Cargo Workshop Think the Unthinkable

Transcription

1 Cargo Workshop Think the Unthinkable IUMI 2018 IUMI Cargo Committee Report Sean M. Dalton, Chairman 18 September 2018, Cape Town

2 IUMI Cargo Committee Sean M. Dalton, Munich Reinsurance America, Inc., Cargo Committee Chair, USA Isabelle Therrien, Falvey Cargo, Vice Chair, Canada Mikaela Tamm, Insurance Sweden, Secretary, Sweden Bei Ying, PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited, China Niklas Bengtsson, Inter Hannover, Sweden/Nordic Mike Brews, Horizon Underwriting Managers (Pty) Ltd; RSA Joanne S.F. Chan, XLCatlin, Hong Kong Nicholas Derrick, Standard Syndicate, UK David Grant, CNA/Hardy, UK Sundeep Khera, AXA Corporate Solutions, Singapore Matthias Kirchner, AXA Corporate Solutions, Germany Hosny Mishrif, Misr Insurance Company, Egypt Jill Murphy, Agile Underwriting Services Pty Ltd, Australia Matthew O'Sullivan, Zurich Financial Services Australia, Australia Cesare Ponti, AIG, Italy Howard Potter, RSA Insurance, UK Nicole Pousson, Swiss Re International SE, France Sanjiv Singh, General Insurance Council, India Observers: Tom Shinya, Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co., Ltd. Japan Eric De Smet, Political Forum Liason Patrizia Kern-Ferretti, Executive Committee Liaison

3 Cargo Outlook World Trade Outlook: World merchandise trade growth is expected to remain strong in 2018 and 2019 after posting its largest increase in six years in 2017, but continued expansion depends on robust global economic growth and governments pursuing appropriate monetary, fiscal and especially trade policies. (WTO 12 April 2018) Trade expansion will likely slow further in the third quarter of 2018 according to the WTO s latest World Trade Outlook Indicator. (WTOI9 August 2018) Cargo remains the largest commercial Marine line of business in terms of GWP. Cargo insurance policies often provide the broadest first party insurance coverage in the non-life insurance market including added value offerings such as claims and risk engineering. InsurTech and innovation are impacting the Cargo line of business as part of advances in entire supply chain and how business will be transacted in the future. Cargo Insurance Market conditions firming / hardening. NAT CAT Concerns. Containership Fires (Misdeclared Cargoes). Increasing concern around Unknown Port and Vessel Accumulation.

4 Cargo Outlook High acquisition costs and expenses for Cargo Line. Broker Facilities commoditizing Cargo Line at high commission levels. Deteriorating Loss Ratios for Cargo Line including attritional, large / outlier, and NAT CAT. Many companies have supported results with prior year reserve releases in recent years. Cargo has been in a sustained soft market with multiple years of declining rates, and claims inflation (trend) has added to rate adequacy challenges. In theory specialty lines, including marine, are expected to outperform their P&C counterparts over the cycle, but actual results show Cargo is underperforming globally. The increasing impact of NAT CAT and large / outlier losses in recent years shows the need for cargo line to price for such losses over the cycle and develop risk adequate premiums. This is not currently reflected in rate levels.

5 Cargo Outlook Increased static risk covered via stock thru put policies (at times including retail locations). Extremely poor results for Cargo Underwriters on Auto Accounts. Breadth of coverage, expansion of Cargo Policy and recent high profile losses including Misappropriation, Property (NAT CAT), Satellite Pre-Launch, and Container Leasing (Repatriation Expenses). Compliance (sanctions / OFAC). Importance of Globally Compliant Cargo Policies (locally admitted policies where required). Cyber. More information is available than ever before, but underwriters get less information in their submissions than they did 25 years ago. Overcapacity in Market. M&A Activity / Reorganizations.

6 Cargo Premium versus World Trade Values & Exports Index of evolution, 2005=100% 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% World Trade Values (Goods) World Trade Volume (Goods) Global Cargo Premium Evolution of world trade values and cargo premium seem to correspond. Premiums also reflect exchange rate influences. Extended risk covers and the increasing risk of event losses (risk accumulation) need also to be taken into account!

7 Cargo Major Losses 2012 to 2017 Audience questions

8 2017 NAT CATs

9 Gross* loss ratios Cargo Europe (& partly US) ** Underwriting years 2010 to 2017, as reported at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years 90% 80% 70% 60% , 2015, 2016: Each year extraordinary increase in loss ratios. Change in typical pattern. The new normal? 2017 starts at 2014 level. With a normal pattern (grey lines), 2017 would end around 70%. With recent pattern, 2017 ends around 80%. 50% *Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) **Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, USA 9

10 Ultimate Gross* loss ratios Cargo Europe (& partly US)** Underwriting years 1996 to 2017 Cargo acquisition cost reported by some countries: 15%-20% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 20 17? Recent years strong impact by outlier & Nat-cat event losses: 2015: Tianjin port explosions 2016: Hanjin, Amos-6 satellite 2017: Hurricanes / Nat Cat 2018: Mærsk Honam Affect more than one uw year. Increasing expenses a concern. 0% reported IBNR estimate (normal pattern) IBNR Estimate (recent pattern) * Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) **Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, USA 10

11 Gross loss ratios accounting year Cargo Asia* - Gross premiums & paid claims 4,000,000,000 60% 3,500,000,000 50% 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 40% Stable 40-45% until ,000,000,000 30% Increase from ,500,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, % 10% 0% Probable impact by Tianjin port explosions, Nat Cat & deterioration in premium volume. * China, Japan, Hong Kong Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio 11

12 Gross loss ratios accounting year Cargo Latin America*- Gross premiums & paid claims 3,000,000, % 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000, ,000, % 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% Stable around average 50-55%. Peak in 2015 related to major claim impact in one country % Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio *Figures included from: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela. 12

13 Theoretical Cargo Profitability Example 100.0% 93.0% Gross Combined Ratio needed to achieve return on capital less less 17.5% for Commissions / Brokerage 72.0% Actual Industry Gross Loss Ratio 15.0% for Internal Expenses 60.5% Gross Loss Ratio needed to achieve return on capital 11.5 point gap Source: Munich Re America

14 IUMI Cargo Committee Country Report Report published on since December 2017 Available by download via access code only (general public cannot view) 14 International Union of Marine Insurance March 2018

15 Cargo Workshop Agenda Think the Unthinkable September 18th 14:20 17:20 Timing Topic Presenter 14:20-14:35 Chairman Report Sean Dalton 14:35-14:55 Mining, Precious Metals and Associated Risks on the African Continent Richard Pearson 14:55-15:15 Challenges in Inland Transport in Africa A legal quagmire Kingsley Hongnyuh Kwalar 15:15-15:20 South Africa Q&A 15:20-15:45 Should you be worried about the cyber risk to Cargo Roderick Johnson 15:45-16:15 COFFEE BREAK 16:15-16:40 Cargo Panel - Static risk Matthias Kirchner 16:40-16:50 Cargo Panel - Using Artificial Intelligence to Predict Cargo Related Losses Daniel Fink 16:-50-17:05 Cargo Panel- Cargo coverage extensions Howard Potter 17:05-17:15 Cargo Panel Q&A Isabelle Therrien 17:15-17:20 Wrap Up Sean Dalton

16 THANK YOU Sean M. Dalton Chairman IUMI Cargo Committee 18 September 2018, Cape Town