Buy (Maintained) Signs Offshore Contracts Worth SGD368m
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- Charlotte Crawford
- 5 years ago
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1 Jul-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Vol m Company Update, Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Target Price: SGD12.50 Market Cap: USD15,705m Price: SGD10.80 Signs Offshore Contracts Worth SGD368m Macro Risks Growth Value Price Close Relative to Straits Times Index (RHS) Keppel announced yesterday that it has secured contracts worth a total of SGD368m. Keppel Shipyard signed a contract for the conversion of an FPSO, while Keppel Singmarine has inked a contract to carry out fabrication and outfitting works for a subsea construction vessel (SCV). We note that the SCV s high specifications are in direct competition with that of Vard s advanced designs. Maintain BUY, SGD12.50 TP Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (SGD/USD) m/25.2m Cons. Upside (%) 15.7 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (SGD) Free float (%) 68 Share outstanding (m) 1,816 Shareholders (%) Temasek 21.0 Aberdeen 5.7 Blackrock 5.0 Share Performance (%) YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m Absolute (3.6) 1.5 (0.5) (2.8) 3.8 Relative (6.4) 2.7 (3.1) (6.0) 0.5 Shariah compliant Lee Yue Jer, CFA yuejer.lee@sg.oskgroup.com Converting a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel for Bumi Armada s Kraken project. The conversion of the FPSO is for its repeat customer, Bumi Armada (BAB MK, BUY, FV: MYR4.54). Work has begun on the harsh-environment FPSO, which is scheduled for delivery in 3Q15. The vessel will be capable of producing heavy-oil (API degree 14) in the Kraken field, in the UK sector of the North Sea, over a period of 25 years. It is expected to be able to handle a peak fluid rate of 460,000 barrels per day and has a storage capacity of 600,000 barrels. We estimate this FPSO conversion contract value at c.sgd100m-130m. Contract flow-through from Baku Shipyard. On 23 April, Keppel announced 10%-owned Baku Shipyard s first order of a USD378m SCV. Its announcement yesterday was of the fabrication and outfitting job for this vessel. Works include the design of the vessel (which will be built to Keppel Offshore & Marine s proprietary design), while fabrication of hull strips and equipment outfitting will be done in Keppel Singmarine s yard. The SCV, when completed, will be deployed for development projects in the Caspian Sea. A clear contender with Vard. We note the high technical specifications of the vessel dynamic positioning systems (likely to be DP-3), a 750- tonne heave compensated crane rated at a 600m water depth, an 18- man twin-bell diving system and two work-class remotely-operated vehicles. The unit cost of the vessel, at USD378m, is equivalent to NOK2.3bn, making this SCV a direct contender with Vard (VARD SP, NEUTRAL, TP: SGD1.10) s most advanced designs. Maintain BUY, with a SGD12.50 TP. Keppel has won SGD2.2bn in contracts YTD compared with our SGD6.5bn forecast for this year. The stock is still a BUY, with our SOP-based TP at SGD Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (SGDm) 10,082 13,965 12,380 13,536 13,897 Reported net profit (SGDm) 1,946 2,237 1,846 1,485 1,495 Recurring net profit (SGDm) 1,491 1,914 1,412 1,485 1,495 Recurring net profit growth (%) (26.2) Recurring EPS (SGD) DPS (SGD) Recurring P/E (x) P/B (x) P/CF (x) na Dividend Yield (%) EV/EBITDA (x) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) (7.2) (13.2) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1
2 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (SGDm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover 10,082 13,965 12,380 13,536 13,897 Cost of sales (7,706) (11,145) (10,272) (11,508) (11,790) Gross profit 2,377 2,820 2,109 2,029 2,108 Other operating costs 448 (199) 26 (168) (205) Operating profit 2,824 2,621 2,134 1,860 1,903 Operating EBITDA 3,033 2,832 2,377 2,129 2,208 Depreciation of fixed assets (209) (211) (242) (268) (305) Operating EBIT 2,824 2,621 2,134 1,860 1,903 Net income from investments Interest income Pre-tax profit 3,313 3,256 2,794 2,139 2,177 Taxation (444) (501) (397) (387) (394) Minority interests (923) (518) (551) (267) (288) Profit after tax & minorities 1,946 2,237 1,846 1,485 1,495 Reported net profit 1,946 2,237 1,846 1,485 1,495 Recurring net profit 1,491 1,914 1,412 1,485 1,495 Cash flow (SGDm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Operating profit 2,824 2,621 2,134 1,860 1,903 Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital (1,890) (1,448) (734) (181) (79) Other operating cash flow (1,045) (192) (458) (0) 0 Operating cash flow 99 1,192 1,185 1,948 2,129 Interest received Interest paid (98) (121) (120) - - Tax paid (343) (225) (585) (387) (394) Cash flow from operations (224) 1, ,567 1,735 Capex (876) (836) (936) (1,000) (1,000) Other investing cash flow (379) (383) Cash flow from investing activities (1,255) (1,219) (542) (900) (900) Dividends paid (724) (789) (669) (867) (867) Proceeds from issue of shares Increase in debt 809 2,331 2, Other financing cash flow 87 (197) (109) - - Cash flow from financing activities 272 1,427 1,392 (867) (867) Cash at beginning of period 4,246 3,020 4,055 5,565 5,364 Total cash generated (1,207) 1,215 1,474 (200) (32) Forex effects (18) (180) Implied cash at end of period 3,021 4,055 5,564 5,365 5,332 See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
