Housing Sector Monthly Report February, 2016

Transcription

1 February, 216 The economic- industrial activity and the fixed investment on housing grow. The amount of credits originated by the commercial banks in the last 12 months grew to two-digit figures. The positive expansion trend on housing supply continues Strong rise of edification in January 216 The IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity) annual rate grew 2.3% in January this year. This is the highest level reached in four months, according to original data from the INEGI (National Institute of Statistics and Geography). This behavior derived from the growth of construction (4.6% annual growth) and the acceleration of some services, such as the: real state and personal and intangibles property, and financial and insurances. There was a strong recovery within the construction industry, from -1.4% to 4.6%. Construction improvements were generalized to its main components (edification 6.1%, civil engineering 1.7%, and specialized works 1.2%). The whole Industrial Activity grew 1.1% annual in January 216, while edification grew 6.1% in the same period. The industrial activity starts 216 strengthened by the support of the construction sector, which stimulates the largest monthly growth in edification in the last 9 months. Construction leads the industry recovery as a whole. The Gross Fixed Investmentfor January 216 rose.1%, construction did at a 1.7% annual rate and edification grew 11.9%. What is more, the construction sector business opinion improved in March 216, from 53.8% to 54.4%. (p. 3). The Commercial Banks continue their loan growth trend year-over-year In the last 12 months (February 215 to January 216), the credit allocation through traditional institutions(infonavit, Fovissste and the commercial banks), in conjunction with the funding for individuals loans from the SHF, totaled an investment of trillion pesos. This represents a 4.7% nominal year-over-year growth (February 215 to January 216). The commercial banks originated 8.7 thousand loans in January 216, a 5.6% year-over-year rise. The amount of housing loans originated by the commercial banks in the last 12 months grew 14.9% versus the previous 12 months (p.4). Housing subsidies show steadiness for the period between January and March 216 Subsidiesdisbursed for new housing from January to March 216, had a 3.9% year-overyear investment increase. Hence the investment amount for new housing totaled 1,959 million pesos in the January- March 216 period, versus the 1,885 millions from the same period in 215 (p. 6). The RUV housing registration continued its growth trend during the first two months of the year In February 216, 26.6 thousand homes were registered in the RUV, versus 26.3 thousand in the same month in 215, meaning a 1.1% annual variation. If we take the same period from January to February 216 against the same period in 215, there was a 15% growth. New housing that started construction in February 216 reached a total of 19.4 thousand, versus the 16.4 thousand in February the year before, representing a 18.4% rise (p. 7). The Housing Sector has a dynamic start of the year and grows beyond the whole economy The economic indicators of the housing sector as well as the behavior of subsidies and the general participation of the different actors in the sector, have started the year with a growing trend. In some cases, this reflects the effects of a low comparative basis and a slow start in 215, but confirms that the housing sector has the support to guarantee the continuity of the activity The World Bank assessment of the subsidy program of Conavi According with the World Bank, the subsidy program has had a significant impact on the formal housing supply for homes with income below 5 minimum wages. The impact of this program has resulted in an improvement of the existing housing stock, and a reduction of the informal housing areas. The Funding Access Program for dwelling solutions, operated by Conavi, comprehends the development of different schemes to address different population sectors that require housing solutions, according to their needs.. (p. 11). Subdirección General de Análisis de Vivienda, Prospectiva y Sustentabilidad Pág. 1

