1ST QUARTER 2018 GREENWICH BROKERAGE

Transcription

1 Market Report 1ST QUARTER 2018 GREENWICH BROKERAGE

2 Presented By BARBARA K. CIOFFARI Real Estate Salesperson Greenwich Brokerage Mobile: Office: Ext Fax: HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM

3 Building Communities for Generations #Since1888

4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIRST QUARTER 2018 Let s start with Thank You. Houlihan Lawrence remains the #1 brokerage in Greenwich, Connecticut. We love our community and we appreciate all the support we receive from our agents, clients, friends and neighbors. Real estate is personal. We enjoy creating personal strategies for each client based on their needs. We watch the big picture trends, and then make sure we integrate what matters into our plans. Right now, there is a lot to watch. One is the weather forecast. Fortunately, the worst of the cold weather seems to have passed. Mother Nature played a bigger role than usual in the past three months, and the Nor easters did impact buyers interest in seeing homes during storms. Part of the calm after those storms will likely be pent up demand to get out and see the properties that are on the market. Buyers have been waiting, and will be ready if they see what they want. The financial markets and the politics that are at times the drivers of market activity remain a focus. There is a lack of clarity and a high degree of uncertainty in our nation s capital. That is keeping the financial markets on edge, resulting in extreme volatility in the first quarter of the year. The S&P 500 recorded its first quarterly loss since Market performance, and the impact on buyer s confidence, is something we will continue to monitor closely. Changes in the tax law will also likely impact our markets. While interest rates have remained low for longer than many had expected, buyers will be able to deduct interest on only $750,000 of a mortgage loan, down from $1 million. The more limited property, state and local tax deductions also add to the cost of home ownership for many potential buyers. For our business, we are proud to have been involved in the majority of the biggest sales in the first quarter of Prices rose overall in the area, in large part because of the sale of well-priced luxury homes. Buyers responded to value, and the success of that strategy is universal. While sales were down compared to 2017, they were better than in the previous 8 years. Looking forward, we do see improvement in pending deal activity. That is a sign of good things, and good sales, to come. Here are some trends that we are seeing for the spring season: We are mindful of the headwinds we are facing. Of course, the literal ones we referenced above with respect to the weather. But also the reality that home sales did decline in the first quarter in Greenwich. Buyers are taking their time and waiting for not just the right property, but the right property presented in the best light, and at the right price. Think like a buyer. Strategic, realistic and value driven initial pricing is the absolute best way a seller can gain an advantage over similar properties in this competitive market. If buyers don t get the right first impression, they don t come back. There is rarely a second time at bat. Social media trends and influencers impact our markets and reveal opportunities. A Bank of America study showed that as Millennials are seeing more photos of homes of their friends on Instagram and Facebook, they are becoming more interested in also becoming buyers. They found that twenty-five percent of the Millennials surveyed had #FOMO, short for fear of missing out. Twenty-three percent were jealous of the homes bought by their friends and acquaintances. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), Millennials make up sixty-five percent of all first-time home buyers.

5 Some regional statistics we d like to share: Greenwich North of the Parkway is well positioned for a rising-sales spring selling season, with pending sales up by 25 percent. The momentum is welcome after a sluggish quarter. Weekend home buyers are attracted to the proximity to New York City and to the Merritt Parkway. Pending sales activity soared in Greenwich South of Post Road surging an impressive 120 percent in the first quarter. That news provides encouragement for sellers, who faced a rough quarter with a decline in sales. Sales in Old Greenwich held steady, a good sign in a challenging market. Transactions were happening faster with days on market falling 46 percent. The key driver was smarter initial pricing by sellers. Sellers in Riverside who want to be successful will need to double down on their commitment to initial strategic pricing was strong but the beginning of 2018 suffered, with a decline in sales and an increase in days on market. Cos Cob is seeing better times ahead, with a 152 percent jump in pending deal activity. But the area was not immune to the winter chill in the market. Sales in the area declined in the first quarter of Condominium sales were on trend with a decline, but the market segment had one bright spot. Condos in the $1 million-$2 million range saw a sales jump of nearly 17 percent. This is a busy time for all of us as a community. The market is there for sellers who are able to meet the rising expectations of buyers. We look forward to a warmer market, and frankly warmer weather, as we move into the spring and summer selling seasons. Stephen Meyers CEO Chris Meyers President

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS FIRST QUARTER 2018 GREATER GREENWICH GREENWICH Single Family Home Overview South of the Post Road GREENWICH COS COB North of the Parkway GREENWICH OLD GREENWICH GREATER GREENWICH Condominium Overview RIVERSIDE South of the Parkway HOULIHANLAWRENCE.COM

7 GREATER GREENWICH QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,663,322 $2,510, $2,574,993 $2,203, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,997,500$1,870, $1,800,000 $1,700, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $577 $ $577 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $2,670,757 $2,523,347 $2,429,922 $2,381,680 $2,245,168 $2,688,907 $2,421,486 $2,203,756 $2,574,993 $2,663,322 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $546 $545 $539 $555 $555 $610 $591 $564 $577 $577 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

8 GREATER GREENWICH SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 16 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

