Con Edison, Inc. Morgan Stanley Annual Global Electricity & Energy Conference. New York, NY March 15, 2007

Transcription

1 Con Edison, Inc. Morgan Stanley Annual Global Electricity & Energy Conference New York, NY March 15,

2 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements of future expectations and financial measures not determined in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (non- GAAP) financial measures. Actual results might differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements because of factors such as those identified in reports the company has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. For more information, contact: Jan Childress, Director, Investor Relations Ellen Socolow, Manager, Investor Relations

3 Long Tradition, Solid Performance Con Edison, Inc. Parent Net Loss: $32 million (4)% Regulated Utilities Orange and Rockland Net Income: $45 million 6% Con Edison of New York Net Income: $686 million 93% Competitive Energy Businesses Con Edison Solutions Net Income: $8 million 1% Con Edison Energy Net Income: $1 million 0% Con Edison Development Net Income: $30 million 4% Note: For the year ended December 31,

4 Competitive Energy Business Focus Con Edison Development Asset ownership and operation Con Edison Energy Wholesale Con Edison Solutions Retail Own or lease 1,668 MW of generation Leases and investments Asset optimization Fuel management Retail supply management Wholesale supply Standard offer service Commodity Supply Commercial, industrial, governmental, residential Green power Aggregation Energy Services Government performance contracting Utility based DSM programs Utility area-wide contracts 2006 Net Income $30 million (reported) $31 million (excluding MTM) 2006 Net Income $1 million (reported) $2 million (excluding MTM) 2006 Net Income $8 million (reported) $28 million (excluding MTM) 4

5 Con Edison Development Overview of Con Edison Development Name Newington (a) ADA Location New Hampshire Michigan 1 Power Plant Type Base/Peak/ Intermediate Base Base Ownership 95.0% 48.0% Fuel Source Gas/Oil Gas Aggregate Capacity (in MW) (b) Owned Capacity (in MW) GENOR CEEMI Guatemala Massachusetts 2 Intermediate Intermediate 49.5% 100.0% Oil Gas/Oil/Hydro (d) Lakewood New Jersey 3 Intermediate 80.0% Gas/Oil 236 (c) 189 NEISO CEEMI Massachusetts 2 Peaking 100.0% Gas/Oil NYISO Ocean Peaking New Jersey 3 Peaking 100.0% Gas PJMISO Rock Springs Maryland 4 Peaking 100.0% Gas Total Capacity 1,778 1,668 (a) Leased pursuant to a consolidated lease transaction. (b) Subject to a power purchase agreement expiring in (c) Subject to a power purchase agreement expiring in (d) Includes 18MW from five small hydroelectric facilities. 5

6 Con Edison Solutions Con Edison Solutions Highlights Ninth largest ESCO nationwide Profitable every year since 2001 Provides commodity service in eight states and the District of Columbia 200,000 plus customers 10.6 million MWhrs sold in % greater than 2005 Supplies green power in New York and Massachusetts MD DE NY NJ CT NH MA TX 6

7 Con Edison of New York Regulated Business Service Area 3.2 million electric customers 1.1 million gas customers 1,800 steam customers 709 MW of regulated generation 36,000 miles of overhead transmission and distribution lines 93,000 miles of underground transmission and distribution lines 4,300 miles of gas mains 105 miles of steam mains and lines 7

8 Con Edison of New York New York City Job Growth By Sector 2006 Financial services Health care Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Construction Social assistance Educational services Trade, transportation, and utility Other services 8,200 8,100 6,900 6,200 5,200 4,600 3,600 3,300 3,200 Information Manufacturing (1,300) (2,500) Source: New York State Department of Labor 8

9 Con Edison of New York New York City and Westchester Housing Permits Number of New Dwelling Units 35,000 30,000 25,000 New York City Westchester Represents New 32-Year Record for New York City Total to Date Indicated 1,364 1,006 31,599 30,927 20,000 15, year average of 14,434 for New York City 10,000 5,000 1,674 8,987 0 Jan. 2, Jan. 2, Source: U.S. Census Bureau marked the highest two-year stretch since the first reliable construction figures became available in

