Banking Flash Mexico. Economic Analysis November 30th, 2011

Transcription

1 Economic Analysis November th, 1 Banking Flash Mexico Bank loans to the private sector: continue to grow at high rates and accumulate 1 months of continued growth In October 1 bank loans granted to the private sector registered an annual nominal rate of growth of 14.2%. This rate was lower than the one of the previous month (.7%) and higher than the one of the same month of (8.%). Consumption loans were the category that grew at the highest nominal annual rate, which was of.8%. This rate was higher than the one of the previous month (.2%) and it was also higher than the one of the same month of (2.7%). Its most dynamic component was Other, which grew 4.% and includes payroll loans. In second and third positions grew Credit Card Loans (1.8%) and Consumer Durables Loans (8.2%). The nominal rate of growth of loans to firms was.4%. In the previous month this rate was higher (.2%) and in the same month of it was lower (.2%). The lower rate of growth of this loan category in October in comparison to the one of September or in relation to the average rate of the third quarter 1 (14.%) could be starting to reflect the expected lower rate of growth of GDP for the last quarter of 1. The nominal rate of growth of housing loans was 8.%, and this rate was higher that the one of the previous month (8.2%) and it was also lower that the one of the same month of (.8%). From anuary to October 1 the rate of growth of this loan category has been stable and has averaged 8.1%. It is possible that the lower growth rate that housing loans registered in 1 in relation to the one of is a consequence of anticipated amortizations. These prepayments reduce more than expected the outstanding balance of this loan category, which also decreases the annual rate of growth of this loan category. GDP and employment growth influence the rate of growth of the demand of all bank loan categories and, under the base scenario of BBVA Research, it can be said that the dynamism of bank loans will continue during the following months. Graph Graph 2 Bank Loans to: Consumption, Housing and Firms Source: BBVA Research with data of Bank of Mexico Vivienda Consumo Empresas Source: BBVA Research with data of Bank of Mexico Fco. avier Morales E. Fj.morales@bbva.bancomer.com fj Av. Universidad, Col. Xoco, México D.F. researchmexico@bbva.bancomer.com Follow us on Twitter Disclaimer This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research and BBVA Bancomer S. A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer on behalf of itself and is provided for information purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document are based upon information available to the public that has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable. However, such information has not been independently verified by BBVA Bancomer, and therefore no warranty, either express or implicit, is given regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities.

2 Banking Flash Mexico November th, 1 Economic Research Credit: graphs and statistics Fco. avier Morales E. fj.morales@bbva.bcomer.com In October 1 the annual nominal rate of growth of total bank loans to the private sector was 14.2%. The rates of growth of the main loan categories were: consumption,.8%; firms,.4%; and housing, 8.% All bank loan categories will continue to grow as long as GDP and employment keeps on growing Graph 1 Graph 2 2, 1, 1,8 1,7 1, 1, 1,4 1, 1,2 1,1 1, Graph I Graph 4 Graph Graph I-11

3 November, 1 Graph 7 Graph 8 Graph M S M S M S 7 M S 8 M S M S 1 M S 11 M S I-11 Graph M S M S M S 7 M S 8 M S M S 1 M S 11 M S Graph Graph I-11 Graph 1 Graph 14 Graph Bancario / Banking ,, 4, 4,,, 2, 2, 1, 1, Bancario / Banking,17,1 1, Bancario / Banking IV IV 7 IV IV 1 IV IV IV 7 IV 8 IV IV 1 II-11 IV 4 IV IV 8 IV IV 2 IV 4 IV IV 7 IV 8 IV- IV-1 II-11 IV 4 IV 8 IV IV 1 IV 2 IV IV 4 IV IV IV 7 IV 8 IV- IV-1 II-11 Page

4 November, 1 BANCA COMERCIAL: CRÉDITO VIGENTE AL SECTOR PRIVADO NO BANCARIO / COMMERCIAL BANKS: PERFROMING LOANS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR Saldos mmp Octubre-11 / Balance in October 1 billion pesos Var % anual real / Annual real growth rate Saldos mmp corrientes / Balance in current billion pesos Var % anual nominal / Nominal annual rate of growth, % Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumo / Vivienda / Empresas / IFNB * / Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking Consumption Housing Firns Non Banking IV 4 2, ,41 1 Nd Nd Nd Nd Nd IV Nd Nd Nd Nd Nd IV 1, 1, IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 1, IV IV 1, IV 1, IV 7 1, IV 7 1, IV 8 1, IV 8 1, IV 1, IV 1, IV 1 1, IV 1 1, I-11 1, I-11 1, II-11 1, II-11 1, Saldos mmp Octubre-11 / Balance in October 1 billion pesos Var % anual real / Annual real growth rate Saldos mmp corrientes / Balance in current billion pesos Var % anual nominal / Nominal annual rate of growth, % 2 1, , F 1, F 1, M 1, M 1, A 1, A 1, M 1, M 1, , , , , A 1, A 1, S 1, S 1, O 1, O 1, N 1, N 1, D 1, D 1, , , F 1, F 1, M 1, M 1, A 1, A 1, M 1, M 1, , , , , A 1, A 1, S 1, S 1, O 1, O 1, N 1, N 1, D 1, D 1, , , F 1, F 1, M 1, M 1, A 1, A 1, M 1, M 1, , , , , , A 1, , A 1, , S 1, 4 8 1, S 1, , O 1, , O 1, , Crédito al Sector Privado / Loans to the Private Sector Crédito Sector Privado / Loans to the Private Sector Proporción del PIB / Ratio of GDP, % Estructura del saldo / Percentage structure, % Aportación al crecimiento / Contribution to growth Saldo promedio anual real / Average annual balance IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV 1, IV IV IV 7 1, IV IV IV 8 1, IV IV IV- 1, IV IV IV-1 1,7 1 IV IV Tasas de crecimiento reales promedio anual / IV IV Annual average real rates of growth IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I I II II II Page 4

