Risk Workshop Session 1. Malcolm Leinster

Transcription

1 Risk Workshop Session 1 Malcolm Leinster

2 Risk Workshop Team Ashfaque Chowdhury Olivia King-Strydom Matthew Le Lacheur Malcolm Leinster Kevin O Malley

3 Introduction What is risk? Workshop Outline How can we evaluate it? Qualitative risk assessment Hazard identification and risk reduction Semi-quantitative risk assessment Quantitative risk assessment Examples of Quantitative risk assessment

4 What is Risk? Effect of uncertainty on objectives (AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009) Doesn t tell us much that we can apply Risk can be defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences (ISO/IEC Guide 73) Probable consequences of an event Risk = probability x consequences (ASME PCC ) Risk(t) = Probability(t) x Consequences(t) Often interpreted qualitatively according to a risk matrix structure Can be translated directly into meaningful terms such as financial, man-hours, energy units.

5 What is Risk? Risk is not all negative - there can be positive aspects (upside risk) Riding to work on a bicycle can result in accidents affecting the health of the rider [p(t) low, c(t) high]. Most of this downside risk can be managed Riding a bicycle can improve general health [p(t) high, c(t) high]

6 Everywhere! Where is Risk Applicable? Everyone does it to some extent, all the time Banking Most banking relies on lending more money than there is backing, and anticipating that not everyone will call in their debts at once. Global financial crisis 2007 was a result of dishonesty and incompetence, leading to poor risk management Insurance Insurers strive to understand the nature and size of risks, and set their premiums high enough to make a profit Value of premiums = Value of risk + profit

7 Qualitative Risk Assessment Probability 3 Level (ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection) Possible Qualitative Rank or Frequency Annual Failure Probability Low < Moderate High > 0.01

8 Qualitative Risk Assessment Probability 6 Level (ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection) Possible Qualitative Rank or Frequency Annual Failure Probability Remote < Very Low Low Moderate High Very High > 0.1

9 Qualitative Risk Assessment Consequences 3 Level (ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection) Category Safety Consequence Health Consequence Environmental Consequence High Fatality or injury with permanent disability Long-term health effects Major off-site response and cleanup effort Moderate Lost time injury with full recovery expected Short-term health effect with full recovery expected Minor off-site, but possible major on-site response Low First aid only injury Minimal health impact Minor on-site response

10 Qualitative Risk Assessment Consequences 6 Level (ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection) Category Description Examples I Catastrophic Large number of fatalities, and/or major long-term environmental impact. II Major A few fatalities, and/or major short-term environmental impact. III Serious Serious injuries, and/or significant environmental impact. IV Significant Minor injuries, and/or short-term environmental impact. V Minor First aid injuries only, and/or minimal environmental impact. VI Insignificant No significant consequence

11 Qualitative Risk Assessment Consequences 6 Level (ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection) Category Description Economic Loss Range I Catastrophic $100,000,000 II Major $10,000,000 but < $100,000,000 III Serious $1,000,000 but < $10,000,000 IV Significant $100,000 but < $1,000,000 V Minor $10,000 but < $100,000 VI Insignificant < $10,000

12 ASME PCC Risk Based Inspection

13 Companion to AS/NZS 4360:2004

14 Qualitative Risk Categorisation Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix - Level of Risk after AS / NZS 4360:1995 Table D3 Consequences Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic Likelihood Almost Certain S S H H H 4 Likely M S S H H 3 Moderate L M S H H 2 Unlikely L L M S H 1 Rare L L M S S H high risk: Detailed research and management planning required at senior levels S significant risk: Senior management attention needed M moderate risk: Management responsibility must be specified L low risk: Manage by routine procedures

15 Qualitative Risk Assessment 6 x 6 Matrix with Quantitative Guide from CQU Course Asset Management Systems Severity (S) $2.5M 18 $5M $50M 36 $100M $5M 25 $20M 30 $50M $100K 6 $1M $ Likelihood of occurrence (L) Table 2.3: Typical 6 x 6 Risk Matrix (CR Webster & Associates, 2007)

16 Summary of Qualitative Risk Assessment Techniques May be quick (sometimes) Very imprecise output is not particularly useful Gives no real guidance on measures to treat risk Not suitable to evaluate combinations of risks

17 Questions?