The Australian national electricity market

Transcription

1 The Australian national electricity market Are you managing your risks? AusIMM Technical presentation John Bartlett and Patrick Booth 26 April 2017 and

2 Agenda 1 Market 2 operating principles Supply side influences 3 Demand side influences 4 5 Risk Typical bill components & cost drivers management options 6 What next? Energetics Pty Ltd 2

3 About Energetics Energetics has been creating value for ASX200 firms for more than 30 years We procure more than $1b in electricity and more than $250m in gas annually for our clients We are trusted energy managers or advisors to more than 200 of Australia s largest energy users Energetics employs over 50 specialists with technical, commercial and regulatory insights Our experts support more than 75 companies with NGER and NPI compliance We have nine Certified Energy Managers (CEM) and three Energy Managers In Training (EMITs) We have nine Certified Measurement and Verification Professionals (CMVP) and one awaiting final certification It is our core business to understand regulations, compliance and grant funding programs Our data management processes undergo annual reviews by external auditors More than 12 million line items, across 5,000 sites and 17,000 accounts from various reporting platforms have been migrated to Envizi 2.8 is the average number of tertiary qualifications per employee Our energy accountants support: 27 businesses, 6500 sites, utility accounts,$910 million annual utility spend Energetics Pty Ltd 3

4 The energy trilemma Source : Arup Energetics Pty Ltd 4

5 National Electricity Market (NEM) 1000MW 800MW 1600MW 550MW Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 5

6 The spot electricity market Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 6

7 Supply influences Energetics Pty Ltd 7

8 Costs and emissions Indicative short run cost of generation ($/MWh) by Fuel Indicative emissions of generation (tco2-e / MWh) by Fuel Source: Energetics Pty Ltd Energetics Pty Ltd 8

9 Current capacity and withdrawals Wallerawang, Munmorah & Redbank closures = 1,500 MW Gas capacity curtailments = 1,000 MW Hazelwood closure = 1,600 MW Playford & Northern closures = 800 MW Bell Bay and other gas curtailment * = 300 MW Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 9

10 Proposed capacity Proposed project locations and relative size Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 10

11 Bidding behaviour Minimum volume bid for coal plants Typical volume bid below $1000 for coal Wind volume range and mean output Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 11

12 Fuel mix Energy (MWh) as columns Capacity (MW) as lines Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 12

13 Wind and solar Storage shift Energy (MWh) as columns Capacity (MW) as lines Storage shift Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 13

14 Transmission Three broad transmission interconnection options being considered in alignment to capacity build Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 14

15 Cost and capacity Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 15

16 Natural gas The east coast is now fully exposed to international prices from LNG exports Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 16

17 Natural gas Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 17

18 Natural gas Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 18

19 Natural gas Eastern and south-eastern Australia domestic gas markets (excl. LNG) Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 19

20 Natural gas Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 20

21 Demand influences Energetics Pty Ltd 21

22 Historical demand Energy (MWh) as columns Capacity (MW) as lines Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 22

23 Demand frequency distribution Frequency (30 minute basis) Demand (MW) Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 23

24 Forecast Demand NSW example Energy (MWh) as columns Capacity (MW) as lines Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 24

25 Energy storage Energetics Pty Ltd 25

26 Two year supply - demand outlook NSW Victoria SA Queensland Source: AEMO Energetics Pty Ltd 26

27 Electricity bill components and cost drivers Energetics Pty Ltd 27

28 Key electricity bill concepts Pricing elements / terminology Network and AEMO charges Regulated charges Delivered energy cost Environmental charges* Retail charges Wholesale electricity price = Hedging cost + service charges + margin on all non-network cost Retail energy cost * Includes compliance component of LGCs which is linked to the RET Target Source: Energetics Pty Ltd Energetics Pty Ltd 28

29 Key Key electricity bill concepts concepts Total Cost = Price ($/MWh) x Volume (MWh) Total exposure (value at risk) = Price ($/MWh) x Volume (MWh) Source: Energetics Pty Ltd Energetics Pty Ltd 29

30 Electricity spot markets unprecedented volatility Average monthly prices 2015 to current, in all NEM states Basslink failure (TAS) Summer Peak Demand (QLD) Summer New Peak Demand (All States) Winter Peak Demand & Gas shortage (SA) Generator Outages (NSW) Source: Energetics analysis of AEMO data Energetics Pty Ltd 30

31 Wholesale futures prices - NEM Calendar SA coal closure announcements 2. Winter gas pricing event 3. Hazelwood closure confirmed 4. Qld price separation due to physical constraints and region specific supply issues Calendar Futures market represents an expectation of what the spot market price will be at the contract delivery time. Source: Energetics analysis of Reuters data Energetics Pty Ltd 31

