4th Quarter Greenwich Market Report

Transcription

1 4th Quarter Greenwich Market Report

2 Presented By JARED G. RANDALL Real Estate Salesperson Greenwich Brokerage Mobile: Office: Ext Fax: HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM

3 A SELECTION OF OUR NOTABLE SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD SOLD TRUSTED TO SELL MORE HOMES THAN ANY OTHER BROKERAGE

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOURTH QUARTER We are welcoming the New Year with a lot to celebrate and look forward to in The unusually warm weather of the 4th quarter brought out the buyers, and led to a crescendo of activity as we closed out. The momentum puts Greenwich in a great position as we head into 2016, and what we anticipate will be a brisk spring selling season. The optimism we have for the New Year is firmly grounded in reality. Although the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, the central bank says it will take a gradual approach, and so we don t expect that to deter buyers. In fact, the possibility of higher rates is more likely to motivate buyers to lock in rates sooner rather than later. The average 30-year mortgage remains under 4 according to Freddie Mac. Here are some trends we see unfolding in 2016: There are serious buyers in the market, but they are specific. For example, many new, young, families are ready to buy their first home. More Millennials are getting jobs, and wages are going up. But they have more student debt than previous generations, and they will stick to their budget. They not only want value, they need value. That s lifting demand for entry level homes under $2 million in Greater Greenwich. Pricing is the most important decision a seller will make. A home that doesn t deliver value is a home that simply will not sell. It s no longer enough to look at the last similar home that sold. Sellers must also be open-minded and strategic about how a buyer may see the property. First impressions are key, and often that is the price tag. Greenwich may be unique in its appeal, but buyers could hit the pause button if concerns about global uncertainty escalate. Sellers that are serious should get their homes on the market and in the best condition possible. Buyer enthusiasm could quickly change based on world events. If selling in a timely manner is a priority, sellers should be strategic and aggressive. Some regional statistics we d like to share: Buyers looking for homes in Greenwich may lose out if they don t pick up the pace. Homes were on the market 10 percent fewer days in the last three months of compared to the previous year. Homes are also selling closer their asking price year over year. As has been the trend, those with the biggest budgets, over $10 million, will have the most choice. Buyers looking to more affordable homes in the $1m to $2m range should act swiftly as this price category saw a nearly 25 jump in sales in. FOURTH QUARTER Strategic pricing is paying off for sellers in Greenwich North of the Parkway. Both on a quarterly and yearly comparison basis, homes are selling closer to their asking price. That means buyers are seeing the value, and are coming in with solid offers. Also of note: homes were on the market for 25 percent fewer days in the 4th quarter of, setting up for a faster and more enthusiastic market in The big winners in the area are homes priced between $1m and $2m, where there was a jump of more than 70 percent in sales last year compared to. Location will help successful sellers get top dollar in Greenwich South of the Parkway, but fewer buyers are willing and able to pay up. Prices have moved higher in Greenwich South of the Highway, as buyers continue to be attracted by the area s convenient location. But sales are down, in some cases dramatically. Overall sales in the area fell about 11 percent year-over-year, and the fourth quarter showed a drop of more than 31 percent. That trend is a concern.

5 South of Post Road earned an A in terms of getting the closest sales price to list price at 96 percent for. That was the best performance in a decade. And the 4th quarter was strong in terms of days on market, down more than 50 percent compared to the last quarter of. But sellers there should also be aware that prices have come down, in some cases dramatically. The number of sales has also fallen in the area. New construction is bringing attention to Cos Cob. While not as many homes were sold, the ones that did were at higher average prices. In fact average sale prices haven t been this high since There was a similar trend in Riverside, where while fewer homes were sold, those that were commanded higher prices. Buyers were patient. In both Cos Cob and Riverside, days on market moved higher. Old Greenwich is well positioned for While buyers are paying closer to the listing price, activity has been quiet after a strong and first half of. The standout winning price range: $1m to $2m where there was a 72 percent increase in the number of homes sold in compared to. The biggest demand is for homes under $2m. There was a pickup as the year came to a close, and with prices down more than 20 percent for the year compared to, there is a lot of value to attract buyers in the New Year. Condominium sellers have reason to celebrate. More units were sold, at higher prices, with fewer days on the market in the 4th quarter of compared to the year ago quarter. The average sale price topped $1m for the first time since The New Year brings with it many possibilities. Nationally, the housing market has shown signs of softness. But more people are getting jobs, and that includes young people who will look to move to our community. We may see more of them getting serious about buying this winter, now that the reality of higher interest rates has begun to sink in. That trend is already lifting entry-level homes. We believe that will be a catalyst to drive interest in luxury properties as well, as owners get more interested in trading up. One thing remains a constant: Greenwich has everything buyers want: low taxes, proximity to New York City, the best schools, fantastic parks, and of course, premiere shopping and dining. Buyers have been waiting for homes to be priced right to make a move. We believe now is that time. We look forward to continuing to serve the community, and to a happy and healthy new year with all of you. Stephen Meyers President and CEO Chris Meyers Managing Principal

