MEETING MINUTES Welcome by Diane

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1 AASHTO Technical Committee on Cost Estimating October 8 and 9, 2004 Mobile, AL Meeting Minutes, Work Plan, and Action Items MEETING MINUTES Welcome by Diane This Technical Committee (TC) on Cost Estimating owes the AASHTO Subcommittee on Design a work plan. The ultimate goal of this TC is to create an AASHTO position regarding a recommended policy on best practices for how to develop estimates. The ultimate goal of the TC is to prepare written policies/guidelines. The history of this TC can be traced back to the Transportation Estimators Association (TEA) which held their first conference around 1989/90. Initially, the focus of the TEA was letting estimates. The TEA continually petitioned AASHTO for recognition. In response, AASHTO created this TC under the subcommittee on design. The first meeting of the TC was last September. Half of the TC was mainly concerned with letting estimates and the other half with programming estimates. A concern of the TC is if the NCHRP 8-49 project will be doing the same thing as the TC. Usually, AASHTO TC usually put out guidelines and manuals (e.g. Green Book). The TEA has expressed a need for guidance on program and letting estimates and guidance on how to analyze bids. It seems many are craving guidance. The next conference is in Daytona Beach, Florida during the 1 st week of November INTRODUCTION OF TC MEMBERS The members of the TC introduced themselves and discussed what was happening in each state. Diane Heckemeyer (MO) There may be a change in the DOT structure to create a DOT Secretary who would report directly to the Governor. Jim Frick (SC) South Carolina is in the middle of a 7-year bonding program. The capacity of the highway construction industry has been maxed out and the state is now getting high bid prices by Contractors.

2 Greg Davis (FL) Florida is working on improving programming estimates. Greg is a panel member on the NCHRP 8-49 project. Roger Bierbaum (IA) Iowa is in the process of replacing the major freeway through Des Moines. Norie Calvert (MD) Maryland has two major projects, the Intercounty Connector and the Woodrow Wilson Bridge projects, both near Washington, DC. Maryland uses cradle to grave Project Management. John Riedl (OR) Oregon is using bonds, which results in an increase to the yearly program from $250 million to $2 billion. The DOT is also reorganizing. John recommends that the TC review his indexing report and determine if this is something that AASHTO should adopt. Mike Fowler (VT) Vermont uses Estimator, which gives estimates consistency. Vermont is implementing recommendations from the recent peer review. Dr. Cliff Schexnayder (NCHRP consultant) Dr. Cliff Schexnayder prepared the recent NCHRP synthesis on cost estimating. The current NCHRP report will result in cost estimating guidance. The report will be done in about a year. Kelly Donnell Kelly is a grad student at Texas A&M working with Dr. Cliff. Janet Blacik (MN) Minnesota has not had much success with the Length/Width/Depth method for conceptual estimates. Minnesota may start using Transport now. Jay Drye (WA) A recent nickel gas tax and bonds will result in a larger program. WSDOT must meet tight scopes and intermediate milestones (especially on big projects). WSDOT believes that you must wait until you know the scope before you make an estimate public. Frank Csiga (NV) This year has been a challenge for NV. Estimates are up 30%. There is a need for better scopes from their planning group and MPOs. Nevada has two large projects: the Hoover Dam bypass and the Carson bypass. Jeff Hisem (OH) Ohio has a new program called, Jobs in Progress. It will result in $300 million additional per year. It is based on expected revenue from a new highway bill with more donor funds for Ohio, some ethanol tax relief, bonding, and a 6-cent gas tax. There is a difference between letting and programming estimate that should be noted. A letting estimate is a benchmark for awarding contracts. Ohio has a lot of Design/Build projects (about $300 million). Ohio plans to generate best practices for their districts and will involve consultants.

