Oil price down 0.49% to $63.53pb ahead of Nov. 30 meeting. Nigeria s domestic debt payment gulps N3.49trn in 3 years (N1.

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1 Burning economic issues Oil price down 0.49% to $63.53pb ahead of Nov. 30 meeting Ghana cuts policy rates by 1% (4 th time in 2017), GDP growth at 9% Nigeria s domestic debt payment gulps N3.49trn in 3 years (N1.16mn annually) Tiger brands FY 17 EPS spikes 1.6% to 2,161 cents (After Dangote divestment) 500 Nigerian tax defaulters to be identified (VAIDS) Cocoa output to surge 2.2mn tonnes on Ivory Coast bumper harvest Naira slips to N365/$ (parallel), N360.25/$ (IEFX)

2 Economic News Good News CBN boosts dollar supply to the forex market ($288mn) External reserves reach a 3-year high at $34.9bn - CBN Bad News Debt service burden to put pressure on recurrent expenditure (66% of revenue) Diesel price at N200/liter

3 Commodity in focus - SUGAR Total Global Output: 167.8mn tonnes, 2017/2018 growth forecast 6.8% Sugar price lost 30% in 2017 World s Top Producers: Brazil, India, EU, Thailand World s Top Consumers: India, China, Brazil, EU Uses: carbonated soft drinks, breweries, sweetener, pastries & confectioneries Global demand slowing - Health consciousness and obesity

4 S U G A R p r o d u c t i o n i n N i g e r i a Total demand: approximately 1mn tonnes Total Output (2016/2017): 70,000 tonnes (0.04% of global output), worth $24.88mn Demand gap: approximately 900,000tonnes 2017/2018 Production Forecast: 80,000 tonnes GLOBAL SUGAR PRICES (Cents/lb) Annual sugar expenditure: Approximately $100mn Three importers: Dangote (1 st ), Golden Sugar (2 nd ) and BUA (3 rd ) 0 Q4'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 *Q1'18 Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, FDC

5 Pow er Gener ation analysis & Impact November 22nd: Average power output sent was 3,884MWh/hour (up 131MWh/h) Gas constraint was 1352MW; line constraint was 354MW; frequency management constraint due to loss of DisCo feeders was 114MW, water management constraint was 150MW Estimated loss: N946mn (annualised at N345.3bn /$959mn) Shiroro Hydro has commenced water management measures to ensure dry season efficiency Gas constraints on the rise 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 Power Generated (on grid) MW/h

6 Price Inelastic Price Elastic D o m e s t i c c o m m o d i t y p r i c e m ov e m e n t Palm Oil (25L) Commodities C U R R E N T P R I C E S ( L A G O S ) CURRENT PRICES N13,000 PREVIOUS PRICES DIRECTIONAL CHANGE Lagos Price 1 year Low 1 year High N13,000 N6,000 N25,000 Semolina(10kg) N1,800 N1,800 N1,800 N3,500 New Yam(small tuber) N400 N400 N400 N900 Tomatoes (50kg) N8,000 N8,000 N8,000 N28,000 Garri (50kg) N10,500 N10,500 N8,000 N16,000 Rice (50kg) N17,000 N15,000 N13,500 N22,000 Flour (50kg) N9,600 N9,600 N8,500 N11,000 Sugar (50kg) N16,000 N16,000 N8,000 N20,000 Beans (Oloyin) (50kg) N27,500 N28,000 N12,000 N34,000 Cement (50kg) N2,500 N2,500 N1,400 N2,700

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8 C o nsumer G o o ds Current P r i c e L a gos GOODS Street price Supermarket price % difference Pepsi (50cl) N100 N90-10% Beer (60cl) N250 N % Bread Loaf N350 N % Indomie (1 carton) N1,900 N2, % Gala (big size) N100 N100 0% Domestic prices remain flat

9 S tock m a r k e t NSE ASI 0.68% to 37,503.73pts Consumer goods sub index 1.25% to pts Share Prices (N) Daily % Change 28 Nov YTD (%) Nestle 1, Honeywell Flourmill Cadbury NB Dangote Sugar Unilever

10 O i l P r i c e s Brent crude 0.49% to $63.53pb Increased US drilling activities weigh on prices US production rises on higher crude prices OPEC meeting to hold in Vienna on Nov. 30 Markets expect OPEC-led supply cut would be extended beyond Mar 18

11 O i l m a r k e ts t o day O I L BRENT 0.49% 11.81% $63.53pb WTI 0.41% 7.73% $57.87pb NATURAL GAS 4.44% 17.74% $3.06MBtu

12 Agric c o m modities Wheat Corn Cocoa Sugar Graphic Design Wheat futures down 0.46% to $4.32/bushel Corn futures down 0.28% to $3.54/bushel Cocoa prices down 0.28% to $2101/mt Sugar prices down 0.06% to $0.1544pound On ample global supplies U.S weekly export sales was in line with trade forecasts at 1.1m tonnes (old and new-crop years combined) Favourable weather in Ivory Coast to improve crop output and quality Due to improved weather in centre-south Brazil

13 O u tlook Oil p r i c e s Prices likely to remain above $60pb ahead of OPEC meeting 33% higher than benchmark oil price for 2018 budget Markets expect positive outcome from meeting OPEC and Russia likely to extend output curbs until the end of 2018

14 O u tlook a gric p r i c e s Grains Expectations of ample U.S output and stockpiles will keep prices suppressed SUGAR Softs Prices will be determined by supply/demand dynamics COCOA Improved weather conditions in Ivory Coast will weigh on prices