A Real All-Hazards Risk Assessment Approach. Agenda

Transcription

1 A Real All-Hazards Risk Assessment Approach Daniel M. O Neill TSG Solutions, Inc. Geoffrey Bartlett Tufts University April 10, 2013 Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Risk Assessment Overview 3. About Tufts University 4. Tufts Threat and Risk Assessment Requirement 5. Vendor Selection Process 6. Threat and Risk Assessment Process 7. Methodology 8. Results and Key Findings 9. Next Steps 1

2 Risk Assessment Overview Reasons for conducting a risk assessment: Lack of defined industry standards Risk-based solutions Reduces liability Clear, empirical connection between risk quality and shareholder value performance Security as a Basic Human Need The general public has an unrealistic expectation of pure security; however, they have little interest in the preparedness process. Interest in security peaks during a time of crisis and the public has little to no tolerance for breaches of security. Juliette Kayyem Harvard Kennedy School of Govt. 2

3 Risk Assessment Methods Sandia Risk Assessment Methodology (RAM) CARVER ASIS FEMA DoD ASME Others Standards and Best Practices NFPA 1600 DHS National Infrastructure Protection Plan Sector Specific Plans ASME Risk Analysis Standard for Natural and Man-made Hazards to Higher Education Institutions ASIS FEMA Integrating Man-made Hazards Into Mitigation Planning FEMA 452 Risk Assessment A How To Guide to Mitigate Potential Terrorist Attacks Against Buildings FEMA 426 Reference Manual to Mitigate Terrorist Attacks Internal standards and best practices 3

4 No Guarantees About Tufts University 4

5 Tufts Requirements Standards based Assess hazards And calculate risk Modest budget Use of existing data Project Motivation EMHE Grant Program Comprehensive emergency management FEMA mitigation grants 5

6 Tufts Vendor Selection Process RFP Vendor interviews Final selection Process Utilized Research risk assessment methodologies and develop Tufts specific methodology Develop comprehensive list of applicable hazards and threats Interview University stakeholders and gather relevant campus data Populate and analyze data into risk assessment tool Create report of findings 6

7 Methodology Adjusted Risk= (Vulnerability * Consequence * (Natural Impact Catastrophic * Natural Impact Critical * Natural Impact Limited * Natural Impact Minor) * Relevance) * 100 / (Vulnerability * Consequence * (Manmade Impact Catastrophic * Manmade Impact Critical * Manmade Impact Limited * Manmade Impact Minor) * Relevance + Manmade Site) * 100 / 675 * Faculty + Students + Staff*Building Replacement Value + Special Contents Value + Research Value + Book Replacement Value - Robustness * Resourcefulness * Recovery Adjusted Risk = Total Risk Scaled * Population Scaled * Value Scaled Resiliency Scaled Methodology 1. Inventory buildings and open spaces 2. Document pertinent building assets and construction data 3. Calculate the value of buildings and open spaces 4. Determine the population of buildings and open spaces 5. Calculate the resiliency of each building and open space 6. Calculate the risk to each building and open space a. Identify natural hazards and man-made threats b. Profile hazard and threat events including scientific probability or likelihood of occurrence c. Determine consequence, vulnerability, likelihood of each hazard and threat 7. Calculate adjusted risk 7

8 Results and Key Findings Top risks table Results and Key Findings Replacement value and population tables 8

9 Results and Key Findings Total risk and resiliency tables Results and Key Findings Adjusted risk table 9

10 Factor contribution chart Results and Key Findings Likelihood table 10

11 Insert bus blowing up video Insert bus blowing up video 2! 11

12 Mitigation Practices Preventing and responding to active shooter Focused security assessments Suicide prevention Focus on preventing crimes against women Threat Assessment and Management 12

13 Thank you! 13