Using Fuzzy Logic to Pattern Spot across Megaproject Cases. Dr. Athena Roumboutsos Business School Dpt Shipping Trade & Transport

Transcription

1 Using Fuzzy Logic to Pattern Spot across Megaproject Cases Dr. Athena Roumboutsos Business School Dpt Shipping Trade & Transport

2 Introduction Ws Fuzzy Logic Linguistic Variables Small Application Megaproject Cases

3 Ws

4 Ws Who Whom Why What Whichway Whole When Where

5 Ws If you have seen one Case. You have seen one Case Then why do Cases? Ws? How to Compare?

6 Fuzzy Logic

7 Fuzzy Logic (FL) Definition Concepts Usefulness for Case Comparisons Linguistic Variables

8 FL - Definition Fuzzy logic is a precise logic of imprecision and approximate reasoning: an attempt at formalization/mechanization of two remarkable human capabilities: 1. Converse, reason and make rational decisions in an environment of imperfect information 2. Perform a wide variety of physical and mental tasks without any measurements and any computations

9 FL - Concepts Graduation being a degree of something Granulation forming a granule, a clump of attribute-values drawn together by indistinguishability, similarity, proximity or functionality

10 Usefulness for Comparisons Who Whom Why What Whichway Whole When Where

11 Linguistic Variables

12 Linguistic Variables

13 Small Application TRADITIONAL APPROACH

14 Small Application Antwerp Deurganckdok lock Reims tramway and urban transit system Athens ring road

15 Ws

16 Small Application Case Capital Cost Contract Duration Antwerp Deurganckdok lock Reims tramway and urban transit system Athens ring road Common: mn 20 years 413 mn 30 years 1,300 mn (+ 700 mn in parallel works - 100) 23 years Technically demanding projects Usage outside operator control

17 Who (public initiator)? Case Antwerp Deurganckdok lock Reims tramway and urban transit system Athens ring road Common: Who? City + Flemish Government Intercommunal cooperation Greek State Various level of government

18 Why (scope for PPP)? Case Antwerp Deurganckdok lock Reims tramway and urban transit system Athens ring road Common: Why (Finance-based or service-based) finance + risk service + operating costs ESF requirements Time limitations Dense urban areas Availability + operation

19 Whom ( partner)? Antwerp: Reims: Deurganckdok lock at the Port of Antwerp, Private Partner Structure NV Deurganckdoksluis, company, 26% owned by NV Vlaamse Havens, 74% by Port of Antwerp; Port of Antwerp: shareholder of NV Deurganckdoksluis and financial contributor Building consortium: Jan De Nul Dredging (33.33%) CEI-De Meyer and Betonac - both part of Koninklijke BAM Groep (33.33%). Herbosch-Kiere and Antwerpse Bouwwerken both part of Eiffage (33.33%). Lenders: European Investment Bank KBC Bank Reims Tramway, Private Partner Structure MARS (acronym of Mobility Agglomeration RémoiSe) is the concessionaire company composed of a solidary design-builder-operator group: Caisse des dépôts et consignations: 27% Alstom Transport: 17% Transdev: 17% Caisse d'epargne: 17% (8,5% for Caisse d'epargne Champagne Ardenne and 8,5% for FIDEPP, subisdiary company of NATIXIS) Bouygues Construction group: 8.5% Colas: 8.5% Pingat Ingénrierie: 5% -Alstom, Bouygues Travaux Publics, Quille SA, Pertuy Construction et Colas for the building division -Transdev, Pingat Ingénierie, SNC Lavalin for the operating division -Caisse des dépôts et consignations: (investor), Caisse d'epargne Champagne Ardenne and Natixis (financial advice) for the financial division

20 Whom ( partner)? (2) Athens: Athens Ring Road, Private Partner Structure ATTIKI ODOS.A is the concession company (SPV) of the project and undertook, through the concession contract, the design, construction, financing, operation and maintenance of the motorway. Attiki Odos S.A (the concessionaire) was formed as a joint venture of almost all large Greek construction companies. Its current shareholder structure is the following: AKTOR CONCESSIONS S.A.: 59.25% ; J.&P. AVAX S.A.: 21.00% ; ETETH S.A.: 9.82%; ATE BANK S.A.: 9.88%; EGIS PROJECTS S.A.: 0.04%. ATTIKI ODOS CONSTRUCTION JOINT VENTURE is the construction company for the project, a joint venture made up of Greek companies, led by AKTOR S.A., which successfully implemented a complex and difficult project, bringing together the greatest construction companies of Greece. ATTIKES DIADROMES S.A. is the company which has undertaken the operation and maintenance of Attica Tollway. Attikes Diadromes consists of shareholders made up by the Greek stakeholders in the Concession Company, totalling 80%, together with EGIS Road Operation (Transroute international), with a 20% stake. Common Limited number of bidders Exclusivity

21 Summary of Risk Division Design risks and construction (archaeological risk Capped) Whichway? Deurganc k-doklock Reims Tramway Athens Ring Road Private Private Private Maintenance risk Private Private Private Risk of exploitation and industrial Shared Risks in commercial revenue Public Shared Private Financial risk Private Private Private Regulatory risk Shared Public Risk for the deviation of networks Private Private Property risk Public Force majeure Public Shared

22 Which way? (2) Project Construction Cost Deurganck doklock Reims Tramway Athens Ring Road EUR M % EUR M % EUR M % Equity (9) Loans , (38) Capital Grants 24 6, (+700) 26.9 (54) Repayment EUR M % EUR M EUR M % Subsidy 0 Availability Fees (+30,7) End User Revenues 0 Yes Yes 100

