Economic and fiscal outlook
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1 Economic and fiscal outlook Robert Chote Chairman 22 November 217
2 Coverage and process Five year forecasts, plus assessment of targets Independent BRC responsible for conclusions Met with Chancellor and officials on 3 November Final pre-scorecard forecast on 9 November No pressure to change anything Change in spending profile notified late
3 Key points Weaker outlook for economic growth Growth slightly weaker than expected so far this year Weaker outlook for growth over the medium term Reflects judgements on productivity flagged in October Deficit smaller near-term, but bigger thereafter Deficit smaller than expected and Thereafter weaker economic growth raises borrowing Fiscal policy loosened from to , tightened in Government on course for targets, but not a surplus Structural borrowing and debt targets met with room to spare Forecast changes and giveaway reduce room for manoeuvre Balancing budget in medium term looks even more challenging
4 Quarterly GDP growth Percentage change on a quarter earlier March 217 November 217 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217
5 Quarterly GDP growth Percentage change on a quarter earlier March 217 November 217 Q1 216 Q2 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 Q3 217
6 Annualised GDP growth Per cent (annualised) H2 217 Q1-Q3.5. Euro area US Canada* Japan UK
7 GDP, hours and productivity Q4 216 to Q3 217 growth (per cent) GDP March November
8 GDP, hours and productivity Q4 216 to Q3 217 growth (per cent) GDP Hours Productivity. March November March November March November
9 Potential output judgements Potential hours worked Adult population Activity rate Employment rate Average hours Productivity Output per hour
10 Productivity growth 29Q1 = November 217 Successive forecasts June 21 Outturn
11 Net inward migration 35 3 Thousands of people Estimate 214-based 216-based
12 Net inward migration profile Thousands of people Difference 214 based 216 based Age
13 Participation rate Per cent March November
14 Unemployment and wages Per cent Unemployment rate Wage growth
15 Average hours worked March 217 November 217 Outturn Average hours
16 217 Q2 = 1 Potential and actual GDP growth March (potential) November (potential) March (actual) November (actual) Q2 218Q3 219Q4 221Q1 222Q2
17 217 Q2 = 1 Potential and actual GDP growth March (potential) November (potential) March (actual) November (actual) Q2 218Q3 219Q4 221Q1 222Q2
18 217 Q2 = 1 Potential and actual GDP growth March (potential) November (potential) March (actual) November (actual) Q2 218Q3 219Q4 221Q1 222Q2
19 Quarterly GDP growth Percentage change on a year earlier March 217 November 217
20 Cumulative GDP growth revision 1..5 Percentage points Other factors Net trade Government spending Dwellings investment Business investment Private consumption GDP Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q
21 Actual GDP growth November March Per cent
22 Actual GDP growth Per cent November March
23 Nominal GDP growth Percentage point revision to growth from to Sustainable unemployment Participation rate Average hours Population growth Potential output growth Productivity growth Lowering nominal GDP Increasing nominal GDP Whole economy prices Other Change in factors nominal GDP growth forecast
24 Nominal GDP growth Cumulative percentage growth, to March November Difference Nominal GDP Wages and salaries Non-north sea profits Nominal consumer spending Real business investment
25 Earnings growth: March Nominal earnings growth Real earnings growth Per cent
26 Earnings growth: November Nominal earnings growth Real earnings growth Per cent
27 Public sector net borrowing billion March 14 November
28 Public sector net borrowing billion March 14 November
29 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
30 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
31 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
32 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
33 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
34 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
35 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
36 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
37 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
38 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
39 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
40 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
41 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
42 billion Underlying forecast revisions Latest data Productivity Average hours Sustainable unemployment Population projections Fiscal modelling Other economy changes Total
43 LA current spending vs budgets billion Overspend against budgets Underspend against budgets Environmental and regulatory Highways and transport Fire & rescue and police Housing and planning & development Adult social care Children's social care Central and cultural & related services Public health Total *Excludes education spending
44 Changes to LA reserves billion GLA Non-social care Social care Total
45 7 6 LA current spending Per cent of GDP Education Non-education Total