2 Housing Financing Figures and Amounts. Table 1.- Individual credit (Cumulative figures, thousand of originations and thousands of pesos, annual % change) Organismo Table 2.- Financing to housing developers. (In billion pesos, % annual change) Var (%) Saldo total de cartera puente Banca Comercial (enero) SHF (enero) Flujo de financiamiento SHF: Colocación Puente (acum. enero) Table 3- Subsidies from Conavi (Cumulative figures, thousands of subsidies and million pesos) Modalidad Enero - Marzo 215 Enero - Marzo 216 Acciones Inversión Acciones Inversión Nueva 33. 1, ,959 Usada Mejoramientos Lotes con servicios... Autoproducción Renta Proyectos Institucionales.. Ejercido , ,64 Table 4- RUV (National Housing Registry) (Cumulative figures thousands of dwellings, % annual change) Ene 215 Ene 216 Var. % Acciones Inversión Acciones Inversión Acciones Inversión Infonavit Crédito Hipotecario Mejoravit 1/ na Fovissste Crédito Hipotecario Respalda2 M 1/ na na Banca comercial 2/ Crédito individual Cofinanciamientos 3/ Mejoramientos na -7.1 Subtotal Mercado Tradicional SHF (Fondeo) 4/ ONAVIs y Banca 5/ Otros intermediarios Fonhapo Otros organismos 6/ Total Financiamientos Viviendas Subtotal Mercado Tradicional 7/ Total 8/ Source: CONAVI with information from each institution CNBV and ABM 1.- Mejoravit and Respalda2 M originated loans are funded by commercial and/ or development banks 2.- Data from CNBV 3.- Includes Cofinavit, Apoyo Infonavit, Alia2 and Respalda2 (Source: Estimated with data from ABM up to September 215) 4.- Includes Infonavit Total and 2do Crédito Infonavit (Source: Estimated with data from ABM up to September 215). ABM no longer records loans in co-participation, as agreed by the banks; however, CNBV still includes these loans as part of their information. 5.- For the first time in the monthly report, the total volume in pesos of loan improvements by commercial banks is included. 6.- Based on the data from funded loans, CONAVI disaggregates this information by housing agencies and other financial entities. This breakdown is not part of the formal definition of SHF. 7.- In 214, SHF extended a line of credit for the acquisition of FOVISSSTE mortgages and another special bank line that amounted to 11.5 billion pesos. 8.- Data up to November. Other agencies include: ISSFAM, the State Housing Agencies, Hábitat de México, Banjercito, CFE and Pemex. 9.- Does not include home improvements. The data is adjusted so that loans in co-financing and co-participation are not double counted. 1.- Includes home improvements. The data is adjusted so that loans in co-financing, co-participation, and for housing agencies and banks with funding from SHF are not double counted. Periodo Registradas Iniciadas Terminadas Vendidas 1/ var (%) var (%) var (%) var (%) Mar - Feb (U12M) Ene - Feb Feb Pág. 2

3 Economic Context Chart 1.- IGAE (Global Indicator of Economic Activity) and construction (Original series, % annual change) Chart 2- Industrial Activity (Original series, %annual change) ene.-13 mar.-13 may.-13 jul.-13 sep.-13 nov.-13 IGAE Construcción Total Construcción Edificación Source: Conavi with information from INEGI Source: Conavi with information from INEGI Chart 3- Construction workers Chart 4- ENEC (National Survey of Construction Companies): Value of production by type of construction (Pesos June 212, % annual change) 5 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Source: Conavi with information from IMSS Chart 5- Business Opinion in the construction sector (Monthly index points) ene.-13 mar.-13 may.-13 jul.-13 sep.-13 nov.-13 mar.-16 1, Trabajadores de la Construcción Source: Conavi with information from INEGI Generación neta anual Edificación Source: Conavi with information from INEGI Chart 6.- Gross Fixed Investment: Construction (Original series, % annual change) Source: Conavi with information from INEGI Vivienda IFB total IFB Total en Construcción Total Residencial Pág. 3

4 Housing Credits In the last 12 months (February 215 to January 216), the loan origination through traditional institutions(infonavit, Fovissste and the commercial banks), in conjunction with the funding for individuals credits from SHF, reached an investment of billion pesos. This is, a nominal growth of 4.7% versus the result of the 12 months the year before (February 214 to January 215). In January 216 Infonavit reached the 34.8 thousand actions. January was the month with a lower number of housing loans from Infonavit in 215. Hence, it is expected to have a rise in the number of actions from this institute, in purchasing of new and used housing predominantly. Chart 7.- Total loans by modality Source: Conavi with information from Infonavit, Fovissste, SHF and CNBV. Note: Figures are adjusted so that loans in co-financing are not double counted. Chart 8.- Infonavit: Loans by modality Nueva Usada Mejoramientos y otros Fovissste originated housing loans for a total amount of 38.7 billion pesos in the last twelve months. The number of loans originated and the total amount in pesos of these loans in January 216 is lower than the number in the same month in 215. The main mortgage loan product originated by Fovissste in this last month was the Traditional for the acquisition, which represented 8.2% of the actions in the month. The commercial banks originated 8.7 thousand credits in January 216, a rise of 5.6% versus the same month in 215. The amount originated by the commercial banks for housing loans in the last two months, rose 14.9% versus the previous 12 months. Of the billion pesos originatedin the last 12 months by the commercial banks, approximately 92 billion pesos correspond to the modality of new home purchase, which means a monthly average of 7.7 billion pesos for this modality. Infonavit, Fovissste and the commercial banks reached a total of 47.8 thousand actions in January 216, and a total amount of 16.5 billion pesos. This means a 2.9% growth in loans versus the same month the previous year. Chart 7a.- Financed amount in pesos by modality (Last 12 months, %) Otros, 1.9 Usada, 26.2 Nueva, 62.9 Total anual: mmdp Var. anual 4.7% Source: CONAVI with information Infonavit, Fovissste, SHF and CNBV Chart 8a.- Infonavit: Amount in pesos by modality (Last 12 months, %) Otros créditos hipotecarios.4 Total anual: mmdp Usada, 37. Nueva, 62.6 Nueva Usada Mejoramientos y otros Source: Conavi with information from Infonavit Source: Conavi with information from Infonavit Var. anual 7.1% Pág. 4

