RISKS. Diane Van Hoy and Jacob Kloos
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1 RISKS Diane Van Hoy and Jacob Kloos
2 Purpose of our Presentation Explain what risks are and the need for identifying them Explore 3 different techniques used to discover, assess, rank, and mitigate risk o o o Risk management Fault tree analysis Failure mode effects analysis Identify the different types of risks that can occur throughout the project life cycle Relate risks to our rover design project
3 Risks Risks are potential events that have a negative impact on safety or project technical performance Risks are unavoidable, but can be mitigated through good planning, project management, learning from past mistakes, extensive testing, thorough analysis of subsystems and their interfaces, etc. It is important to address risks because they jeopardize the success of the mission
4 Risk Management Think about sources, severity, and mitigation of risk Same tools for risk can be used for project opportunities Ongoing and iterative process to improve the likelihood of success Identify, Analyze, Plan, Track, and Control risk Consider entire development and operations life of project
5 Risk identification and Assessment Done by development team, peer review, past experience and expert review Past lessons captured by trigger questions Assess by likelihood and severity Comparison can be done with iso-curves Assessment is subjective and has high uncertainty
6 Underlying Sources of Risks Technical complexity Organizational complexity Inadequate margins or reserves Inadequate implementation plans Unrealistic schedules Over-optimistic designs pressured by mission expectations Limited engineering analysis and understanding due to inadequate engineering tools and models Inadequately trained or inexperienced project personnel
7 5X5 risk matrix Schedule slip Cost Overrun Loss of Power Loss of communication Loss of Mobility Single wheel failure
8 Fault Tree Analysis Fault Tree Analysis uses a top-down symbolic logic model and estimates of failure probabilities of initiators to estimate the occurrence (failure) of the pre-determined, undesirable, top event An initiator is a credible undesirable event that is a contributing cause to top event failure Cut sets are groups of initiators, when taken together, cause top event failure Path sets are groups of initiators that if none occur the top event does not fail FTA is both a design and a diagnostic tool As a design tool FTA is used to compare alternative design solutions and the resulting TOP event probability
9 Fault Tree Analysis Taken from Fault-tree.net
10
11 Fault Tree Analysis
12 Failure Mode Effects Analysis From
13 Risk Types Risk Type Technical Performance Risk Cost Risk Programmatic Risk Schedule Risk Liability Risk Regulatory Risk Operational Risk Safety Risk Supportability Risk Example Failure to meet requirement during test like level of identification accuracy for minerals or communication rate Failure to stay within the cost cap for the project Failure to secure long-term political support Failure to meet a critical launch window Rocket crashes before reaching the moon to deliver rover Failure to get approval for hazardous material like ASRG or faliure to planetary protection requirements Failure of rover: something like a failure to communicate Hazardous material release from ASRGs during ground operations Failure to resupply humans as needed
14 Risks With Our Lunar Rover Design Loss of mobility - in-situ measurements only Loss of communication - end of mission Loss of power - end of mission Main computer failure - end of mission Instrument failure - continue with other instrument Partial loss of mobility - hobble along if possible Overheating and radiation - try to mitigate with radiators and shielding
15 Summary Risk is inevitable, so risks can be reduced but not eliminated. Risk management is a proactive systematic approach to assessing risks, generating alternatives and reducing cumulative project risk. Fault Tree Analysis is both a design and a diagnostic tool that estimates failure probabilities of initiators to estimate the failure of the pre-determined, undesirable, top event. Failure Mode Effects Analysis is a design tool for identifying risk in the system design, with the intent of mitigating those risks with design changes. Risks occur throughout the entire project life cycle
16 Backup Slides
17 Severity Ranking Criteria (FMEA)
18 Severity Level Definitions (FMEA)
19 Occurrence Ranking Criteria (FMEA)
20 Detection Ranking Criteria (FMEA)
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