GLOBAL MARINE INSURANCE REPORT 2017

Transcription

1 GLOBAL MARINE INSURANCE REPORT 2017 Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary, The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) Vice chair of IUMI s Facts & Figures Committee

2 Warning! Figures reflect the 2017 state of reporting/ estimates and will change retrospectively! For comparison purposes, do NOT compare figures in this report to last year s report, but check updated premiums and loss ratios for the last ten years at 2

3 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & Results Hull Market & Results Offshore Energy Market & Results For for download at Marine premiums by country Loss ratios triangulations: Hull, Cargo, Energy 3

4 Focus/New in 2017 New: Loss ratios Asia & Latin America (Cargo & Hull, accounting year) Cargo: Recent deterioration. Hull: Vessel value & claims trends. Major versus serious casualties. Offshore energy: Survival training? Hurricanes are back, too. 4

5 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & Results Hull Market & Results Offshore Energy Market & Results 5

6 Marine Premium 2016 by line of business Total estimate 2016: 27.5 USD billion / Change 2015 to 2016: -9% NB: Exchange rate effects due to recent strong USD! 7% 13% % Global Hull Transport/Cargo Marine Liability Offshore/Energy 54% Offshore energy share down 2%, Cargo up 2%. 6

7 Marine Premiums 2016 by region 9.5% 5.6% 4.1% 2.7% 2016 Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East Africa 50.2% 27.9% Total: 27.5 USD billion 7

8 Marine premiums by region , Data as reported ,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000, : UK-IUA New data survey Recent premium reductions: Combination of strong USD and market conditions. Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East Africa 2,000, : 30.3 USD bill. 2016: 27.5 USD bill. 8

9 USD Exchange rates against selected currencies, Index, 2000=100% 2014/15: strong USD many currencies with double-digit % devaluation against USD. 2016: most currencies stabilize/some strengthen against USD 170% 150% 130% 110% 90% 70% 50% Source: Norges Bank exchange rates. CNY (China) JPY (Japan) EUR (Euro) NOK (Norway) GBP (UK) BRL (Brazil) * 2016 rates as of July 9

10 P&I Clubs International Group Gross Calls (premium) 2016 Operational location 6% 3% 6% 3% 12% 48% 13% 18% by country of registration Bermuda UK Luxembourg Nordic Japan US 30% 61% Calls 2016: UK: 2.03 Nordic: 1.00 Japan: % - 2.8% - 6.5% - 0.7% US: 0.08 Total: 3.32 (USD billion) Source: International Group of P&I Clubs All down: - 5.1% UK Nordic Japan US 10

11 P&I Pool claims by policy year Source: Annual Review of the International Group of P&I Clubs Pool claims on 2016/17 policy year reduced compared to 2015/16. IG P&I: This continues the encouraging trend of more benign large claims P&I is a complex business with high liabilities! Check Annual Review of the Int. Group of P&I Clubs to understand complexity of exposure under P&I liability: 11

12 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & Results Hull Market & Results Offshore Energy Market & Results 12

13 Cargo Premium 2016 by region Total estimate: 15.0 USD billion / Change 2015 to 2016: -6% Exchange rate effects strongest on cargo premium. 5% 7% 4% % 43% 30% Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East Africa 13

14 Cargo Premium by markets Total estimate: 15.0 USD billion 2016 Other 29.5% Belgium 1.7% Brazil 5.3% China 8.4% France 4.6% Germany 7.3% USA 4.6% India 2.2% Italy 2.5% UK (Lloyds) 9.5% UK (IUA) 4.4% Spain 1.3% Singapore Russia 2.2% 2.2% Nordic 1.5% Mexico 2.4% Netherlands 1.5% Japan 8.9% 14

15 Cargo Premium Selected markets 2,500, : strong USD «reduces» income of most countries. Difficult to identify real market development different influences. 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 China UK (Lloyds) Japan Germany USA Brazil France UK (IUA) India - 15

