Strong Growth Prospect

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1 IPO Note, Titijaya Land Bhd Not Rated Property - Real Estate Fair Value: MYR1.75 IPO Market Cap: USDm (USD159m) IPO Price: MYR1.50 Strong Growth Prospect Macro Risks Growth Value We value Titijaya at MYR1.75. The company s listing P/E is undemanding at 6x and its entrenched position in the Klang Valley will ensure sustainable sales due to persistent urbanisation and population growth. Titijaya has no exposure to the Iskandar region, which is likely to be more sensitive to the Government s recent cooling measures. We estimate strong earnings growth of 68% and 12% for FY A Klang Valley-based developer. Titijaya s developments have been largely concentrated within the Klang Valley, with its position wellentrenched in the Klang and Subang enclaves. Since its inception, the company has successfully developed more than 3,000 units of properties with a total GDV of about MYR1.1bn. It currently has about 221 acres of land with a potential GDV more than MYR4bn in its portfolio, which is expected to last until Anchoring presence within the Klang Valley ensures sustainable sales. As the cooling measures announced in the 2014 Budget are expected to have more negative impact on the Iskandar Malaysia region, Titijaya appears to be in a brighter spot, as all of its upcoming projects are located within the Klang Valley. This, to a certain extent, will ensure sustainable property sales on the persistent urbanisation and population growth of this market. Listing Sought Bursa Malaysia Main Market- Listing Date 27 Nov 2013 Public Issue 81.7m new shares including: - 17m to Malaysian public - 6m to directors & employees - 34m to MITI Bumiputra investors m to identified investors Offer for sale of up to 49.5m existing shares Shareholders (%) Promoters & substantial shareholders Shariah compliant RHB Research Team research2@rhbgroup.com 61.4 MYR1bn worth of launches in FY14. About MYR1bn worth of projects will be rolled out in in FY14. These include: i) H2O a service apartment project at Ara Damansara (GDV: MYR572m), ii) Embun Kemensah a residential development in Melawati (MYR215m), and ii) Mutiara Point Business Park and Zone Innovation Park industrial projects in Klang. Our property sales forecast for FY14 is MYR350m-400m. Robust earnings growth for FY We estimate a net profit growth of 68% and 12% for FY This is underpinned by Titijaya s unbilled sales of about MYR500m, as well as a slew of projects that will be launched over the next two years. Valuations. We value Titijaya at MYR1.75, a 35% discount to RNAV, which we think is reasonable considering the prevailing negative market sentiment on the property sector. The listing P/E of 6x, based on FY14F earnings, is undemanding. Forecasts and Valuations Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F Jun-15F Total turnover (MYRm) Recurring net profit (MYRm) Net profit growth (%) EPS (MYR) DPS (MYR) Dividend Yield (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) P/E (x) P/B (x) Net debt to equity (x) data, RHB estimates NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA Powered by EFA TM Platform 1

2 Company Profile History. The history of Titijaya can be traced back to 1997 with the incorporation of NPO Development. The company was founded by Tan Sri Lim Soon Peng, who is the managing director of Titijaya. Tan Sri Lim started his property development business in 1980s. He undertook the construction of holiday bungalows in Fraser s Hill and subsequently developed the Silverpark Apartments there via a joint-venture (JV). The management team. Titijaya is currently helmed by Tan Sri Lim as well as his son Mr Lim Poh Yit, who is the COO. Tan Sri Lim has about 40 years of experience in the property development industry. In the mid-70s, he ventured into construction and property development by forming a partnership Chan Yik Enterprise. In 1980, he set up a privately-owned company to undertake construction and engineering activities. The holiday apartments in Fraser s Hills were his first project. His son, Mr Lim Poh Yit, graduated with a Bachelor s degree in computing from Monash University. He joined the company in 2004 as a business development executive, where his role included undertaking project development feasibility studies and identifying suitable landbank, while also acting as Tan Sri Lim s personal assistant. He was subsequently promoted to COO in Today, he is responsible for the company s day-to-day operations, which include strategic planning, property development projects, human resources and financial operations. Company overview. Titijaya s developments have been largely concentrated within the Klang Valley. Its position is well-entrenched in the Klang and Subang enclaves. Since its inception, the company has successfully developed more than 3,000 units of properties with a total GDV of about MYR1.1bn. It currently has about 221 acres of land with a potential GDV of more than MYR4bn in its portfolio, which is expected to last until Given its range of products, Titijaya s target market segments include the first-time home buyers, upgraders and investors. Over the years, the company has successfully developed many residential, commercial and industrial projects. These include Mutiara Bukit Raja in Klang, shop offices at the Klang Sentral Commercial Centre, as well as the E-Tiara Serviced Apartments and Casa Tiara Serviced Suites in Subang Jaya. These projects have achieved an average take-up rate of almost 100%. Figure 1: Titijaya s exposure to various property product segments Industrial, MYR529.9mil, 14% Residential, MYR1,645.1mil, 43% Commercial, MYR1,620.7mil, 43% NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 2