3 David Kent (for Sam Zhou) (NY) New York is using Estimator and is looking at using Transport for earlier estimates. The Commissioner is in the process of reorganizing the DOT. Travis Koestner (MO) Missouri completes preliminary plans before placing projects on the STIP. The initial estimate for a 15-year plan, based on a 6-cent gas tax increase has doubled. As a result, Missouri has credibility issues similar to what WSDOT recently experienced. Missouri has focused on scoping and estimating. There is a new scoping process and an increased effort to manage the project afterwards. Missouri uses in-house software for their estimates. Maria Burke (TX) Texas lets $4 billion worth of projects per year. Texas has a need for a consistent way to do estimating. Texas has developed recommendations for preliminary estimates and is developing a program to track estimates. There is a need to compare initial costs and final costs, not letting bids. What happens between letting and final costs? Representatives from New Jersey and Mississippi were absent. George Bradfield (GA) joined the meeting after this discussion. NCHRP 8-49 Project Dr. Cliff Schexnayder discussed the NCHRP 8-49 project, Procedures for Cost Estimation and Management for Highway Projects During Planning, Programming, and Preconstruction. The interim report was mailed yesterday and the NCHRP panel should receive it shortly. They should be meeting scheduled sometime in November in DC for the panel to discuss the interim report. Dr. Cliff Schexnayder is hopeful that he will be able to give the interim report to the AASHTO Technical Committee for comments. Dr. Cliff Schexnayder said that the report would discuss Strategies, Methods and Tools. The Strategies are: Management Scope/Schedule Off-prism (External participants and conditions that can impact a project cost.) Risk Delivery and Procurement Method Document Quality Estimate Quality Integrity

4 The report will include that a strong outreach program to the industry during the design development process is valuable. Also, DOT s needed to be able to say no to scope increases. There is little literature available on highway estimates and how to manage them. Some DOT s have cost estimating manuals, some don t. Some DOT s send their employees to training and some don t. It was noted that if a DOT doesn t have a practice identified, how could you have training? The following management issues will be covered in the report: For the Planning Estimate Communication Conceptual software Red flag items Recognition of project complexity For the Program and Preliminary Design Estimate Scoping Documents State estimating departments Communication Cradle to grave estimators. Public Involvement Year of construction costs Conceptual estimating software Scope change form Management Plan Cost containment table Risk Gated process Checklist Project baseline Value Engineering Manual Design to cost Training scorecard Management of ROW, utilities, and environment issues For the Final Design Estimate Estimate and management software Estimate review The Guidebook will have the following layout: Introduction Issues and Strategies Guideline Framework Long-Range Planning Programming and Advanced Final Design Implementation Path Forward Summary Challenges Glossary of Terms Appendix

5 The Technical Committee then commented on the NCHRP Study: The guidebook should state how should cost based estimating be considered. Cost based estimating should be discussed in great detail, including cost estimation by task and whether Estimator set up to do cost based estimating. Specific performance measures that are tied to the tools should be included in the guidebook. State DOT s need a ranking of tools and need to know how you measure the success. It should not be just an inventory of tools. The guidebook should include what is good about the process and what is bad and what the process should be used for. For example, should it be used for comparison of alternatives or should it be used to compare to the final cost. The guidebook will include tools for good public involvement. There was a concern that since the scope of the NCHRP study is for estimates from conception to completion that the guidebook may not have the depth needed. Tools to determine delivery and procurement methods are needed. Maryland is one state that does have a process to determine the procurement strategy for contracting. The Technical Committee then discussed some concerns: The Study will gather problems and issues that State DOT s are identifying and present tools to help. How will the guidebook identify which tools work best and how they should be used? Dr. Cliff Schexnayder will go back to panel and propose a ranking system. He would also like to go before the Technical Committee on Cost Estimating and back to other AASHTO committees. He hopes to get input for write-ups for each tool from the Technical Committee on Cost Estimating. The Technical Committee wanted to know if cost-based estimating would be recommended and what level of detail will cost-based estimating be discussed. Dr. Cliff Schexnayder said that the final product will be a workbook, not a how to manual. There will not be a recommendation to do cost-based estimating over historical bid based estimating. It appears that the NCHRP Study does not include much on the final or bidding estimate. DEFINITIONS The consensus of the Technical Committee was to have 3 categories of estimates. The first category was the Conceptual or Initial Estimate. In some cases the relative dollar amount is expressed as a range used for decision making to proceed with project development. This estimated is prepared prior to the NEPA decision document. Usually quantities have not been determined. The estimates are prepared for the range of

