STATE OF MICHIGAN BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION

Transcription

1 STATE OF MICHIGAN BEFORE THE MICHIGAN PUBLIC SERVICE COMMISSION In the matter of the Application of ) DTE ELECTRIC COMPANY ) for Authority to Implement a Power ) Case No. U1803 Supply Cost Recovery Plan in its ) Rate Schedules for 2018 Metered ) Jurisdictional Sales of Electricity ) EXHIBITS OF DEREK M. ARNOLD

2 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A3 Projected Fuel, Purchases and Sales of Power, and PSCR Expense Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 (g) Source 1 Generation & Fuel 2 GWh 37,910 39,68 37,217 36,629 0,725 Exh A11, line 19 3 $1,000 $ 679,935 $ 702,956 $ 683,611 $ 679,791 $ 757,80 Exh A1, line 52 5 Ludington Losses 6 GWh (81) (513) (623) (630) (622) Exh A11, line Net Wholesale Power Purchases/Sales 9 GWh 6,737 5,185 7,550 8,2,095 Exh A6, page 1, line $1,000 $ 3,319 $ 300,11 $ 366,078 $ 399,378 $ 293,830 Exh A6, page 1, line Emission Allowances 13 NO x Seasonal $1,000 $ $ 389 $ $ $ Exh A7, line 31 1 NO x Annual $1,000 $ $ $ $ $ Exh A8, line SO 2 (CSAPR) $1,000 $ $ $ $ $ Exh A9, line SO 2 (ARP) $1,000 $ 28 $ 22 $ 16 $ 13 $ 9 Exh A10, line Chemical Costs 19 Urea $1,000 $ 8,992 $ 9,328 $ 9,537 $ 9,816 $ 10,091 Exh A12, line 20 Limestone $1,000 $ 3,199 $ 3,281 $ 3,316 $ 3,506 $ 3,628 Exh A12, line 9 21 Activated Carbon $1,000 $ 3,936 $,092 $ 3,83 $ 3,763 $ 3,08 Exh A12, line 1 22 Trona $1,000 $,97 $,516 $ 3,86 $ 3,335 $ 2,68 Exh A12, line Calcium Bromide $1,000 $ 3 $ 312 $ 357 $ 07 $ 1 Exh A12, line Net System Output 26 GWh 5,059 5,032 5,037 5,138 5,092 Exh A23, col (g), lines $1,000 $ 1,05,700 $ 1,025,011 $ 1,070,613 $ 1,100,009 $ 1,071,18 Sum lines 3, 10, 13 thru 16, 19 thru $/MWh $ $ $ $ 2.37 $ line 26 line Bundled Transmission 31 $1,000 $37,06 $383,29 $05,01 $21,796 $38,125 Exh A19, line NonPSCR Customer Sales Adjustment 3 GWh 1,800 1,810 1,789 1,79 1,79 Workpaper DMA5 35 $1,000 $ 5,657 $ 52,688 $ 51,557 $ 51,355 $ 52,09 Arnold Testimony/Reconciliation Data Transmission Adjustment 38 GWh 1,800 1,810 1,789 1,79 1,79 line 3 39 $1,000 $ 13,863 $ 15,06 $ 16,101 $ 16,765 $ 17,3 line 31 * (line 38 line 26) 0 1 PSCR Fuel & Purchased Power 2 GWh 3,259 3,222 3,28 3,3 3,298 line 26 line 3 3 $1,000 $ 1,32,226 $ 1,30,211 $ 1,08,356 $ 1,53,68 $ 1,39,30 line 27 + line 31 line 35 line 39 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 33.5 $ 33.2 line 3 line 2

3 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A Projected Wholesale Energy, Capacity, & Emission Allowance Prices Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 (g) (h) (i) (j) No. 1 Michigan Hub Energy Price Forecast Emission Allowance Price Projections 2 Month OnPeak OffPeak OnPeak OffPeak RTC Year Annual NO x Seasonal NO x SO 2 (CSAPR) 3 ($/MWh) ($/MWh) (hours) (hours) ($/MWh) ($/ton) ($/ton) ($/ton) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Planning Capacity 12 Sep Year ($/kwyear) 13 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Avg Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