3 Figure 2: Completed projects Ongoing projects. Titijaya s past experience in Subang and Klang paves the way for its further penetration into the housing market there. While rising population growth has supported the pent-up demand, the maturing residential area in Subang and Klang have also fuelled demand for high-rise properties in the vicinity. Currently, the company has ongoing projects worth MYR1.1bn. While the commercial shops of various projects have generally received a take-up rate of over 90%, the small office/home office (SOHO) and serviced apartments for 3Elements and Subang Parkhomes Phase 2 have achieved decent sales of about 60%. We believe the takeup rate will gradually increase as the construction of the projects progresses. Figure 3: Ongoing projects NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 3

4 Industry Outlook Cooling measures to slow property sales As a result of the cooling measures imposed in the 2014 Budget, we believe the property market will take 3-6 months to adjust to the new regulatory changes. Historically, the house price index (HPI) saw a decline for the initial 2-3 quarters when 30% real property gains tax (RPGT) was imposed for the disposal of properties within two years of purchase. Going forward, we foresee industry-wide margin pressure. In the face of weak demand, the property developers will have limited ability to raise selling prices to pass on the incremental costs, while more aggressive marketing schemes or discounts will be needed to stimulate buying sentiment. In other words, developers may help subsidise the levy (2% was imposed in the Johor state) on behalf of the foreign buyers or offer larger discounts/rebates to lure buyers in order to sustain property sales. Figure 4: Periods when RPGT was imposed Source: National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), RHB estimates Figure 5: New RPGT regime under the 2014 Budget Category of disposal Effective from 1st Jan 2014 Citizen Non-citizen Corporate Disposal within 2 years 30% 30% 30% Disposal within 3rd year 30% 30% 30% Disposal within 4th year 20% 30% 20% Disposal within 5th year 15% 30% 15% Disposal in the 6th year and subsequent years 0% 5% 5% Source: 2014 Budget Figure 6: Historical RPGT regime Category of disposal Jan Jun-03 - Jun-04-1st Apr Jan-10 - Effective from Effective from May-03 May-04 31st Mar 2007 Dec-09 Dec-11 1st Jan st Jan 2013 Disposal within 2 years 30% 0% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% Disposal within 3rd year 20% 0% 20% 0% 5% 5% 10% Disposal within 4th year 15% 0% 15% 0% 5% 5% 10% Disposal within 5th year 5% 0% 5% 0% 5% 5% 10% Disposal in the 6th year and subsequent years 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0% 0% Source: Budget, RHBRI NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 4