10 Con Edison of New York New York City Is the Most Energy Efficient Large City in America Average annual residential electricity usage by city Incidence of commuters using public transportation 2000 KWh/customer New York 4,696 New York 53% San Francisco 6,753 San Francisco Chicago 26% 31% Chicago 8,143 Philadelphia 25% Phoenix 13,344 Atlanta 15% Houston 14,542 Los Angeles Houston 10% 6% Dallas 16,116 Dallas 5% Source: Energy Velocity; U.S. Census

11 Con Edison of New York System Peak Demand Forecast MW 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 13,141 1,797 11,344 13,575 1,795 11,780 13,800 1,825 11,975 14,000 1,850 12,150 14,200 1,875 12,325 14,375 1,895 12,480 14,550 1,905 12,645 14,700 1,920 12,780 14,850 1,935 12,915 14,975 1,945 13,030 15,100 1,960 13,140 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, New York City Westchester 11

12 Con Edison of New York Growth in Electric Peak Usage Five-Year Compounded Annual Growth Compounded Growth Rate > 3.0% > 1.5% and 3.0% 1.5% New York City Westchester 12

13 Con Edison of New York Major Substation Construction Program

14 Con Edison of New York M29 Transmission Line Project 9.5-mile, 345-kV line connecting Westchester with upper Manhattan Will add 300 MW to New York City s import capability Improve the system s reliability Allow increased delivery of lower-cost power to customers Will serve portions of Bronx and upper Manhattan Expect to begin construction in 2007 and go in service by 2009 The project is pending regulatory approvals 14

15 Con Edison of New York Unparalleled Reliability Interruptions per 1,000 customers served 1,200 1, National (USA) New York State (w/o Con Edison of NY) Con Edison of NY (non-network) Con Edison of NY (overall) Con Edison of NY (network)

16 Con Edison of New York System Challenges High cost of building and maintaining system Real estate scarcity and price Office buildings constructed in the 1960s planned for average usage of 4-5 watts per square foot compared to office buildings today, which are experiencing average usage of 8-9 watts per square foot 16

17 International Benchmarking 1 ComEd Commonwealth Edison/Exelon Chicago, IL 2 6,560 MW peak Con Edison Consolidated Edison Co. of NY New York, NY ,141 MW peak 3 EDF Energy EDF Energy/EDF Group London, England 4,200 MW peak 4 EDF EDF France/EDF Group Paris, France 3,200 MW peak 5 Hong Kong Electric Hong Kong Electric Company Hong Kong China 7 SMEPC Shanghai Municipal Power Company Shanghai, China 9 KEPKO Kansai Electric Power Company Osaka, Japan 2,560 MW peak 16,680 MW peak 33,600 MW peak 6 CLP China Light & Power Hong Kong China 8 TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Company Tokyo, Japan 7,820 MW peak 64,300 MW peak 17

18 Orange and Rockland Regulated Business Service Area 296,000 electric customers 126,000 gas customers 5,800 miles of transmission and distribution lines 1,830 miles of gas mains Pennsylvania New York Orange and Rockland Connecticut Rockland Electric Pike County Light & Power New Jersey New York City 18

19 Orange and Rockland New Development Spurs 2.3% Annual Growth in Electric Peak Usage Brigadoon housing development in Highland Mills, Orange County Harbors at Haverstraw development in Rockland County 19

20 Orange and Rockland Major Substation Construction Program

21 Orange and Rockland Building Substations to Meet Growing Demand Chester Substation, Chester, NY Orangeburg Substation, Orangeburg, NY Darlington Substation, Ramsey, NJ 21

22 Financial Overview Strategy Provide current income and consistent total returns for shareholders at low risk. Proven track record in regulatory relations Current recovery of all energy costs Reconciliation of major uncontrollable costs Weather normalization for gas Stable balance sheet Earnings growth consistent with conservative, low-risk business model 22