4 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A5 Capacity Resource Plan Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 1 Resource Plan Requirement 2 3 DTE Electric Peak Demand NonCoincident with MISO MW 10,16 10,397 10,388 10,39 10,271 5 Adjusted DTE Electric Peak Demand MW 10,0 10,025 10,017 10,023 9, UCAP Planning Reserve Margin (UPRM) MW Total Required Planning Resources MW 10,887 10,868 10,859 10,85 10, Planning Resources 13 1 Owned Fossil & Nuclear Generation Resources (UCAP) MW 9,671 9,773 9,650 9,759 10, Demand Resources (Interruptible Load) MW Owned Renewable Generation Resources (UCAP) MW Long Term Purchases (UCAP) 21 PURPA MW Renewable MW Third Party ZRC Purchases MW Total Planning Resources (UCAP) MW 10,90 10,92 10,918 10,871 11, Required Capacity Purchases MW (53) (56) (59) (17) (59)

5 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A6 Purchased Power, Sales, and Expense Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 MISO WHOLESALE PURCHASES & SALES 2 MISO Wholesale Purchases 3 GWh 5,338,025 5,930 5,790 2,972 $1,000 $ 18,805 $ 102,257 $ 153,908 $ 18,789 $ 75,997 5 $/MWh $ $ 25.1 $ $ $ MISO Wholesale Sales 8 GWh 2,389 2,97 2,97 2,060 3,982 9 $1,000 $ 88,81 $ 10,756 $ 90,713 $ 70,556 $ 131,60 10 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 3.2 $ MISO Market Expenses (excluding Sch 16 &17) $1,000 $ 25,155 $ 26,110 $ 2,315 $ 2,198 $ 28, NET MISO PURCHASES & SALES 15 GWh 2,99 1,078 3,32 3,730 (1,011) 16 $1,000 $ 85,16 $ 23,610 $ 87,511 $ 102,31 $ (27,298) 17 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 27.6 $ RENEWABLE PURCHASES 20 Renewable Energy Build 21 Wind 22 GWh 1,518 1,868 1,873 2,262 2, $1,000 $ 97,861 $ 116,15 $ 116,663 $ 135,9 $ 169,671 2 $/MWh $ 6.6 $ $ $ $ Solar 27 GWh $1,000 $ 8,692 $ 6,593 $ 7,155 $ 8,157 $ 8,39 29 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 12.5 $ Renewable Energy PPA 32 Wind 33 GWh 1,27 1,27 1,27 1,27 1,27 3 $1,000 $ 89,907 $ 90,86 $ 91,10 $ 91,522 $ 91, $/MWh $ $ $ $ 6.13 $ Landfill Gas / Biomass 38 GWh $1,000 $ 16,736 $ 16,736 $ 16,782 $ 16,736 $ 16,736 0 $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ TOTAL RENEWABLE ENERGY PURCHASES 3 GWh 3,197 3,516 3,527 3,92,515 $1,000 $ 213,196 $ 230,320 $ 231,70 $ 251,910 $ 286,682 5 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 6.20 $ OTHER 8 Capacity 1 9 MW (Required on June 1st) (53) (56) (59) (17) (59) 50 $1,000 $,867 $,593 $,738 $ 2,61 $ (8,609) PURPA/PA2 53 GWh $1,000 $ 3,136 $ 3,623 $ 35,122 $ 35,595 $ 36, $/MWh $ $ $ 59.6 $ $ MISO Market Admin Fees 58 Schedules 16 & 17 $1,000 $ 6,973 $ 6,967 $ 6,967 $ 6,981 $ 6, NET WHOLESALE PURCHASES & SALES 61 GWh 6,737 5,185 7,550 8,2, $1,000 $ 3,319 $ 300,11 $ 366,078 $ 399,378 $ 293, $/MWh $ $ $ 8.9 $ 8. $ Capacity costs in calendar year consist of JanMay at the previous MISO Planning Year price and associated volume as well as the JunDec current MISO Planning Year price and associated volume. The volume shown is for the current Planning Year that begins June 1st.

