The Middle Child Syndrome

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1 Erin Gibbs Equity Chief Investment Officer Standard & Poor s Investment Advisory Services (SPIAS) 55 Water Street New York, NY egibbs@spcapitaliq.com The Middle Child Syndrome The Often Overlooked MidCaps Are Getting Our Attention September 19, 2014 The S&P Dow Jones Indices US Equity mid cap index, the S&P MidCap 400, much like the middle child can sometimes be lost in the shadow of its star older sibling the S&P 500 or bypassed for the young exciting baby of the family, the S&P SmallCap 600. We d like to remind investors that there is more than just Large Cap and Small Caps. We d also like to point out the Mid Caps have frequently offered more attractive risk adjusted returns than the large or small. We d suggest that for a risk sensitive investor, Mid Caps should be considered as part of a small cap asset allocation. Mid Caps potentially give the investors exposure to higher earnings growth than large caps and have historically similar total returns to small caps with less volatility. In the table below we show the annualized returns for 3, 5 and 10 year periods as of August 31, As you can see the S&P MidCap 400 produces annualized total returns within 90 bps of the S&P Small Cap 600 for all three periods. 25 S&P 500 Total Return S&P MidCap 400 Total Return S&P SmallCap 600 Total Return Global Markets Intelligence Powered by, providing cross-asset class research; advisory services, and quantitative analytics to meet the changing needs of today s investor Year 5 Year 10 Year Source: Indexes are unmanaged, statistical composites. Index returns do not include payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the securities they represent. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Inclusion of fees and expenses in the index would lower performance. Past performance of the index is not indicative of future returns. 1

2 2 S&P 500 Total Return - Sharpe Ratio S&P MidCap 400 Total Return - Sharpe Ratio S&P SmallCap 600 Total Return - Sharpe Ratio Three-year Sharpe ratio is calculated with monthly returns. Source: When reviewing the risk reward ratios of the indices, as measured by a 36 month Sharpe Ratio, the S&P Mid Cap 400 Sharpe ratio (red line) rarely fell below that of the S&P Small Cap 600 (gray line) over the past 10 years, with the exception of the period from July 2013 to July In fact the 36 Month Sharpe Ratio of the S&P MidCap 400 has been higher than both other indices the majority of the time. It had a Sharpe Ratio higher than the S&P 500 for about 70% of the months and higher than the S&P SmallCap 600 for about 77% of the 120 months ending August 31, So now that we know Mid Cap have produced attractive returns, both absolute and relative to volatility, we wanted to see if the Mid Caps are still attractive looking forward, from an earnings growth estimate perspective. Since the start of 2014, the Next Twelve Month (NTM) EPS estimates have risen for the S&P MidCap 400 Index the most, with a 11.2% increase to $77.14 expected mean EPS. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index trails at a 9.6% increase followed by the S&P 500 Index increase of only 7.8%. But on an index return basis we see a different pattern. The S&P SmallCap 600 is up only 2.34% YTD, while the S&P 500 and S&P Midcap 400 have remained almost tied for much of the year, currently with gains of 9.26% and 8.35% respectively.* MidCap Review 2 Source:

3 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% YTD Percent Change NTM CIQ Concensus EPS Estimate Index Bottom Up As Of September 08, % 11.24% 7.81% S&P SmallCap 600 Index S&P MidCap 400 Index S&P 500 Index Source: So what does this potentially bode for midcaps? Possibly that midcaps are in the sweet spot of having attractive earnings growth but stock prices (and valuations) aren t being punished like small caps that started the year with rather lofty valuations. Also mid caps may not be as exposed to sentiment around expected interest rate increases in the US because the total returns achieved come from a higher portion of capital appreciation rather than dividend payments versus large caps. We see potential increased profit growth while offering less return volatility in the mid cap space. Three names included in our S&P Mid Cap 3 model portfolio that we d like to highlight are: Everest Re Group (RE) Financials, Insurance Price $ (close as of Sept 17th), S&P CIQ Consensus Mean Target Price $ (As of Sept 17th) Alaska Air Group (ALK) Industrials, Airlines Price $46.12 (close as of Sept 17th), S&P CIQ Consensus Mean Target Price $56.00 (As of Sept 17th) Tupperware (TUP) Consumer Discretionary, Household Durables Price $73.19 (close as of Sept 17th), S&P CIQ Consensus Mean Target Price $84.57 (As of Sept 17th) MidCap Review 3