32 Electricity markets - Spot vs futures Physical flow of power Spot market Generator Transmission lines Distribution lines End users Flow of money at, or just after, time of delivery Pool Retailer Future market Prior contracts are then reconciled/settled directly between contract parties Banks ASXE Traders Retailer Generator End users Energetics Pty Ltd 32

33 Electricity procurement strategies Energetics Pty Ltd 33

34 Managing electricity market risk for our large customers Decreasing budget certainty, but potentially higher rewards 1. Fixed price partial volume flex forward contracting 2. Progressive forward purchase of variable volume 3. Fixed block purchase (eg with generator) with partial pool exposure 4. Portfolio purchase of fixed volume (partial pool exposure) 5. Managed pool exposure with active demand management/on-site generation or financial cover 6. Pool price pass-through Typically our clients have rejected further alternative options due to exposure to pool price volatility and price shocks, as well as the requirement of significant management resources Energetics Pty Ltd 34

35 Fixed vs progressive contracting Fixed price forward contracting Progressive contracting Example of outcomes Product Current futures price Progressive purchases - volume weighted average flat price NSW FY18 Base $102/MWh $58/MWh NSW FY19 Base $86/MWh $75/MWh Source: Energetics Pty Ltd Energetics Pty Ltd 35

36 Risk management approach Energetics three-tier risk management approach. 1 Buy percentage of load based on pricing: the lower the market pricing, the greater the tranche size that we seek to purchase 2 Buy percentage of load based on date: the closer to the start date, the greater the percentage of load that must be secured irrespective of market price 3 Stop loss purchase: buy the remaining load in the event of an unforeseen high market price when close to the start of the contract year. Energetics Pty Ltd 36

37 LGC price trajectory LGC prices tracking close to the tax effective regulated scheme shortfall charge, whilst renewable energy forms an increasing part of electricity cost Renewable Power Percentage (RPP) 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% ACT Hornsdale 1 ACT Hornsdale 2 AGL Silverton Price ($/MWh) 0% Jan-2014 Feb-2014 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jun-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Mar-2015 Apr-2015 May-2015 Jun-2015 Aug-2015 Sep-2015 Oct-2015 Nov-2015 Dec-2015 Jan-2016 Feb-2016 Mar-2016 Apr-2016 May-2016 Jun-2016 Jun-2016 Jul-2016 Aug-2016 Sep-2016 Oct-2016 Nov-2016 Dec-2016 Jan-2017 Jan RPP Current Future Price for CY LGC Spot Bundled PPA Price Source: Energetics analysis & CER Energetics Pty Ltd 37

38 b A range of renewable energy procurement options Level of involvement and complexity Low Standard Accept LGC / STC pass-through from retailer or self-source through ad-hoc LGC purchases Self source compliance LGCs through long term offtake agreement On-site generation (LGCs vs STC option) Corporate PPA (bundled electricity and LGCs) High Energetics Enablers and / or challenges? Maturity of market participants (including buyers) Risk appetite Electricity market rules Energetics Pty Ltd 38

39 Corporate PPAs are attracting attention Key drivers Manage electricity price volatility Reduce energy costs Reduce LGC compliance costs Science based targets (2 o C scenario) Other (e.g. supply security or independence from retailers) The market is responding to these opportunities and is evolving rapidly as renewable energy generators and retailers start to offer longer term hedge products directly to corporates Energetics Pty Ltd 39

40 Behind-the-meter solar PV The cost of installing commercial scale rooftop PV has continued to decline. Source: Solar Choice *Commercial systems - price includes STC rebate Energetics Pty Ltd 40

41 Energy productivity - Energetics methodology Source: Energetics Pty Ltd Energetics Pty Ltd 41

42 Conclusion Diversification in both physical and financial terms using fundamental principles of supply and demand is paramount for management of risk. - Physical - By volume (contingency) - By fuel - By geography - By technology - Financial - By volume - By time Energetics Pty Ltd 42

43 Disclaimer The information contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and is not intended to be financial product or investment advice or a recommendation. Energetics is authorised to provide financial product advice on derivatives to wholesale clients under the Corporations Act 2001 AFSL No: In providing information and advice to you, we rely on the accuracy of information provided by you and your company. This presentation has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual. Before making an investment decision, prospective investors should consider the appropriateness of the information having regard to their own objectives, financial situation and needs and seek legal and taxation advice appropriate to their jurisdiction. Statements made in this presentation are made as at the date of the presentation unless otherwise stated. Past performance Past performance information given in this presentation is given for illustrative purposes only and should not be relied upon as (and is not) an indication of future performance. Future performance Forward-looking statements, opinions and estimates provided in this presentation are based on assumptions and contingencies which are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market and industry trends, which are based on interpretations of current market conditions. Forward-looking statements including projections, guidance on future earnings and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Actual results, performance or achievements may vary materially for many projections because events and actual circumstances frequently do not occur as forecast and these differences can be material. Energetics Pty Ltd 43

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