RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) 25 March 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS
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1 MARKET DATELINE MALAYSIA EQUITY Investment Research The Research Team Sector Update Insurance NEUTRAL Key Points In BNM, IMF Reports The insurance and takaful industry saw a boost in profitability in 2012, spurred by improving premiums growth and healthier combined ratios in the general insurance/takaful sectors. Despite notable increases in equity exposure and concerns on interest rate risk, insurers risk exposure remains reasonable. BNM intends to tighten scrutiny of the insurance/takaful industry, as recommended by the IMF Country Report. We remain NEUTRAL on the sector. Better The life insurance and family takaful sector reported a 38.2% increase in net income or excess income over outgo, backed by premiums/contributions growth of 11.2%. Meanwhile, the general insurance and takaful segment s operating profits surged by 72.6% to RM2.9bn on the back of premiums/contributions growth of 11.1%. The general insurance and takaful industry also benefited from a low combined ratio of 96.9% (vs 104.7% in 2011). Regulations tighten their grip. The industry s capital adequacy ratios (CAR) leveled at 222.3% (vs 222.5% in 2011), well above Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM)'s supervisory target capital level (STCL) requirement of 130%. The IMF Country Report acknowledges the strength and comprehensiveness of the local insurance regulatory measures versus the international framework. Meanwhile, the country s cross-border operations are still small relative to the industry, which we believe may have prompted BNM to relax cross-border financial activities for resident insurers and takaful operators. The central bank intends to enhance the existing prudential requirements with the Financial Services Act (FSA), as well as other measures which may include containment of systemic risks and cross-border risks. This should boost the sustainability of the industry, which being liberalised. NEUTRAL. We retain NEUTRAL on the sector, with our Top Picks being Syarikat Takaful for its exposure to the takaful industry, and LPI Capital for its robust business model and solid underwriting strength. Source: Company data, RHBRI estimates 1
2 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS... 2 HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE FINANCIAL STABILITY AND PAYMENTS SYSTEM REPORTS ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM IMF COUNTRY REPORT
3 11.0% 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% -1.0% -3.0% -5.0% 65.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE FINANCIAL STABILITY AND PAYMENTS SYSTEM REPORTS 2012 Improvement in premiums growth and combined ratios for GI boosted profitability Rebound in profitability. Malaysia's insurance industry saw a solid rebound in profitability in terms of net income (net underwriting and investment income). Based on BNM's Financial Stability and Payment Systems Report 2012, the life insurance and family takaful sector reported a 38.2% increase in excess income over outgo to RM17.6bn on the back of premiums/contributions growth of 11.2%. The general insurance and takaful sector's operating profits accelerated by a higher 72.6% to RM2.9bn, on the back of premiums/contributions growth of 11.1%. The general insurance and takaful industry also benefited from a low combined ratio of 96.9% (vs 104.7% in 2011). Figure 1: Life insurance (LI) and general insurance (GI) industry premiums p LI Net Premium GI Earned Premium LI Premium Growth (%) 7.0% 2.3% 5.8% 10.0% 4.7% 9.2% GI Premium Growth (%) 2.9% 2.0% 8.8% 8.1% 4.9% 10.5% Source: BNM, PIAM Figure 2: Family takaful and general takaful industry contributions p Family Takaful Contributions General Takaful Contributions Family Contributions Growth (%) 60.3% 19.3% 14.5% 24.7% 9.2% 23.3% General Contributions Growth (%) 13.3% 18.1% 29.9% 16.2% 17.5% Source: BNM, MTA 3
4 500.0% 400.0% 300.0% 200.0% 100.0% 0.0% % RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) Figure 3: Life insurance (LI) and general insurance (GI) industry profitability p LI Excess Income over Outgo GI Operating Profit LI Premium Growth (%) 17.2% -45.2% 50.0% 16.1% -11.6% 36.2% GI Premium Growth (%) -8.3% -54.4% 202.6% 3.3% -23.6% 80.0% Source: BNM, PIAM Figure 4: Family takaful and general takaful industry profitability p Family Takaful Contributions General Takaful Contributions Family Contributions Growth (%) 69.9% 7.1% 14.1% -14.2% 9.6% 51.9% General Contributions Growth (%) -68.4% 426.1% 53.5% -6.5% 16.8% 26.5% Source: BNM, MTA Industry CAR ratios remain robust despite stronger premiums growth Capitalisation remains robust. The industry s capital adequacy ratios (CAR) was levelled at 222.3% (vs 222.5% in 2011), well above BNM's supervisory target capital level (STCL) requirement of 130%. This was partially sustained by higher retained profits which boosted total capital available (TCA). In addition, BNM has made it mandatory for insurance companies under its purview to have CAR exceeding the company's own internal target capital level (ITCL), based on its risk exposure, at all times. BNM also mentioned that insurance risk remained the largest risk component to the ITCL, comprising 50.7% of total capital required (TCR), while market risk accounted for 30.6%. 4