5 Impact on Titijaya. As all of Titijaya s projects and landbank are located within the Klang Valley, we believe the company will be relatively less affected by the change in sentiment. Demand for properties in this market will continue to be underpinned by pent-up demand from the local population and a young working class. In our view, the cooling measures will have more substantial impact on the Iskandar Malaysia property market over the near-term, as the area has gained a lot of traction among foreigners over the past two years. The significant hike in RPGT will discourage foreign investors from buying properties there. Key Investment Themes Presence in established areas ensures sustainable sales. Although the industry outlook seems challenging, Titijaya appears to be at a brighter spot. All its upcoming projects are located within the Klang Valley (Subang), and therefore, this ought to ensure sustainable sales going forward. After all, Kuala Lumpur is the capital and financial centre of Malaysia, and it enjoys a large working population and constant migration from suburban areas. Figure 7: Titijaya s presence in Klang Valley MYR1bn projects in the pipeline. About MYR1bn worth of launches are slated for launch in this financial year (FY14). In 4Q13, a high-rise project H2O Ara Damansara will be rolled out. It comprises SOHO and serviced apartment units. The GDV of this project is estimated at MYR572m, based on an indicative pricing of MYR680 psf. We believe demand for H2O will be strong, as Ara Damansara is an emerging property hotspot within the Klang Valley, while the Subang Jaya/USJ areas are getting more mature and saturated. The establishment of many education institutions in Subang has also created a spillover demand for both commercial and residential properties. Furthermore, Ara Damansara is near the Subang airport. Titijaya s site is just opposite the upcoming Tesco hypermarket, which is currently under construction. Surrounding amenities include golf courses, Citta Mall and some educational institutions. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 5

6 Figure 8: H2O Embun Kemensah, with a GDV of MYR214m, will be Titijaya s first high-end project. It is a 15-acre site located in Ampang, near the affluent Melawati area. Other developers which have exposure in the area include: i) Sunway (SWB MK, BUY, TP: MYR3.55) s Montana, ii) Selangor Dredging (SDR MK, NR) s Melawati, and iii) Nadayu (NPB MK, NR) s Nadayu Melawati, among others. Similar to its peers, Titijaya plans to build low density luxurious semi-ds and superlink houses within a gated community, targeting the upgraders market. The area is already filled with amenities, such as shopping malls, educational institutions and medical centres. Tentatively, the courtyard villas will be priced at about MYR m per unit, whereas the garden villas will be priced at MYR2-2.5m per unit. Figure 9: Embun Kemensah NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 6

7 Trio is a larger-scale freehold mixed development project worth a GDV of MYR1.5bn. It is located in Section 13, Shah Alam, along Jalan Monfort. The site is accessible via major highways such as the Guthrie Corridor Expressway (GCE) and the New Klang Valley Expressway (NKVE). Trio comprises a retail podium, office blocks and service apartments. The retail component has a net lettable area (NLA) of about 800,000 sqf. Titijaya is currently negotiating with some anchor tenants for the retail mall, while waiting for the final approval from the authorities. We see pent-up demand in the area, as it is surrounded by established residential precincts and is close to the Hicom-Glenmarie Industrial Park. Paramount (PAR MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR1.71) is also currently developing its KDU university campus (Utropolis) there. As Titijaya plans to launch Trio in 2015, we believe its competition with Paramount will not be head-on. Figure 10: Trio We also like Titijaya s industrial project the 42-acre Seri Alam Industrial Park, of which vacant land plots in Phase 1 and 2 are now being sold. The site is near Port Klang and Shah Alam, and is mainly in the industrial zone. It is also close to Mah Sing (MSGB MK, NEUTRAL, TP: MYR2.42) s Aman Perdana township. Including the infrastructure works, the land parcels measuring acres per plot are priced at MYR50 psf. The selling price has appreciated by 43% from MYR35 psf since it was first launched in 2010/11. Due to its strategic location, about 95% of Seri Alam s land plots in Phase 1 have been booked. The subsequent phases of the industrial park will be released this year, comprising some residential units as well as factories with a total GDV of MYR432m. Some one-and-half- and two-and-a-half-storey semidetached factories are also being built for sale at the Zone Innovation Park at Sungai Kapar Indah Phase 1 and 2, which is next to the Seri Alam Industrial Park. These factories are priced at MYR2-3m each. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 7

8 Figure 11: Titijaya s Sungai Kapar Indah Industrial Park Figure 12: Titijaya s upcoming projects NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 8