6 alternatives evaluated under NEPA. This is estimated project cost prior to NEPA approval. The second category is the Preliminary Estimate. This is done for the selected alternative. This estimate can be based on some quantities. This estimated project cost begins with NEPA approval up to the PS&E estimate. The third category is the Final Estimate. This is the final PS&E estimate and is developed when all quantities are known. If there are existing AASHTO definitions of project phases and estimates, they will need to be included in any guidance manual on estimating from this TC. Cost Risk Assessment and CEVP (Monica and Jay) Risks can be accounted for in estimates by use of the traditional contingency where all known and unknown risks are equally weighted and there is little knowledge of project risks. Risks can also be accounted for in estimates by the use of a Risk Assessment where known risks are weighted and identified. A Risk Assessment can also identify opportunities. The Washington State DOT believes that by formalizing a risk assessment, communication of project costs and schedule to the public is improved. In addition a validation process is added to the project and project management can be improved because there is now a focus on risk management and mitigation. CEVP does this by separating the base and risks costs and identifies risk individually. A CEVP workshop results in a risk ranking of the top risk events. WSDOT does have a list of project risks from previous workshops that they may be able to share. CEVP can be preformed at any stage of a design. WSDOT has conducted a CEVP workshop on 75 projects over 2 years. Since none have completed construction yet, the results cannot be measured, however it is apparent that risk management may have improved. CEVP has helped WSDOT to gain legislative trust. Although WSDOT tries to manage projects at a 50% probability, WSDOT still budgets projects at 90% probability. The main question for this TC is: Should AASHTO identify CEVP as a best practice? FHWA Activities The FHWA is working on two initiatives. The first is a 2-day cost estimating course for those who manage or oversee the preparation of cost estimates. The audience for this

7 course is both FHWA and State DOT managers. Two pilot courses will be conducted. The first is in Washington, DC in November and the second is in Atlanta in December. The FHWA would like to invite TC members to attend either course and provide their evaluation. The FHWA is hoping that AASHTO TC can recommend to AASHTO to support this course. Eventually, the NHI may institutionalize this course. The FHWA will pay travel costs for a limited number of TC members. The second initiative is to create a peer group of State and FHWA experts for the purpose of cost estimate reviews and process reviews. FHWA has already begun these reviews and would like AASHTO support of this initiative. Price Indexes John John began the discussion by noted that many material prices (steel, plywood, concrete) have substantially increased recently. These increases can be attributed to supply, delivery capabilities, and changing demand. Invoice-based: John noted that an invoice-based index in Idaho did not work and Florida reported concerns about their invoice-based method after a 6-month trial due to problems with the quality of data. Overall, an invoice-based index can be difficult to administer, audit, and manage. PPI-BLS (Cost) based: There are concerns with a cost basis index, too. An index number may not be final for 6 months. Which index do you use? There are many out there and the index you chose may be too reactive for real market conditions. The following states are either using or may be testing a steel index: Idaho, Florida Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Maryland, and Utah. Recommendations: The use of any index should be justified with a risk analysis. Indexes do not sunset easily. You need to select proper commodity, i.e. commodities associated with demonstrated long term supply shortages. Also, select high-risk projects and apply indexes on a project-by-project basis to reduce paperwork. Select an index with lower variance that reflects longer rather than shorter price trends high variance indexes should be avoided. A joint research proposal with the Subcommittees on Design and Construction may be useful in developing AASHTO policy and guidelines for implementing indexes.