5 Figure 5: Industry CAR trend Source: BNM TCA (LHS) TCR (LHS) CAR (%) (RHS) (%) The increased allocation for equity investments did not adversely raise market risk Slight increase in equity exposure. Equities investment increased from 18% of total investment in 2011 to 19% in Private debt securities (PDS) still accounted for the bulk of the conventional insurers and takaful funds, at 37.9% of total assets in 2012 (vs 37.3% in 2011 and 17.1% of Malaysian government bonds). Nevertheless, the PDS are considered low-risk due to the concentration within high-grade ratings or at 'AA' and above. The overall market risk exposure of insurers improved slightly to 12.2% of the capital base (vs 12.6% in 2011) despite the higher equity exposure. Equity and interest rate risk collectively formed 83.3% of total market risk exposure. Life insurers investment yields higher than average Life insurers investment yields rise. Investment yields among the life insurers rose to 7.3% in 2012 compared with the historical five-year average of 5%-6%. BNM was concerned that the prolonged low interest rate environment may prompt life insurers to hold more capital, which was the case for some global insurers. Future claims exposure could have heightened when insurance funds were left with no choice but to invest in low-yield fixed income securities, thus creating a mismatch when the insurance products were priced under the assumption of higher returns. Fortunately, the increased total contributions from investment-linked (IL) and other forms of non-participating products which are less capital-intensive, as well as the healthy investment yields helped to limit exposure to interest rate risks. We expect this trend to continue moving forward. 5
6 Figure 6: Composition of LI products Source: BNM Low retention in large, specialised business classes. We continue to see low retention levels for business lines with lumpy, large contract sizes. For instance, the aviation, oil and gas (O&G) and engineering class of premiums saw latest reported reinsurance ratios at 94%, 93% and 56% respectively. Retention levels for the motor premiums lines remained high at around 90%. Figure 7: Reinsurance ratios by GI business segments Source: BNM 6
7 MORE HIGHLIGHTS FROM IMF COUNTRY REPORT BNM is expected to enhance prudential measures Tightening capital requirements. Moving forward, we believe BNM will enhance the CAR requirements. We expect the central bank to expand the capital adequacy assessments to insurance groups via the provisions in the Financial Services Act (FSA). This is a positive move as the current Risk-Based Capital (RBC) framework only considers company-specific risks. Also, the IMF in its Country Report said the current RBC framework may not adequately address interdependencies between risk categories. BNM recognizes this and may be expected to formulate more guidelines to fully capture such correlation effects in order to prevent spillovers and systemic risks. We believe any cross-border crisis can be easily contained given consistent supervision by BNM as well as the relatively small size of the industry Cross-border operations remain small. Malaysia's domestic insurers' cross border operations comprised assets of approximately RM959.9m in 2012, which translated to 0.4% of total insurance industry assets. We note that this was a contraction of about 2% from 2011's figures of RM979.8m, which represented about 0.5% of total industry assets. The cross-border operations spanned to only three countries, compared to four countries as at 2011 (which were countries within the range of Malaysia's borders, namely Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and Brunei). Only four insurance groups have such operations, as BNM currently restricts certain forms of cross-border operations. The sizes of these remain insignificant, at <8% of the total industry premiums (as of 2011). We believe this could be part of the reason why BNM had relaxed the limitations on resident insurers or takaful operators to carry out cross-border financial activities, as long as the investment is within the capital risk requirements. Given these reasons, we believe any risk of cross-border crisis is relatively contained. However, we are not discounting the possibility that BNM may still propose guidelines for an official contingency plan, as recommended by the IMF Country Report. 7