16 Cargo Premium versus World Trade Values & Exports 400% 350% Index of evolution, 1995=100% IMF estimate April 2017 World Trade Values 300% 250% World Trade Volume 200% 150% 100% 50% Decline in USD cargo premium combination of strong USD (exchange rates) and market conditions. Global Cargo Premium * 0% * Premium adjusted backwards for missing historical data. 16

17 Gross* loss ratios Cargo Europe (& partly US) ** Underwriting years 1996 to 2016, as reported at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years 90% 80% 70% 60% 2014 & 2015: Strong increase in claims reserves! Untypical development pattern % *Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) **Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, USA 17

18 Ultimate Gross* loss ratios Cargo Europe (& partly US)** Underwriting years 1996 to % 120% 100% 80% 60% Cargo acquisition cost reported by some countries: 15%-20% 2014/2015: severly deteriorated 2015: Tianjin port explosion. 2016: (Hanjin), Amos-6 satellite affect more than one uw year 2016? 2017: Harvey & Irma Can impact 2016 & % 20% 0% * Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) **Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, USA 18

19 Gross loss ratios accounting year Cargo Asia* - Gross premiums & paid claims 4,000,000,000 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 Mostly about 45%, but recent increase. 60% 50% 40% 2,000,000,000 30% 1,500,000,000 1,000,000, ,000,000 20% 10% Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio 0% * China, Japan, Hong Kong 19

20 Gross loss ratios accounting year Cargo Latin America*- Gross premiums & paid claims 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 Average 50-55%, but peak in % 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 1,000,000, ,000, Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 20 *Figures included from: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela.

21 Cargo Key points USD premium influenced by combination of market conditions and exchange rates (strong USD). Market change and results differ by region & 2015 Results severely deteriorated (Tianjin). Uncertain how 2016 will develop (Amos-6, Harvey, Irma). Risk of even larger event claims: Climate (NatCat) & Increasing value accumulation on single sites Premiums represent increasingly stock exposure rather than transit exposure Despite some increase in trade, changing economic and political environment adds to uncertainty. 21

22 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & Results Hull Market & Results Offshore Energy Market & Results 22

23 Hull Premium 2016 by region Total estimate: 7 USD billion / Change 2015 to 2016: -10% 5.2% 4.5% 1.6% 1.0% % 48.1% Europe Asia/Pacific Latin America North America Middle East Africa 23

24 Hull Premium 2016 by markets Total estimate 2016: USD 7 billion Latin America 5.2% USA 3.7% Other 15.1% 2016 China 10.9% France 4.0% Italy 3.8% Japan 7.8% UK (Lloyds) 17.3% ** ** includes proportional and facultative reinsurance Korea, Republic 2.8% Netherlands 1.8% Nordic 8.8% * UK (IUA) 5.4% Spain 1.6% Singapore 11.8% * Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden 24

25 Hull Premium Selected markets Hull premium reduced in most markets from 2015 to ,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 UK (Lloyds) Singapore China Nordic Japan UK (IUA) Latin America Korea, Republic of 25

26 Hull Premium / World Fleet Index of evolution, 1995 = 100% World fleet continues to grow, especially in tonnage. Hull premium deteriorates in line with average ship values. Mismatch between fleet growth and income level. 275% 250% 225% Gross tonnage (> 300 GT) 200% 175% 150% 125% Av. insured vessel value (Renewals & newbuilds - Cefor) Global Marine Hull Premium * 100% 75% No. Ships (> 300 GT) 50% * Premium adjusted backwards for missing historical data. 26

27 Gross* loss ratios Hull Europe** (& partly US) Underwriting years 2010 to 2016, as reported at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years 100% 90% 80% 70% 2016/2017: Harvey 60% & Irma impact? 50% 40% Costa Concordia peak 2014 uw year deteriorated more than average Impact of 2015 major claims, attaching to uw year started off higher than 2013/ slightly below 2015 at end of first year * Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) ** Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, UK, USA

28 Ultimate Gross* loss ratios Hull Europe** (& partly US) Underwriting years 1996 to % 120% 100% Hull acquisition cost as reported by some countries: 12%-18% Strong major loss impact in certain years creates volatility in results. Overcapacity, dropping vessel values and lay-ups influence income negatively. 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% *Technical break even: gross loss ratio does not exceed 100% minus the expense ratio (acquisition cost, capital cost, management expenses) ** Data included from: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain (until 2007), UK, USA 28

