Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
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1 Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Vol. 26 January No : (2009) g (, ) ( ; ) Guo TY. Study on the quantitative relationships between regional input fluctuations and economic growth in China. J ournal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,2009,26( 1) :6571,,,, ,,,,,.,,.,,,, F127 1,,.,,,.,.,,, [1,2 ], : (1) [35 ] ; (2) [68 ] ; (3) [912 ].,. 20,,.,,., 3 ( ) ( ) ge2mail ac. cn
2 , [1315 ].,.,,, [15 ],,, [1619 ].,,,,, [1618 ] ;, [20 ].,,,,.,., ,,,,,,.,,,,. [17 ] ,,,,,.,,,,, [17 ].,,,?,., ,,,, [2124 ]., [15 ].,,,. 212, : Y = f ( K,L ; X), (1), Y ; K,L ; X [15,17 ]. (1),,i, [15,17,24,25 ] : y i = k i + 3 l i + 4 x i + i, (2) (2),, y i, k i, l i, x i i ; 1, k ( k = 2, 3, 4) ; i.,, (2)
3 1 : 67 E( i k i, l i, x i ), i.,(2), (2),., (2),(2) (3) [15,17 ] : y i = k i + 3 l i + 4 x i + 5 KI i + 6 XI i + 7 CI i + i, (3) (3), KI, XI, CI i ; i ; i ; (2).,,, (3) ;,,(3) [15,17 ] ,(3),. ( ).,,.,,., , ,,., ,, ,,,, [15,2325 ],(4) : :50 (1999) : ( ). :,,, ;,, ;,,. 6,. :S i = a i X 2 i + b i X i + c i S i = A i e B i X i,, S i i ; a i b i c i A i B i ;e ; X i.
4 68 26 F j i = 1 DF j i T ( S j i, t - S j i, t ) 2 t = 1 gs j i, (4) (4), F j i ( j = 1,2,3) i KI i XI i CI i ; S j i, ts j i, t ( j = 1,2,3) i,gs j i ( j = 1,2,3) i, T, DF j i ( j = 1,2,3) i., DF j i T - 3 ;, DF j i T - 2.,,., : I j i = min ( I j ipoly, I j iexp ), j = 1,2,3 (5) (5) I j i ( j = 1,2,3) i, I j ipoly I j iexp ( j = 1,2,3), i [26,27 ]. 312, (2), (2) (3) (2), i., (OLS) (3). (6) (3) : y i = (31601) k i (51627) l i (11285) x i (11129) KI i ( ) R 2 = 01748, F = XI i ( ) CI i ( ) + i, (6) (6),,, ().,,
5 1 : %. 313,,.,, ;,.,, 1 % %,1 %01279 %, 1 %01183 %,,,.,, 1 % 1 % 1 %01235 % %01239 %,,,.,20 80,,,, ;,,,,,,.,.,,.,, ;,.,,,. 4,,.,.,,,.,,, 75 %, 20,,,, ;,25 %.,,,.,.