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS FOURTH QUARTER GREATER GREENWICH GREENWICH Single Family Home Overview South of the Post Road GREENWICH COS COB North of the Parkway GREENWICH OLD GREENWICH GREATER GREENWICH Condominium Overview RIVERSIDE South of the Parkway HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM

7 GREATER GREENWICH QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,118,958 $2,465, $2,423,296 $2,688, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,600,000 $1,881, $1,858,125 $1,881, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $574 $ $592 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $2,687,400 $3,009,807 $2,818,933 $2,664,991 $2,518,862 $2,429,922 $2,381,680 $2,245,168 $2,688,907 $2,423,296 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $638 $665 $627 $545 $544 $539 $555 $555 $610 $592 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

8 GREATER GREENWICH SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

9 GREENWICH NORTH OF THE PARKWAY QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,431,937 $3,286, $2,834,463 $4,136, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,843,000$1,650, $2,043,000 $2,745, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $440 $ $524 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $4,349,585 $4,703,453 $5,046,500 $5,855,000 $4,552,510 $3,887,759 $3,548,310 $3,106,132 $4,136,921 $2,834,463 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $644 $656 $578 $682 $609 $557 $504 $524 $558 $524 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

10 GREENWICH NORTH OF THE PARKWAY SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, Not Valid $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 20 0 Not Valid 22 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 4 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

11 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,545,945 $2,541, $3,084,254 $2,698, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,905,000$2,275, $2,418,407 $2,237, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $569 $ $588 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $3,404,082 $3,261,675 $3,389,186 $3,306,936 $3,098,527 $2,764,965 $2,788,964 $2,774,982 $2,698,854 $3,084,254 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $658 $656 $653 $545 $552 $529 $569 $536 $566 $588 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

12 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up 16 0 Not Valid 8 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

13 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE POST ROAD QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $1,796,027 $2,884, $2,043,325 $4,083, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $987,500 $1,750, $1,192,500 $1,482, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $623 $ $597 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $2,366,656 $3,957,126 $2,291,158 $2,658,088 $3,031,344 $3,239,191 $2,486,569 $2,219,081 $4,083,817 $2,043,325 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $659 $856 $617 $558 $573 $570 $574 $577 $726 $597 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

14 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE POST ROAD SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, Not Valid $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid 4 0 Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

15 COS COB QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $1,386,111$1,170, $1,365,294 $1,254, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $875,000 $1,110, $1,250,000 $1,178, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $487 $ $506 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $1,513,291 $1,573,462 $1,429,370 $1,254,122 $1,141,637 $1,116,709 $1,224,821 $1,241,224 $1,254,598 $1,365,294 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $532 $520 $468 $418 $403 $431 $414 $471 $465 $506 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

16 COS COB SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 0 0 Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

17 RIVERSIDE QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,065,288 $1,841, $2,275,811 $2,000, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,941,000 $1,422, $1,903,500 $1,862, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $653 $ $634 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $1,890,793 $2,268,258 $2,734,694 $2,049,817 $1,825,869 $1,856,569 $2,135,381 $1,962,380 $2,000,919 $2,275,811 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $607 $636 $682 $573 $535 $539 $588 $582 $598 $634 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

18 RIVERSIDE SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, Not Valid $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 3 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 3 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 2 0 Not Valid 3 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 1 0 Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

19 OLD GREENWICH QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR FULL YEAR CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $1,837,635 $2,784, $2,017,057 $2,564, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,600,000 $2,738, $1,685,000 $2,125, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $600 $ $644 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $1,960,677 $2,466,218 $2,041,162 $1,785,979 $1,736,841 $1,905,612 $2,271,283 $1,753,566 $2,564,436 $2,017,057 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $679 $703 $664 $565 $575 $588 $617 $615 $749 $644 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

20 OLD GREENWICH SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, Not Valid $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 1 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

21 GREATER GREENWICH CONDOMINIUMS QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE FULL YEAR CHANGE UNITS SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $921,034 $881, $1,028,489 $901, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $684,000$745, $760,000 $710, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $487 $ $495 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $967,194 $1,054,207 $950,219 $888,920 $819,813 $878,893 $852,428 $842,525 $901,903 $1,028,489 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $542 $530 $490 $440 $413 $436 $422 $436 $456 $495 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

22 GREATER GREENWICH CONDOMINIUMS SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF DECEMBER 31, AS OF DECEMBER 31, vs. : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE CHANGE $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 0 0 Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Condominium

23 5 GLOBAL NETWORKS REACHING 56 COUNTRIES & 6 CONTINENTS Leading Real Estate Companies of the World Luxury Portfolio International Mayfair International Realty Board of Regents Luxury Real Estate