3 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (SGDm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Total cash and equivalents 3,020 4,055 5,565 5,364 5,332 Inventories 6,219 7,661 8,995 8,530 8,757 Accounts receivable 2,028 1,839 1,916 2,225 2,284 Other current assets 981 1,114 1,482 1,482 1,482 Total current assets 12,249 14,669 17,957 17,601 17,856 Total investments 9,420 11,091 8,214 8,487 8,760 Tangible fixed assets 2,716 3,337 3,798 4,430 5,025 Intangible assets Total non-current assets 12,234 14,538 12,098 13,003 13,871 Total assets 24,483 29,207 30,056 30,604 31,727 Short-term debt 808 1, ,420 1,420 Accounts payable 5,323 5,466 5,409 5,563 5,711 Other current liabilities 2,484 2,593 3,416 2,926 2,985 Total current liabilities 8,616 9,064 9,342 9,909 10,117 Total long-term debt 4,069 6,202 6,583 5,680 5,680 Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities 4,675 6,564 7,025 6,122 6,122 Total liabilities 13,292 15,628 16,367 16,031 16,238 Share capital 1,016 1,124 1,206 1,206 1,206 Retained earnings reserve 6,374 8,122 8,495 9,113 9,741 Shareholders' equity 7,390 9,246 9,701 10,318 10,946 Minority interests 3,801 4,332 3,988 4,255 4,543 Total equity 11,191 13,578 13,689 14,573 15,489 Total liabilities & equity 24,483 29,207 30,056 30,604 31,727 Key Ratios (SGD) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14F Dec-15F Revenue growth (%) (11.3) Operating profit growth (%) 81.5 (7.2) (18.6) (12.8) 2.3 Net profit growth (%) (17.5) (19.6) 0.7 EPS growth (%) (17.5) (19.5) 0.7 Bv per share growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share (0.12) See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
4 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 SWOT Analysis Market leader in offshore drilling rigs A strong network of 20 yards worldwide enables the group to be close to its customers Owns a broad range of proprietary designs for offshore products Aggressive tendering by shipyards in China and South Korea could dampen rig prices Stands to benefit from the renewal of old jackup fleet Benefits from the push for local content in Brazil by Petrobras The Singapore Government s push to reduce dependence on foreign workers could hamper output Rising wages and tight supply chain in Brazil may lead to thin margins P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE % % % % % % % % 6.0 0% % % 1.0 9% % 0.5 4% % 0.0 0% P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Keppel Corp is a conglomerate with diversified business interests in offshore & marine, property and infrastructure. See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
5 NR Recommendation Chart 12.4 Recommendations & Target Price Price Close Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral 11.2 Source : OSK-DMG estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 5
6 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage DISCLAIMERS This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to change without notice. This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank Berhad, Malaysia which have since merged into RHB Investment Bank Berhad (the merged entity is referred to as RHBIB which in turn is a whollyowned subsidiary of RHB Capital Berhad) and Deutsche Asia Pacific Holdings Pte Ltd (a subsidiary of Deutsche Bank Group). DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd is a Member of the Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited. DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securities are covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report. As of 30 June 2014, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietary positions in the subject companies, except for: a) - As of 30 June 2014, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, except for: a) - DMG & Partners Research Pte. Ltd. (Reg. No N) Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Research Office RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd Level 11, Tower One, RHB Centre Jalan Tun Razak Kuala Lumpur Malaysia Tel : +(60) Fax : +(60) RHB OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd. (formerly known as OSK Securities Hong Kong Ltd.) 12 th Floor World-Wide House 19 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong Tel : +(852) Fax : +(852) DMG & Partners Securities Pte. Ltd. 10 Collyer Quay #09-08 Ocean Financial Centre Singapore Tel : +(65) Fax : +(65) Jakarta Shanghai Phnom Penh PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia (formerly known as PT OSK Nusadana Securities Indonesia) Plaza CIMB Niaga 14th Floor Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav.25 Jakarta Selatan 12920, Indonesia Tel : +(6221) Fax : +(6221) RHB OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd. (formerly known as OSK (China) Investment Advisory Co. Ltd.) Suite 4005, CITIC Square 1168 Nanjing West Road Shanghai China Tel : +(8621) Fax : +(8621) Bangkok RHB OSK Indochina Securities Limited (formerly known as OSK Indochina Securities Limited) No. 1-3, Street 271 Sangkat Toeuk Thla, Khan Sen Sok Phnom Penh Cambodia Tel: +(855) Fax: +(855) RHB OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL (formerly known as OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL) 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower 98, North Sathorn Road,Silom Bangrak, Bangkok Thailand Tel: +(66) Fax : +(66)
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PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) 12 March 2013 Loong Kok Wen, CFA 603 9280 2237 loong.kok.wen@rhb.com.my News Update MARKET DATELINE MALAYSIA EQUITY Investment Research BUY Target Previous Price Property RM3.25
More informationBuy (from Neutral) SGX (SGX SP) Timely To Relook At This Monopoly With Net Cash