6 70 26 [ 1 ] Fleisher B, Chen J. The coastal2noncoastal income gap, productivity, and regional economicpolicy in China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 1997, 25 : [ 2 ] DeMurger S. Economic opening and growth in China. Development Centre Studies. Paris : OECD, 2000 [ 3 ] Jian T, Sachs J, Warner A. Trends in regional inequality in China. China Economic Review, 1996, 7 : 121 [ 4 ] Tsui K. China s regional inequality Journal of Comparative Economics, 1991, 15 : 121 [ 5 ] World Bank. Sharing rising incomes : disparities in China, China 2020 series. Washington DC: World Bank, 1997 [ 6 ] Chen C, Chang L, Zhang Y. The role of foreign direct investment in China s post 1978 economic development. World Development, 1995, 23 : [ 7 ] Li X, Liu XM, Parker D. Foreign direct investment and productivity spillover in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Economic System, 2001, 25 : [ 8 ]., :,1998 [ 9 ] Liu X, Parker D, Vaidya K, et al. The impact of foreign direct investment on labor productivity in the Chinese electronics industry. Business Review, 2001, 10 : International [10 ] Lu DD, Liu Y, Fan J. The regional policy effects and regional development states in china. Acta Geographiva Sinica,1999,54 (6) : (in Chinese),,..,1999,54 : [11 ] Guo TY, Lu DD, Gan GH. Effects of China s opening2up policy on the nation s regional economic development. Acta Geographiva Sinica, 2001, 56 (5) : (in Chinese),,.., 2001, 56 (5) : [12 ] Guo TY, Lu DD, Gan GH. China s regional development policy and its sound effects on the economic development of coastal zones and central & western areas over the past two decades. Geographical Research, 2002, 21 (3) : (in Chinese),,. 20., 2002, 21 (3) : [13 ] Sachs JD, Warner AM. Sources of slow growth in African economies. Journal of African Economies, 1997, 16 : [14 ] Collier P, Gunning J. Explaining African economic performance. Journal of Economic Literature, 1999, 37 : [15 ] Fosu AK. Economic fluctuation and growth in Sub2Saharan Africa : the importance of import instability. Journal of Development Studies, 2001, 37 : 7184 [16 ] Ghura D, Grennes TJ. The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub2Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 1993, 42 : [17 ] Guo TY. Regional exportoriented economic fluctuations and regional growth in China. Journal of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2005, 22 (4) : (in Chinese).., 2005, 22 (4) : [18 ] Easterly W, Levine R. Africa s growth tragedy : policies and ethnic divisions. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1997, 112 : [19 ] Fosu AK. Capital instability and economic growth in Sub2Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Studies, 1991, 28 : 7485 [20 ] Bloom D, Sachs J. Geography, demography, and economic growth in africa. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1998 (2) : [21 ] Helleiner GK. Outward orientation, import instability and African economic growth : an empirical investigation in Lall S. In : Steward F ( Eds). Theory and Reality in Development, London : Macmillan, 1986 [22 ] Glezakos C. Export instability and economic growth : A reply. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1984, 37 : [23 ] MacBean AI. Export instability and economic development. Cambridge, MA : Harvard University Press, 1966 [24 ] Lutz M. The effects of volatility in the terms of trade on output growth : new evidence. [25 ] Maizels A. Exports and economic growth in developing countries. London : Cambridge University Press,1968 World Development, 1994, 22 : [26 ] Ram R. Exports and economic growth : some additional evidences. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1985, 33 : [27 ] Lussier M. Impacts of exports on economic performance : a comparative study. Journal of African Economies, 1993, 2 :
7 1 : 71 Study on the quantitative relationships bet ween regional input fluctuations and economic gro wth in China GUO Teng2Yun ( Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing , China) Abstract Using the extended production function as the analysis framework, an analysis model of regional input factor fluctuations and regional economic growth is constructed. Applying data on regional GDP and its components, labor inputs, exports of 25 provincial regions in China, the fluctuations of capital input ( KI), final consumption ( CI) and exports ( XI) are calculated for every region as the relative standard errors around the respective best2fitted trends during the period These fluctuation measures and the data above2 mentioned are then employed to estimate the analysis model, which controls the effects of capital, labor and exports, and the fluctuations. The estimation result of the analysis model shows that, on one hand, the growth rates of regional capital, labor inputs and exports have positive effects on regional economic growth in China during the period, in which the positive effect of capital input is the most among the three inputs, capital, labor, exports, the one of the labor input is the second to it, the one of exports is the least among the three ; on the other hand, the fluctuations KI, CI and XI have adverse influences on regional economic growth in China during the same period, in which the deleterious effect of XI is the most among the three fluctuations, the one of CI is the second to it, the one of KI is the third to it. This research, in some sense, shows not only the increases of capital input, labor input and exports will aggrandize the regional economic outputs, but also the decreases of the fluctuations of exports, final consumption and capital input will also enhance the regional economic outputs. Key words regional input, input fluctuation, regional growth, quantitative relationship, China
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