5 Chart 9.- Fovissste: Loans per modality Source: Conavi with information from Fovissste Nueva Usada Mejoramientos y otros Chart 9a.- Fovissste: amounts in pesos by modality (Last 12 months, %) Otros créditos hipotecarios 1.2 Total anual: 38.7 mmdp Usada 39.6 Nueva 59.2 Source: Conavi with information from Fovissste Var. anual -1.1% Chart 1- SHF: Loans by modality Source: Conavi with information from SHF Fondeo Adquisición Mejoramiento y otros Autoproducción 9.7 Chart 1 a.- SHF: Amount in pesos by modality (Last 12 months, %) Autoproducción 3. Adquisición 16.3 Mejoramientos y otros 8.7 Source: Conavi with information from SHF Total anual: 5. mmdp Var. anual -71.9% Chart 11.- Commercial banks: loans by modality Chart 11a.- Commercial banks: Amount in pesos by modality (Last 12 months, %) Nueva Usada Otros Usada 14.4 Otros 19.9 Nueva 65.7 Total anual: mmdp Var. anual 14.9% Source: Conavi with information from CNBV Note: figures include co-financing, liquidity loans and restructured loans) Source: Conavi with information from CNBV Pág. 5

6 Housing Subsidy A total of 33.9 thousand housing subsidies were reached between January and March 216, a total amount of 2,64 million pesos. As for new homes purchases, a total of 1,959 million pesos were originated through 31.4 million actions. In addition, 73 millions were originated for the acquisition of used homes, in 1,2 actions. 1,1 actions were derived for home improvements, with a total of 2.1 million pesos. The rest of the actions and resources went into other social programs. Subsidies disbursed for the period comprised between January and March 216, rose the investment for new homes 3.9%, year-over-year. The investment for new homes in this period totaled 1,959 millions versus 1,885 in the same period of 215. Subsidies for new homes represented 94.9% of the subsides total amount for the first trimester this year. Furthermore, used homes contributed with 3.6%, improvements with 1% and self-production.6%. As for subsidies according to income level, 66% corresponded to up to 2.6 times the minimum wage, 28.1% to 2.6 to 4. times, and 5.2% to 4 to 5 times the minimum wage. Regarding gender distribution, there was a 62.7% male and the resting 37.7% were for women. In terms of age, subsidies were distributed as follows: 54.5% between 3 and 6 years old, 45% for bellow 3 years old, and.5% older than 6. Chart 12.- Disbursment of housing subsidy (Billion pesos) Chart 12 a.- Housing subsidy by modality (% of the amount in pesos) Vivienda Usada 3.6 Mejoramiento 1. Autoproducción mar.-16 Vivienda Nueva, 94.9 Source: Conavi Source: Conavi Chart 12 b.- Distribution of subsidies by income, gender and age. (% number of subsidies) Mujer Hombre, de a 2.6 vsm de 2.6 a 4 vsm de 4 a 5 vsm Source: Conavi Menor de 3 De 3 a 6 Mayor de 6 Pág. 6