29 Gross loss ratios accounting year Hull Asia* - Gross premiums & paid claims 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 Increase in loss ratios possible effect of claims coming though after portfolio growth (hull claims paid over some years). 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 1,500,000, % 40.0% 1,000,000, % 500,000, % 10.0% Gross premiums Paid claims Loss ratio - paid claims 0.0% * China, Japan, Hong Kong. 29

30 Gross loss ratios accounting year Hull Latin America* - Gross premiums & paid claims 300,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 50,000, Gross premiums Paid claims Paid loss ratio 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 30 *Figures included from: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Venezuela.

31 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & results Hull Focus: Portfolio & Claims trends Serious versus major casualties Offshore Energy Market & results 31

32 Hull Portfolio trends Astrid Seltmann 32

33 Change in values on renewal = vessel value on renewal / vessel value previous uw year (same vessels in both years) 15.0% Some reduction expected due to aging of vessels, but from 2015 vessel 10.0% 5.0% 5.9% 2.3% 8.7% 2.3% From 4Q 2008: Strong Financial drop crisis in values after effect financial crisis 2015: drop in values accelerates again. Why? 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -7.9% -4.2% -6.5%-6.2%-6.0% -5.7% -7.4% -9.2% -15.0% -20.0% -14.8% Source: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June

34 -29.5% -11.8% -14.1% -15.0% -14.2% -12.3% -13.7% -7.5% -2.3% % -8.7% % % -1.2% % -4.8% % % 9.8% 6.8% 5.9% 4.6% 4.4% 1.7% 16.7% 23.3% 23.7% 35.3% Bulk & Supply/Offshore values Supply/Offshore vessels drop ~14% in value for 3 rd consecutive year. Bulk recovers in 2017 after 2 years of 2-digit drop in values. 40.0% 30.0% Bulk Suppl/Off 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -40.0% Source: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June

35 Inflow of high-value vessels continues 6% 5% Portfolio share of ships with values exceeding USD 100 million > 300 MUSD MUSD 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Source: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June

36 Hull claims trends 36

37 Claims frequency as of June 2017 All claims: Stable to downwards trend. Total losses: Long-term positive trend. Recent fluctuation around 0.1%. Dropping ship values increase probability of constructive total losses % 0.30% 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% Source: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June 2017? 0.25% 0.20% 0.15% 0.10% 0.05% 0.00% partial claims <75% SI (left axis) TLO claims >75% SI (right axis) 37

38 Claim cost per vessel Total and partial claims, by accident year, in USD 120,000 Little total loss impact in 2016 and 1st half ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Ultimate claim cost per vessel incl. IBNR Ultimate partial claim per vessel incl. IBNR 38

39 Claim cost per vessel in bands of claim cost, by accident year, in USD 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, : Increasing volatility by single major losses with unprecedented cost. Low major loss impact in 2016 and first half of > 50 MUSD 30 <= 50 MUSD 10 <= 30 MUSD 5 <= 10 MUSD 1 <= 5 MUSD <= 1 MUSD IBNR Source: Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June

40 Serious versus major casualties An excursion into terminology Major claims (=extraordinary costly claims) strongly impact marine insurers results. Marine bodies such as IMO and providers of maritime data (LLI, IHS, Clarkson, ) categorize casualties as serious / non-serious *. Serious is related to the nature of the event. Causality: Major losses usually result from serious casualties. But the majority of serious casualties is not costly. * Complete definitions (IMO, LLI) at end of presentation. 40

41 Number of serious/non-serious casualties above/below 5 USD mill. Strong increase in serious casualties , but no increase in major losses. Less than 40% of serious casualties had a cost exceeding USD 1 million, 13% a cost exceeding USD 5 million, and 6% a cost exceeding USD 10 million Non-serious / <= 5 MUSD Serious / <= 5 MUSD Serious / > 5 MUSD Non-serious / > 5 MUSD Sources: Lloyd s List Intelligence and Nordic Marine Insurance Statistics (Cefor) as of June