23 Where and when? Case Time line Antwerp Deurganckdok lock Reims tramway and urban transit system Contract Award September 2011 Start of Works November 2011 Start of Operations 2016 June 2006 May 2008 April 2011 Athens ring road /2003/200 4

24 The whole Macro-environment Economic and cultural Dependance on traffic: Athens: most Antwerp: least

25 What?

26 Small Application FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH

27 Linguistic Variables Variable Range Granule: What The project Node Link Level of exclusivity Level of direct governance Nationally- Locally driven Finance Service Based Approach Within a Node Competitive environmen t No Governanc e Nationally driven Solely servicebased approach Pure Node Like a Node Like a link Pure Link Not exclusive Quite not exclusive Somewhat exclusive Granule: Who the Public Initiator Limited governance Nationally Some involvement in governance More Nationally driven Involvement in governance More Locally driven Granule: Why the Scope of PPP servicebased approach More servicebased approach More financebased approach Rather Exclusive Significant involvement in governance locally driven financebased approach Within a Link Exclusive Absolute direct governance Locally driven Solely financebased approach

28 Linguistic Variable Business Developer Urban Interurban - Regional Severity of project need Impact / Influence of macroenvironment Business Servicer Variable Range (2) Granule: Whom Private party Business servicer More business servicer More business developer Granule: Where Project Location Urban Outer urban Inter-urban Inter-urban business developer Regional Granule: When Project (Investment) Timing Not very needed No exposure / influence of macroenvironment Needed to a point Very little exposure to macroenvironment Rather needed Granule: Whole Exposure to macroenvironment Needed Some Exposure to macroenvironment Business developer Regional Great need Very severe need Significant Exposure to macroenvironment Extreme exposure to macroenvironment

29 Linguistic Variable Variable Range (3) Granule: Which way Strategy with respect to the contractual agreement (Risk Allocation & Payment Structure) Design and construction Risks Maintenanc e risk Risk of exploitation Commercial revenue risk Financial risk Regulatory risk Force majeure Payment Totally Totally Totally Totally Totally Totally Totally Availability fees and subsidy Availability fees More More More More More More More Shadow tolls and subsidy More public More public More public More public More public More public More public Shadow tolls/ No subsidy public public public public public public public User fees and subsidy Totally public Totally public Totally public Totally public Totally public Totally public Totally public User fees no subsidy

30 Linguistic Variables Values Case Deurganckdok lock Reims Tramway Athens Ring Road Node Link Level of exclusivity Level of direct governance Nationally- Locally driven Finance Service Based Approach Granule: What The project Within a Node Like a Node Competitive Exclusive environment Granule: Who the Public Initiator Absolute direct governance Absolute direct governance More nationally Locally driven driven Granule: Why the Scope of PPP More Financed based approach More service based approach Like a Node Like a link Somewhat exclusive Absolute direct governance Nationally driven Finance based approach

31 Linguistic Variable Variable Range (2) Case Deurganckdok lock Reims Tramway Athens Ring Road Business Developer Urban Interurban - Regional Severity of project need Impact / Influence of macroenvironment Granule: Whom Private party Business Servicer More Business developer Granule: Where Project Location Business servicer Outer urban Urban Outer urban Granule: When Project (Investment) Timing Great need Great need Great need Significant Exposure to macro-environment Granule: Whole Some exposure to macro-environment Significant Exposure to macro-environment

32 Linguistic Variable Variable Range (3) Case Deurganckdok lock Reims Tramway Athens Ring Road Granule: Which way Strategy with respect to the contractual agreement (Risk Allocation & Payment Structure) Design and Totally Private Private Private construction Risks Maintenance Totally Private Totally Private Private risk Risk of Private Totally Private More Private exploitation Commercial Totally Public Totally Private Private revenue risk Financial risk Private Private Private Regulatory risk Totally Public Totally Public Totally Public Force majeure Totally Public Totally Public More Public Payment Availability fees and subsidy User fees and subsidy User fees no subsidy

33 What?

34 MegaProject Cases FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH STEP 1 INPUT FROM TRANSPORT WORKING GROUP LEADER DR JOÃO ANTÓNIO DE ABREU E SILVA

35 Case Description General Info Themes Stakeholders External Internal Project Environment Political Legal Economic Technology Project Management Project Impacts Regional/national strategy (coherence) Not Classified

36 Themes Statements External Stakeholders Involvement of environmental groups/activists Was the envolvment generally supporting the project or against it? The project has national public acceptability (no protest at national level) The project has regional public acceptability (in the region where the project is located) Exposure in the media Easiness of access to relevant information for stakeholders Perceived impact at the local communities Is there a professional public relation initiatives in the project Values None - no involvement at all (1) - total - involved in project stage(5) no(0)-yes(1) none (1) - total support (5) none (1) - total support (5) mainly negative (1) - mainly positive (5) none (1) - complete availability of documents and studies (5) Totally negative (1) - totally positive (5) none (1) - extremely comprehensive public relations initiaves (5) was there any mood change during the project from positive to negative (1) - implementation phase (from planning, design to from negative to positive(5) construction) After the project started operation the public mood from positive to negative (1) - about it changed? from negative to positive(5)

37 What?

38 MegaProject Cases FUZZY LOGIC APPROACH STEP 2

39 FL Graduation Statements Involvement of environmental groups/ activists Values None - no involvement at all (1) Total - involved in project stage(5) 1: (1, 1, 1) 2: (2-x, 2, 2 +x) 3: (3-x, 3, 3 +x ) 4: (4-x, 4, 4+x ) 5: (5-x, 5, 5)

40 What?

41 Q?