7 Housing Supply When comparing the period from January to February 216 to the first two months of the year before, there is a 15.% rise in the number of homes registered. The average of registries in the last 12 months (March 215 to February 216), reached a total of 29.8 thousand dwellings, falling behind the 33.8 thousand registry monthly average from March 214 to February 215. The housing inventory reached in February 216, thousand homes, versus 57.2 thousand in the same month in 215; representing an 8.3% annual variation. Dwellings that started the construction process in February 216 reached the 19.4 thousand units, compared to the16.4 thousand the same month in 215: a growth of 18.4%. Table 5.- Housing inventory by progress situation (Thousands of dwellings) While inventories by urban containment perimeters improved to February 216 versus 215, having a larger number of homes in U1: there were 37. thousand in February 215 and in February 216, there were 42.5 thousand, an annual growth of 14.8%. Interurban dwellings, comprising those located in the U1 and U2 perimeters, remained above 35% (although in February 216 it represented 36.1 of the inventory). Regarding the inventory by type, the most significant rise was registered in the traditional segment (above 21 and below 35 times the minimum wage), which grew from thousand to thousand units in a year, a raise of 19.9 thousand units or an annual growth of 14.4%. This rise reflects on the larger participation of this segment in the total inventory. In February 216 it represented 28.8% of the inventory. Chart 13.- Inventory maturation time (Days) Situación Viviendas Variación feb-15 feb-16 dif. % Terminada Mayor 5 Meses Menor 5 Meses En Proceso Sin Avance Sin Reporte Total Source: Conavi with information from the RUV Preparación Construcción Venta and housing agencies Chart 14.- Inventory by Urban Contention Perimeters (% of dwellings to February) U1 U2 U3 FC ND Chart 15.- Inventory by typology (value) (% of dwellings to February) Ecónomica (<= 118 vsm) Popular (<= 2 vsm) Tradicional (<= 35 vsm) Media-Residencial (> 35 vsm) Pág. 7

8 Chart 16- Registration of dwellings in RUV (Thousands of units) Chart 17.- Pre-construction inspection of dwellings (Thousands of units) Chart 18.- Completed dwellings (Thousands of units) Chart 19.- Sold Housing with financing from housing agencies (Thousands of units) Chart 2.- Housing by constructed surface (% registrarionsin the year) Chart 21.- Housing by type of building (% registrations in the year) Menor a 45 m2 De 45. a 6 m2 Mayor 6 m2 Vertical 216 Horizontal Fuente: Conavi con información de RUV Fuente: Conavi con información de RUV Pág. 8

9 Residential Construction Financing The balance of the bridge loan portfolio of the commercial banks in conjunction with SHF reached a total amount of 63.7 billion pesos to January 216, with a year-over-year growth of 11.7%, 6.7 billion pesos. The balance of the bridge loan portfolio of the commercial banks for residential edification reached 49.3 billion pesos in January 216, a 5.7% growth versus the same month in 215. In January 216, the commercial banks non-performing bridge loan portfolio represented 1.1% of the total, a larger percentage than in December 215, but one of the lowest levels in the last three years. For the first time, the balance of the bridge loan portfolio of SHF exceeded the 14 billion pesos, rising to 14.4 billion pesos in January 216, a 38.6% higher than the same month in 215. The SHF allocation of bridge loans for construction in January 216, totaled 1.3 billion pesos, close to Chart 22.- Bridge loan portfolio balance (Billion pesos) the monthly average of allocations in 215. Loan originations for residential construction from the commercial banks totaled 4.9 billion pesos in January 216; very close to the amount reached in February the year before, and 15.8% above January 215. The present financial environment, with high volatility and interest rates that are slowly recovering a rising trend, it is important for the industry to consider other funding mechanisms, such as debt emission and raising capital in the stock market. Some institutions in the housing sector are already doing so, and in the last months (between the end of 215 and beginning of 216), three of the main housing developers have leaned toward this path. Chart 23.- Loan originations for residential construction Banca Comercial SHF Source: Conavi with information from CNBV and SHF Chart 24.- Financing terms for residential construction (Average rate, %) Source: Conavi with information from de CNBV Chart 25.- SHF: Bridge loan originations (Billion pesos) Ene 215 Ene 216 Tasa a desarrolladores TIIE (eje derecho) Source: CONAVI with information from de CNBV and the Mexican Central Bank Note: Average rate wighted by the amount of marginal dispositions of each bank Arrendamiento Tradicional Sindicado Source: Conavi with information from de SHF Due to rounding, numbers presented may not add up precisely to the totals provided. Pág. 9

