Buy (from Sell) Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB) Earnings Recovery To Kick In

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1 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Vol m Results Review, Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB) Buy (from Sell) Consumer Non-cyclical - Food Target Price: THB38.0 Market Cap: USD7,900m Price: THB30.3 Earnings Recovery To Kick In Macro Risks Growth Value Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) CPF s recurring THB0.9bn loss for 1Q13 was generally within our expectations. We lower our FY13 GPM estimate by ~1ppt, which cuts our earnings forecast by 33% to THB6.4bn. However, we believe the worst is over as the company fared better compared with its THB2.3bn loss in 4Q12, and think the group is on track to recover in 2Q and 3Q. We lift our SOP-based TP to THB38.0. Upgrade to BUY. 1Q13 revenue up 19% y-o-y to THB87bn. Most of the growth came from the consolidation of CP Pokphand s (CPP, NR) financials over a three-month period in 1Q13, compared with just two months in 1Q12. Its organic revenue grew by around 4% y-o-y to THB52bn GPM dips 4.6ppt y-o-y to 9.0%. This came in below our 11.0% estimate due to the outbreak of the Early Mortality Syndrome (EMS), which badly affected its high-margin shrimp business. During its results briefing, CPF s management said shrimp production is likely to return to normal by 3Q13. Meanwhile, poultry and swine prices recovered to THB48/kg and THB66/kg respectively (4Q12: THB39/kg and THB53/kg respectively) this month. Nonetheless, we believe that the increase was partly induced by higher raw material prices. Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 731m/24.9m Cons. Upside (%) 24.8 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) 50.0 Shareholders (%) Charoen Pokphand Group 49.9 Vanguard Group 1.1 Fine-tuning estimates. We lower our FY13 GPM assumption by ~1ppt to 11.3%, which accordingly pares down our recurring earnings estimate by 33% to THB6.4bn. That said, earnings are likely to improve to THB1.3bn, THB3.8bn and THB2.1bn in the upcoming three quarters. Upgrade to BUY, with higher THB38.0 TP. Since the worst may be over for CPF s farm business and a recovery is imminent, we lift our TP to THB38.0, based on SOP valuation. We value the group s 33% stake in CP ALL (BUY, THB68.0) at THB26.0 per share following our recent upgrade on this company, and its integrated food business at THB12.0 per share, pegged to an 11x FY14F P/E. Shariah compliant Tan Han Meng, CFA, CPA , hanmeng.tan@sg.oskgroup.com See important disclosures at the end of this report Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 189, , , , ,705 Reported net profit (THBm) 13,563 16,117 18,790 8,231 13,544 Recurring net profit (THBm) 12,601 14,759 4,108 6,355 13,544 Recurring net profit growth (%) (72.2) Core EPS (THB) DPS (THB) Dividend Yield (%) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) na EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (%) (49.4) (33.0) Powered by Enhanced Datasystems EFA TM Platform