23 Con Edison of New York Infrastructure Investment Millions $2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Actual $1, Actual $1, Actual $1, Actual $1, Budget $1, Forecast $1, Forecast $1,790 Common Plant Steam Gas Electric Depreciation 23

24 Orange and Rockland Infrastructure Investment Millions $ Gas Electric Depreciation Actual $ Actual $ Actual $ Actual $ Budget $ Forecast $ Forecast $125 24

25 Growing Rate Base and Solid Balance Sheet (as of December 31, 2006) Rate Base ($ millions) Capital Structure ($ millions) Target Equity Ratio 48% 50% Con Edison of New York Electric $ 10,415 Gas $ 2,271 Steam $ 1,340 Orange and Rockland Pike Gas $ 1 Pike Electric $ 9 Rockland Electric $ 140 O&R Gas $ 210 O&R Electric $ 375 Long-Term Debt 50.2% $8,298 Preferred Stock 1.3% $213 Common Equity 48.5% $8,004 Total Rate Base $ 14, Expected issuances of new equity: $500 million - $700 million (above issuances through DRIP and employee stock plans). Expected issuances of new l-t debt: $900 million - $1.3 billion. 25

26 A Compelling Dividend Record: 33 Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases Annualized Dividend $2.50 $2.00 One of two utilities in S&P 500 with 25 or more consecutive years of dividend increases $2.32 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.30 $

27 Total Return to Shareholders Average Annual Total Return for Period Ended December 31, Con Edison S&P Year 5 Year 10 Year 25 Year Source: Bloomberg 27

28 Con Edison s Investment Thesis Low-risk T&D model Strong balance sheet A credit rating Deep management Superior dividend track record 28

29 Appendix 29

30 Summary of Rate Plans Effective Rate Rate Amortization Other ROE Sharing Earnings Sharing Terms *** Period Base * Increases ** of Credits Increases Threshold (Shareholders/Customers) Con Edison of New York Electric Apr Yr. 1 $9.3 b Yr. 1 $104.6 m Yr. 1 $128 m $60 m of 11.40% 11.4% 13% 50/50 Mar Yr. 2 $9.6 b Yr. 2 None Yr. 2 $173 m annual TCC >13% 25/75 Yr. 3 $10.3 b Yr. 3 $220.4 m**** Yr. 3 $249 m revenues Gas Oct Yr. 1 $2.0 b Yr. 1 $46.8 m $41 m $35 m of 11.75% 50/50 Sept Yr. 2 $2.1 b Yr. 2 None over 3 yrs annual non- Yr. 3 $2.2 b Yr. 3 None firm revenues Steam Oct Yr. 1 $1.3 b None $53 m 11.00% 11% 12% 50/50 Sept Yr. 2 $1.3 b over 2 yrs >12% 25/75 Orange and Rockland Gas Nov Yr. 1 $235 m Yr. 1 $6.5 m $(3) m 11.00% 11% 12% 50/50 Oct Yr. 2 $242 m Yr. 2 $6.5 m over 3 yrs 12% 14% 35/65 Yr. 3 $251 m Yr. 3 $6.3 m >14% 0/100 * Under Con Edison of New York s electric rate plan, the company is allowed to accrue a full return on increases in net electric transmission and distribution plant above the levels reflected in rates. For the period from April 1, 2005 through December 31, 2006, actual net transmission and distribution has exceeded the net transmission and distribution reflected in rates by $1 billion. The company accrued revenues of $115 million and $38 million in 2006 and 2005, respectively, to reflect the revenue requirement impact of net transmission and distribution difference. ** The Orange and Rockland gas rate plan provides for rate increases in base rates of $12 million in the first year, $0.7 million in the second year, and $1.1 million in the third year. To phase in the effect of the increase for customers, the rate plan provides for O&R to accrue revenues for, but defer billing to customers of, $5.5 million of the first rate year increase by establishing a regulatory asset which, together with interest, will be billed to customers in the second and third years. This chart reflects the phase-in of those rate increases. *** Subject to limitation for cost reconciliations. **** $60 million accrued to income in rate year two. 30

