/E Source: S&P Capital IQ. Valuation based on next twelve month earnings. What we are having a hard time reconciling is that even if the housing recovery is slowing, it doesn t seem that it will grind it to an absolute halt. The market feels as though it is prepared to price in this scenario. Household formation has lagged since the housing boom, but the U.S. Census Bureau projections suggest that household formations will average about 1.5 million per year through 2020, which is well ahead of the 900,000 annual average in the last 5 years. Trends to move to suburbs are once again improving, and millennials are getting older. They are expected to finally begin to form families as they feel more comfortable with their jobs prospects, a trend that will benefit the housing market. To be sure, for those millennials to buy homes, the job market and wages will need to improve and overall economic activity will need to sustain an increased pace of growth. Interest rate increases and inflation will have to rise slow and steady. That adds up to a lot of uncertainty and combined with margin pressures explains the underperformance of the homebuilders as a group. Despite that, we think that as long as the economy is not going into recession and interest rates don t shoot through the roof, the housing market and homebuilder profitability should continue to steadily improve. As pointed out above, some homebuilders will outperform others given land diversity, pricing power and other company specific reasons. CFRA Research s banking and homebuilder analyst Erik Oja ranks Toll Brothers, Hovnanian, PulteGroup, CalAtlantic Group and Meritage Homes with four STARS, or a buy. Despite these buy recommendations, there are risks for the sub-industry as a whole. Relative to the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index has traded below its 200 moving day average since August and the moving average has been in a downtrend since mid-september. That indicates it may be difficult for the homebuilders to breakout to the upside soon. 3

4 It may take some time to confirm we are not in the final innings of a housing recovery and conviction may be hard to come by near-term. Until then, stock pickers should outperform the industry. CFRA Research scores a wide range of stocks based on their earnings quality (accruals) and cash flows. We took a look at some of the larger homebuilder scores below. The earnings score is relatively neutral for the group, confirming our assessment that investments in this sector are unlikely to show significant upside (or downside). The cash flow scores were on the high-end of the spectrum, but we believe this may be due to the long lead times and large levels of inventory (and land ownership) that is typical of the homebuilders. A score of 1 indicates lower risk, while a 10 indicates higher risk. Table 2: CFRA Scores Select Homebuilders CFRA Score EPS Cash Flow DHI 5 7 LEN 5 8 PHM 8 3 NVR 6 8 TOL 6 9 KBH 5 9 Industry 6 7 Source: CFRA Research. 4

5 Disclosure S&P GLOBAL and S&P CAPITAL IQ are used under license. The owner of these trademarks is S&P Global Inc. or its affiliate, which are not affiliated with CFRA Research or the author of this content. This content has been prepared by Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC and/or one of its affiliates. It is published and distributed by Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA with the following exceptions: In the European Union/European Economic Area, by CFRA UK Limited (company number registered in England & Wales with its registered office address at 131 Edgware Road, London, W2 2AP, United Kingdom), which is an Appointed Representative of Hutchinson Lilley Investments LLP, which is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority (No ); in Malaysia, by Standard & Poor s Malaysia Sdn Bhd, which is regulated by the Securities Commission Malaysia (License No. CMSL/A0181/2007). The content of this report and the opinions expressed herein are those of CFRA based upon publicly-available information that CFRA believes to be reliable and the opinions are subject to change without notice. This analysis has not been submitted to, nor received approval from, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or any other regulatory body. While CFRA exercised due care in compiling this analysis, CFRA AND ALL RELATED ENTITIES SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, to the full extent permitted by law, regarding the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of this information and assumes no liability with respect to the consequences of relying on this information for investment or other purposes. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of CFRA. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. CFRA and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This document may contain forward-looking statements or forecasts; such forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report is not intended to, and does not, constitute an offer or solicitation to buy and sell securities or engage in any investment activity. This report is for informational purposes only. Recommendations in this report are not made with respect to any particular investor or type of investor. Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors and this material is not intended for any specific investor and does not take into account an investor's particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs. Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document. CFRA s financial data provider is S&P Global Market Intelligence. THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS COPYRIGHTED AND TRADE SECRET MATERIAL DISTRIBUTED UNDER LICENSE FROM S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE. FOR RECIPIENT S INTERNAL USE ONLY. ( Capital IQ ). GICS is a service mark of MSCI and Capital IQ and has been licensed for use by CFRA. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2016 CFRA. All rights reserved. CFRA, the CFRA inverted pyramid logo, and STARS are registered trademarks of CFRA. al IQ, Inc. 5