6 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A6 Purchased Power, Sales, and Expense Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 2 of Renewable Company Owned 1 Renewable Energy Build Wind 2 Gratiot 2 3 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 23,296 $ 2,303 $ 2,570 $ 2,502 $ 2, Minden 9 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 7,573 $ 7,573 $ 7,59 $ 7,573 $ 7, Sigel 15 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 16,681 $ 16,681 $ 16,727 $ 16,681 $ 16, McKinley 21 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 3,555 $ 3,555 $ 3,565 $ 3,555 $ 3, Echo 27 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 22,589 $ 22,589 $ 22,651 $ 22,589 $ 22, Brookfield 33 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 13,557 $ 13,557 $ 13,59 $ 13,557 $ 13, Pinnebog 39 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 9,697 $ 9,697 $ 9,72 $ 9,697 $ 9,697 3 Pine River 5 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 2,201 $ 21,195 $ 21,253 $ 21,195 $ 21, Wind Build Project 51 MW GWh $/MWh $ 8.58 $ $1,000 $ 19,150 $ 19, Wind Build Project 57 MW GWh $/MWh $ $1,000 $ 3, MI Green Power Year 1 Implementation 63 MW (6.8) (6.8) (6.8) (6.8) (6.8) 6 GWh (22.5) (22.5) (22.6) (22.5) (22.5) 65 $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ (1,288) $ (1,288) $ (1,292) $ (1,288) $ (1,288) MI Green Power Year 2 Implementation 69 MW (9.0) (9.0) (9.0) (9.0) 70 GWh (30.0) (30.1) (30.0) (30.0) 71 $/MWh $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ (1,718) $ (1,722) $ (1,718) $ (1,718)

7 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A6 Purchased Power, Sales, and Expense Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 3 of Renewable Company Owned 1 Total Wind Build 2 MW GWh 1,518 1,868 1,873 2,262 2,853 $/MWh $ 6.6 $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 97,861 $ 116,15 $ 116,663 $ 135,9 $ 169, Renewable Energy Build Solar 9 DTE Solar Currents 10 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 3,91 $,050 $,176 $,337 $, Demille/Turril/O'Shea 16 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ 7.08 $ 7.01 $ $ $1,000 $ 6,1 $ 6,2 $ 6,387 $ 6,582 $ 6, Ford 22 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $1,000 $ 51 $ 63 $ Selfridge 28 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $1,000 $ 751 $ MI Green Power Year 1 Implementation 3 MW (12.8) (12.8) (12.8) (12.8) (12.8) 35 GWh (22.5) (22.) (22.3) (22.2) (22.1) 36 $/MWh $ $ 7.08 $ 7.01 $ $ $1,000 $ (1,663) $ (1,658) $ (1,69) $ (1,699) $ (1,731) MI Green Power Year 2 Implementation 0 MW (17.1) (17.1) (17.1) (17.1) 1 GWh (30.0) (29.9) (29.7) (29.6) 2 $/MWh $ 7.08 $ 7.01 $ $ $1,000 $ (2,222) $ (2,209) $ (2,277) $ (2,319) 5 Total Solar Build 6 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ 12.5 $ $1,000 $ 8,692 $ 6,593 $ 7,155 $ 8,157 $ 8,39

8 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A6 Purchased Power, Sales, and Expense Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: of Renewable PPA 1 Renewable Energy PPA Wind 2 Heritage Stoney Corners / Garden 3 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 7,308 $ 7,62 $ 7,918 $ 8,300 $ 8, Invenergy Gratiot 1 9 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ 91.3 $ 91.3 $ 91.3 $ $1,000 $ 26,166 $ 26,789 $ 26,789 $ 26,789 $ 26, NextEra Tuscola Bay 15 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 22,6 $ 22,6 $ 22,6 $ 22,6 $ 22, NextEra Tuscola Wind II 21 MW GWh $/MWh $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ $1,000 $ 16,016 $ 16,016 $ 16,016 $ 16,016 $ 16, NextEra Pheasant Run 27 MW GWh $/MWh $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ 9.25 $ $1,000 $ 13,58 $ 13,58 $ 13,58 $ 13,58 $ 13, Heritage Big Turtle 33 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $,369 $,369 $,369 $,369 $, Total Wind PPA 39 MW GWh 1,27 1,27 1,27 1,27 1,27 1 $/MWh $ $ $ $ 6.13 $ $1,000 $ 89,907 $ 90,86 $ 91,10 $ 91,522 $ 91, Renewable Energy PPA Landfill Gas / Biomass 6 L'Anse Warden 7 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 11,965 $ 11,965 $ 11,998 $ 11,965 $ 11, Blue Water Renewables 53 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 2,525 $ 2,525 $ 2,532 $ 2,525 $ 2, Waste Management 59 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 2,26 $ 2,26 $ 2,252 $ 2,26 $ 2, Total LFG/Bio PPA 65 MW GWh $/MWh $ $ $ $ $ $1,000 $ 16,736 $ 16,736 $ 16,782 $ 16,736 $ 16,736