10 Inventory maturity time A year ago we started including the measurements of maturity of the housing inventory in the monthly report. This was made possible through the information exchanges attained by Conavi with the International Housing Entities, which had data at the CUV level (Housing Unique Key), allowed the cross-reference of registrations with the RUV. Up to date, we have information for the 8 quarters of 214 and 215. These two years show a nation-wide reduction of the total time of displacement that aims towards a greater efficiency. Construction represents more than half of the time from the inventory maturity times. In the first two quarters of 214, the average construction time was of approximately 8 months. For the last quarter of 215, the average dropped to 7.5 months (226 days), a reduction of approximately two weeks. Reducing construction times implies lower Chart 26.- Maturity times (Days, national average) costs for the housing developer (assuming no change to the cost of construction per day). As for the dwellings sold in the last quarter of 215, the selling stage (time between the end of the construction process and the home sale) was of 19 days in average, a 19-day decline versus the average in the first quarter of 214. With respect to the total maturity time of the housing inventory, the average in the last quarter of 215 was slightly above 14 months (423 days), a reduction of approximately one month and a half versus the 469-day average in the first quarter of 214. Chart 26a.- Selling times (Days, national average) T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 Preparación Construcción Venta and housing agencies Chart 26b.- Preparation times* (Days, national average) and housing agencies Chart 26c.- Construction times (Days, national average) T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 and housing agencies *The preparation stage starts with the RUV registration and ends with the beginning of the verification of the dwelling 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 1T15 2T15 3T15 4T15 and housing agencies Pág.1

11 World Bank assessment of the subsidy program from Conavi The World Bank recently did an assessment to the subsidy program operated by Conavi. One of the conclusions from this study is that the subsidy program to the housing demand has had a significant impact in the formal housing supply, accessible to homes with income below 5 minimum wages. Something noticeable is that Conavi disburses subsidies to beneficiaries with very low income (the lowest incomes are of 1.5 minimum wages). One of the impacts this program has had is reflected in an improvement of the existing housing stock and a reduction of the areas of informal housing. International evidence shows that demand-oriented housing subsidies are the most efficient; understanding such subsidies as the transference to a home with the specific purpose of increasing its disposition and capability to consume a better dwelling. Generally speaking, the housing subsidy to demand is more efficient since the beneficiary decides what is more convenient: purchasing, renting, or home improvements. This assessment the World Bank also includes a section for recommendations. This implies, in broad terms, the diversification of housing solutions and the creation of more flexibility in the program to be able to respond to the particular needs in the different urban zones in Mexico and the diverse socioeconomic situations in the country. The housing subsidy program from Conavi includes support to new home purchases, which generally speaking goes hand in hand with the expansion of new housing developments. It also includes support to the used home acquisition, which are homes acquired in a second or later transmission. To qualify for a subsidy, one must meet sustainability guidelines, criteria and parameters established by the regulatory authorities. Other important modalities of subsidies are: housing self-production or self-construction, where the dwelling design and construction are under the direct control of the applicant, individually or collectively. Besides, there must be a Construction Entity linked to the project development. The housing improvement is the action aimed to consolidate or renew housing physically or functionally deteriorated, through reparations, structural reinforcements or rehabilitation activities to provide dignified, decent and sustainable housing. Housing extensions consist in the expansion of the constructed surface of the dwelling. This implies the addition of at least one kitchen, restroom or dormitory. There is great to stimulate the housing rental market development and consolidation. Therefore, Conavi in conjunction with other entities, has designed and developed diverse schemes to enlarge the housing supply in this modality. The main schemes are: The subsidy rental program for the Army Forces, the subsidy rental program for Agriculture Day Laborers, and the rental subsidy program for Infonavit and Fovissste beneficiaries. There are other schemes as well, focused on some vulnerable sectors of the population. For example, within the self-production modality and the one for beneficiaries with incomes up to 5 minimum wages. There is also the housing program for the young (people between 18 and 29 years old who already have a family) and the housing scheme for female heads of household. A pilot guarantee to first loss program was implemented as a complement to a housing improvement and enlargement credit for Infonavit and Fovissste beneficiaries, with income of up to 5 minimum wages. This program covers the risk of failure to fulfill the payment of such loans. Likewise, Conavi developed programs for housing acquisition to encourage the green housing market in sustainable urban developments and to promote city densification, in order to take advantage of the existing infrastructure. Besides, there are other initiatives from Conavi, like the housing self-production for immigrants residing in the United States, and others in which it has contributed in the development of mortgages to the benefit of senior citizens. This examples prove that Conavi develops and applies different schemes to address the divers sectors of the population that require housing solutions, according to their needs. Pág.11