8 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. Further, RHB, its affiliates and related companies do and seek to do business with the company(ies) covered in this research report and may from time to time act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment in securities of such company(ies), may sell them or buy them from customers on a principal basis and may also perform or seek to perform significant investment banking, advisory or underwriting services for or relating to such company(ies), as well as solicit such investment, advisory or other services from any entity mentioned in this research report. RHB and its employees and/or agents do not accept any liability, be it directly, indirectly or consequential losses, loss of profits or damages that may arise from any reliance based on this report or further communication given in relation to this report. The term RHB shall denote where applicable, the relevant entity distributing the report in the particular jurisdiction mentioned specifically herein below and shall refer to RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd, its holding company, affiliates, subsidiaries and related companies. All Rights Reserved. This report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior consent of RHB and RHB accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Malaysia This report is published and distributed in Malaysia by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd ( M), Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre, Jalan Tun Razak, Kuala Lumpur, a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Investment Bank Berhad (RHBIB), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. As of 20 Mar 2013, RHBIB does not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 20 Mar 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - Singapore This report is published and distributed in Singapore by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd (Reg. No N), a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia ( OSKIB ) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited and is a subsidiary of OSKIB, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 20 Mar 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 20 Mar 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - 8
9 Special Distribution by RHB Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd. Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited ( OSKSHK ), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia ( OSKIB ), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. OSKSHK, OSKIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. OSKSHK, OSKIB and/or other affiliates may, within the past 12 months, have received compensation and/or within the next 3 months seek to obtain compensation for investment banking services from the subject company. Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. OSKSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia, a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL, a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Research Office RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre Jalan Tun Razak Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel : +(60) Fax : +(60) OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd. 12 th Floor World-Wide House 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel : +(852) Fax : +(852) DMG & Partners Securities Pte. Ltd. 10 Collyer Quay #09-08 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore Tel : +(65) Fax : +(65) Jakarta Shanghai Phnom Penh PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia Plaza CIMB Niaga 14th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.25 Jakarta Selatan 12920, Indonesia Tel : +(6221) Fax : +(6221) OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. Suite 4005, CITIC Square 1168 Nanjing West Road Shanghai China Tel : +(8621) Fax : +(8621) Bangkok OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL 10th Floor,Sathorn Square Office Tower 98, North Sathorn Road,Silom Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel: +(66) Fax : +(66) OSK Indochina Securities Limited No. 1-3, Street 271 Sangkat Toeuk Thla, Khan Sen Sok Phnom Penh Cambodia Tel: +(855) Fax: +(855)
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May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Vol m Company Update, NetDragon (777 HK) BUY Technology - Internet Target Price: HKD14.72 Market Cap: USD796m Price: HKD12.22 Partnering with Amazon and Microsoft
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Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Vol m Company Update, Malaysia Building Society (MBS MK) Neutral (from Buy) Financial - Diversified Financial Services Target Price: MYR3.10 Market Cap: USD1,544m
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May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Vol m Results Review, Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB) Buy (from Sell) Consumer Non-cyclical - Food Target Price: THB38.0 Market Cap: USD7,900m Price: THB30.3 Earnings
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Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Vol m Briefing Note, UEM Sunrise (UEMS MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR2.73 Market Cap: USD2,866m Price: MYR2.10 Mega Projects
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Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol m Results Review, 23 October 2015 Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) Sell (from Neutral) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Target Price: SGD2.00 Market Cap:
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Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Vol m Company Update, 28 September 2015 Sheng Siong (SSG SP) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Target Price: SGD0.97 Market Cap: USD882m Price: SGD0.84
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