42 Hull Key points Exposure Values Supply/offshore v. drop ~14% for 3 rd year. Bulk v. show some recovery in Inflow of high-value vessels continues. Premiums deteriorate in line with values (or inactivity), while fleet continues to grow. Increasing single-risk exposure. Claims Claim cost per vessel: Stable to downward trend. Total losses: long-term downward trend, but came to a halt with recent fluctuation around 0.1%. Major losses: Strong impact in 2015, few in Volatility in recent results mainly driven by major losses. For Sustainability all risk aspects must be taken into account! Current income levels do not cater for major losses. 42

43 Issues to monitor High-value risks Oil price, fuel quality Changes in regulation (liabilities) Human factor/ Qualification Climate change Astrid Seltmann Astrid Seltmann Fire on RoRo & Container vessels Value accumulation Arctic risks Cyber risk New technology Internet of things/complex technologies Navigation Dagfinn Bakke. Foto by Astrid Seltmann) Dagfinn Bakke, Foto by Astrid Seltmann

44 Global Marine Insurance report Global Marine Insurance Overview Cargo Market & results Hull Market & results Offshore Energy Market & results 44

45 Offshore Energy Premium 2016 Total estimated: 3.6 USD billion / Change 2015 to 2016: -21% (2014 to 2015: -20%)! Malaysia, 3.7% Egypt, 1.8% Nigeria, 1.8% Nordic, 2.4% Italy, 2.2% Japan, 2.7% Brazil, 3.1% USA, 0.4% India, 1.8% Other, 4.4% * UK (Lloyds), 47.1% 2016 Mexico, 7.5% UK (IUA), 21.3% * incl. proportional and facultative reinsurance Kazakhstan and some other countries: no data available. 45

46 Offshore Energy Premium ,000,000 Other USA 5,000,000 Nordic Nigeria 4,000,000 Mexico Malaysia 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Japan Italy India Brazil UK-IUA (2012) UK-Lloyds Kazakhstan and some other countries: no data available. Willis estimated upstream premium 46

47 Offshore Energy Premium IUMI versus Willis estimates IUMI: Premiums reported by national associations. Some double-reporting due to global nature of business. => Overestimation of actual global premium. Willis approach: Based on Lloyds premium (risk codes EC, EN, EM, EY, EZ). Grossed up to 100% by assuming Lloyd s represents 70%. => Underestimation of actual global premium The good news: Both show the same trend! The bad news: the trend is downwards! 47

48 Offshore energy premium Energy mobiles, day rates, oil price 500% Index of evolution, 2000 = 100% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% Average Day Rates Global Offshore Energy Premium Oil price, Brent Crude No. Contracted Rigs * 100% 50% 0% * Global premium adjusted backwards for missing data. Sources: Av. day rates, No. rigs: Clarkson Research; Oil price: World Bank Commodity price data 48

49 Offshore Energy Loss Ratios Underwriting years 1996 to 2016 / incl. liability / data from UK, Nordic, US 350% 2005 Katrina & Rita 300% 250% 2004 Ivan outstanding paid 10th year paid 9th year 200% 150% 100% 50% 2008 Ike no major hurricane activity 2017 Harvey paid 8th year paid 7th year paid 6th year paid 5th year paid 4th year paid 3rd year paid 2nd year paid 1st year still develop, expected to deteriorate further Harvey/Irma impact! 0% Reporting status as of December

50 Offshore Energy Key points Downturn in activity / projects suspended. More risk retained -> Mismatch between capacity and insurable objects. Substantial drop in premiums 2015 and High-profile losses (recent years still develop): 2015: 7 > 100 USD million 2016: 4 > 400 USD million (1 > 1 USD bn) Weather little impact Hurricanes back in 2017 (Harvey, Irma). Oil price recovering, but at low level. The new normal? 50