2 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Other highlights Feed business in Thailand. Domestic feed revenue dipped by 8% y-o-y to THB12.6bn as demand was negatively affected by soft meat prices, and high selling prices that were driven by rising raw material costs. Revenue from China up 7% y-o-y. The single-digit growth was due to a general slowdown in the Chinese economy following recent government measures to cut down on extravagant entertainment activities. Also, following the recent bird flu incident in China, the company is making efforts to reduce its feed exposure to the poultry segment. Weak margins in Vietnam. CPP s overall GPM dipped 3.3ppt to 12.3% mainly due to weak results in Vietnam as meat prices could take longer time to recover. Divesting non-core assets to reduce gearing. Borrowings increased by 11% q-o-q to THB162bn in 1Q13. To reduce its gearing, the company may look to reduce its stake in CPP from 74% to 51%. However, there are still concerns that CPP is currently trading at HKD0.82, which is lower than CPF s offer price of HKD0.90 in On CP ALL, the company views its 33% stake as a strategic asset, and hence has no plan to divest its equity. Update on pork prices. Domestic pork prices are at around THB66/kg currently (4Q12: THB53/kg). Despite the increase, we expect margins to be subdued as the production cost is estimated at THB58-THB67/kg. Update on chicken prices. Chicken prices are around THB48/kg (4Q12: THB39/kg) with the production cost estimated at THB37-THB43/kg. Figure 1: 1Q13 results FYEDec (THBm) 1Q13 1Q12 y-o-y 4Q12 q-o-q Revenue 87,424 73,480 19% 94,220-7% COGS (79,532) (63,464) 25% (86,821) -8% Gross profit 7,892 10,016-21% 7,400 7% Other income % % Distribution costs (3,770) (2,932) 29% (4,199) -10% Admin expenses (4,462) (3,781) 18% (5,046) -12% Other operating expenses - (118) Nm 257 Nm Opg profit 55 3,610-98% (879) -106% Finance costs (1,600) (1,175) 36% (1,894) -16% FV gain/(loss) (111) (12) Nm (140) -20% Associate income 1, % % Other gains (L) 1,876 9,713-81% 2,549-26% PBT 1,617 13,126-88% % Tax (281) (587) -52% % MI (310) (426) -27% (506) -39% Net profit 1,026 12,113-92% % Net profit-recurring (850) 2,400 Nm (2,311) Nm Gross margin 9.0% 13.6% 7.9% Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates Figure 2: Earnings revision FYE Dec (THBm) 2013E 2014E Old New Chg % Old New Chg % Revenue 399, ,998 0% 443, ,705 0% Gross profit 49,604 45,289-9% 57,261 57,260 0% Net profit 9,528 6,355-33% 13,402 13,544 1% Figure 3: Quarterly estimates* FYE Dec (THB m) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13E 3Q13E 4Q13E Revenue 73,480 92,255 97,220 94,220 87, , ,000 98,687 y-o-y change 61% 73% 79% 79% 19% 13% 13% 5% Reported net profit 12,113 4,035 2, ,026 1,278 3,809 2,118 y-o-y change 229% (17%) (53%) (90%) (92%) (68%) 58% 791% Net profit -recurring 2,400 2,719 1,300 (2,311) (850) 1,278 3,809 2,118 y-o-y change (19%) (44%) (74%) Nm Nm (53%) 193% Nm * Acceptable range at +/- 10% See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

3 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13F 3Q13F Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 1/1/ /01/ /01/2555 9/2/ /02/2555 8/3/ /03/2555 3/4/ /04/2555 3/5/ /05/ /05/ /06/ /06/2555 9/7/ /07/2555 7/8/ /08/2555 3/9/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/2555 6/11/ /11/ /11/ /14/ /27/2555 4/1/ /01/2555 1/2/ /02/2555 1/3/ /03/ /03/ /04/2555 2/5/ /05/2555 1/6/ /06/2555 2/7/ /07/ /07/2555 8/8/ /08/2555 6/9/ /09/2555 4/10/ /10/2555 2/11/ /11/ /7/ /24/2555 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Figure 4 : Pork prices in Thailand Pork THB/kg Figure 5 : Chicken prices in Thailand Chicken THB/kg comparable 2013 Comparable 2012 Comparable Figure 6: Corn prices in Thailand 12.0 Corn THB/kg Figure 7: Soybean prices in Thailand 26.0 Soybean THB/kg Figure 8: Blended meat: corn price ratio (with a 9M lag) vs Thai GPM % 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% Blended meat:corn px (3Q lag) ratio TH GPM See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

4 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Valuation and Risks Figure 9: Sum-of-parts valuation FYE Dec (THBm) 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E EBIT 17,243 25,661 29,013 32,794 36,911 41,390 43,459 EBIT Gth % 30% 49% 13% 13% 13% 12% 5% Tax rate % 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% NOPLAT 13,967 20,785 23,501 26,563 29,898 33,526 35,202 +Depn & Amortn 3,619 3,995 4,796 5,437 5,949 6,360 6,360 +(Inc)/Dec in WC 6,298 14,176 6,234 6,128 6,637 7,182 (2,069) -Capex (5,500) (8,000) (8,000) (8,000) (8,000) (8,000) (6,360) FCFF 18,384 30,956 26,531 30,128 34,484 39,067 33,132 Disc. FCFF 184, , , , ,923 99,182 65,205 Disc. TV 596, , , , , , ,068 Net Cash (Debt) (157,662) Others Fair valuation 614,522 No. of shares (m) 8,986 Fair value/share (THB) 68 DCF inputs Risk Free Rate 4.0% Beta 0.8 Cost of Debt (b/tax) 4.0% Cost of Equity 9.8% Equity risk premium 7.0% Tax rate % 19% Current Beta 0.8 WACC 8.5% Current Debt/Equity Ratio 0% FY15-18F Growth Rate 12.7% Target Debt/Equity Ratio 25% Terminal Growth Rate 5.0% Items Method Valuatin THBm 1) 32.97% stake in CPALL DCF 202,607 2) Ex-CPALL FY14 recurring profit 11x P/E 92,323 of THB8.4bn Sum 294,930 Total shares(m) 7,743 Per share 38 The key risks. The potential downside risks to our BUY call are: i) a sharp spike in the prices of input such as corn and soybean meal, ii) the company s inability to increase selling prices due to competition, and iii) natural disasters and outbreak of animal diseases. See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