9 Land banking strategy. Apart from the current and upcoming projects, management has been actively looking for landbank opportunities. Besides further penetration into the Klang Valley, Penang Island is also one of Titijaya s targeted areas. If some of its deals materialise, we believe the company s RNAV is likely to be substantially boosted. IPO proceeds. Titijaya will raise MYR122.6m from its IPO. Of this amount, 40.4% (or MYR49.5m) will be utilised as working capital, about 32.1% (or MYR39.3m) will be used to repay bank borrowings and advances from the previous shareholder, and 24.5% (or MYR30m) will be the war chest for land banking. The remaining 3.1% (or MYR3.8m) is for listing expenses. Figure 13: Utilisation of IPO proceeds Key Risks Delays in approvals and launches. Delays in project launches will cause our earnings forecasts to deviate, as it will change the timing of progress billings. For instance, the Trio project was previously delayed, due to long approval process as well as some amendments to enhance the layout and hence project GDV. We have factored in the earnings impact of Trio according to the new timeline. Macroeconomic risk. The macroeconomic environment looks increasingly challenging. At end-july, Fitch Ratings downgraded Malaysia s outlook amidst deteriorating public finances. The recent increase in petrol price as well as the subsidy cut in sugar are expected to fuel inflationary pressure. This will likely hurt consumer sentiment. Competition from other developers. Competition is generally the common risk that most developers experience. A few of Titijaya s projects are close to some other developers developments. These include its Embun Kemensah project, which is located in Melawati. Projects from other developers in the surrounding area include Sunway s Montana and Nadayu Properties Nadayu Melawati. Furthermore, Titijaya s current ongoing Subang Parkhomes project is close to Tropicana (TRCB MK, BUY, TP: MYR2.19) s Metropark development. Nevertheless, the take-up rate of Phase 2 of the former has reached 50%, and is likely to increase further as construction progresses. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 9

10 Forecasts and Valuations Titijaya achieved a 3-year net profit CAGR of 24.3% for FY10-13, thanks to the successful sales of its past projects. Its track record for property sales is consistent, hovering between MYR m annually over the past three years. Our property sales forecast for FY14 is MYR350m-400m, due to MYR1bn worth of project launches during the year. Some sales are expected to spillover into the following year, as the signing of sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) will likely take some time. Figure 14: Historical property sales trend MYRm FY11 FY12 FY13 data 68% and 12% earnings growth for FY The weaker net profit in FY11 was largely due to a slowdown in launches in 2008 during the global subprime crisis. Going forward, we estimate earnings growth of 68% for FY14 and 12% for FY15. While its near-term earnings will be underpinned by unbilled sales of about MYR500m, the company s future net profit will be driven by more aggressive property launches this year. Titijaya s gross margin has been expanding since FY09, hitting 48% in FY13F. This above-industry margin was largely due to the company s cheap land cost (for the Subang Parkhomes and The Galleria projects), as well as in the increase in selling prices. Moving forward, we expect gross margin to normalise to about 40-45%, as the spike in FY13 proforma earnings was largely attributed to the handover of Phase 1 of Subang Parkhomes. FY14 earnings will also benefit from the handover of Phase 2 of the same project, as well as handover of The Galleria and 3Elements Phase 1. Titijaya has a dividend policy of 30%. This translates into a DPS of 7-8 sen, representing a decent yield of 4-5% based on the issue price of MYR1.50. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 10

11 Figure 15: Historical trend for gross margin MYRm % % 50% % 31.8% 39.4% 40% 30% % 20% 50 10% 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Revenue Gross profit Gross margin 0% data Figure 16: Titijaya s land cost Landbank development Date of acquisition Landbank location Land area (sqf) Purchase price Land cost psf (MYR) (MYR m) Completed projects Mutiara Bukit Raja 2001 Klang 1,584, E-Kiara Serviced Apartments 2003 Subang Jaya 72, Klang Sentral Commercial Centre 2003 Klang 377, Mutiara Point Business Park (Phase 1) 2003 Klang 141, Casa Tiara Serviced Suites 2004 Subang Jaya 144, Tiara Square Business Centre 2005 Subang Jaya 329, First Subang 2006 Subang Jaya 66, One SOHO (formerly Subang SOHO) 2006 Subang Jaya 69, Ongoing projects The Galleria 2002 Klang Sentral 172, Zone Innovation Sg. Kapar Indah 2004 Klang 789, (Phase 1 & 2) Subang Parkhomes (Phase 1 & 2) 2005 Subang Jaya 434, Seri Alam Industrial Park (Phase 1 & 2) 2006 Klang 1,829, Elements (Phase 1 & 2) 2010 Puchong 263, Upcoming projects Embun Kemensah 2003 Ulu Kelang 641, Trio 2003 Shah Alam 701, Mutiara Point Business Park (Phase 2) 2003 Klang 99, Subsequent phases of Zone Innovation 2004 Klang 455, Park Subsequent phases of Seri Alam Industrial 2006 Klang 3,397, Park H Ara Damansara 263, data NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 11