51 Outlook 2017 Overall income reduction. Major losses Moderate recent impact, but can reoccur any time (2017: Harvey, Irma!) Drive volatility of results. Current income levels do not cater for major losses. Increasing risk exposure (high-value single risks, risk accumulation) may lead to even more costly single major losses. Market environment Moderate trade growth, some oil price recovery, but still at low levels. Climate change/natcat losses. Political and economic uncertainty. 51

52 Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) 52

53 Astrid Seltmann Analyst/Actuary The Nordic Association of Marine Insurers (Cefor) 53

54 Explanation of technical terms Gross premium = Premium for insurance including the provision for anticipated losses (the pure premium) and for the anticipated expenses (loading), including also commission and brokerage but excluding taxes and other contributions on insurance premiums. Before deduction of any ceded reinsurance. Written premium = Complete premium due for insurance policies which start, i.e. are written, in a specific year (= the underwriting year of the policy). Does not give any information on actual premium payments/instalments, i.e. the cash flow. Paid claims = Amounts the insurer has paid for known and registered claims less recoveries. Outstanding claims reserve = Claims reserve for reported, but not yet (fully) paid claims, of which the insurer has an estimation of the total amount to be paid. Includes loss adjustment expenses = Sum of total claims estimates minus any amounts already paid for these claims. Total claim = Paid amounts + outstanding claims reserve for all reported claims. IBNR = Incurred but not reported = additional claims reserve on top of the outstanding claims reserve, and which for claims incurred, but not yet known or registered in the insurer s system. The necessary IBNR reserve is derived by statistical methods based on historical claims ladder statistics. Loss ratio = Claims divided by premiums. Indicator of whether premiums are calculated correctly to match claims and other expenses. Gross loss ratio (in this presentation) = Sum of total claims (and IBNR reserves), divided by gross written premiums Underwriting year basis = Insurance figures are registered with the calender year in which the insurance policy starts, and to which the covered risks accordingly attach to. Example: a policy with cover period has underwriting year Both claims occuring in 2006 and 2007 for risks attaching to this policy are thus attributed to underwriting year The underwriting year is not closed, so underwriting year figures change as long as there are payments related to policies with this underwriting year. Accident year = Claims are registered with the calendar year in which an accident happens. Claims attaching to the same policy may thus be attributed to different accident years. Example: for the policy with cover period a claim occuring in 2007 has accident year 2007, but underwriting year The accident year is not closed, so figures will change as long as there are claims payments related to claims occured in that accident year, e.g. a claim payment made in 2009 for an accident which happened in 2007 will be attributed to accident year Accounting year (also booking year) = Insurance figures, regardless of their original source date, are booked into that year of account which is open at the time of actually entering the figures in the books. Contrary to the underwriting and accident year, the accounting year is closed at some point in time, usually at the end of one calendar year, such that figures do not change any more once the accounting year is closed. These give the insurance results usually published in companies annual reports. 54

55 Definitions of serious casualties IMO (International Maritime Organisation) «Very serious casualties» are casualties to ships which involve total loss of the ship, loss of life, or severe pollution, the definition of which, as agreed by the Marine Environment Protection Committee at its thirty-seventh session, is as follows: «Serious casualties» are casualties to ships which do not qualify as «very serious casualties» and whci involve a fire, explosion, collision, grounding, contact, heavy weather damage, ice damage, hull cracking, or suspected hull defect, ect., resulting in: immobilization of main engines, extensive accommodation damage, severe structural damage, such as penetration of the hull nder water, etc., rendering the ship unfit to proceed, or Pllution (regardless of quantity), and/or A breakdown necessitating towage or shore assistance. «Less serious casualties» are casualties to ship which do not qualify as very serious casualties or serious casualties and for the purpose of recording useful infomration also include marine incidents which themselves include «hazardous incidents» and «near misses». Lloyds List Intelligence (LLI) defines «serious casualties» as follows: Sinkings, groundings where hull damae has been reported, structural damage rendering the vessel unseaworthy, i.e. penetration of hull under the waterline, significan spillage of oil, severe fires causing damage, vessels towed into port, collisions where damage is reported, incident causing nay significant delay. 55