46 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
47 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
48 Profile of resource spending 1 Cumulative change in real spending per capita March November
49 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
50 Profile of capital spending Cumulative change in real spending per capita March November
51 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
52 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
53 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
54 Impact of Budget decisions billion RDEL policy changes CDEL policy changes AME policy changes Gross tax cuts Gross tax rises Indirect effects Total
55 St Augustine rides again Average effect of Government decisions on PSNB (per cent of GDP) Autumn Budget 217 Spending Review 21 to Spring Budget Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
56 Impact of policy decisions: Individual fiscal events Cumulative effect Per cent of GDP Dec 13 Mar 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15 Mar 16 Nov 16 Mar 17 Nov 17
57 Change in net borrowing 25 billion ONS statistical changes Underlying forecast changes Effect of government decisions HAs moved to private sector Total
58 HA classification The fundamental question is does government exercise significant control over the general corporate policy of the unit? The difference between the public and private sectors is determined by where control over the organisation lies, rather than by ownership or whether or not the entity is financed from public funds. (Office for National Statistics)
59 DCLG on reclassification I Today we re [sic] reclassifying housing associations, taking them out of the public sector and off the government s balance sheet. I know it sounds like a piece of bureaucratic box-ticking. But the results will be far-reaching. Freed from the distractions of the public sector, housing associations will be able to concentrate on developing innovative ways of doing their business, which is what matters most: building more homes. (DCLG SoS, 16 November)
60 DCLG on reclassification II The only reason these regulations have been introduced is to seek ONS to reclassify housing associations to the private sector. In preparing [them], we have ensured that these only go as far as we have to, to reclassify housing associations Local authorities remain able to influence housing associations through the various contracts and other agreements jointly negotiated. (DCLG written evidence to HoL, Sept/Oct)
61 HA impact on public finances (March) Per cent of GDP Net borrowing Per cent of GDP Net debt
62 HA impact on public finances (November) Per cent of GDP Net borrowing Per cent of GDP Net debt
63 The Government s targets
64 Fiscal mandate 1 Per cent of GDP November March
65 Fiscal mandate 1 Per cent of GDP November March
66 Mandate: room for manoeuvre Headline Like-for-like bn %GDP bn %GDP Margin in March Reclassification and accounting changes Underlying forecast changes Government decisions Margin in November
67 Fiscal mandate: November Per cent of GDP Target: structural deficit <2% of GDP in November March 1.3% of GDP deficit implies a 65 per cent probability of being met
68 Public sector net debt March November Per cent of GDP Debt falls 3.9% of GDP in
69 Public sector net debt March November Per cent of GDP Debt falls 3.% of GDP in
70 Public sector net debt Per cent of GDP March November Change of which: Housing associations Term funding scheme Budget measures Other underlying forecast changes Nominal GDP
71 Change in net debt in Per cent of GDP March forecast -.3 Lower nominal GDP +.5 Policy measures +.3 Underlying forecast changes +.1 HAs out of public sector -.1 UKAR and asset sales -.5 November forecast (-.3)
72 The welfare cap billion Welfare cap and pathway plus margin November forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (November) March forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (March)
73 The welfare cap billion Welfare cap and pathway plus margin November forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (November) March forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (March)
74 The welfare cap billion Welfare cap and pathway plus margin November forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (November) March forecast adjusted for inflation Headroom (March)
75 The fiscal objective The Charter commits the Government to return the public finances to balance at the earliest possible date in the next Parliament Even more challenging than March Deficit only falls 1.1% of GDP in , compared to.7% of GDP in in March If deficit were to continue falling at post Spending Review rate it would not balance until And ageing and other spending pressures in health
76 Conclusion Weaker outlook for the economy Trend productivity growth revised down But some offsets from hours and employment Fiscal outlook deteriorates over time Deficit revised down last year and this year Weaker economy raises borrowing thereafter Budget adds more to borrowing Fiscal mandate met, but headroom halved Balancing budget more challenging
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