5 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover 189, , , , ,705 Cost of sales (159,578) (172,488) (315,838) (354,709) (386,445) Gross profit 29,471 33,612 41,337 45,289 57,260 Gen & admin expenses (6,671) (7,372) (15,176) (16,800) (18,192) Selling expenses (10,025) (11,005) (18,084) (18,400) (20,410) Other operating costs (709) (532) - (800) (887) Operating profit 12,066 14,703 8,077 9,289 17,770 Operating EBITDA 16,864 19,442 15,414 18,007 26,899 Depreciation of fixed assets (4,798) (4,739) (7,337) (8,718) (9,129) Operating EBIT 12,066 14,703 8,077 9,289 17,770 Net income from investments 2,511 3,863 4,138 5,297 6,206 Other recurring income 1,522 1,360 2,995 3,354 3,721 Interest expense (1,824) (2,432) (6,377) (6,334) (6,290) Exchange gains 1, Exceptional income - net 962 1,358 14,682 1,876 - Pre-tax profit 16,247 19,135 23,694 13,661 21,585 Taxation (2,388) (2,898) (2,675) (2,711) (4,965) Minority interests (296) (120) (2,229) (2,719) (3,077) Profit after tax & minorities 13,563 16,117 18,790 8,231 13,544 Reported net profit 13,563 16,117 18,790 8,231 13,544 Recurring net profit 12,601 14,759 4,108 6,355 13,544 Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Operating profit 12,066 14,703 8,077 9,289 17,770 Depreciation & amortisation 4,798 4,739 7,337 8,718 9,129 Change in working capital (7,608) (76) (27,223) (7,700) (7,477) Other operating cash flow 4,537 3,509 9,304 9,530 10,811 Operating cash flow 13,793 22,876 (2,505) 19,837 30,234 Interest received Interest paid (1,824) (2,432) (6,377) (6,334) (6,290) Tax paid (2,388) (2,898) (2,675) (2,711) (4,965) Cash flow from operations 9,694 17,795 (11,378) 10,854 18,988 Capex (6,460) (10,191) (19,946) (13,000) (13,000) Other new investments (1,648) (4,106) (39,726) - - Cash flow from investing activities (8,107) (14,298) (59,673) (13,000) (13,000) Dividends paid (6,656) (7,653) (8,863) (8,517) (3,178) Increase in debt 4,212 23,089 61,070 (1,000) (1,000) Other financing cash flow (1,955) (2,414) (5,758) - - Cash flow from financing activities (4,399) 13,022 46,449 (9,517) (4,178) Cash at beginning of period 10,523 7,761 24,341 12,258 1,709 Total cash generated (2,812) 16,519 (24,602) (11,664) 1,810 Forex effects Implied cash at end of period 7,761 24, ,519 See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

6 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total cash and equivalents 7,761 24,341 12,258 1,709 2,805 Inventories 33,863 35,673 48,334 54,282 59,139 Accounts receivable 15,385 15,692 23,279 26,070 28,919 Other current assets 1,962 2,721 25,330 28,367 31,467 Total current assets 58,971 78, , , ,329 Tangible fixed assets 47,142 52,025 90,812 95,094 98,965 Total other assets 20,207 29, , , ,530 Total non-current assets 67,349 81, , , ,496 Total assets 126, , , , ,825 Short-term debt 18,139 28,584 62,097 61,097 60,097 Accounts payable 9,707 11,733 20,620 23,158 25,229 Other current liabilities 4,981 5,755 12,502 8,701 13,551 Total current liabilities 32,827 46,071 95,218 92,955 98,877 Total long-term debt 28,511 40,866 84,044 84,044 84,044 Other liabilities 3,880 6,448 10,501 10,501 10,501 Total non-current liabilities 32,391 47,314 94,545 94,545 94,545 Total liabilities 65,217 93, , , ,423 Share capital 58,015 63, , , ,347 Shareholders' equity 58,015 63, , , ,347 Minority interests 3,088 2,922 16,259 18,978 22,055 Other equity Total equity 61,103 66, , , ,402 Total liabilities & equity 126, , , , ,825 Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Revenue growth (%) Operating profit growth (%) (45.1) Net profit growth (%) (56.2) 64.5 EPS growth (%) (56.2) 64.5 Bv per share growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share (1.47) See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

