Professor Christina Romer. LECTURE 22 FISCAL POLICY April 14, 2016

Transcription

1 Economics 2 Spring 2016 Professor Christina Romer Professor David Romer LECTURE 22 FISCAL POLICY April 14, 2016 I. REVIEW OF THE KEYNESIAN CROSS DIAGRAM A. Determination of output in the short run B. What causes short-run fluctuations? C. Another example of a shift in the expenditure line: A rise in animal spirits D. Other factors that shift the expenditure line II. FISCAL POLICY IN THEORY A. Definitions B. Example: A tax cut 1. How does a tax cut affect PAE? 2. Effects on output in the short run C. Countercyclical fiscal policy III. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY: DISCUSSION OF THE ROMER AND ROMER PAPER A. The difficulty in estimating the effect of tax changes on output B. Romer and Romer s approach C. Empirical estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes D. Evaluation IV. CASE STUDY: THE 2008 RECESSION AND THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE A. Causes of the 2008 recession B. Issues in designing the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act C. Estimates of the effect of the Recovery Act

2 Economics 2 Spring 2016 Christina Romer David Romer LECTURE 22 Fiscal Policy April 14, 2016

3 Announcements We have handed out Problem Set 5. It is due at the start of lecture on Tuesday, April 19 th. Problem set work session this Friday, April 15 th, 4:30 6:30 p.m. in 648 Evans.

4 I. REVIEW OF THE KEYNESIAN CROSS DIAGRAM

5 Determination of Short-Run Output Equilibrium condition: Y = PAE Output responds to demand in the short run Referred to as the 45-degree line Planned spending is a function of output: PAE = C + I p + G + NX Where C depends on Y T Referred to as the expenditure line

6 Determination of Short-Run Output PAE Y

7 What Causes Short-Run Fluctuations? Anything that shifts the expenditure line will cause output to change in the short run.

8 Example: A Fall in Autonomous Consumption A fall in consumption not caused by a fall in output. A decline in the intercept of the consumption function (C).

9 A Fall in Autonomous Consumption PAE Y=PAE PAE 1 PAE 2 Y 2 Y* Y

10 Example: A Rise in Animal Spirits Suppose that something causes firms throughout the economy to raise their expectations of the future MRP K.

11 A Rise in Animal Spirits PAE Y=PAE PAE 1 Y* Y

12 What Shifts the Expenditure Line?

13 Two Types of Macroeconomic Policy Fiscal policy: Actions taken by the government to change the budget surplus. Monetary policy: Actions taken by the central bank to affect nominal and real interest rates.

14 II. FISCAL POLICY IN THEORY

15 Fiscal Policy Terminology Government budget surplus: Tax revenues Government purchases (T G) Contractionary fiscal policy: Actions that increase the government budget surplus. Will decrease PAE at a given level of Y. Expansionary fiscal policy: Actions that decrease the government budget surplus. Will increase PAE at a given level of Y.

16 Federal Budget Surplus and the Bush Tax Cuts Percent of GDP Source: Congressional Budget Office.

17 Substituting the Consumption Function into PAE C = C + c (Y T) PAE = C + I p + G + NX = C + c (Y T) + I p + G + NX = C + cy ct + I p + G + NX = (C ct + I p + G + NX) + cy PAE Intercept Term

18 Short-Run Effects of a Tax Cut PAE Y=PAE PAE 1 Y 1 (Y*) Y

19 Combining the Effects of a Fall in Autonomous Consumption and a Tax Cut PAE Y=PAE PAE 1 Y* Y

20 Countercyclical Fiscal Policy Changes in the budget surplus (through changes in taxes or government purchases) to try to counteract other factors likely to cause a short-run fluctuation.

21 III. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF FISCAL POLICY: DISCUSSION OF THE ROMER AND ROMER PAPER

22 Difficulty in Estimating the Effect of Tax Changes

23 How do Romer and Romer try to deal with this difficulty?

24 Exogenous Tax Changes Source: Romer and Romer, The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes.

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26 Specification ΔY is the percentage change in real GDP. ΔT is the new measure of exogenous tax changes (as a percent of GDP). The regression estimates the relationship between output growth and the contemporaneous and lagged values of tax changes. We expect a negative relationship.

27 Baseline Estimates Source: Romer and Romer, The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes.

28 Evaluation Do you trust the narrative sources? Is narrative analysis reproducible? Does this approach deal with omitted variable bias successfully?

29 IV. CASE STUDY: THE 2008 RECESSION AND THE FISCAL POLICY RESPONSE

30 House Prices, Case-Shiller House Price Index, January 2000 = April Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED.

31 Effects of the Housing Bubble

32 U.S. Household Debt Source: Mian and Sufi, Consumers and the Economy, Part II: Household Debt and the Weak U.S. Recovery.

33 What happened when the bubble burst?

34 Single-Family Housing Starts Source: Economic Report of the President, February 2010.

35 Source:

36 Credit Spreads during the Financial Crisis Source: Economic Report of the President, February 2010.

37 Stock Prices during the Financial Crisis Source: Economic Report of the President, February 2010.

38 What happened to PAE in 2008?

39 Effect of the Housing Bust and the Financial Crisis on Output PAE Y=PAE PAE 1 Y* Y

40 Percentage Change in Real GDP Percent Change (at an Annual Rate) I 2001-I 2002-I 2003-I 2004-I 2005-I 2006-I 2007-I 2008-I 2009-I 2010-I 2011-I 2012-I 2013-I 2014-I 2015-I Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED

41 Issues in Designing the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus How big should it be?

42 Issues in Designing the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus What should the composition be?

43 Fiscal Stimulus in the Recovery Act through August 2009 Source: CEA, The Economic Impact of the ARRA of 2009, First Quarterly Report.

44 Issues in Designing the 2009 Fiscal Stimulus How long should it last?

45 Estimates of the Impact of the Recovery Act Source: CBO, Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output, February 2011.