8 WORK PLAN What will this committee work on during the next year? The work plan for this TC should accomplishments of the past year and proposed work in the coming year. It should also include a 5-year plan for developing and or updating publications, with a summary of current and proposed research topics. The work plan needs to be submitted one month prior to the AASHTO Subcommittee s annual meeting. The following are the TC Goals for this year: Goal 1: To develop guidance on preparing final estimates. Schedule: Draft of this guidance to be completed by the 3 TC sub-teams prior to 2/1/05 TC will review draft and provide comments to the 3 TC sub-teams prior to 4/1/05 Comments will be incorporated by the 3 TC sub-teams prior to 5/1/05 General: This guidance will be prepared using MS Word and will be in the imperative mood/active voice. The guidance will address Who, What, Where, Why, When, and How. Janet will edit the complete document and can provide format direction. Once the revised draft is completed, the TC will obtain comments on the guidance for states not represented on the TC. Jeff has list of cost estimating contacts from the States and can share with TC. FHWA survey and NCHRP Synthesis also has State information. Purpose: To outline recommended procedures for preparing final estimates and for reviewing bids prior to concurrence in award. To provide guidance for improving pre-bid, bid review and evaluation policies and procedures. Section on Preparing Final Estimates (Cost Based Estimating) Sub-team: Travis (Team Leader), Maria, Greg, and Norie General Overview Pros and Cons Major Items (Earthwork, Base, Drainage, Paving, Structures) Unique and Lump Sum Items Reference Material (Dodge Guide, Means, State references) Tools (Software, Worksheets, Publications, Resources) Skill Sets Required Section on Preparing Final Estimates (Historical Bid Based Estimating) Sub-team: Frank (Team Leader), Jay, and Jim F General Overview

9 Pros and Cons Major Items (Earthwork, Base, Drainage, Paving, Structures) Unique and Lump Sum Items Reference Material Tools (Software, Worksheets, Publications, Resources) Skill Sets Required Section on Bid Analysis and Contract Award Sub-team: Jeff (Team Leader), Roger, John, Mike, and David - General Overview - Terminology - What part the Final estimate plays and what other factors are considered? - Market conditions (Competition analysis single bids, first time bidders) - Unbalanced bidding (use of cost based for large items, compare bidders) - Budget (what could be re-packaged to meet existing budget) - Who is involved in the review? - Verify that the estimate (quantity error) is correct (defective procurement) (Estimate committee review details of estimate) - Analyze bids - Explain differences - Report findings to award/bid review committees (make up of committees/one person) - What award/bid review committees need to consider? - Different procurements (Design/Build, Design/Bid/Build) - Recognizing State statutes - Collusion (note irregularities) - Tools (Comparison of major discrepancies between bid and final estimate) Pros and Cons Major Items (Earthwork, Base, Drainage, Paving, Structures) Unique and Lump Sum Items Reference Material Skill Sets Required Goal 2: To review the draft report from the NCHRP 8-49 Study The TC would like to be involved in reviewing the milestone deliverables of the NCHRP 8-49 study. This would assist in making the information relevant to the needs of the State DOTs. Goal 3: To evaluate the new FHWA Cost Estimating Training course The TC would like to attend the course and provide comments to the FHWA. This will assist in assuring that the subject matter is relevant to the needs of the State DOTs.

10 Goal 4: To assist the FHWA in cost estimate project and process reviews The TC would like to work with the FHWA in developing a peer review program to utilize State DOT expertise in the review of project cost estimates and during FHWA process reviews of State DOT cost estimating. Ultimate Technical Committee Goal: To have guidance on cost estimating from cradle (conceptual) to grave (final).

11 ACTION ITEMS Action Item Name Due Ask Jim McDonnell (AASHTO) why the research Diane Heckemeyer project on index guidelines was rejected Sent copy of Index presentation to TC members John Riedl Ask for a resolution at the TEA meeting for Diane Heckemeyer continual funding of meeting rooms if meeting and Jeff Hisem during the TEA conference Prepare comprehensive FHWA Major Projects Jim Sinnette definition Ask for process from AASHTO on soliciting Diane Heckemeyer comments from other states on the TC work plan or proposed guidance Send any written state DOT policies or procedures All TC members on cost based or historic bid based estimating to the TC sub-team writing the draft guidance Send any written state DOT policies or procedures All TC members for bid analysis and contract awards to the TC subteam writing the draft guidance Ask AASHTO for the process to replace TC Diane Heckemeyer members after the leave Prepare a draft policy paper for a Jim Sinnette AASHTO/FHWA peer review program for cost estimate project and process reviews Coordinate attendance of TC members at the Jim Sinnette FHWA cost estimate training class Date Status

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