12 Valuations We value Titijaya at MYR1.75, a 35% discount to RNAV. We think this is reasonable, given the negative market sentiment on the property sector currently following the 2014 Budget announcement and the Government s cooling measures for the industry. The listing P/E of 6x on FY14F earnings is undemanding. Figure 17: Titijaya s RNAV Projects GDV (MYRm) Effective stake NPV (MYRm) Seri Alam Ph % 25.3 Zone Innovation Park % 8.6 Trio Shah Alam 1, % Embun Kemensah % 26.6 H2O Ara Damansara % 66.6 Mutiara Point Business Park Ph % 3.5 Klang Sentral Serviced Apartments % 89.5 Unbilled sales 90.8 Total Shareholders' Funds Total RNAV Share cap RNAV/share 2.68 Discount 35% Fair value (MYR) 1.75, RHB estimates NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 12

13 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (MYRm) Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F Jun-15F Total turnover Operating costs (94) (72) (100) (179) (198) Gross profit Gen & admin expenses (13) (16) (23) (44) (48) Other operating income Operating EBITDA Depreciation of fixed assets 0 0 (0) (0) (0) Operating EBIT Other recurring income Interest expense (4) (1) (1) (4) (5) Pre-tax profit Taxation (8) (9) (19) (34) (38) Minority interests (1) (1) Profit after tax & minorities Net income to ord equity Recurring net profit Source: RHB estimates, company data Cashflow (MYRm) Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F Jun-15F Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital - 7 (432) (43) (40) Other operating cashflow - (22) (20) (37) (42) Operating cashflow - 29 (380) Interest paid Tax paid Cashflow from operations - 29 (379) Capex - 0 (4) (50) (50) Other investing cash flow Cashflow from investing activities - 2 (2) (50) (50) Dividends paid - (4) 0 (25) (29) Increase in debt - (14) Other financing cashflow - (17) Cashflow from financing activities - (35) Cash at beginning of period Total cash generated - (3) Forex effects Implied cash at end of period Source: RHB estimates, company data NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 13

14 Balance sheet (MYRm) Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F Jun-15F Total cash and equivalent Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets Total current assets Total investments Tangible fixed assets Intangible assets Total other assets Total non-current assets Total assets ,002 Short-term debt Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Total long-term debt Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities Share capital Retained earnings reserve Other reserves - 47 (35) (35) (35) Shareholders' equity Minority interests (1) (2) Other equity Total equity Total liabilities & equity ,002 Source: RHB estimates, company data Key ratios Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F Jun-15F Revenue growth 35% -14% 64% 73% 12% Operating profit growth -9% 28% 65% 74% 13% Ner profit growth -17% 52% 53% 68% 12% Bv per share growth % 50% Operating margin 25% 37% 37% 37% 38% Net profit margin 16% 29% 27% 26% 26% Return on average assets - 11% 9% 12% 10% Return on average equity - 36% 27% 34% 28% Net debt to equity - 23% 22% 6% 1% DPS (MYR) Recurrent cash flow per share (MYR) (1.11) Source: RHB estimates NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 14

15 SWOT Analysis Established presence in Klang and Subang Experienced management team Competition from other developers Potential land banking deals in the Klang Valley and Penang Island Lack of anchor landbank for township developments Company Profile Titijaya is a Klang Valley-based developer founded in the 1990s by Tan Sri Lim Soon Peng. The company has completed more than MYR1bn worth of properties, mainly in the medium to medium-high-end segments in Klang and Subang. NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION OUTSIDE MALAYSIA 15

16 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer This report is not for distribution outside Malaysia. All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. 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