5 November, 1 CREDITO BANCARIO Y NO BANCARIO AL SECTOR PRIVADO / BANK AND NON BANK FINANCE TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR Versión Amplia de Financiamiento no Bancario (Consumo y Empresas) / Broad version of non banking finance Saldos mmp de Octubre-11 / Balance in October 1 billion pesos Saldos en mmp corrientes / Outstanding balance in current billion pesos Consumo / Consumption Vivienda / Housing Empresas / Firms Consumo / Consumption Vivienda / Housing Empresas / Firms Bancario** No Bancario ** Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario Bancario No Bancario IV 4,141,11 2, ,14 2, 1,7 IV IV 4,44 2,81 1, ,2 1,87 1, IV 1, , 487 IV,848 2,228 1, ,28 1, 1, IV 1, ,1 1 IV 7, 2,2 1, , 1, 1, IV 7 1, ,17 7 IV 8, 1, 1, ,4 1,1 1,4 IV 8 1, , IV,14 1,42 1, ,4 4 1,4 IV 1, , 4 77 IV,2 1,22 2, , ,74 IV 2, 7 1, ,7 14 1, IV 1, 1,4 2, , 4 1, IV 1 2,2 8 1, ,4 4 1,8 IV 2, 1,7 2, , 2 1,4 IV 2 2,2 7 1, ,7 42 1,11 IV,7 72 2, , 1, IV 2,44 7 1, , ,2 IV 4,7 1, 2, ,87 1,74 IV 4 2, , ,82 4 1,7 IV,84 1,14 2, ,41 7 1,84 IV,2 2 2, ,4 42 1,42 IV,4 1,4 2,4 48 1, , 71 1, IV, 1,17 2, , , IV 7 4,87 1,71 2, , , ,847 IV 7, 1,1 2, , , ,74 IV 8,17 1,887, ,2 8, 2,7 IV 8 4, 1,71 2, , ,1 7 2,4 IV- 4, 1,8, ,4 78 8,11 1,2 2, IV- 4, 1, 2,17 8 1, ,1 42 1,74 IV-1,2 1,88, , 4 84,1 1, 2,1 IV-1 4, 1,81, , 877, 1,41 2,1 I-11,1 1,, ,42 44,47 1,88 2,1 I-11, 1,, ,2 41 1,7 1,7 2, II-11,8 1,7, ,8 4 8, 1,14 2,1 II-11,17 1,48, ,2 4, 1,87 2, Tasa de crecimiento real anual / Annual real rate of growth, % Tasa de Crecimiento Nominal Anual / Nominal annual growth rate, % IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I II II Estructura Porcentual del Saldo / Percentage structure of balance, % Proporción del PIB / IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV IV I I II II * Bancario: incluye banca de desarrollo y banca comercial tanto cartera vigente como vencida y reestructurada; No Bancario incluye financiamiento proveniente del exterior, el otorgado por intermediarios financieros no bancarios (IFNB) del país, proveedores, emisión de deuda interna, el concedido por empresas no financieras que tienen su propia tarjeta y el Infonavit y Fovissste. * Banking: includes total loan protfolio (performing + non performing) of commercial and development banks; Non Banking includes all non bankig domestic intermediaries, domestic issuing of debt by firms, foreing finance granted to Mexican companies, trade credit financing, financing granted by department stores for consumer loans and housing loans granted by official housing agencies. ** Bancario = Banking ; No Bancario = Non Banking Fuente / Source: Banco de México e INEGI / Bank of mexico and INEGI Disclaimer This document was prepared by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria s (BBVA) BBVA Research and BBVA Bancomer S. A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero BBVA Bancomer on behalf of itself and is provided for information purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein refer to the specific date and are subject to changes without notice due to market fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document are based upon information available to the public that has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable. However, such information has not been independently verified by BBVA Bancomer, and therefore no warranty, either express or implicit, is given regarding its accuracy, integrity or correctness. This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to acquire or dispose of an interest in securities. Page