4 Required Disclosures Disclaimer Global Market Intelligence ( GMI ) is a business unit of S&P Capital IQ. Standard & Poor s Investment Advisory Services LLC ( SPIAS ), a registered investment adviser with U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a wholly owned subsidiary of McGraw Hill Financial, Inc., operates under the GMI brand. SPIAS provides nondiscretionary advisory services to institutional clients and does not provide advice to underlying clients of the firms to which it provides advisory services. SPIAS does not act as a "fiduciary" or as an "investment manager", as defined under Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA), to any investor. The S&P 4 model portfolio is provided by SPIAS and may be provided to you by third parties. The S&P 4 model portfolio described herein is model portfolio ( model ) only. The model is not a collective investment fund. Assets managed in accordance with the model may lose money. Past performance of the model is not indicative of future returns. With respect to the models recommended by SPIAS, investors should realize that such investment recommendations are provided only as a general guideline. There is no agreement or understanding whatsoever that SPIAS will provide individualized advice to any investor. SPIAS is not responsible for client suitability. SPIAS does not take into account any information about any investor or any investor s assets when creating, providing or maintaining any model. SPIAS does not have any discretionary authority or control with respect to purchasing or selling securities or making other investments. Individual investors should ultimately rely on their own judgment and/or the judgment of a financial advisor in making their investment decisions. Reference to a particular security by SPIAS is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice. SPIAS or its affiliates (collectively, S&P) and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P s opinions, analyses and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. While SPIAS has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, SPIAS does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non-public information received in connection with each analytical process. Indexes are unmanaged, statistical composites. Index returns do not include payment of any sales charges or fees an investor would pay to purchase the securities they represent. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Inclusion of fees and expenses in the index would lower performance. Past performance of the index is not indicative of future returns. Standard & Poor s Ratings Services does not contribute to or participate in the provision of investment advice and or model. Standard & Poor s Ratings Services may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at and its affiliates provide a wide range of services to, or relating to, many organizations, including issuers of securities, investment advisers, broker-dealers, investment banks, other financial institutions and financial intermediaries, and accordingly may receive fees or other economic benefits from those organizations, including organizations whose securities or services they may recommend, rate, include in model portfolios, evaluate or otherwise address. SPIAS may consider research and other information from affiliates in making its investment recommendations. The investment policies of certain models specifically state that among the information SPIAS will consider in evaluating a security are the credit ratings assigned by its affiliate, Standard & Poor s Ratings Services s. SPIAS does not consider the ratings assigned by other credit rating agencies. Credit rating criteria and scales may differ among credit rating agencies. Ratings assigned by other credit rating agencies may reflect more or less favorable opinions of creditworthiness than ratings assigned by Standard & Poor s Ratings Services. An investment based upon the model should only be made after consulting with a financial advisor and with an understanding of the risks associated with any investment in securities, including, but not limited to, market risk, currency risk, interest rate risk, political and credit risks, the risk of economic recession and the risk that issuers of securities or general stock market conditions may worsen, over time. Foreign investing involves certain risks, including currency fluctuations and controls, restrictions on foreign investments, less governmental supervision and regulation, less liquidity and the potential for market volatility and political instability. As with any investment, investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that when redeemed, an investor s shares may be worth more or less than their original cost. The model may allocate to the following assets classes which are subject to additional risks: (i) Small Cap and Mid Cap companies entail greater risk than investing in larger, more established ones. (ii) Real estate investment trusts may be 4

5 Required Disclosures affected by changes in the value of the underlying property, the quality of credit extended, defaults by borrowers and heavy cash flow dependency. (iii) The value of the underlying investments could decline because the financial condition of an issuer may change, financial markets may fluctuate or overall prices may decline. (iv) Unforeseen events associated with a company. (v) Declines in securities value due to factors affecting markets generally or markets may favor particular kinds of securities or asset classes at different times. (vi) Stock prices typically fluctuate more than other types of securities and move in cycles with periods of rising and falling stock prices. Copyright 2014 by Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. Redistribution, reproduction and/or photocopying in whole or in part is prohibited without written permission. All rights reserved. STANDARD & POOR S, S&P, S&P 500, S&P MIDCAP 400 and S&P SMALLCAP 600 are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. CAPITAL IQ is a registered trademark of Capital IQ, Inc. S&P CAPITAL IQ is a trademark of Standard & Poor s Financial Services LLC. For additional disclaimers and disclosures please click on: 5

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