9 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A7 NO x Ozone Season Emission Allowance Projections Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 1 Beginning Balance of Allowances Allowances DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) Allowances 8,2 8,2 8,2 8,2 8,2 5 Purchase of Allowances Allowances Sale of Allowances Allowances 8 9 Total Allowances Available Allowances 9,085 9,205 8,2 8,2 8, Expected Allowances to be Consumed Allowances (8,923) (9,205) (8,06) (7,990) (6,63) Ending Balance Allowances , Beginning Balance of Allowances $ $ $ $ $ $ DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) $ $ $ $ $ $ Purchase of Allowances $ $ $ 389,55 $ $ $ Sale of Allowances $ $ $ $ $ $ 23 2 Total Allowances Available $ $ $ 389,55 $ $ $ Expected Allowances to be Consumed $ $ $ (389,55) $ $ $ Ending Balance NOx Allowances Asset Account $ $ $ $ $ $ Total PSCR Expense $ $ $ 389,55 $ $ $ Average Cost of Consumed Allowances $/Allowance $ $ 2.31 $ $ $

10 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A8 NO x Annual Emission Allowance Projections Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 1 Beginning Balance of Allowances Allowances 11,527 20,090 28,033 37,681 8, DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) Allowances 29,36 29,36 29,36 29,36 29,36 5 Purchase of Allowances Allowances 6 7 Sale of Allowances Allowances 8 9 Total Allowances Available Allowances 0,873 9,36 57,379 67,027 77, Expected Allowances to be Consumed Allowances (20,782) (21,03) (19,698) (18,931) (16,111) Ending Balance Allowances 20,090 28,033 37,681 8,096 61, Beginning Balance of Allowances $ $ $ $ $ $ DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) $ $ $ $ $ $ Purchase of Allowances $ $ $ $ $ $ Sale of Allowances $ $ $ $ $ $ 23 2 Total Allowances Available $ $ $ $ $ $ Expected Allowances to be Consumed $ $ $ $ $ $ Ending Balance NOx Allowances Asset Account $ $ $ $ $ $ Total PSCR Expense $ $ $ $ $ $ Average Cost of Consumed Allowances $/Allowance $ $ $ $ $

11 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A9 SO 2 Emission Allowance Projections (CrossState Air Pollution Rule) Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 1 Beginning Balance of Allowances Allowances 13,23 171, , ,35 293, DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) Allowances 80,261 80,261 80,261 80,261 80,261 5 Prior Purchase of Allowances Allowances 6 Purchase of Allowances Allowances 7 8 Total Available Allowances Allowances 21,50 251,98 289, ,696 37, Sale of Excess Allowances Allowances Expected Allowances to be Consumed Allowances (2,781) (3,017) (38,793) (36,906) (31,038) 13 1 Ending Balance Allowances 171, , ,35 293,790 33, Beginning Balance of Allowances $ DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) $ Prior Purchase of Allowances $ 22 Purchase of Allowances $ 23 2 Total Available Allowance $ Sale of Excess Allowances $ Expected Allowances to be Consumed $ Total PSCR Expense $ Ending Balance SO 2 Allowances Asset Account $ Average Cost of Consumed Allowances $/Allowance $ $ $ $ $

