Hui Zhou. China's Monetary Policy. Regulation and Financial. Risk Prevention. The Study of Effectiveness. and Appropriateness.

Transcription

1 Hui Zhou China's Monetary Policy Regulation and Financial Risk Prevention The Study of Effectiveness and Appropriateness & Springer

2 Contents 1 Literature Review and Research Framework Literature Review on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Regulation on Economic Growth and Inflation Literature Review on the Appropriateness of Money Policy Regulation on Asset Price Literature Review on Financial System Risk Prevention and Regulation Literature Review on Systemic Financial Risk Prevention Literature Review on Macro-Prudential Regulation on Financial System Research Content and Framework Content, Research Method, Academic Innovation, Academic Value and Limitations The Content of This Book Mainly Covers the Following Research Methods Theoretical Innovation Limitations 18 2 Effectiveness Study of Chinese Monetary Policy Regulation on Economic Growth and Inflation Retrospect of Chinese Monetary Policy Exploration Stage: From Reform and Opening up to Optimation Stage: From 1993 to Gradual Maturity Stage: Since Intermediary Target: An Important Guarantee for Monetary Policy Effectiveness Interest Rate, an Immature Choice Interest Rate, an Immature Choice Money Supply, an Ideal Choice 26 vii

3 vin Contents 2.3 Empirical Effectiveness Research on China's Monetary Policy Regulation on Economic Growth and Price Level Model Establishment Data Collection and Processing Basic Statistical Characteristics Empirical Analysis Based on MGARCH-BEKK Model Conclusions on the Effectiveness of Money Policy Regulation 31 3 Appropriateness Study of Monetary Policy Regulation on Real Estate Price Real Estate Development and Macro-Control from 1998 to The Development of Chinese Real Estate Industry and Market Government Macro-Control Measures Research Hypothesis and Quantitative Model Selection Hypothesis Research: Based on the Ultimate Goal Hypothesis Research: Based on the Interest Gaming Between Central and Local Government Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Impact on Real Estate Price Quantitative Model Establishment Growth Speed Model Data Collection and Processing Basic Statistical Characteristics Empirical Analysis Based on MGARCH-BEKK Model Empirical Analysis Based on GARCH Mean Equation Model Research Conclusion and Policy Suggestions Basic Conclusion Policy Suggestions 54 4 Appropriateness Study of Monetary Policy Regulation on Stock Price Development Retrospect of China's New Capital Market Development of China's Capital Market in the Recent Decades Policy Factors Affecting China's Stock Market Monetary Policy Impact on Chinese Stock Market Economic Growth Rate Model Fluctuation Correlation Model Data Collection, Processing, and Basic Statistic Characteristics Empirical Analysis Based on GARCH Mean Equation Model Empirical Analysis Based on MGARCH-BEKK Model Research Conclusion and Policy Suggestions 74

4 Contents ix 5 Appropriateness Study of Monetary Policy Regulation on Bond Price Development Retrospect of Chinese Bond Market Bond Development General History Bond Development History From Product Perspective China's Bond Market Versus Overseas Bond Market Description of Policies Affecting China's Bond Market After Affecting Bond Market by Means of Impact on Money Supply Adjusting Bond Market by Affecting Market Interest Rate Setting Market Access Requirements to Adjust Bond Market Adjusting Bond Issuance Approval Progress to Adjust Bond Market Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Bond Market Data Collection and Processing Basic Statistic Characteristics Empirical Analysis Based on GARCH Mean Equation Model Empirical Analysis Based on MGARCH-BEKK Model Policy Suggestions on Improving the Appropriateness of Monetary Policy Regulation on Bond Market Forward-Looking in Monetary Policy Formulation and Implementation Changing Fragmented Regulatory Framework Introducing Government Bond Futures in Due Time to Widen Interest Rate Derivatives Performing Net Settlement Vigorously Promoting Innovative Bond Issuance Improving Market Maker System 97 6 Appropriateness Study of Monetary Policy Regulation on Futures Market Development Retrospect of Chinese Futures Market Promoting Basic System Construction for Laws and Regulations and Vigorously Improving Market Development Basis and Supervision Environment Accelerating Innovation of Commodity Futures Categories, Financial Futures Market Taken Initial Shape Smoothly and Soundly Market Functions Taken Initial Shape and the Capability to Serve the National Economic Development Keeping Improving Transformation in Regulation Ideas and Approaches 101

5 x Contents 6.2 Monetary Policy Impact on Chinese Futures Market Review of Chinese Monetary Policies (1999 July, 2011) Monetary Policy Impact on Futures Market Monetary Policy Impact on Futures Variety Empirical Analysis Based on Chinese Futures Market Data Collection and Processing Basic Statistical Characteristics Empirical Analysis Based on GARCH Mean Equation Model Empirical Analysis Based on MGARCH-BEKK Model Policy Suggestions on Enhancing Monetary Policy Appropriateness and Perfecting Futures Market Study on Chinese Systemic Risk Prevention Systemic Financial Risk Measurement Measurement of Systemic Financial Risk Prewarning of Systemic Financial Risk Model Establishment and Parameter Estimation Description and Selection of Financial Risk Prewarning Indicator Risk Prewarning Indicator System Pressure Index Construction Model and Empirical Test Early Warning Model Test on Currency Crisis Prewarning Model Test on Bank Crisis Prewarning Model Test on Asset Bubble Early Warning on Financial Risks Conclusions and Policy Suggestions Empirical Conclusions Macro-Policy Suggestions Study on Building China's Financial Supervision System Latest Trend of Financial Supervision of Developed Economies and Enlightenment to China Main Content of US Emergency Financial Supervision Main Content of US Financial Regulation Reform Act Main Content of Pan-European Financial Regulatory Act Enlightenment of the New Trend of International Financial Supervision to China Construct China's Macro-Prudential Regulatory System Connotation and Objective of Macro-Prudential Regulation Components of Macro-Prudential Regulatory System 158

6 Contents xi 8.3 Empirical Study on China's Financial Procyclicality and Its Mitigation System Empirical Study on China's Financial Procyclicality Mitigation Mechanism Analysis Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 174 References 181