31 Con Edison of New York Summary of Gas Rate Case Filing filed 11/2/2006 Three-year rate plan: October 1, 2007 September 30, 2010 Proposed rate increase RY1 $196.7 million RY2 $ 39.0 million RY3 $ 49.1 million ROE requested 11.6% Equity ratio requested 48.33% Full recovery of fuel costs Continue existing reconciliations Pension and OPEB costs Property taxes, environmental, WTC and interference Projected average rate base at RY1 $2.5 billion 31

32 Orange and Rockland Summary of Rockland Electric Rate Case Filing Filed on June 30, 2006 with New Jersey BPU One-year rate plan: April 2007 through March 2008 Proposed rate increase of $13.2 million, or 7.5% ROE requested 11.0% Equity ratio requested 49.7% Proposed reconciliations Pension and OPEB costs Projected T&D rate base at June 2007 $153.2 million 32

33 Orange and Rockland Summary of Gas Rate Plan Three year rate plan: November 1, 2006 October 31, 2009 Rate increases to be phased in over three years RY1 $6.5 million RY2 $6.5 million RY3 $6.3 million Continued full recovery of fuel costs Reconciliation of pension and OPEB costs, property taxes, and environmental costs 9.8% authorized ROE with earnings sharing threshold of 11% Based on actual equity ratio up to 50% Deferral limitation for earnings above 11% Potential penalties of $1.2 million geared toward gas safety performance and customer service 33

34 Profit Model For a Cost-of-Service Rate-Regulated Utility Capital spending leads to rate base growth, which generally leads to net income growth Growth in rate base requires significant external financing - + +/- Rate Base Net Plant Deferred taxes Working capital Regulatory items + Debt Percent of Capital Preferred Percent of Capital Common Percent of Capital Interest Rate Dividend Rate Cost of Equity Recovered Recovered Net Income 34

35 Growing Earnings Through Infrastructure Investment An Illustration We spend $1.8 billion each year in cap ex One-third, or nearly $600 million, is funded through depreciation The balance of $1.2 billion is funded 50/50 with debt/equity About one-third of the equity funding requirement is met with retained earnings Earnings on the total equity investment at 10% would be approximately $60 million 35

36 Con Edison s Financing Activities Issued $447 million in common stock in September 2006 Raised $120 million in equity through DRIP and employee stock plans Issued $1,200 million in Con Edison of New York bonds for general purposes Issued $500 million in Con Edison of New York bonds to redeem maturing bonds Issued $75 million of O&R bonds for general purposes Expected issuances of new equity: $500 million - $700 million (above issuances through DRIP and employee stock plans) Expected issuances of new l-t debt: $900 million - $1.3 billion 36

37 Con Edison of New York Unparalleled Reliability 2005 Customer Interruption Rate Average Rate = Con Edison Major Utilities Source: Salt River Project Large City Survey 37

38 Con Edison of New York The Electric System Transmission Distribution Generating Station (electricity generated at 13.8 to 22.0 kv) Transformers (voltage stepped up to transmission voltage) Transmission Substation Area Substation (voltage stepped down to distribution voltage) Transformers (voltage stepped down to 480, 208, or 120 V) Feeders Network Customers (residential, commercial, industrial, hospitals, schools, and street and traffic lights) Connection To Others Radial Customers 38

39 Con Edison of New York Meeting Customers Needs New York City Area Substation Capacity 2006 Above 100% 95% to 100% 90% to 94% below 90% 39

40 Con Edison of New York Meeting Customers Needs New York City Area Substation Capacity 2011 Without Capital Projects With Capital Projects Above 100% 95% to 100% 90% to 94% below 90% 40

41 Con Edison of New York Firm Gas Delivery Volumes Forecast BCF Forecast volumes are weather normalized 41

42 Con Edison of New York New York City Employment Thousands 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3, Source: New York State Department of Labor 42

43 43