9 GREENWICH NORTH OF THE PARKWAY QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $3,952,642 $3,488, $3,590,745 $2,939, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $3,226,000$2,395, $2,445,000 $2,200, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $565 $ $500 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $5,855,000 $4,552,510 $3,887,759 $3,548,310 $3,106,132 $4,136,921 $2,834,463 $2,939,222 $3,590,745 $3,952,642 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $682 $609 $557 $504 $524 $558 $524 $470 $500 $565 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

10 GREENWICH NORTH OF THE PARKWAY SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, Not Valid $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, Not Valid $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 9 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 12 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 12 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 11 0 Not Valid 11 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, Not Valid $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

11 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW CHANGE FULL YEAR 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,723,553 $2,565, $2,750,683 $2,403, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $2,050,000$2,200, $1,935,500 $1,972, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $548 $ $546 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $3,306,936 $3,098,527 $2,764,965 $2,788,964 $2,774,982 $2,698,854 $3,075,190 $2,403,016 $2,750,683 $2,723,553 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $545 $552 $529 $569 $536 $566 $586 $534 $546 $548 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

12 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 3 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 1 0 Not Valid 4 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

13 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE POST ROAD QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $3,092,250$3,438, $3,061,203 $2,545, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $2,181,250 $1,347, $1,640,275 $1,700, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $757 $ $655 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $2,658,088 $3,101,381 $3,239,191 $2,486,569 $2,219,081 $4,083,817 $2,043,325 $2,545,622 $3,061,203 $3,092,250 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $558 $575 $570 $574 $577 $726 $597 $622 $655 $757 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

14 GREENWICH SOUTH OF THE POST ROAD SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 6 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 4 0 Not Valid 4 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, Not Valid $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

15 COS COB QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $1,464,396 $1,285, $1,331,751 $1,321, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,227,500$1,240, $1,161,000 $1,175, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $477 $ $456 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $1,254,122 $1,128,900 $1,116,709 $1,224,821 $1,241,224 $1,254,598 $1,365,294 $1,321,116 $1,331,751 $1,464,396 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $418 $405 $431 $414 $471 $465 $506 $489 $456 $477 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

16 COS COB SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 0 0 Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

17 RIVERSIDE QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,925,214 $2,260, $2,371,435 $2,121, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $1,997,500$1,880, $1,797,000 $1,690, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $600 $ $619 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $2,049,817 $1,825,869 $1,856,569 $2,135,381 $1,962,380 $2,000,919 $2,275,811 $2,121,616 $2,371,435 $2,925,214 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $573 $535 $539 $588 $582 $598 $634 $600 $619 $600 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

18 RIVERSIDE SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 3 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 6 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 1 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

19 OLD GREENWICH QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE HOMES SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $2,464,321 $2,377, $2,455,255 $1,997, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $2,029,000$2,137, $1,950,000 $1,662, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $615 $ $709 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $1,803,622 $1,743,310 $1,905,612 $2,271,283 $1,753,566 $2,564,436 $2,017,057 $1,997,289 $2,455,255 $2,464,321 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $569 $579 $588 $617 $615 $749 $644 $646 $709 $615 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

20 OLD GREENWICH SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 6 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up 1 0 Not Valid Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 1 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 0 0 Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Single-family homes

21 GREATER GREENWICH CONDOMINIUMS QUARTERLY MARKET OVERVIEW FULL YEAR CHANGE 2017 FULL YEAR 2016 CHANGE UNITS SOLD AVERAGE SALE PRICE $866,747 $997, $1,030,294 $981, MEDIAN SALE PRICE $699,000$750, $755,000 $752, AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $469 $ $492 $ AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET SALE PRICE TO LIST PRICE TEN-YEAR MARKET HISTORY Average Sale Price $888,920 $819,813 $878,893 $852,428 $842,525 $901,903 $1,028,489 $981,069 $1,030,294 $866,747 Average Sale Price Average Price/SqFt $440 $413 $436 $422 $436 $456 $495 $488 $492 $469 Average Price/SqFt Days On Market Days On Market Sale Price to List Price Sale Price to List Price * Homes sold for 2018 are annualized based on actual sales year-to-date.

22 GREATER GREENWICH CONDOMINIUMS SUPPLY ANALYSIS PRICE RANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 2018 AS OF MARCH 31, vs : : S $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid 2 0 Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, $6,000,000 - $7,999, $8,000,000 - $9,999, $10,000,000 and up Market Totals *Supply Demand Ratio Key 1-4: High Demand 5-6: Balanced 7-9: Low Demand 10+: Very Low Demand SOLD PROPERTIES YEAR-TO-DATE YEAR-OVER-YEAR 01/01/ /01/ CHANGE 2018/ /01/ /01/ CHANGE 2017/2016 $0 - $999, $1,000,000 - $1,999, $2,000,000 - $2,999, $3,000,000 - $3,999, $4,000,000 - $4,999, Not Valid $5,000,000 - $5,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $6,000,000 - $7,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $8,000,000 - $9,999, Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid $10,000,000 and up 0 0 Not Valid 0 0 Not Valid Market Totals Source: Greenwich Multiple Listing Service, Condominium

23 AREA S MOST POWERFUL GLOBAL NETWORK Leading Real Estates Companies of the World Luxury Portfolio International Mayfair International Realty Board of Regents Luxury Real Estate