Sep-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Vol m Company Update, SGX (SGX SP) Buy (from Neutral) Financial Services - Exchanges Target Price: SGD8.13 Market Cap: USD5,390m Price: SGD7.19 Timely To Relook
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Results Review, Sunway (SWB MK) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR3.30 Market Cap: USD1,413m Price: MYR2.65 Temporarily Overshadowed By Negative Sentiment Macro Risks Growth Value
More informationBuy (Maintained) Privatisation Achieves Best Possible Outcome
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Vol m Corporate News Flash, 2 April 2015 Keppel Corp (KEP SP) Buy (Maintained) Energy & Petrochemicals - Oil & Gas Services Target Price: SGD11.10 Market Cap:
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Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Vol m Company Update, Mah Sing (MSGB MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR2.44 Market Cap: USD947m Price: MYR2.20 Entering New Growth
More informationInfrastructure Bill Heats Up Thai Politics
THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Veena Naidu, Head of Research +66 (2) 862 9752 veena.na@th.oskgroup.com Infrastructure Bill Heats Up Thai Politics It s High Anxiety As Govt Debates On Bills Political
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OSK Research 04 Feb 2013 THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research The Research Team +66 (0) 2862 9999 Ext. 2030 Buy Target Previous Price Lodging THB THB42.9 THB23.5 THB32.0 CENTEL operates and manages a chain
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Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Vol m Results Review, Sunway (SWB MK) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR3.52 Market Cap: USD1,421m Price: MYR2.75 Unexpected 5 Sen Interim
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Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Vol m Briefing Note, UEM Sunrise (UEMS MK) Neutral (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR2.73 Market Cap: USD2,866m Price: MYR2.10 Mega Projects
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OSK Research PP10551/09/2013 (032829) 15 Feb 2013 THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Daily Buy Target Previous Price Airport Develop/Maint THB THB137 THB133 THB117 Airports of Thailand is the airport
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More informationBuy (Maintained) Hungry For Growth. Consumer Cyclical - Retail Target Price: SGD1.10 Market Cap: USD917m Price: SGD0.85
Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Vol m Results Review, 26 October 2015 Sheng Siong (SSG SP) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Target Price: SGD1.10 Market Cap: USD917m Price: SGD0.85
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14 Feb 2013 THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Chalie Kueyen 66 2862 9745 chalie.ku@th.oskgroup.com Buy Target Previous Price Banks Consumer banking THB THB79.0 THB62.0 THB55.8 Stock Statistics Bloomberg
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More informationNot Rated. The Best Of Times. Consumer Cyclical - Home & Office Products Target Price: MYR0.22 Market Cap: USD43.5m Price: MYR0.17
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Vol m Trading Idea, Marco Holdings (MARC MK) Not Rated Consumer Cyclical - Home & Office Products Target Price: MYR0.22 Market Cap: USD43.5m Price: MYR0.17 The
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Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol m Results Review, 11 November 2015 Centurion Corp (CENT SP) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: SGD0.57 Market Cap: USD227m Price: SGD0.43
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Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Vol m Company Update, 15 October 2015 CapitaLand (CAPL SP) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: SGD4.22 Market Cap: USD9,222m Price: SGD3.04 Preferred
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Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol m Results Review, Genting Singapore (GENS SP) Trading Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Gaming Target Price: SGD1.00 Market Cap: USD6,878m Price: SGD0.82
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Nov-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Vol m Results Review, Tropicana Corp (TRCB MK) Buy (Maintained) Property - Real Estate Target Price: MYR1.84 Market Cap: USD505m Price: MYR1.23 Disappointing Results
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Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Vol m Company Update, 28 September 2015 Sheng Siong (SSG SP) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Retail Target Price: SGD0.97 Market Cap: USD882m Price: SGD0.84
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Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol m Results Review, 13 November 2015 Petra Foods (PETRA SP) Sell (Maintained) Consumer Non-cyclical - Food & Beverage Products Target Price: SGD2.00 Market Cap:
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Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Vol m Results Review, Ascendas REIT (AREIT SP) Buy (Maintained) Property - REITS Target Price: SGD2.55 Market Cap: USD4,234m Price: SGD2.45 Stellar Quarterly Results
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Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Vol m Initiating Coverage, Evergreen Fibreboard (EVF MK) Buy Agriculture - Timber Target Price: MYR1.11 Market Cap: USD104m Price: MYR0.73 Set To Resume Its Glory
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