Issues and Challenges for Merchant Nuclear

Transcription

1 Issues and Challenges for Merchant Nuclear Edward Kee Vice President U.S. NRC 10 CFR 50.33(f) Financial Qualifications for Merchant Plant COL Applicants 11 Oct 2012

2 Disclaimer The slides that follow are not a complete record of the presentation and discussion The views expressed in in these slides and the discussion today are mine My views may not be the same as the views of NERA s clients or my colleagues 1

3 Nuclear development hurdles Large size and high initial capital cost Long development & construction period High project risk, especially for FOAK units Significant political and public controversy Pervasive regulation of safety and externalities 2

4 Nuclear project cash flow 10+ year development and construction period; high and uncertain capital cost Illustrative Revenue is uncertain over long project life Potential for prolonged outages with high costs and no revenue Significant fixed O&M cost Liabilities for decommissioning and spent fuel disposition Cost Revenue 3

5 Nuclear development approaches Government owned nuclear projects Regulated nuclear projects PPA-based IPP long-term PPA with creditworthy counterparty Merchant project in reformed/restructured electricity industry with formal electricity markets 4

6 Government utility model Vertically-integrated, government-owned electric utility Government Nuclear project Citizens and taxpayers System Dispatch $ TRANSMISSION CONSUMERS MWh DISTRIBUTION $ RETAIL SERVICES 5

7 Regulated utility model Vertically-integrated, regulated, investor-owned electric utility Investors Utility regulator Nuclear project System Dispatch TRANSMISSION CONSUMERS $ MWh DISTRIBUTION RETAIL SERVICES 6

8 PPA-based IPP model Revenue certainty from long-term contract Government Nuclear project Creditworthy power buyer / PPA counterparty 7

9 Merchant nuclear model GENERATION Financial Flows Physical Flows MWh POWER MERCHANTS WHOLESALE MARKET SYSTEM OPERATOR TRANSMISSION MWh RETAIL SERVICES DISTRIBUTION MWh RETAIL CONSUMERS 8

10 Electricity time-scales go from seconds to centuries Before Decades Years Generation investments Physical & financial contracts Reserves & ancillary services Months Weeks Predispatch Hours Seconds Real time Hours Months Years Decades Investment returns Contract settlements Spot market prices Dispatch & market clearing Real time system control After 9

11 Merchant nuclear plants This is really hard none have been built Project and market risk assumed by developer Project cost & completion risk - before COD Project availability and market price risk - after COD Project finance approach strained by High capital intensity and large project size Long development and construction period Lack of revenue certainty Requirements of funding entities 10

12 Helping merchant nuclear Add revenue certainty - PPAs, CfDs, carbon floor price, Production Tax Credits, etc. Reduce development uncertainty streamline nuclear site & license approvals, fund design approvals, US EPAct delay insurance, etc. Help with funding Loan guarantees, etc. Reduce long-tail liabilities and/or make them more predictable e.g. US DOE spent fuel fee 11

13 Merchant nuclear case studies USA UniStar - Calvert Cliffs 3 NRG - South Texas Project 3&4 Turkey UK Akkuyu Rosatom BOO approach 12

14 Trend toward vendor ownership Increasingly, nuclear power plant vendors bring financing to power plant sale (e.g., ECA debt, equity participation, etc.) Government nuclear vendors have access to capital and see this as competitive advantage Extreme case is Rosatom BOO deal Foreign ownership of US merchant plants inconsistent with NRC ownership requirements NB this slide was added to EDK s 14 Sep 2012 WNA presentation 13

15 Contact Us Edward Kee Vice President NERA Washington, DC +1 (202) Copyright 2012 National Economic Research Associates, Inc. All rights reserved.