12 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A10 SO 2 Emission Allowance Projections (Acid Rain Program) Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 1 Beginning Balance of Allowances Allowances 512, ,55 832, ,900 1,161, DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) Allowances 202, , , , ,578 5 Prior Purchase of Allowances Allowances 6 Purchase of Allowances Allowances 7 8 Total Available Allowances Allowances 715, ,132 1,03,69 1,198,78 1,36, Sale of Excess Allowances Allowances Expected Allowances to be Consumed Allowances (2,781) (3,017) (38,793) (36,906) (31,038) 13 1 Ending Balance Allowances 672,55 832, ,900 1,161,572 1,333, Beginning Balance of Allowances $ 7,737 6,35 2,05 08,93 395, DECo Annual Allocation From EPA (Excluding MPPA) $ Prior Purchase of Allowances $ 22 Purchase of Allowances $ 23 2 Total Available Allowance $ 7,737 6,35 2,05 08,93 395, Sale of Excess Allowances $ Expected Allowances to be Consumed $ (28,392) (21,90) (15,912) (12,579) (9,008) Total PSCR Expense $ 28,392 21,90 15,912 12,579 9, Ending Balance SO 2 Allowances Asset Account $ 6,35 2,05 08,93 395,91 386, Average Cost of Consumed Allowances $/Allowance $ 0.66 $ 0.51 $ 0.1 $ 0.3 $ 0.29

13 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A11 Forecast of Plant Generation Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 (GWh) No. Plant Belle River (1) GWh 5,7 5,795 5,196 5,090, Combined Cycle GWh ,038 5 Fermi 2 GWh 8,76 9,523 8,96 8,75 9, Greenwood GWh Monroe GWh 15,635 15,850 15,79 15,831 15, River Rouge GWh 1,006 1, St. Clair GWh,59,536,18,01 2, Trenton Channel GWh 1,793 1,567 1,731 1,907 1, Peakers GWh Total System GWh 37,910 39,68 37,217 36,629 0, Ludington Generation GWh 1,31 1,599 1,98 1,967 1, Ludington Pumping GWh 1,912 2,113 2,571 2,597 2, Ludington Losses GWh (81) (513) (623) (630) (622) 2 25 (1) DTE Electric Ownership Share.

14 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A12 Urea, Limestone, Powder Activated Carbon, Trona, Witness: D. M. Arnold and Calcium Bromide Expense Projections Page: 1 of 1 Years Urea 2 Cost of Delivered Liquid Urea (70% concentrate) $/Ton % Urea Required Tons 29,92 29,899 29,793 29,862 29,892 Urea Expense $ $ 8,991,806 $ 9,327,738 $ 9,537,030 $ 9,815,887 $ 10,091, Limestone 7 Cost of Delivered Limestone $/Ton Limestone Required Tons 237, , ,15 238,36 239,550 9 Limestone Expense $ $ 3,198,616 $ 3,281,72 $ 3,315,85 $ 3,505,999 $ 3,627, Powdered Activated Carbon (PAC) 12 Cost of Delivered Brominated PAC $/lb $ 0.83 $ 0.86 $ 0.88 $ 0.91 $ Brominated PAC Required lb,736,015,776,190,335,017,126,709 3,261,227 1 Brominated PAC Expense $ $ 3,936,92 $,091,551 $ 3,83,322 $ 3,763,2 $ 3,08, Trona 17 Cost of Delivered Trona $/ton $ $ $ $ $ Trona Required ton 19,310 17,121 13,96 11,700 9, Trona Expense $ $,97,096 $,515,731 $ 3,863,533 $ 3,33,883 $ 2,68, Calcium Bromide 22 Cost of Delivered Calcium Bromide $/lb $ 0.55 $ 0.56 $ 0.57 $ 0.59 $ Calcium Bromide Required lb 629, ,25 621,72 691, ,822 2 Calcium Bromide Expense $ $ 33,72 $ 312,19 $ 356,859 $ 06,901 $ 13,579

15 Michigan Public Service Commission Case No.: U1803 DTE Electric Company Exhibit: A13 Forecast of Plant Net Demonstrated Capacity (NDC) Witness: D. M. Arnold Years Page: 1 of 1 (MW) (g) No. Plant Belle River (1) 1,03 1,03 1,03 1,03 1,03 1, Combined Cycle ,181 5 Fermi 2 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1,161 1, Greenwood Monroe 3,086 3,086 3,086 3,086 3,086 3, River Rouge St. Clair 1,258 1,258 1,258 1,258 1, Trenton Channel Peakers 2,97 2,97 2,97 2,86 2,86 2, Wind Solar Combined Heat and Power Ludington Generation (2) 990 1,01 1,038 1,062 1,062 1, Totals 12,091 12,276 12,300 12,071 12,226 12, (1) DTE Electric Ownership Share 30 (2) DTE Electric Ownership Share, at average pond level modeled