Reliability Risk Analysis

Transcription

1 Reliability Risk Analysis and Control August 2, 2012 Andy Rodriquez Director of Reliability Risk Analysis and Control

2 What is Risk? Webster's Collegiate Dictionary Possibility of loss or injury; peril Black s Law Dictionary The chance of injury, damage, or loss; danger or hazard Project Management Institute An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on a project s objectives International Organization for Standardization Combination of the probability of an event and its consequence 2 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

3 What is Risk? IMPACT Risk10 Risk4 Risk2 Risk7 Risk9 Risk3 Risk6 Risk5 Risk8 Risk1 Risk P I PI Risk Six Risk Five Risk Nine Risk Eight Risk Three Risk Ten Risk One Risk Four Risk Seven Risk Two LIKELIHOOD (Impact Likelihood) = Risk 3 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

4 Risk Indicators High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact Low Probability Medium Probability High Probability 4 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

5 How do we deal with Risk? Risk Response Strategies: Avoidance Transfer Mitigation Acceptancep 5 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

6 Risk Responses Avoidance Reduce the likelihood of a risk manifesting (or avoid the problem altogether) Operating within limits; TLR Rescheduling maintenance Building capacity in advance of future demand Not building capacity to avoid a financial loss from reduced demand 6 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

7 Risk Responses Transfer Making it someone else s problem Buying insurance Selling an asset Buying a swap 7 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

8 Risk Responses Mitigation Reducing the Impact of a risk when it manifests Demand Response Programs tobalance Manual Load Shedding to Balance Underfrequency Load dshedding Undervoltage Load Shedding 8 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

9 Risk Responses Acceptance Living with it: Deciding the cost of avoiding, transferring, or mitigating exceeds the cost of the risk if it manifests Load or generation served by a single transmission line Buying on the spot market 9 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

10 What is Reliability Risk? Typical NERC Risk Model Reputational and Strategic Risk Financial Risk Operational Risk BPS Reliability Risk Legall L Risk Residual risk 10 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

11 Reliability Risk Management Avoid and Mitigate All hazards Effective risk controls Impact High Impact Low Frequency (including CIP) Reporting Threshold Learn and Reduce Inverse Cost/Benefit Accept Likelihood 11 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

12 What does this have to do with Cause Codes and Data? NERC is in the process of creating a new committee: the Reliability Issues Steering Committee (RISC) If approved by the Board of Trustees, this committee will be responsible for Evaluating and triaging identified reliability issues and risks Requesting additional research or work as needed to fully understand those issues and risks Recommending strategies to respond to those issues and risks 12 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

13 Proposed RISC Process Prioritized Risk Register Identify Concerns Prioritize and Track the Issue Analyze the Problem Make Improvements Measure Performance 13 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

14 What is Reliability Risk Analysis and Control? Events Analysis RISC Compliance Reliability Assessments RRAC Standards Performance Analysis Standing Committees Other Solutions 14 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

15 Nominating a Risk Problem statement: What specific action, scenario, or behavior is creating a threat to reliability? Harm: How does the problem described directly harm reliability? Basis: What brought this issue to your attention? Risk Estimate: What do you think the Likelihood and Impact of this risk are? Support Materials: What studies and/or research exist to support the risk estimate? Suggestions: What ideas do you have for how to respond to this risk? 15 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

16 Reliability Risk Report Outline Risk Indicator Risk Ranking History Discussion Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Recommended Risk Strategy 16 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

17 Drafting Reliability Risk Reports Initial Risk Nomination Submission RISC Review and Prioritization Events Analysis RISC Report and Recommendation Writing and Ana alysis Research Reliability Assessments Performance Analysis Standing Committees Preliminary Reliability Risk Report Final Reliability Risk Report 17 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

18 Data Mining Shining a light on the Unknown Unknowns Trend Analysis Hypothesis Testing Common Causes Justifying our Priorities Confirming i what htwe already know (or realizing i we don t know as much as we think) 18 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

19 Manifestation of Risk* Individual Elements of Risk Warning Signs * Strategy A Strategy B time * Preventive Successes * Adapted from Malcolm K. Sparrow Low Visibility John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Preventive Successes High Visibility 19 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

20 Evaluating the Likelihood of Reliable Operations Subjective Qualitative Analysis Reactive What happened? Objective Quantitative Analysis Proactive What will happen? Knowledge is power Understanding brings insight Knowing is half the battle 20 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

21 Reliability Risk Informed Decision Making 21 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY

22 Questions? 22 RELIABILITY ACCOUNTABILITY