7 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) SWOT Analysis An integrated food producer with a global presence Enjoys market dominance in in key domestic businesses A top three animal feed producer with a 1%-3% market share No. 1 poultry and shrimp producer in Thailand Spike in raw material prices such as corn and soybean meal Growing meat demand in emerging countries such as China and Vietnam Expansion into processed food products helps to reduce volatility from farm business Farm business is highly volatile A price taker in Thailand P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE % 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% % 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF), a fully-integrated food producer involved in animal feed manufacturing, farming and food processing, is focused on building a global consumer products brand. It is estimated to be a top-three global animal feed producer with annual capacity of some 20m tonnes. See important disclosures at the end of this report 7

8 24.0 NR Charoen Pokphand (CPF TB) Recommendation Chart Recommendations & Target Price Price Close Buy Neutral Sell Trading Take Profit 0 Buy May-08 Aug-09 Nov-10 Mar-12 Source: OSK-DMG Estimates, Bloomberg Not Rated Date Recommendation Target Price Price Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Sell Source : OSK-DMG Estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 8

9 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. It is intended for circulation to the clients of RHB and its related companies. Any recommendation contained in this report does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This report is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice to independently evaluate the particular investments and strategies. RHB, its affiliates and related companies, their respective directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may own or have positions in securities of the company(ies) covered in this research report or any securities related thereto, and may from time to time add to, or dispose off, or may be materially interested in any such securities. 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DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd may have received compensation from the company covered in this report for its corporate finance or its dealing activities; this report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 13 May 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd do not have proprietary positions in the securities covered in this report, except for: a) - As of 13 May 2013, none of the analysts who covered the securities in this report has an interest in such securities, except for: a) - Special Distribution by RHB Where the research report is produced by an RHB entity (excluding DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd) and distributed in Singapore, it is only distributed to "Institutional Investors", "Expert Investors" or "Accredited Investors" as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an "Institutional Investor", "Expert Investor" or "Accredited Investor", this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd. Hong Kong This report is published and distributed in Hong Kong by RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited ( RHBSHK ) (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Limited), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as RHBIB ), which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. RHBSHK, RHBIB and/or other affiliates may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. 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10 Risk Disclosure Statements The prices of securities fluctuate, sometimes dramatically. The price of a security may move up or down, and may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. RHBSHK does not maintain a predetermined schedule for publication of research and will not necessarily update this report Indonesia This report is published and distributed in Indonesia by PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Thailand This report is published and distributed in Thailand by RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL), a subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia, which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad, which in turn is a wholly-owned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad. Other Jurisdictions In any other jurisdictions, this report is intended to be distributed to qualified, accredited and professional investors, in compliance with the law and regulations of the jurisdictions. DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Research Office RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre Jalan Tun Razak Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel : +(60) Fax : +(60) RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd. (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd.) 12th Floor World-Wide House 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel : +(852) Fax : +(852) DMG & Partners Securities Pte. Ltd. 10 Collyer Quay #09-08 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore Tel : +(65) Fax : +(65) Jakarta Shanghai Phnom Penh PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia) Plaza CIMB Niaga 14th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.25 Jakarta Selatan 12920, Indonesia Tel : +(6221) Fax : +(6221) RHB OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. (formerly known as OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd.) Suite 4005, CITIC Square 1168 Nanjing West Road Shanghai China Tel : +(8621) Fax : +(8621) Bangkok RHB OSK Indochina Securities Limited (formerly known as OSK Indochina Securities Limited) No. 1-3, Street 271 Sangkat Toeuk Thla, Khan Sen Sok Phnom Penh Cambodia Tel: +(855) Fax: +(855) RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL) 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 98, North Sathorn Road,Silom Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel: +(66) Fax : +(66)

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